Somewhat informed minutes distribution discussion

[mu03eng]

One thing I've definitely changed my mind on:  The starting line-up at the beginning of the season will be the same one at the end of the season (barring injury/transfer).  I thought it was going to take a little time to give the reigns to The Engine, but he will start at the point from day 1

[mug644]

I'm breaking guys down into three categories:

The Mainstays

• Duane Wilson: 32
• Luke Fischer: 32
• Henry Ellenson: 30

.
Supporting Cast

• Sandy Cohen: 24
• Traci Carter: 23
• Jajuan Johnson: 20
• Haanif Cheatham: 15

.
True Bench

• Wally Ellenson: 10
• Sacar Anim: 8
• Matt Heldt: 6

.
Traci and Sandy round out the starting lineup, with Jajuan and Cheatham being the primary guys off the bench. Jajuan mostly covers 2-4, Cheatham 1-3. Ellenson and Anim get spot minutes, but I expect both would have games where they make an impact. Wojo would have the ability to run the hot hand and for those four, I could see almost any division of minutes totaling 50-60. Heldt just gets in to give Henry and Luke breaks as needed, with Henry being the more likely second option at the 5 in critical moments.[/list]

I like this overall. I think Haanif is an unknown, and that Sacar might force his way into more minutes, but generally this makes sense.

[brewcity77]

That looks pretty spot on.  I'm a little up in the air about the 4-5.  You have 68 of the 80 minutes accounted for among the Big 3.  I guess I'll reserve judgement on how those other 12 get covered.  If we're saying that essentially all of Sacar's work this year is at the #4....  But I think you're real close.  And I agree 100% with your logical groupings.

As far as the 4-5, I'd guess...

Center: 32 minutes Fischer, 6 minutes Heldt, 2 minutes Henry
Power Forward: 28 minutes Henry, 6 minutes Sandy, 4 minutes Anim, 2 minutes Jajaun/Wally

I know that Jajuan/Wally aren't fours, but I feel they'll log some sort of minutes there by necessity. I also think this could shift in important games with Heldt getting fewer minutes and Henry playing more at the 5. These are also my expectations for season averages. Once Big East play rolls around, I think we'll see more of Fischer, Henry, and Duane, and less of Heldt and Anim.

In critical games when Luke is in foul trouble, I could see extended runs of Carter/Duane/Jajuan/Sandy/Henry. I think Cohen's new frame and length makes him a good candidate to be an undersized 4 at times. We have plenty of guys that can fill in behind him at the three when he has to slide down low.

[mu03eng]

Some is going to come down to match-ups.  Ironic given the coaching change, but this team is the most adaptable (one could say switchable I suppose) of any MU team I can remember.

With the Luke is running the floor right now, I could even see(assuming no foul trouble) a time or two where we go Duane, Sandy, Henry, Luke, Heldt and drive a team nuts with our length and athleticism.

[brewcity77]

Some is going to come down to match-ups.  Ironic given the coaching change, but this team is the most adaptable (one could say switchable I suppose) of any MU team I can remember.

With the Luke is running the floor right now, I could even see(assuming no foul trouble) a time or two where we go Duane, Sandy, Henry, Luke, Heldt and drive a team nuts with our length and athleticism.

While some teams could really exploit that lineup, it could be brutal to others. Butler comes to mind as a team that just doesn't have the length or quickness to really counteract that kind of lineup.

[mu03eng]

While some teams could really exploit that lineup, it could be brutal to others. Butler comes to mind as a team that just doesn't have the length or quickness to really counteract that kind of lineup.

Yep, this will be the season to determine if Wojo is a great coach or a great recruiter who's ok at coaching.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I'm confident you're now prepared to 'revise and extend your remarks'.   

Average starting C of Luke's sizei n ncaa gets between 22-24 minutes a game due to fatigue and foul trouble. Luke is great but will have limitations. It might be a low prediction. Wouldn't be surprised if I was wrong

Also, this team wants to run. Wojo will utilize a lot of subs to keep the team fresh. Starters won't average more than 32

[MUBBesota]

I'm not convinced that Hannif will be playing the point as much as some posters think. I think Hannif playing the 1 came about because of uncertainties about Carter. With Carter's strong showing in Italy, I see Hannif moving back to his natural position on the wing.

[jsglow]

What are you trying to cause my schedule angst to flair up again??? 

Ha.  We beat that one to death, hey?  Just remember eng, chick makes me go regardless of the opponent most times.  And BC ain't down the street.

[MuMark]

Luke averaged 29 minutes last year......I would expect that to  go up slightly.

No way he averages only 24-26 minutes unless he isn't healthy or has trouble staying out of foul trouble.

[ChitownSpaceForRent]

Luke averaged 29 minutes last year......I would expect that to  go up slightly.

