Uber & Tesla

[jesmu84]

https://www.yahoo.com/autos/s/uber-ceo-tesla-sell-half-million-autonomous-electric-110000053.html

[Chicos' Buzz Scandal Countdown]

That would be sweet

jesmu84 is the RSS feed of muscoop

[Tugg Speedman]

Like Bill Gates says, the driver-less car is the modern day equivalent of the moon project in the late 1960s.  But instead of the USA and USSR throwing everything at the project to be first, now it is capitalist giving the tech and auto companies that can compete in this space (which is not many) almost anything they need to make this happen first.

If you can put together a credible plan for a driverless car, you can raise an infinite amount of money today.  It is like almost no other idea in recent years.

[ChicosBailBonds]

No one disagrees with you Another, it's the timing of adoption that people don't agree on. 

I see Uber, by the way, dealt another big regulatory blow today.  Their cost structure is going to get interesting.

[Tugg Speedman]

Google's Gargantuan Push For Cars With No Steering Wheel By 2020
http://www.forbes.com/sites/leoking/2015/03/19/googles-gargantuan-push-for-cars-with-no-steering-wheel-by-2020/

Chris Urmson, director of Google’s self driving car project, has stated the technology will be not only widespread but also relatively standard by 2020. Unlike the semi-autonomous cars being developed by automakers, Google’s vehicles will have no steering wheel whatsoever, being controlled exclusively by computer.

Elon Musk says we’ll outlaw human drivers in a world of driverless cars. Really?
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2015/03/18/should-we-outlaw-human-drivers-in-a-world-of-driverless-cars/

The simple explanation: Musk believes computers will do a much better job than us to the point where, statistically, humans would be a liability on roadways.

"I don't think we have to worry about autonomous cars, because that's sort of like a narrow form of AI," Musk told NVidia co-founder and CEO Jen-Hsun Huang at the technology company's annual developers conference today. "It would be like an elevator. They used to have elevator operators, and then we developed some simple circuitry to have elevators just automatically come to the floor that you're at ... the car is going to be just like that." So what happens when we get there? Musk said that the obvious move is to outlaw driving cars. "It's too dangerous," Musk said. "You can't have a person driving a two-ton death machine."

[ChicosBailBonds]

I just hope Google introduces glasses that can record stuff....I predict that is going to take off and sell billions of pairs....

[MUWarrior2007]

Google's Gargantuan Push For Cars With No Steering Wheel By 2020
http://www.forbes.com/sites/leoking/2015/03/19/googles-gargantuan-push-for-cars-with-no-steering-wheel-by-2020/

Chris Urmson, director of Google’s self driving car project, has stated the technology will be not only widespread but also relatively standard by 2020. Unlike the semi-autonomous cars being developed by automakers, Google’s vehicles will have no steering wheel whatsoever, being controlled exclusively by computer.

Elon Musk says we’ll outlaw human drivers in a world of driverless cars. Really?
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2015/03/18/should-we-outlaw-human-drivers-in-a-world-of-driverless-cars/

The simple explanation: Musk believes computers will do a much better job than us to the point where, statistically, humans would be a liability on roadways.

"I don't think we have to worry about autonomous cars, because that's sort of like a narrow form of AI," Musk told NVidia co-founder and CEO Jen-Hsun Huang at the technology company's annual developers conference today. "It would be like an elevator. They used to have elevator operators, and then we developed some simple circuitry to have elevators just automatically come to the floor that you're at ... the car is going to be just like that." So what happens when we get there? Musk said that the obvious move is to outlaw driving cars. "It's too dangerous," Musk said. "You can't have a person driving a two-ton death machine."

The funny thing is that you completely and conveniently gloss over the part of the article that indicates how driverless cars will likely evolve. 

It states: "The future of driverless cars will be incremental, which is to say that we won't suddenly wake up one day to a world of chauffeur-robots. Cars will gradually continue to take over the tasks drivers do today, just as they've been doing since the advent of power steering, cruise control and automatic door locks. Next, they'll do our parking for us. Then they'll detect objects for us in our blind spots, and nudge us when we drift astray on the highway.

