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Author Topic: [Cracked Sidewalks]NBA Efficiency Projections on Butler Catching Wade or Lucas; All-Time MU-NBA Players Ranked  (Read 1976 times)

CrackedSidewalksSays

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NBA Efficiency Projections on Butler Catching Wade or Lucas; All-Time MU-NBA Players Ranked

In light of the big contracts signed by four MU players recently, Ellenson Guerrero posted an incredibly accurate subjective Top 10 of All-Time MU players on MU Scoop. I decided to run the NBA Efficiency rating for all 37 MU players who went to the pros and the projected career figure for active players (see calculations and stats on all 37 at table at the bottom).

For those of you who do not follow it, this is basically the formula NBA coaches use to give a point for everything good a player can do (points, rebounds, assists, steals and blocks) and take a point away for everything negative (turnovers, missed free throws and field goals). My slight variation has always been to double up steals and blocks, and only take away half for each missed free throw.

Dwyane Wade is No. 1 with a net positive 20,864 NBA Efficiency. I then adjusted each active players projection based on Doc Rivers' trajectory. At 33 years old, Doc had already put together 93% of his career Efficiency. Wade certainly may have more left as he plays for $20 million next year, but if he does only have 7% left then he would finish at 22,434.

Guerrero is certainly correct to put Mo Lucas No. 2. In fact, the late great is in a virtual tie right now with Wade and well ahead of where any other player projects. With regular season production virtually even with Wade, you can add Lucas five All-Star appearances, and the credit many expert observers gave him the most credit for delivering the Trail Blazers the NBA title the same year MU took the college crown. Not enough to match Wade's titles and All-Star games - but enough to say he is DEFINITELY the second greatest player to come out of MU to date.

Which leads us to Butler. He has a net efficiency of 3871, ahead of where current No. 3 Doc Rivers was at the age of 25. As dominant as he was this season it is possible he could make a run at Wade and Lucas, but he has a long way to go. It is actually a close call on if he can catch Rivers, Jim Chones (currently 4th) and/or Don Kojis (5th). Kojis is not exact because the NBA actually only recorded blocked shots and steals his final two seasons, so I had to estimate - but those three are VERY close right now for who is the third greatest.

Here is where the real surprise will start for some. Wesley Mattehews AND Jae Crowder both project to finish in the top eight - ahead of Thompson, Whitehead, Meminger, McNeill, McIlvaine, Smith etc.

Matthews is already in 7th with 6,319, BUT while he should easily pass George Thompson he is 28 years old and projected to be passed by both Butler (25 years old) and Crowder (24). Obviously we hope Wesley has a complete recovery, but even if he does Doc had already accumulated 63% of his value by this age, so the same track would get Matthews just above 10,000 by career end.

Butler projects to gradruple his 3871 to 15,484, and at 24 Crowder projects to still have 82% of his productivity left and be on course to actually nudge past Matthews (though it is basically a deadeven projection for a tie for 7th all-time)

Steve Novak has his valuable nitch - though overall his numbers do not add up to some of the old greats. Certainly we hope Dwight Buycks unbelievable three-point shooting during and ability to destroy Garry Harris in the few games played give him a chance for a late career, and that Jerel McNeal, DJO and ... okay, a little less enthusiastically ... Vander Blue find a nitch. Here is the breakdown for all 37 players:

