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Marquette
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Marquette vs

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Date/Time: Mar 29, 2024, 6:09 pm
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Author Topic: [Cracked Sidewalks] MU must beat Wisconsin, go 11-7 in Big East, win a tournament game to get to RPI of 53  (Read 14586 times)

CrackedSidewalks

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MU must beat Wisconsin, go 11-7 in Big East, win a tournament game to get to RPI of 53

Despite the big wins in New York, RPI Forecast gives MU less than a 10% chance to go 23-10, which is what it would take to get MU to an RPI of 53 and trip to the NCAA.

According to RPI Forecast and the pure Wins and Losses at www.kenpom.com, MU should finish the regular season 16-15 with an RPI of 177. The good news is this is based on results during which Henry Ellenson's Value Add has been just 0.4 due to his first three games including 12 of 35 shooting and 10 turnovers. The good news is that if Ellenson keeps building on strong play in New York and gets to his projected 7.4 Value Add for the year, that 7-point improvement would tip seven additional wins for Marquette based on www.kenpom.com projected scores to finish 23-8 before the Big East tournament and make the NCAA tournament.

So there is hope as Marquette fans go into the Thanksgiving Weekend very thankful for two exciting and huge wins in New York this week against #22 LSU and Arizona State, as the team won praise by many including Reid Forgrave of Fox Sports.

Unfortunately due to the RPI hit Marquette will take for all the upcoming games against terrible teams, it appears Marquette would need to win all remaining non-conference games including an upset at Wisconsin, go 11-7 in conference and then win a 4th place-5th place Big East tournament game to finish with an RPI of 53 and sneak into the tournament.

That means it would take a 23-10 record to get an NCAA bid - even one more loss to drop to 22-11 plummets Marquette to 69th in RPI based on the RPI Forecast calculator.



Traci Carter's EXCELLENT play that has put him among assists leaders at www.kenpom.com and helped Duane Wilson, Luke Fischer and Haanif Cheatham combine to hit more than 2/3rds of their two-point shots. However, he will be going up against the toughest conference for a point guard - and an 11-7 mark for a team with a freshman point guard looks tough.

However, there is hope. The good news is young teams improve more during the season than other teams, and as the 10th least experience team in the country, MU has a great ceiling. So far the team is the WORST three-point shooting team of the 77 teams in the top six conferences, and MU is the 8th worst at turning the ball over. Assuming Henry Ellenson and Duane Wilson find their three-point stroke and the young team learns to protect the ball moderately well, the team would make a huge stride forward and the 23-10 record represented above would be possible.

In addition to the Fox Sports praise, a second basketball expert (Rob Dauster of NBC Sports) recently called MU one of the most underachieving team in the opening few games and saw the combination of the twin towers and talented guards as enough to rank MU 23rd in the nation in June.

So far only Luke Fischer has played up to expectations based on www.valueaddbasketball.com. He projected to be worth about 3.56 additional points a game, through the team's terrible first three games he was almost there at 3.19, and in the two wins in New York he was right at the 3.56 projection to raise his season total to date to 3.40 - in the top 10% (top 400) of all players.

Beyond Ellenson, other huge improvements from Duane Wilson and others are possible - as well as he is harassing opponents and getting to the rim, if his three-pointer and even free throws start to drop at all the defenses will spread and give MU a shot to be truly great.

Here are the projections for each players (Replacement Level indicates most players were playing no better than a solid replacement player would have been expected to play), followed by where they ranked through the 1-2 start and where they rank now. The start was very bad, the improvement was very dramatic, and the ceiling is high enough to potentially sneak into the tournament - but the margin of error is very small.


PlayerProjectionWhen 1-2NowNBA%
Fischer, Luke 403.56 (458th)3.19 (438th)3.40 (397th)
Cohen, Sandy 52.53 (796th)1.28 (1678th)0.58 (1678th)
Ellenson, Henry 137.40 (58th)ReplacemLevel0.42 (1873rd)91%
Johnson, JaJuan 232.87 (655th)ReplacemLevel0.37 (1936th)2%
Anim, Sacar 21.20 (1623rd)ReplacemLevel0.35 (1941st)
Ellenson, Wally 22ReplacemLevelReplacemLevel0.10 (2365th)
Wilson, Duane 15.27 (192nd)ReplacemLevelReplacemLevel5%
Heldt, Matt 121.00 (1973rd)ReplacemLevelReplacemLevel
Carter, Traci 212.10 (1004th)ReplacemLevelReplacemLevel
Cheatham, Haanif 252.35 (878th)ReplacemLevelReplacemLevel
Marotta, CamReplacemLevelReplacemLevelReplacemLevel

Source: MU must beat Wisconsin, go 11-7 in Big East, win a tournament game to get to RPI of 53

UticaBusBarn

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Good stuff - on turkey and stuffing day! Thank you.