No way he averages only 24-26 minutes unless he isn't healthy or has trouble staying out of foul trouble.

It's really nice mot to see Luke grab at his shoulder after every play.

[jsglow]

As far as the 4-5, I'd guess...

Center: 32 minutes Fischer, 6 minutes Heldt, 2 minutes Henry
Power Forward: 28 minutes Henry, 6 minutes Sandy, 4 minutes Anim, 2 minutes Jajaun/Wally

I know that Jajuan/Wally aren't fours, but I feel they'll log some sort of minutes there by necessity. I also think this could shift in important games with Heldt getting fewer minutes and Henry playing more at the 5. These are also my expectations for season averages. Once Big East play rolls around, I think we'll see more of Fischer, Henry, and Duane, and less of Heldt and Anim.

In critical games when Luke is in foul trouble, I could see extended runs of Carter/Duane/Jajuan/Sandy/Henry. I think Cohen's new frame and length makes him a good candidate to be an undersized 4 at times. We have plenty of guys that can fill in behind him at the three when he has to slide down low.

Agree.  I've thought more than once over these last 4 games that Sandy has a little bit of Juan in him.  Better shooter but some of the same qualities.  I think he can board and can play a little stretch 4 in a pinch.

[brewcity77]

Luke averaged 29 minutes last year......I would expect that to  go up slightly.

No way he averages only 24-26 minutes unless he isn't healthy or has trouble staying out of foul trouble.

That was my first thought. Luke is fairly trim and able to run. He'll be able to play more than the average 6'11", 240-pound center. I think 30-32 is most likely, barring injury or foul trouble.

Agree.  I've thought more than once over these last 4 games that Sandy has a little bit of Juan in him.  Better shooter but some of the same qualities.  I think he can board and can play a little stretch 4 in a pinch.

I like that comparison. Was thinking that a bit last year, it really looked like Sandy had the same kind of motor Juan does, but just wasn't nearly as refined (not saying Juan was refined, more that Sandy just really wasn't). If he can be Juan with a shooting touch, especially if he is already getting to the point Juan was at as an upperclassman, he will be a very good player for us.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Luke averaged 29 minutes last year......I would expect that to  go up slightly.

No way he averages only 24-26 minutes unless he isn't healthy or has trouble staying out of foul trouble.

Dang, I really thought he was around 24 minutes a game last year for some reason. Didn't even look. That's impressive for a kid with a bum shoulder. I'll rework my minutes distribution guess then.

1: Traci 23 Haanif 17
2: Duane 30, JjJ 10
3: Sandy 17,Wally 12, JjJ 11
4: Henry 23, Sacar 12, Sandy 5
5: Luke 29, Henry 6, Heldt 5

The distribution at each position won't be this nice and neat, but that's what I envision.

That gets us to totals of:
Duane 30
Luke 29
Henry 29
Traci 23
Sandy 22
JjJ 21
Haanif 17
Sacar 12
Wally 12
Heldt 5

I think we will go 10 deep for most of the season. But Heldt may not get into some games if Luke and Henry manage to stay out of foul trouble.

[tower912]

I just hope that Wojo has them pushing the ball and extending the defense once the season starts.   All 10 will play then, probably even #'s 9-10 getting around 10 mpg.   My favorite kind of ball to watch.....assuming MU can shoot. 

[Herman Cain]

I think we need to see Haanif in action. Tracy looked good but remember the competition was very weak. For now I say they will split time.

Duane , Luke and Henry will play max minutes.

Sandy and JJJ will be a function of who is hot.

Wally, Sacar, Heldt will share the remainder.

So My Breakdown is

Duane 30
Luke    30
Henry   30

Sandy 23
JJJ      23

Traci  20
Haanif 20

Wally  8
Sacar 8
Matt   8

[jsglow]

I like that comparison. Was thinking that a bit last year, it really looked like Sandy had the same kind of motor Juan does, but just wasn't nearly as refined (not saying Juan was refined, more that Sandy just really wasn't). If he can be Juan with a shooting touch, especially if he is already getting to the point Juan was at as an upperclassman, he will be a very good player for us.

I think Sandy has the potential ability to be 'Senior year Juan' albeit with a better shooting touch this year.  If (and that's a big if) he can do that we're going to be very good. 

Let's start to think about this for a second.  I'm certainly no expert on the conference but some of you are.  Luke is a top 25% center.  Heck, could he be the best in the conference already?  Henry will absolutely be a top 25% PF and is NBA bound eventually.  Duane is at least top 50% at the 2 guard.  Traci is a potentially emerging point who will be better in March than he is now.  And Sandy might be Juan/Trent level as a Sophomore with a shot to boot.  That team wins 10 conference games and dances.  I truly believe it.

[bilsu]

Does biometrics have an effect on playing time? Now the coaches will know you are tired before you appear to be tired.

