2015 Non-conference Schedule

[wadesworld]

We have the best front court in the Big East and one of the best guards in the Big East.  This team should be playing meaningful games come the end of February.

[The Equalizer]

I haven't added anything for the BET because that gets really speculative.

Really?  You can speculate on us getting an RPI rank of 75, but you can't speculate on who a 10-8 Big East team might face in the conference tournament?

How about this:  2015 St. Johns at 10-8 was 5th place.  2014 10-8 was a 3-way tie for 3rd.  So split the difference and assume 10-8 means a 4th place Big East finish. 

In that case, we get a first round bye, play our first game against #5, and a 2nd game against #1.  That doesn't seem terribly speculative. But two more game against 21-12 St. Johns and 33-3 Villanova just might improve our SOS just a teeny bit, don't you think?

You are absolutely correct this could happen, but that's not my point.  My point is by scheduling the way we did we are more likely than not forced into this very scenario.  If we schedule better we don't have to rely on a bubble decision.  Basically we have a 5% of getting in out right, 50% chance that we're bubble at less than 50/50 we get in and 45% chance we are out all together.  Better schedule shifts it to 10% chance we're in out right, 10% chance we're bubble at better than 50/50, 30% chance we're bubble less than 50/50 and 50% chance we out all together

All I can do is put this on the table for discussion;

--22-11 overall
--10-8 / 4th place in the Big East
--3 good wins in the non-conference
--No bad losses
--1-1 in the tournament

Is that body of work worthy of tournament discussion? 

If it came down to it do you think someone could rationally argue that a team with maybe only 9 wins in a power conference, maybe without a tournament win, maybe one less good non-conference win, maybe with a a bad loss or two--are you going to argue that the true judge of THAT team is that they beat 7 teams ranked 200 to 225, while MU's cupcakes were in the 300s.

[hoyasincebirth]

The point is that if Marquette doesn't go at least 3-2 in their big 5 OOC games and get at least 10 wins in BE play they will not be dancing. The 300 vs. 200 thing is part of it because it means the overall RPI will be lower than it could be, but the other part of it is that Marquette only has 5 OOC games of note and that's being generous. In reality none of those teams are locks for the NCAA tournament. Iowa is the closest to a lock. So we don't even know how much help Marquette will get from those games. There's a good chance Marquette won't play a ranked team until BE play.

I think Marquette on Paper should be an NCAA tournament team. Not sure they get there though because the games aren't played on paper and the schedule certainly hurts things.

[Shark]

Here's a thought...what if last years RPI doesn't mean ANYTHING for next year? I mean, just look at our team. Unless someone is gonna break down all of our "weak" mid-major teams and promise me they haven't improved one bit in comparison to their conference, I'm gonna chill and enjoy the season. Some of you guys just get bored and need to read into something no matter how speculative and impossible to predict it will be.

[brewcity77]

All I can do is put this on the table for discussion;

--22-11 overall
--10-8 / 4th place in the Big East
--3 good wins in the non-conference
--No bad losses
--1-1 in the tournament

Is that body of work worthy of tournament discussion? 

If it came down to it do you think someone could rationally argue that a team with maybe only 9 wins in a power conference, maybe without a tournament win, maybe one less good non-conference win, maybe with a a bad loss or two--are you going to argue that the true judge of THAT team is that they beat 7 teams ranked 200 to 225, while MU's cupcakes were in the 300s.

Except you can't put that on the table for discussion because it doesn't add up. 11 total league wins plus 3 quality non league wins adds to 14. We play 9 low major opponents, so 22 wins in that scenario guarantees at least 2 bad losses, assuming we don't take any additional bad losses in league play.

This schedule will obviously hurt RPI and SOS. Clearly not the only factors, but still important factors in NCAA inclusion and seeding. This schedule will hurt walk up attendance, as few will make a special trip for a December weeknight game against Grambling.

I get the idea of just winning games, and this should guarantee some wins, but I'm skeptical that beating Presbyterian's brains in in December will help this team beat Georgetown and Xavier in February.

And as a STH, honestly, I feel I paid for a better schedule than this. I could care less about the volume of home dates when the quality is this poor. I'd much rather see some 2-for-1 series with mediocre mid majors, a decent neutral court game, or a new home and home started. And as a fan of the game, I'd much rather see better low majors. Everyone gripes about UNO but it was an entertaining game. Watching a team get beat by forty, even when your team is doing the beating, gets boring.