<style type="text/css"> table.tableizer-table {  border: 1px solid #CCC; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;  font-size: 12px; }  .tableizer-table td {  padding: 4px;  margin: 3px;  border: 1px solid #ccc; } .tableizer-table th {  background-color: #104E8B;   color: #FFF;  font-weight: bold; } </style>
<table class="tableizer-table"><tbody><tr class="tableizer-firstrow"><th>Rk</th><th>Player</th><th>Eff</th><th>Age</th><th>%done</th><th>Proj Car</th><th>Pts+Reb+Ast+StlX2+BlkX2-TO-FGmiss--halfFTmiss</th></tr><tr><td>1</td><td>Dwyane Wade</td><td>20864</td><td>33</td><td>93%</td><td>22434</td><td>18812+3824+4600+2670+1434--2679--7052-745</td></tr><tr><td>2</td><td>Maurice Lucas</td><td>20158</td><td></td><td>100%</td><td>20158</td><td>14857+9306+2498+1606+1318--2316--6652-459</td></tr><tr><td>3</td><td>Jimmy Butler</td><td>3871</td><td>25</td><td>25%</td><td>15484</td><td>2993+1093+516+660+216--271--1229-107</td></tr><tr><td>4</td><td>Doc Rivers</td><td>14614</td><td></td><td>100%</td><td>14614</td><td>9377+2625+4889+3126+702--1651--4121-333</td></tr><tr><td>5</td><td>Jim Chones</td><td>13785</td><td></td><td>100%</td><td>13785</td><td>9821+6427+1292+782+1548--1165--4590-330</td></tr><tr><td>6</td><td>Don Kojis</td><td>12991</td><td></td><td>100%</td><td>12991</td><td>9948+4555+1112+859+1718-0--4906-399</td></tr><tr><td>7</td><td>Jae Crowder</td><td>1929</td><td>24</td><td>18%</td><td>10714</td><td>1376+674+248+388+126--139--708-36</td></tr><tr><td>8</td><td>Wesley Matthews</td><td>6319</td><td>28</td><td>63%</td><td>10029</td><td>6294+1375+911+1010+162--604--2715-114</td></tr><tr><td>9</td><td>George Thompson</td><td>7520</td><td></td><td>100%</td><td>7520</td><td>8114+1457+1561+915+150--954--3395-328</td></tr><tr><td>10</td><td>Jerome Whitehead</td><td>6282</td><td></td><td>100%</td><td>6282</td><td>4423+3268+374+502+400--696--1832-157</td></tr><tr><td>11</td><td>Dean Meminger</td><td>3955</td><td></td><td>100%</td><td>3955</td><td>2552+1086+1046+484+56-0--1108-161</td></tr><tr><td>12</td><td>Larry McNeill</td><td>3502</td><td></td><td>100%</td><td>3502</td><td>2533+1440+225+366+156--71--1048-99</td></tr><tr><td>13</td><td>Jim McIlvaine</td><td>3227</td><td></td><td>100%</td><td>3227</td><td>1072+1243+105+272+1382--231--525-91</td></tr><tr><td>14</td><td>Tony Smith</td><td>3051</td><td></td><td>100%</td><td>3051</td><td>2504+735+881+638+158--442--1345-78</td></tr><tr><td>15</td><td>Earl Tatum</td><td>2893</td><td></td><td>100%</td><td>2893</td><td>2508+682+507+638+202--289--1306-49</td></tr><tr><td>16</td><td>Lloyd Walton</td><td>2448</td><td></td><td>100%</td><td>2448</td><td>1442+370+1243+528+56--422--720-49</td></tr><tr><td>17</td><td>Steve Novak</td><td>2083</td><td>32</td><td>91%</td><td>2289</td><td>2148+583+132+182+76--80--951-7</td></tr><tr><td>18</td><td>Chris Crawford</td><td>1662</td><td></td><td>100%</td><td>1662</td><td>1654+547+154+202+160--232--784-39</td></tr><tr><td>19</td><td>Travis Diener</td><td>1122</td><td></td><td>100%</td><td>1122</td><td>854+243+432+152+18--99--470-8</td></tr><tr><td>20</td><td>Bo Ellis</td><td>1031</td><td></td><td>100%</td><td>1031</td><td>613+482+113+138+168--145--312-26</td></tr><tr><td>21</td><td>Butch Lee</td><td>839</td><td></td><td>100%</td><td>839</td><td>773+137+307+174+2--164--362-28</td></tr><tr><td>22</td><td>Sam Worthen</td><td>399</td><td></td><td>100%</td><td>399</td><td>239+116+118+114+12--93--100-7</td></tr><tr><td>23</td><td>Amal McCaskill</td><td>374</td><td></td><td>100%</td><td>374</td><td>204+213+36+48+72--52--134-13</td></tr><tr><td>24</td><td>Bob Lackey</td><td>355</td><td></td><td>100%</td><td>355</td><td>413+164+137+2+0--121--206-34</td></tr><tr><td>25</td><td>Dwight Buycks</td><td>98</td><td>26</td><td>39%</td><td>251</td><td>95+35+24+22+0--22--55-1</td></tr><tr><td>26</td><td>Vander Blue</td><td>20</td><td>22</td><td>8%</td><td>250</td><td>27+12+9+6+0--8--23-3</td></tr><tr><td>27</td><td>Lazar Hayward</td><td>215</td><td></td><td>100%</td><td>215</td><td>207+90+35+34+16--28--132-7</td></tr><tr><td>28</td><td>Michael Wilson</td><td>146</td><td></td><td>100%</td><td>146</td><td>108+36+45+30+10--28--50-5</td></tr><tr><td>29</td><td>Tom Copa</td><td>73</td><td></td><td>100%</td><td>73</td><td>48+36+3+4+12--8--18-4</td></tr><tr><td>30</td><td>Bernard Toone</td><td>61</td><td></td><td>100%</td><td>61</td><td>55+34+12+8+10--16--41-1</td></tr><tr><td>31</td><td>Joe Thomas</td><td>47</td><td></td><td>100%</td><td>47</td><td>55+43+17+0+0-0--63-5</td></tr><tr><td>32</td><td>Brian Brunkhorst</td><td>29</td><td></td><td>100%</td><td>29</td><td>25+13+3+0+0--5--5-2</td></tr><tr><td>33</td><td>Jerel McNeal</td><td>9</td><td>28</td><td>63%</td><td>14</td><td>9+3+2+6+2--5--80</td></tr><tr><td>34</td><td>Allie McGuire</td><td>5</td><td></td><td>100%</td><td>5</td><td>4+2+1+0+0-0--20</td></tr><tr><td>35</td><td>Gene Berce</td><td>-2</td><td></td><td>100%</td><td>-2</td><td>10++2+0+0-0--11-2</td></tr><tr><td>36</td><td>Bill Downey</td><td>-2</td><td></td><td>100%</td><td>-2</td><td>0++0+0+0-0--20</td></tr><tr><td>37</td><td>Darius Johnson-Odom</td><td>-4</td><td>25</td><td>25%</td><td>-16</td><td>0+6+2+2+0--2--11-1</td></tr><tr><td>Rk</td><td>Player</td><td>Eff</td><td>Age</td><td>%done</td><td>Proj Car</td><td>Pts+Reb+Ast+StlX2+BlkX2-TO-FGmiss--halfFTmiss</td></tr></tbody></table>