Obviously, the Warriors have a huge up-side. If we all keep our perspective (and sense of humour) while watching the eighth youngest team in the nation play (and, hopefully develop), it should be a really entertaining season.

bamamarquettefan

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agreed! worst case we are back to 1991 with a very talented team of freshmen leading a team that couldn't play .500 - but would eventually go Sweet 16. Best case is very good.
The www.valueaddsports.com analysis of basketball, football and baseball players are intended to neither be too hot or too cold - hundreds immerse themselves in studies of stats not of interest to broader fan bases (too hot), while others still insist on pure observation (too cold).

real chili 83

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John,

Thanks for the info and the great post.

I'm calling it....this team will beat Wisconsin and make the tournament. There is too much untapped talent, and Wojo has their attention

Happy Thanksgiving!

brewcity77

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Nice read, and underscores that 20-21 wins won't be enough for this team. The non-con schedule is an anchor. We'll need to be very good to overcome it and go dancing.
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Jay Bee

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Looks like for your forecast a 4-5 conference road record was assumed.

If you switch out a road win in exchange for another home win, it HELPS us (based on the current assumptions... using different assumptions, it simply depends on the numerator vs. denominator math... i.e., in a losing adjusted win percentage, a home win instead of road win hurts your AWP, a'inal?). But, 7-2 at home is already assumed.. yikes.

Hopefully a couple of the cruddy opponents can win more conference games than expected to help us out.
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wadesworld

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If we finish the non-conference with 3 or less losses and finish 5th or better we are in the Tournament.  I have been saying this since day one, and I expect this to happen.
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JamilJaeJamailJrJuan

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If all these buy game opponents end up as bad as they probably should, this is true. Hopefully those teams outperform their current projections because only 8 losses the rest of the way is a tall task.
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brewcity77

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Looks like for your forecast a 4-5 conference road record was assumed.

If you switch out a road win in exchange for another home win, it HELPS us (based on the current assumptions... using different assumptions, it simply depends on the numerator vs. denominator math... i.e., in a losing adjusted win percentage, a home win instead of road win hurts your AWP, a'inal?). But, 7-2 at home is already assumed.. yikes.

Hopefully a couple of the cruddy opponents can win more conference games than expected to help us out.

That has to be one of the most interesting things about the RPI. Everyone talks about getting road wins, but all things being equal, it almost always seems holding serve at home is more important.

At the end of the day, though, it's really about wins. Which wins and which losses only make a minimal difference. We'll need 22-23 to get in. Having a sub-60 RPI with our SOS just won't do it.
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Galway Eagle

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Out of curiosity couldn't it also be about which wins? I mean is it better to get swept by nova and X and sweep everybody lower or on par with us or is it better to get a win against nova and then split with say Creighton.
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HouWarrior

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This is a great post and analysis...its great how analytics has changed the game.....
BUT...
Darnit...

I read the thread caption and cursed to myself.

 In the old days ....In November.....November....I had NO idea whether my beloved Warriors stood any any NCAA chance...,what it would take to get them in,....whether or where there would be seeded. Every game,week ,month was a mystery ,debatable, emotionally charged roller coaster that only came to head on a nerve wracking Selection Sunday.

I miss this. Ignorance here was blissful fandom. I am thankful for progress, and all the help of analytics....but..... I miss the not knowing or even having any  insight to our prospects other  than some guy at the end of the bar. Ignorant sports banter over drinks at a bar is way more fun and social than "social" media can ever hope to be.....but I know....now...its

Ok , ok...Grandpa stop yelling at the kids to get off your yard, come inside, go sit in your recliner,and have some turkey before the Packers are on TV.

Happy Turkey day Scoopers.
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GooooMarquette

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This is a great post and analysis...its great how analytics has changed the game.....
BUT...
Darnit...

I read the thread caption and cursed to myself.

 In the old days ....In November.....November....I had NO idea whether my beloved Warriors stood any any NCAA chance...,what it would take to get them in,....whether or where there would be seeded. Every game,week ,month was a mystery ,debatable, emotionally charged roller coaster that only came to head on a nerve wracking Selection Sunday.

I miss this. Ignorance here was blissful fandom. I am thankful for progress, and all the help of analytics....but..... I miss the not knowing or even having any  insight to our prospects other  than some guy at the end of the bar. Ignorant sports banter over drinks at a bar is way more fun and social than "social" media can ever hope to be.....but I know....now...its

Ok , ok...Grandpa stop yelling at the kids to get off your yard, come inside, go sit in your recliner,and have some turkey before the Packers are on TV.