By the time they get around to doing the steering and the navigating, you'll likely have the option to turn those features on and off, to take control when you want to. Maybe the car will do the easy work on straight-away interstate highways, and you'll handle the weaving through downtown traffic. Then, finally, when a car comes along that can do everything, very few people will own it. After the engineers have solved for driverless cars, it will take society years to adopt them (and that's just the beginning; it will take some parts of the world much longer than others).

So we are very, very far away from the world when driverless cars that can do everything will be everywhere."

[Tugg Speedman]

The funny thing is that you completely and conveniently gloss over the part of the article that indicates how driverless cars will likely evolve.  

It states: "The future of driverless cars will be incremental, which is to say that we won't suddenly wake up one day to a world of chauffeur-robots. Cars will gradually continue to take over the tasks drivers do today, just as they've been doing since the advent of power steering, cruise control and automatic door locks. Next, they'll do our parking for us. Then they'll detect objects for us in our blind spots, and nudge us when we drift astray on the highway.

By the time they get around to doing the steering and the navigating, you'll likely have the option to turn those features on and off, to take control when you want to. Maybe the car will do the easy work on straight-away interstate highways, and you'll handle the weaving through downtown traffic. Then, finally, when a car comes along that can do everything, very few people will own it. After the engineers have solved for driverless cars, it will take society years to adopt them (and that's just the beginning; it will take some parts of the world much longer than others).

So we are very, very far away from the world when driverless cars that can do everything will be everywhere."

Here is what is going to push the driverless car adoption at a breakneck pace ...

Around 2020 it going to become obvious that driverless cars are coming and they will change everything.  These threads will be a statement of the obvious.  At the same time, in 2020, you will go to the dealer and see the newest coolest 2021 model with a  sticker of $47,000.  But you will note that driverless is coming and worry that $47,000 investment is going to be worth $0 in 5 to 7 years.  So human driver auto sales will have an existential crisis because of an uncertain future.  The public will demand the dilemma be resolved fast and we either push ahead with driverless and end the era of driver cars, or ban driverless and announce 40,000 deaths and 500,000 injuries is fine.  I think we will pick the former and adoption of driverless will come fast because no one is going to buy a new human driver car out of fear it will worth nothing in a few short years.

Driverless Cars May Cut U.S. Auto Sales 40%, Barclays Says
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-19/driverless-cars-may-cut-u-s-auto-sales-by-40-barclays-says
Self-driving cars have become a frequent topic for auto executives as the technology for the vehicles emerges. The market for autonomous technology will grow to $42 billion by 2025 and self-driving cars may account for a quarter of global auto sales by 2035, according to Boston Consulting Group. By 2017, partially autonomous vehicles will become available in “large numbers,” the firm said in a report in April.

(Note, above says that GLOBAL auto sales will be 25% driverless in 20 years.  US sales will be far far higher as we typically lead in the adoption of these new technologies.)

Lastly see the auto stocks.  They are terrible performers despite the US on track to set an all-time record of more than 17 million unit sales.  Analysts are screaming these stocks are very cheap.  They are making tons of money yet the stocks are awful (Ford -8%, GM -11%, S&P 500 +1% YTD)

So why don't the auto stocks rally?  Because their future is uncertain because of driverless.  Investors are paralyzed.  They know driverless is coming and it will kill the current business model for auto companies (see Barclay's above).  Further they fear that driverless will also come from a new set of auto makers that don't even exist now.  So Ford and GM will additionally suffer by being left out of this revolution.

[MUsoxfan]

That's all fine and good until the first mega-suit filed as a result of a wreck caused by a driverless car

[Tugg Speedman]

That's all fine and good until the first mega-suit filed as a result of a wreck caused by a driverless car

It will be the human's fault

[warriorchick]

That's all fine and good until the first mega-suit filed as a result of a wreck caused by a driverless car

Probably be less expensive than if you add together all the lawsuits filed as a result of wrecks by drivered cars.

[MUsoxfan]

Probably be less expensive than if you add together all the lawsuits filed as a result of wrecks by drivered cars.