Well, unless it's Bucky or ND.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

We have the best front court in the Big East and one of the best guards in the Big East.  This team should be playing meaningful games come the end of February.

With a big ol question mark at PG. If the last two years have taught me anything, its to not have a question mark at PG.

You are right about the frontcourt. I think the only team that can legitimately compete is Villanova with Jenkins and Ochefu. Duane is one of the best guards but there are lot of those in the BEast. Jalen Brunson, Ryan Arcidiacono, Josh Hart, Tyler Lewis, Kellen Dunham, DV Smith-Rivera, L.J. Peak, Trevon Bluiett, Mo Watson Jr., Kris Dunn, Isaiah Whitehead, and Billy Garrett Jr. are all guards I would put at the same level as Duane or better.

[The Equalizer]

Except you can't put that on the table for discussion because it doesn't add up. 11 total league wins plus 3 quality non league wins adds to 14. We play 9 low major opponents, so 22 wins in that scenario guarantees at least 2 bad losses, assuming we don't take any additional bad losses in league play.

I think its your totals that don't add up

We don't play 9 low major opponents.  We play 8. 

So, in the win column.  10 conference + 3 quality non-conference + 1 BET + 8 cupcakes = 22 wins, with zero bad losses--which is what I had.  Not sure where the other two bad losses you claim the scenario "guarantees." 

The 11 losses are:
2 good non-conference losses among Belmont, Iowa, Wisconsin, and the two Legends games
8 conference losses
1 BET loss
11 total losses

That means:

22-11 overall record
Plays in a major conference
no bad losses
3 quality non-conference wins
10 conference wins
1 win in the BET

All I'm saying is that's the type of team that historically gets a serious look in the NCAAs.  And teams with similar bodies of work have made the tournament in years past despite a lot of 300+ opponents among their non-conference slate.

[bilsu]

I think the mistake is that to say that none of the eight conference losses are not a bad loss. Let's say that you get to the ten wins by sweeping the 5 lowest finishing teams. That means you would not had a bad conference loss, but it also means you have not gotten a win against the best Big East teams. You could also get there by winning all nine home games, which means you only go 1-8 on the road, which is not impressive. Realistically MU has to go more than 10-8 to get into the tournament. Last year Xavier got in with a 9-9 record. However, the Big East as a whole had a very impressive non-conference record, which resulted in overstating the strength of the conference as reflected by the early exit of all 6 teams from the NCAA tournament. MU's strength of schedule will largely be determined by how well the other Big East teams do in the non-conference games. While they can, we simply cannot assume the Big East will duplicate last year's non-conference success.

[mu03eng]

Really?  You can speculate on us getting an RPI rank of 75, but you can't speculate on who a 10-8 Big East team might face in the conference tournament?

How about this:  2015 St. Johns at 10-8 was 5th place.  2014 10-8 was a 3-way tie for 3rd.  So split the difference and assume 10-8 means a 4th place Big East finish. 

In that case, we get a first round bye, play our first game against #5, and a 2nd game against #1.  That doesn't seem terribly speculative. But two more game against 21-12 St. Johns and 33-3 Villanova just might improve our SOS just a teeny bit, don't you think?

All I can do is put this on the table for discussion;

--22-11 overall
--10-8 / 4th place in the Big East
--3 good wins in the non-conference
--No bad losses
--1-1 in the tournament

Is that body of work worthy of tournament discussion? 

If it came down to it do you think someone could rationally argue that a team with maybe only 9 wins in a power conference, maybe without a tournament win, maybe one less good non-conference win, maybe with a a bad loss or two--are you going to argue that the true judge of THAT team is that they beat 7 teams ranked 200 to 225, while MU's cupcakes were in the 300s.
[/quote]

I have no doubt what you provided as a possibility would put us in the discussion, but a 22-11 record should more than put us in the discussion.  22-11 should give us a top 40 RPI but with our schedule it will likely give us a top 60...which means we could be in or out.

[MUfan12]

Last year our season ticket base was off by about 1500 compared to '13-'14.  I suspect that this year's drop is comparable or maybe a bit worse.  To get an accurate gauge, find the announced attendance figure for the worst weekday Buy game.  I tried to quickly find Omaha's last year but couldn't come up with it.  It's around 12,000 (including students) and dropping.

