Somewhat informed minutes distribution discussion

[mu03eng]

OK, quality of competition aside, I think there is some value to projecting this years rotation/minutes and where the players will be used.  This assumes no injuries etc.

Sacar = 3 min at the 3 and 5 min at the 4 (8 min total)
The Engine = 28 min at the 1 (28 min total)
Haanif = 8 min at the 1 (8 min total)
Sandy = 25 min at the 3 (25 min total)
Henry = 28 min at the 4 (28 min total)
Wally = 3 min at the 3 and 4 min at the 4 (7 min total)
Luke = 34 min at the 5 (34 min total)
Heldt = 6 min at the 5 (5 min total)
JjJ = 9 min at the 2 and 9 min at the 3  (18 min total)
Duane = 4 min at the 1 and 31 min at the 2 (35 min total)

Thoughts?  I really want to see Henry spend some time at the 3 but I really don't see how we can do that with the roster composition.

[MUchamp22]

OK, quality of competition aside, I think there is some value to projecting this years rotation/minutes and where the players will be used.  This assumes no injuries etc.

Sacar = 3 min at the 3 and 5 min at the 4 (8 min total)
The Engine = 28 min at the 1 (28 min total)
Haanif = 8 min at the 1 (8 min total)
Sandy = 25 min at the 3 (25 min total)
Henry = 28 min at the 4 (28 min total)
Wally = 3 min at the 3 and 4 min at the 4 (7 min total)
Luke = 34 min at the 5 (34 min total)
JjJ = 9 min at the 2 and 9 min at the 3  (18 min total)
Duane = 4 min at the 1 and 31 min at the 2 (35 min total)

Thoughts?  I really want to see Henry spend some time at the 3 but I really don't see how we can do that with the roster composition.

No Matt Heldt? Did you forget him or think he gets no minutes. Seems like you left him 6 mins at Center, but forgot tomput him in?

[WarriorFan]

I like Wojo, but don't think he can go 10 deep. 
We'll see it for some of the early games, then he'll tighten up to 8 max.

[mu03eng]

No Matt Heldt? Did you forget him or think he gets no minutes. Seems like you left him 6 mins at Center, but forgot tomput him in?

I did forget him, typo on my part and I've since corrected.  Thanks!

[mu03eng]

I like Wojo, but don't think he can go 10 deep. 
We'll see it for some of the early games, then he'll tighten up to 8 max.

We played 8 max a lot last season and how'd that turn out?  No way we go with a rotation shorter than 9 in conference play.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

I think Haanif will play a lot more than 8 minutes per game.  JJJ looks improved, but I think ultimately Haanif will dip into his minutes, and some of Carter's at PG.  I think somewhere closer to 15-18.  I think this minute distribution for Sandy is simply a product of him missing out on the Italy games. 

[bilsu]

I think Haanif should redshirt, if he is only going to play 8 minutes. Somebody said that if you played in Italy you are not eligible to redshirt, which means he is the only redshirt candidate.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Somewhat incomplete until we see what Haanif can do. But my best guess:

Duane: 30 minutes
Henry: 29 minutes
Luke: 25 minutes
Traci: 24 minutes
Sandy: 23 Minutes
JJJ: 21 minutes
Haanif: 16 minutes
Sacar: 13 minutes
Wally: 13 minutes
Heldt: 6 Minutes

[mug644]

My thinking is that the time in Italy showed that there isn't really much of a drop off after the starting five, yet your projections have only one guy (JJJ) playing more than 8 minutes but less than 25. My guess is that guys like Traci, Sandy and Luke will go down a bit, and Haanif and Sacar will go up. Maybe Wally too.

[jsglow]

My thinking is that the time in Italy showed that there isn't really much of a drop off after the starting five, yet your projections have only one guy (JJJ) playing more than 8 minutes but less than 25. My guess is that guys like Traci, Sandy and Luke will go down a bit, and Haanif and Sacar will go up. Maybe Wally too.

Agreed.  Our #7 and #8 players will be getting more than 8 minutes.  And Duane isn't playing 35. 

[mu03eng]

Agreed.  Our #7 and #8 players will be getting more than 8 minutes.  And Duane isn't playing 35.

Why isn't Duane playing 35 minutes?  Because the drop off behind him isn't significant enough or because he can't play 35 minutes effectively?  Or some combination of the two?

IMHO, I think Duane is the only player when we have a significant drop off behind.  Not knocking the guys behind(too much) but I think Duane is going to be the real deal this year.  Luke is great, but Henry/Heldt can spell him without a ton of trouble and Henry is great but we have options I like where we can go small at the 4 plus Henry is a freshmen so his efficiency won't be great at a lot of minutes.