Happy Turkey day Scoopers.

Yep.  But we aren't going back to that blissful ignorance.

chapman

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We can hope Grambling's bus breaks down on the way here and the game is cancelled.  That'll bump the RPI up eight spots and the SOS seven spots.  Or maybe the Stetson game will be cancelled due to a snowstorm.

Dr. Blackheart

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Warriors ALWAYS expect a W!

brewcity77

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Out of curiosity couldn't it also be about which wins? I mean is it better to get swept by nova and X and sweep everybody lower or on par with us or is it better to get a win against nova and then split with say Creighton.

Whatever wins you get are balanced by the losses. Go to RPIForecast.com and use the Wizard. Give us whatever combination of wins and losses you like. Then swap a big win with a medium one. Say Villanova for Creighton. Might make a difference of 1-2 points of RPI, but not much. Even change 3 or 4 games and the difference is surprisingly minimal. In general, wins will tell you the RPI, no matter which games they are.
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Jay Bee

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Out of curiosity couldn't it also be about which wins? I mean is it better to get swept by nova and X and sweep everybody lower or on par with us or is it better to get a win against nova and then split with say Creighton.

The RPI calc doesn't care who you beat and who you lose to (directly; however, beating a better opponent instead of a lesser opponent can actually HURT your RPI, depending on component 3 factors). The RPI calc cares only about your wins and losses, adjusted for game location; opponents' win-losses (excluding the game(s) against you); and opponents' opponents' win-losses. That's it.

The selection committee, however, does.
« Last Edit: November 26, 2015, 07:07:49 PM by Jay Bee »
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naginiF

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Thanks for the great analysis that puts the season, and expectations, in perspective.  Two questions: 

1) given that RPI and value add are evolving measures what's a reasonable duration to relook at RPI/VA?  Every month? 

2)  how the hell are we "So far the team is the WORST three-point shooting team of the 77 teams in the top six conferences, and MU is the 8th worst at turning the ball over."...........with three 20+ turnover games the 7 teams behind us must be horrible on their fan base.

bilsu

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It would be close, but I suspect a team with an RPI of 53 has a greater chance of being in the first four out than the last four in.

BM1090

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It would be close, but I suspect a team with an RPI of 53 has a greater chance of being in the first four out than the last four in.

Nah, 53 with 22+ wins and we'd be in.

Lennys Tap

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The RPI calc doesn't care who you beat and who you lose to (directly; however, beating a better opponent instead of a lesser opponent can actually HURT your RPI, depending on component 3 factors). The RPI calc cares only about your wins and losses, adjusted for game location; opponents' win-losses (excluding the game(s) against you); and opponents' opponents' win-losses. That's it.

The selection committee, however, does.

Hate the RPI, glad the committee looks beyond it. Isn't there a better metric (Pomeroy, Sagarin or something else) to use?

ChicosBailBonds

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Unfortunately 53 RPI means we aren't going to the NCAA.   Not very often does an at large team with that RPI go dancing.


MUSF

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Whatever...

Trying to project in November where this team will be in March is nearly pointless. So much bball left to play.

wadesworld

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Unfortunately 53 RPI means we aren't going to the NCAA.   Not very often does an at large team with that RPI go dancing.

Not very often does the 5th place team from the Big East miss the Tourney.  In fact, that never happens.  The Big East will not be putting 4 or less teams into the NCAA Tournament, especially with the non-conference success, as a whole, that the conference is having.  And the 6th place team won't get into the NCAA Tournament ahead of the 5th place team unless it was a tie for 5th and the "6th" place team had a far better non-conference portion of their schedule.

I've said it over and over and over.  Our schedule will not be what keeps us out of the tournament.
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mubb3434

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The Big East may have 4 ranked teams next week...If we finish 5th in Big East Play, I would like to think that we would be dancing...Big opportunity for Villanova and Providence coming up to help put us on the map. ( Arizona, Oklahoma, Virginia)

Juan Anderson's Mixtape

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Unfortunately 53 RPI means we aren't going to the NCAA.   Not very often does an at large team with that RPI go dancing.

Last year alone: Purdue 55, LSU 58, Ole Miss 60, Indiana 61 all made the Dance with an RPI below 53.  Ole Miss was the only one of those teams that played in the first 4.  The rest were either a 9 or 10 seed.  Power conference teams get a better deal than mid-majors like Dayton (RPI 33) who play in the first four or go to the NIT.  As long as the BE is a top 6 conference, MU can get in with an RPI of 53.  Not a guarantee but definitely possible.

 

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