MU just opened up season tickets for general sale, and the map is interesting. Looks like a lot of people opted not to renew. https://oss.ticketmaster.com/aps/marquette/EN/buy/details/MBFS1516

This is a really big season for the program. Have to show some positive momentum.

[Brewtown Andy]

MU just opened up season tickets for general sale, and the map is interesting. Looks like a lot of people opted not to renew. https://oss.ticketmaster.com/aps/marquette/EN/buy/details/MBFS1516

This is a really big season for the program. Have to show some positive momentum.

I opted to leave my seats in Row Z of Section 205 this year for a better location.  Turns out I would have been almost completely alone in that row.

[Galway Eagle]

NC State's schedule indicating that we'll be playing LSU in the semi finals of the november tournament.

[Herman Cain]

The more I think about it this is a very good schedule for us.  There are ample opportunities for quality wins. However, if we can't put any quality wins on the board, the cupcakes will at least carry us to  a 9-4 non conference.   Although as I have said before, I think we can get some cupcakes with more appeal.

No matter what, in order to make a tournament, we will need to go 9-9 in conference. If we go 2-2 in the quality non conference we may have a shot at the NCAA if we can get one win in the BET.

[bilsu]

I would plan on 8-5, if we lose to Belmont.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

The more I think about it this is a very good schedule for us.  There are ample opportunities for quality wins. However, if we can't put any quality wins on the board, the cupcakes will at least carry us to  a 9-4 non conference.   Although as I have said before, I think we can get some cupcakes with more appeal.

No matter what, in order to make a tournament, we will need to go 9-9 in conference. If we go 2-2 in the quality non conference we may have a shot at the NCAA if we can get one win in the BET.

I wrote out the schedule yesterday and tried to figure out what games we could reasonably expect to win and lose. I think 9-9 in conference is a reasonable expectation. This non-conference could get us 7-10 victories. I don't think it will get us into the tournament, but I think our OOC schedule will make sure we are an above .500 team.

[Galway Eagle]

I wrote out the schedule yesterday and tried to figure out what games we could reasonably expect to win and lose. I think 9-9 in conference is a reasonable expectation. This non-conference could get us 7-10 victories. I don't think it will get us into the tournament, but I think our OOC schedule will make sure we are an above .500 team.

I came to 9-9 as well. Which really means all we need is an injury or few bad calls or strong be tournament showing to push us in

[jsglow]

MU just opened up season tickets for general sale, and the map is interesting. Looks like a lot of people opted not to renew. https://oss.ticketmaster.com/aps/marquette/EN/buy/details/MBFS1516

This is a really big season for the program. Have to show some positive momentum.

Did some examining of the individual 400 level sections.  The $132 seats have done reasonably well selling very high up in the various sections.  It's the 'middle class' seats that have suffered terribly.  I'd argue that represents a fairly typical fan.  The $275 seats are in terrible shape right now.  It's not scoopers and those sweater vests that have had tickets since 1965 but rather the folks who casually follow the program.  I'm disappointed that my own section 400 is only 1/3 full right now. Tough times indeed.

[bradley center bat]

I wonder why there is a ticketmaster fee on season tickets? The section listed at $132 is $125. I would skip ticketmaster and call the MU Ticket Office.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Just for sh**s and giggles, and I decided to compare our non-conference opponents' 2015 RPIs (a main topic of discussion in this thread) to CBS Sports pre-season ranking of all 351 teams.  I in no way think CBS sports rankings are the end all be all, but it is something, and they know more about the low majors than I do. And this obviously isn't apples to apples as ranking does not equal RPI, but I am bored and need November 13th to be here, so I did it anyway.

Opponent / 2015 RPI / CBS Sports Preseason 15-16 Ranking

Belmont / 100 / 58
IUPUI / 257 / 254
Iowa / 40 / 44
LSU / 65 / 38
Arizona State / 90 / 88  or  NC State / 32 / 32
Jackson State / 317 / 218
Grambling State / 351 / 351
Maine / 338 / 310
San Jose State / 336 / 331
Wisconsin / 2 / 17
Chicago State / 333 / 339
Presbyterian / 314 / 292
Stetson / 335 / 317

Significant improvements bolded. What this means? Likely nothing, but yep, the schedule still sucks, and our RPI at the end of the season is likely going to be greatly affected.