Right, but car manufacturers aren't typically at the center of lawsuits.

[MUsoxfan]

It will be the human's fault

I want to live in your fantasy future world where technology never goes wrong

[Tugg Speedman]

I want to live in your fantasy future world where technology never goes wrong

As a Google exec once said ... humans kill 40,000 and injure 500,000 a year.  Driverless does not have to be perfect, just better than that.

He is totally correct.  Driverless will not be perfect but it has a low hurdle to overcome, the carnage that human drivers cause now.

Additionally, many like Peter Diamondis think driverless will be so good that it will kill the Property and Casualty insurance business as well.  I think he might be correct.

[MUWarrior2007]

As a Google exec once said ... humans kill 40,000 and injure 500,000 a year.  Driverless does not have to be perfect, just better than that.

He is totally correct.  Driverless will not be perfect but it has a low hurdle to overcome, the carnage that human drivers cause now.

Additionally, many like Peter Diamondis think driverless will be so good that it will kill the Property and Casualty insurance business as well.  I think he might be correct.

Except, the first big accident that driverless causes will have the potential to derail the industry.  People trust technology, but not implicitly.  The more and more "glitches" that cause the NYSE to shut down, or the more and more hacks that cause networks to go down (or even worse), will cause people to be wary of things like driverless cars (i.e. things that could have glitches or be hacked). 

People like Peter Diamondis have an incentive to talk up the industries that they are trying to develop (i.e. make money in).  As I've said a number of times and you have yet to address:  where is my flying car and my meals in pill form?

[ChicosBailBonds]

It will be many many years.  People like to drive, they enjoy the control, they enjoy the freedom.  Now, for the millenial generation that can't get their nose out of a mobile phone for 10 seconds, maybe.   We had a meeting last week where we collected everyone's phone for 4 hours.   The withdrawl symptoms from mostly the millenials was priceless.

You would have thought their children were taken away...I suspect for them that was how they viewed it.

[MUWarrior2007]

It will be many many years.  People like to drive, they enjoy the control, they enjoy the freedom.  Now, for the millenial generation that can't get their nose out of a mobile phone for 10 seconds, maybe.   We had a meeting last week where we collected everyone's phone for 4 hours.   The withdrawl symptoms from mostly the millenials was priceless.

You would have thought their children were taken away...I suspect for them that was how they viewed it.

I weep for my generation.

[Tugg Speedman]

Except, the first big accident that driverless causes will have the potential to derail the industry.  People trust technology, but not implicitly.  The more and more "glitches" that cause the NYSE to shut down, or the more and more hacks that cause networks to go down (or even worse), will cause people to be wary of things like driverless cars (i.e. things that could have glitches or be hacked). 

People like Peter Diamondis have an incentive to talk up the industries that they are trying to develop (i.e. make money in).  As I've said a number of times and you have yet to address:  where is my flying car and my meals in pill form?

Modern technology is not about doing.  It is about doing for a cheaper price than current options.  What you want to know is why some made up science fiction is not reality.  The answer, because they are too expensive.

The reason the driver-less car is being seen as a reality is because it is believed they will offer a cheaper alternative to human driver.

[Tugg Speedman]

It will be many many years.  People like to drive, they enjoy the control, they enjoy the freedom.  Now, for the millenial generation that can't get their nose out of a mobile phone for 10 seconds, maybe.   We had a meeting last week where we collected everyone's phone for 4 hours.   The withdrawl symptoms from mostly the millenials was priceless.

You would have thought their children were taken away...I suspect for them that was how they viewed it.

But this is exactly wrong.  You lose control and freedom having to spend $tens if thousands for a car, insurance and then waste a tremendous amount of your time driving.  And I have not gotten to the lives are at risk because you are behind the wheel.

The driver-less car is the liberator, it gives control, it saves money.  That is why it will take over.

And, yes I like driving too.  We will have driving parks and that will be a whole lot more fun than sitting in traffic. 

[Tugg Speedman]

I weep for my generation.

You should not.  Chicos is a constipated old man.