[Paint Touches] Way Too Early Bracketology

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

http://painttouches.com/2015/07/27/way-too-early-bracketology/

[GB Warrior]

Is Marquette "in the hunt" just to drive clicks?

[GoldenWarrior11]

Conference Breakdown:
ACC: 8
B1G: 8
B12: 6
SEC: 6
P12: 5
BE: 4
AAC: 3
A10: 3
MWC: 2
MVC: 1
WCC: 1

I may be an optimist, but I still see the Big East getting 5 teams in.  6, last year, was extremely impressive, while 4, two years ago, felt like a down year.  I believe you will see the conference get, on average, 5 teams in within a given year.  I think you'll end up seeing Villanova, Georgetown, Xavier, Butler and either Creighton/Marquette get in - at the expense of an ACC/B1G team (in this case either Syracuse/Pittsburgh/Michigan).

[Class71]

MU in the hunt and NJIT in. How far we have to go.

[hoyasincebirth]

Georgetown will get better than a 6 seed.

[MarquetteDano]

Georgetown will get better than a 6 seed.

Somebody from the Big East had better get to the Elite Eight this year.  Too much underperforming in the NCAA's will start to knock down everyone a seed or two from their deserved seed line.

[wadesworld]

Georgetown will get better than a 6 seed.

You come here and say this every year and then it never really happens.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

MU in the hunt and NJIT in. How far we have to go.

I mean, NJIT is an automatic qualifier, not an at large bid. If we played in the Atlantic Sun we would make the tournament every year

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I may be an optimist, but I still see the Big East getting 5 teams in.  6, last year, was extremely impressive, while 4, two years ago, felt like a down year.  I believe you will see the conference get, on average, 5 teams in within a given year.  I think you'll end up seeing Villanova, Georgetown, Xavier, Butler and either Creighton/Marquette get in - at the expense of an ACC/B1G team (in this case either Syracuse/Pittsburgh/Michigan).

Certainly possible. It will be a hard road for that 5th team. Either Marquette/Creighton needs to climb out of a huge hole or Providence needs to keep itself from freefalling without LeDonte Henton and its entire frontcourt and gain a very blah recruiting class. Any of the three could do it, they would just need to outperform reasonable expectations.

[brewcity77]

As of right now, 4 feels right. Providence will probably be right around the bubble, and as TAMU said, Marquette and Creighton will both hope to get there. However both MU and Creighton were bad last year and lost the bulk of their production. They will need a lot out of newcomers to make the NCAAs. Sure, it's possible, but on paper it's a massive uphill climb.

I suppose the other wildcard is Seton Hall. In theory the team should be more on the same page as it largely seemed like it was Gibbs/Sina on one side and the freshmen on the other side of a fairly talented bunch. The Gibbs/Sina contingent are now gone, though I suspect they were the more stable of the two sides in Kevin Willard's dysfunctional family. My guess is it goes bottoms up and Willard finally gets fired, but Whitehead and Delgado are certainly talented enough to carry a team to the Dance.

[drewm88]

You come here and say this every year and then it never really happens.

Uhhh they were a 4 this year.

[wadesworld]

Uhhh they were a 4 this year.

Right.  I don't literally mean he comes here saying "We'll be a 4 seed" every year.  He comes here every season and sees what we're predicting and says "We'll be better than that."  Very rarely does it actually happen.  I can't remember a year in which Georgetown significantly exceeded expectations.  They usually play right to what they are expected to in the regular season and then fall short in the NCAA Tournament.

For example, last season's was this:

Yes Georgetown is a top 25 team and will crack the top 10 after a productive OOC schedule. The Hoyas are going to be scary good this year.

Georgetown cracked the top 25 for the first time in the 8th week of the season and was back out of the rankings the very next week.  They maxed out at number 21 and were ranked for a total of 4 weeks on the entire season.  They were good, but far from "scary good."  And they never sniffed the top 10.

[GoldenWarrior11]

Everybody be sleeping on DePaul

[chapman]

MU in the hunt and NJIT in. How far we have to go.

They're probably just glad they found a conference.  One that would have otherwise been down to seven members and has four schools in Florida and one each in GA, SC, and TN, but at least the weather will be nice for road games.

[Dawson Rental]

Everybody be sleeping on DePaul

Particularly their alumni.   

[Dawson Rental]

MU in the hunt and NJIT in. How far we have to go.

I mean, NJIT is an automatic qualifier, not an at large bid. If we played in the Atlantic Sun we would make the tournament every year

Yes, the Atlantic Sun would be a very long way to go.

[hoyasincebirth]

Right.  I don't literally mean he comes here saying "We'll be a 4 seed" every year.  He comes here every season and sees what we're predicting and says "We'll be better than that."  Very rarely does it actually happen.  I can't remember a year in which Georgetown significantly exceeded expectations.  They usually play right to what they are expected to in the regular season and then fall short in the NCAA Tournament.

For example, last season's was this:

Georgetown cracked the top 25 for the first time in the 8th week of the season and was back out of the rankings the very next week.  They maxed out at number 21 and were ranked for a total of 4 weeks on the entire season.  They were good, but far from "scary good."  And they never sniffed the top 10.

yes but to be fair we were an uncalled over the back call against Wisconsin from being in the top 10 very early in the season. That game plus the Kansas games that were one possession games that if we win we're in the top 10 just as I predicted. We weren't that far off. Utah matched up very well with us there was no shame in losing to an equally good team on the West Coast.

Also yes. I am a homer for my team. Don't know why anyone would want to be a fan and not be, but a 6 seed seems to be undervaluing Georgetown compared to most other's expectations. Most people predict Georgetown to be at least 2nd in the conference next year. The 2nd place BE team will be higher than a 6 seed. So I'm not saying they're going to exceed expectations. I'm saying the 6 seed prediction is lower than most predictions based on where Georgetown is expected to finish in the conference.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

yes but to be fair we were an uncalled over the back call against Wisconsin from being in the top 10 very early in the season. That game plus the Kansas games that were one possession games that if we win we're in the top 10 just as I predicted. We weren't that far off. Utah matched up very well with us there was no shame in losing to an equally good team on the West Coast.

Also yes. I am a homer for my team. Don't know why anyone would want to be a fan and not be, but a 6 seed seems to be undervaluing Georgetown compared to most other's expectations. Most people predict Georgetown to be at least 2nd in the conference next year. The 2nd place BE team will be higher than a 6 seed. So I'm not saying they're going to exceed expectations. I'm saying the 6 seed prediction is lower than most predictions based on where Georgetown is expected to finish in the conference.

I have Georgetown coming in 3rd behind Villanova and Butler