Source: NBA Efficiency Projections on Butler Catching Wade or Lucas; All-Time MU-NBA Players Ranked

bamamarquettefan

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And as usual, I add the far simplified listing in place of the table that turns into a mess when it goes from Cracked Sidewalks to MUScoop.

Rk, Player, Proj Car
1, Dwyane Wade, 22434
2, Maurice Lucas, 20158
3, Jimmy Butler, 15484
4, Doc Rivers, 14614
5, Jim Chones, 13785
6, Don Kojis, 12991
7, Jae Crowder, 10714
8, Wesley Matthews, 10029
9, George Thompson, 7520
10, Jerome Whitehead, 6282
11, Dean Meminger, 3955
12, Larry McNeill, 3502
13, Jim McIlvaine, 3227
14, Tony Smith, 3051
15, Earl Tatum, 2893
16, Lloyd Walton, 2448
17, Steve Novak, 2289
18, Chris Crawford, 1662
19, Travis Diener, 1122
20, Bo Ellis, 1031
21, Butch Lee, 839
22, Sam Worthen, 399
23, Amal McCaskill, 374
24, Bob Lackey, 355
25, Dwight Buycks, 251
26, Vander Blue, 250
27, Lazar Hayward, 215
28, Michael Wilson, 146
29, Tom Copa, 73
30, Bernard Toone, 61
31, Joe Thomas, 47
32, Brian Brunkhorst, 29
33, Jerel McNeal, 14
34, Allie McGuire, 5
35, Gene Berce, -2
36, Bill Downey, -2
37, Darius Johnson-Odom, -16
The www.valueaddsports.com analysis of basketball, football and baseball players are intended to neither be too hot or too cold - hundreds immerse themselves in studies of stats not of interest to broader fan bases (too hot), while others still insist on pure observation (too cold).