[brewcity77]

I think Sandy has the potential ability to be 'Senior year Juan' albeit with a better shooting touch this year.  If (and that's a big if) he can do that we're going to be very good. 

Let's start to think about this for a second.  I'm certainly no expert on the conference but some of you are.  Luke is a top 25% center.  Heck, could he be the best in the conference already?  Henry will absolutely be a top 25% PF and is NBA bound eventually.  Duane is at least top 50% at the 2 guard.  Traci is a potentially emerging point who will be better in March than he is now.  And Sandy might be Juan/Trent level as a Sophomore with a shot to boot.  That team wins 10 conference games and dances.  I truly believe it.

Positional thoughts...
.

• Point Guard: I'd put us in the bottom third (8-10 range). Who knows how good Traci will be this year, but this league has a ton of great PGs. The Archie/Brunson combo at 'Nova, Garrett Jr at DePaul, Dunn at Providence, DSR at Georgetown, and two great transfers in Lewis at Butler and Watson at Creighton. Xavier and SHU also have some talented options at the point.
  
• Shooting Guard: We're probably about middle of the pack in the league (4-6). Duane is good, but so are Whitehead at SHU, Dunham at Butler, Davis at Xavier, and Hart at 'Nova. Lots of backcourt talent in the league.
  
• Small Forward: I'd guess bottom half, maybe (5-8)? Our advantage is if Sandy doesn't pan out, we have depth with Jajuan, Wally, and Anim. Peak at Georgetown, Jones at Butler, Blueitt at Xavier, and probably Johnson at SJU are almost certainly better right now. Harrell at Creighton and Jenkins at 'Nova aren't proven but big things are expected.
  
• Power Forward: We have to be near the top (1-3). Jalen Reynolds at Xavier is the only guy who I think might be close to Henry. Myke Henry at DePaul and Ben Bentil at Providence are decent players, but are they on that level? Is anyone?
  
• Center: Another place we shine (1-3). Ochefu at 'Nova, Delgado at SHU, those are the only two I really see being among the league's elite.

.
So my guesses, we are a bit below average in the backcourt, but certainly not terrible, we are about average on the wing but probably deeper than most teams, and we probably have the best frontcourt in the league. I don't think anyone in the Big East is close to having a two-man big tandem on par with Luke and Henry.

[wadesworld]

Between Duane, Luke, and Henry we will have 2 First Team and 1 Second Team All Big East players.

Traci and Luke will be All Freshman team.

Hank might be POY.

Not sure where we finish but think it's top 4 and think we're playing the 2nd best basketball in the conference by the end of the season.

7 seed going into the Tourney, but playing like a 3-4 seed.

[Galway Eagle]

Between Duane, Luke, and Henry we will have 2 First Team and 1 Second Team All Big East players.

Traci and Luke will be All Freshman team.

Hank might be POY.

Not sure where we finish but think it's top 4 and think we're playing the 2nd best basketball in the conference by the end of the season.

7 seed going into the Tourney, but playing like a 3-4 seed.

Umm why would Luke be on the all freshman team?

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Between Duane, Luke, and Henry we will have 2 First Team and 1 Second Team All Big East players.

Traci and Luke will be All Freshman team.

Hank might be POY.

Not sure where we finish but think it's top 4 and think we're playing the 2nd best basketball in the conference by the end of the season.

7 seed going into the Tourney, but playing like a 3-4 seed.

Luke a freshman again eh?

Has a freshman ever won BEast poy? I don't think so. I also don't remember the last time a poy played for a team that finished third or lower in the BEast. Henry as Ffrst team all BEast, maybe. Poy, I really doubt.

Luke is a first team center. I'm not sure about Duane yet. He's really good but there are a lot of great guards in this league.

[jsglow]

Luke a freshman again eh?

Has a freshman ever won BEast poy? I don't think so. I also don't remember the last time a poy played for a team that finished third or lower in the BEast. Henry as Ffrst team all BEast, maybe. Poy, I really doubt.

Luke is a first team center. I'm not sure about Duane yet. He's really good but there are a lot of great guards in this league.

We're all just goofin' but the drinking is starting early! 

Luke 1st Team; Henry All-Frosh and Newcomer of Year; Duane Honorable Mention.

[Galway Eagle]

Luke a freshman again eh?

Has a freshman ever won BEast poy? I don't think so. I also don't remember the last time a poy played for a team that finished third or lower in the BEast. Henry as Ffrst team all BEast, maybe. Poy, I really doubt.

Luke is a first team center. I'm not sure about Duane yet. He's really good but there are a lot of great guards in this league.

Last year... Dunn at Providence they finished 4th

[wadesworld]

Doh!  Obviously I meant Hank on the All Freshman team, not Luke.