[jsglow]

Because my experience tells me very few players play 35.  I'm happy to be proven wrong.  I guess if your saying 'conference crunch time' then I'll believe it but against Grambling he's getting 24 and that'll bring down the average.

Just did a little quick research Phil.  Went back 5-6 years.  Only Jimmy Butler has even gotten to 34 minutes.  Other team leaders have been 30-33.  Carlino last year was 33 when you were the next option off the bench.   

[mu03eng]

Carlino last year was 33 when you were the next option off the bench.   

Still bitter about that since I never got into the game....I got 5 fouls to give like everyone else.

It is a fair point, in my head I was wondering how many minutes the lead player played in college typically.  Like with everything else I got lazy, didn't look anything up and threw crap at the wall.

So if we take Duane down 3 minutes to 32....who picks up those 3 minutes?  Haanif?  Not sure about that til I see him play.  More likely JjJ gets more time at the 2.

[jsglow]

More history from last year:

Luke: 29.3 mpg
Duane: 28.1
JjJ: 21.7
Sandy: 15.0

Everyone with the possible exception of JjJ will see an increase.  Luke/Duane to 'max' minutes (31-34), Sandy to Juan type numbers around 25-28.  Totally agree with Engine in the upper 20s too.

[jsglow]

Somewhat incomplete until we see what Haanif can do. But my best guess:

Duane: 30 minutes
Henry: 29 minutes
Luke: 25 minutes
Traci: 24 minutes
Sandy: 23 Minutes
JJJ: 21 minutes
Haanif: 16 minutes
Sacar: 13 minutes
Wally: 13 minutes
Heldt: 6 Minutes

I'm confident you're now prepared to 'revise and extend your remarks'.   

[martyconlonontherun]

When projecting minutes you need to average more than 200 minutes to account for DNP-CD, injuries, and suspensions. We need to play Duane, Ellenson and Fischer 30+ and wouldn't be shocked to see Wilson play 35+.

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

Duane 30
Henry  30
Luke  28
Traci  25
Sandy 23
Jajuan 21
Haanif  17
Sacar   14
Wally   7
Matt   5

Traci and Haanif split PG and Haanif gets some minutes on the wing.  Total projection on my part since Haanif is an unknown.  Duane is the 3rd PG, if necessary.

Sandy and Jajuan, their minutes vary as Wojo plays the hot hand or better matchup.  Sandy starts all year with Jajuan being the 6th man.  Sandy blends nicely with the starters as a shot up shooter and passer, Jajuan comes off the bench in attack mode as a driver.

Henry backs up Luke at the 5 and MU plays small when either goes to the bench.  Sacar will backup the 4.  Will have to zone larger teams, mainly 2-3 but a 1-3-1 trap when Wojo wants to provide pressure.

Matt will play spot minutes at the 5.  Needs to improve his conditioning, quickness and athleticism.  I see him playing short 2-3 minute stints.  Todd Smith will be his best friend.

Wally is an energy guy, will provide highlight reel dunks & blocks and can knock down the occasional triple.  Thinner than last year, I think he is a wing only and I don't see him playing the 4.

[wadesworld]

Duane 30
Henry  30
Luke  28
Traci  25
Sandy 23
Jajuan 21
Haanif  17
Sacar   14
Wally   7
Matt   5

Traci and Haanif split PG and Haanif gets some minutes on the wing.  Total projection on my part since Haanif is an unknown.  Duane is the 3rd PG, if necessary.

Sandy and Jajuan, their minutes vary as Wojo plays the hot hand or better matchup.  Sandy starts all year with Jajuan being the 6th man.  Sandy blends nicely with the starters as a shot up shooter and passer, Jajuan comes off the bench in attack mode as a driver.

Henry backs up Luke at the 5 and MU plays small when either goes to the bench.  Sacar will backup the 4.  Will have to zone larger teams, mainly 2-3 but a 1-3-1 trap when Wojo wants to provide pressure.

Matt will play spot minutes at the 5.  Needs to improve his conditioning, quickness and athleticism.  I see him playing short 2-3 minute stints.  Todd Smith will be his best friend.

Wally is an energy guy, will provide highlight reel dunks & blocks and can knock down the occasional triple.  Thinner than last year, I think he is a wing only and I don't see him playing the 4.

Pretty much agree with this.  I think Traci may take a minute or 2 more away from Haanif, and Sacar and/or Wally may take a minute or 2 away from JJJ and/or Sandy.  But that's about the order I'd expect players to get the most minutes.  Maybe Luke takes a minute or 2 from Hank, too.