brandx

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Guerrero is certainly correct to put Mo Lucas No. 2. In fact, the late great is in a virtual tie right now with Wade and well ahead of where any other player projects. With regular season production virtually even with Wade, you can add Lucas five All-Star appearances, and the credit many expert observers gave him the most credit for delivering the Trail Blazers the NBA title the same year MU took the college crown. Not enough to match Wade's titles and All-Star games - but enough to say he is DEFINITELY the second greatest player to come out of MU to date.


Lucas is probably my fave ever at MU, but to suggest he is almost the equal of Wade is just wrong.

Check any list of the top 100 NBA players ever and you will probably never see Lucas' name. Dwayne is a top 30 player for sure, maybe top 25.

Portland may not have won the championship without Mo', but Bill Walton was the star. The people giving Lucas the most credit for that team's success (and I have never heard any expert say that) are wrong. Walton was an all-time great. Without injuries that shortened his career, he would have been a top 10 all-time player. He may still rank top 25-30 all-time anyway. There is absolutely no comparison between Bill Walton & Maurice Lucas just as there is no comparison between Wade & Lucas.

bamamarquettefan

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Agree completely. When I wrote the Ultimate Hoops guide and rated based on a number of factors I had Mo as 7th all-time.

"Smooth Moves" was the boom i quoted in my book that stated that many experts.who were evaluating thought Mo was actually the bigger factor, but I've honestly never seen any footage from then and was only watching MU in the tournament my 7th grade year in Virginia.

However, even if Mo was that big a key in 1977, you are still talking a key part of 1/title vs 3/for Wade, a number of all-star games vs more for Wade etc. But while it is hard to compare Wade with the Ultimate intimidator. My only point is that when you use the basic tool used by NBA coaches just for quick math, Lucas is not only far ahead of every other MU grad but amazingly actually almost dead even with Wade - and for that reason it will take a lot for Jimmy to catch him at No.2 NBA career in my book - but I certainly will be thrilled if Jimmy does.
The www.valueaddsports.com analysis of basketball, football and baseball players are intended to neither be too hot or too cold - hundreds immerse themselves in studies of stats not of interest to broader fan bases (too hot), while others still insist on pure observation (too cold).

brandx

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Agree completely. When I wrote the Ultimate Hoops guide and rated based on a number of factors I had Mo as 7th all-time.

"Smooth Moves" was the boom i quoted in my book that stated that many experts.who were evaluating thought Mo was actually the bigger factor, but I've honestly never seen any footage from then and was only watching MU in the tournament my 7th grade year in Virginia.

However, even if Mo was that big a key in 1977, you are still talking a key part of 1/title vs 3/for Wade, a number of all-star games vs more for Wade etc. But while it is hard to compare Wade with the Ultimate intimidator. My only point is that when you use the basic tool used by NBA coaches just for quick math, Lucas is not only far ahead of every other MU grad but amazingly actually almost dead even with Wade - and for that reason it will take a lot for Jimmy to catch him at No.2 NBA career in my book - but I certainly will be thrilled if Jimmy does.

The only big quibble I have with your method is the doubling up on steals. It is just a weird category and not worthy of doubling, IMO.

I say this because all steals aren't equal. Some guys get steals because they play great defense. Other guys (Deonte comes to mind) get them because they are lazy defenders who hang out in the passing lanes and actually cost their team points as they rack up steals.