[jsglow]

When projecting minutes you need to average more than 200 minutes to account for DNP-CD, injuries, and suspensions. We need to play Duane, Ellenson and Fischer 30+ and wouldn't be shocked to see Wilson play 35+.

A DNP-CD doesn't affect one's average.  Luke averaged 29.3 MPG in the games he played, not the totality of the MU 30 game schedule.  While I understand your theory, that's simply not how it's calculated.  Sure Duane will have games where he hits 35.  But he'll also have LOTS of games in the 20s.  Lots and lots.

[jsglow]

Another quick thought.  One of the things that certainly drives up MPG for your starters are deep tourney runs.  It dilutes the impact of non-con and the bench grows increasingly short.

[bilsu]

When projecting minutes you need to average more than 200 minutes to account for DNP-CD, injuries, and suspensions. We need to play Duane, Ellenson and Fischer 30+ and wouldn't be shocked to see Wilson play 35+.

You forgot overtimes.

The more a player plays the more tired a player gets and that usually results in a decline in production. Players play a lot of minutes when there is no viable alternative. Heldt will see more than 6 minutes as he is the most logical backup for Fischer. He also could be the backup to HE by shifting Fischer to power forward. It appears to me that MU will run every chance it can get, which will require a lot of running for Fischer and HE. That will result in them playing less than if we played a half court game. Excluding Haanif at this point, since I have not seen him play. Wilson and Carter will start at guards. Wilson will back up Carter at the point and JJJ will back up Wilson. Basically the guard combos will be Wilson/Carter, JJJ/Wilson and JJJ/Carter. Breakdown Wilson 30, Carter 24, JJJ 24 and others 2. Haanif would eat into these times. I think you see Fischer and Ellenson at 30 Heldt and Anim at 10. That leaves SF which will be Cohen 25, Wally 10, Anim 3 and others 2.

[brewcity77]

I'm breaking guys down into three categories:

The Mainstays

• Duane Wilson: 32
• Luke Fischer: 32
• Henry Ellenson: 30

.
Supporting Cast

• Sandy Cohen: 24
• Traci Carter: 23
• Jajuan Johnson: 20
• Haanif Cheatham: 15

.
True Bench

• Wally Ellenson: 10
• Sacar Anim: 8
• Matt Heldt: 6

.
Traci and Sandy round out the starting lineup, with Jajuan and Cheatham being the primary guys off the bench. Jajuan mostly covers 2-4, Cheatham 1-3. Ellenson and Anim get spot minutes, but I expect both would have games where they make an impact. Wojo would have the ability to run the hot hand and for those four, I could see almost any division of minutes totaling 50-60. Heldt just gets in to give Henry and Luke breaks as needed, with Henry being the more likely second option at the 5 in critical moments.[/list]

[GGGG]

About two weeks ago, I made the following prediction.  Updates in red.

Fischer (30) - Starting post
Henry (30) - Starting forward
Duane (28 30) - Starting guard, spot minutes at point
JJJ (24 22) - Possibly Starting guard
Carter (20 25) - Starting point
Wally (18 13) - Back up at forward and guard
Sandy (18 20) - Back up at Possibly startingforward and guard
Haanif (12 10) - Back up point...hopefully
Sacar (10) - Miscellaneous minutes at guard and forward
Heldt (10) - Back up post

[jsglow]

I'm breaking guys down into three categories:

The Mainstays

• Duane Wilson: 32
• Luke Fischer: 32
• Henry Ellenson: 30

.
Supporting Cast

• Sandy Cohen: 24
• Traci Carter: 23
• Jajuan Johnson: 20
• Haanif Cheatham: 15

.
True Bench

• Wally Ellenson: 10
• Sacar Anim: 8
• Matt Heldt: 6

.
Traci and Sandy round out the starting lineup, with Jajuan and Cheatham being the primary guys off the bench. Jajuan mostly covers 2-4, Cheatham 1-3. Ellenson and Anim get spot minutes, but I expect both would have games where they make an impact. Wojo would have the ability to run the hot hand and for those four, I could see almost any division of minutes totaling 50-60. Heldt just gets in to give Henry and Luke breaks as needed, with Henry being the more likely second option at the 5 in critical moments.[/list]

That looks pretty spot on.  I'm a little up in the air about the 4-5.  You have 68 of the 80 minutes accounted for among the Big 3.  I guess I'll reserve judgement on how those other 12 get covered.  If we're saying that essentially all of Sacar's work this year is at the #4....  But I think you're real close.  And I agree 100% with your logical groupings.

[mu03eng]

But he'll also have LOTS of games in the 20s.  Lots and lots.

What are you trying to cause my schedule angst to flair up again???