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Author Topic: Jimmy to Resign w/ Bulls ($95 million over 5 years)  (Read 10062 times)

Pakuni

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Re: Jimmy to Resign w/ Bulls ($95 million over 5 years)
« Reply #25 on: July 02, 2015, 11:44:51 AM »
You're comparing rookie year to rookie year, which makes no sense. Dirk was 19 as a rookie, Mirotic 23. Compare their year 23 seasons to each other (Dirk's fourth year). Dirk is head and shoulders better. I really like Mirotic. But he's no Dirk.


http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/n/nowitdi01.html

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/m/mirotni01.html

It makes more sense to compare a four-year NBA veteran to a rookie than a rookie to a rookie?
I respectfully disagree. NBA experience is a far more important factor than age.
Again - for the third time - I am not saying and have not said Niko= Dirk. But based on their respective rookie seasons, the comparison is not a ridiculous one. If Mirotic continues to progress as he did during his rookie season, he's a regular all-star.

WarriorFan

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Re: Jimmy to Resign w/ Bulls ($95 million over 5 years)
« Reply #26 on: July 02, 2015, 11:45:31 AM »
Now dump rose and get a pass-first PG who can shoot the 3... That plus a healthy Noah and the Bulls are a finals team.  No team with Rose will ever win anything.  Kinda like a Deron Williams in my book.  
"The meaning of life isn't gnashing our bicuspids over what comes after death but tasting the tiny moments that come before it."

Eldon

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Re: Jimmy to Resign w/ Bulls ($95 million over 5 years)
« Reply #27 on: July 02, 2015, 02:16:39 PM »
Damn, Jimmy, you just earned yourself another F in my book.  News like this should make even the Occupy Marquette crowd feel good.

Everything that kid did for us is being paid back a million-fold, and I honestly couldn't be prouder to be an MU alum and booster than I am right now.  To the extent anyone "deserves" 95 million big ones, nobody deserves it more.  As great as D Wade was (and still is today), there's no better ambassador for MU hoops than JFFB.

JFB just increased the income inequality in this country.  The Occupy Marquette folks may actually feel ashamed.

Eldon

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Re: Jimmy to Resign w/ Bulls ($95 million over 5 years)
« Reply #28 on: July 02, 2015, 02:20:07 PM »
Dammit. Hoiberg got another one of our players

Very nicely done

BostonMUaler

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Re: Jimmy to Resign w/ Bulls ($95 million over 5 years)
« Reply #29 on: July 02, 2015, 02:27:28 PM »
http://www.rollingstone.com/sports/features/jimmy-butler-on-singing-for-taylor-swift-and-winning-in-chicago-20150702
Great Article on Jimmy with rolling stone talking a lot about his aspiring music career!

4everwarriors

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Re: Jimmy to Resign w/ Bulls ($95 million over 5 years)
« Reply #30 on: July 02, 2015, 04:15:44 PM »
Well, Jimmy can buy his own recordin' studio and label now, hey?
"Give 'Em Hell, Al"

brandx

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Re: Jimmy to Resign w/ Bulls ($95 million over 5 years)
« Reply #31 on: July 02, 2015, 09:06:20 PM »
lol. comparing mirotic to dirk. hilarious!

+1000

brandx

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Re: Jimmy to Resign w/ Bulls ($95 million over 5 years)
« Reply #32 on: July 02, 2015, 09:17:35 PM »
Compare advanced stats in their respective rookie seasons (i.e. win shares, win shares per 48, value over replacement player, efficiency rating, true shooting percentage, etc.) and get back to me.
Long story short, Mirotic is better in pretty much every category.
Not saying at this point that Mirotic = Dirk, but the comparison is not outlandish based on what we've seen so far.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/n/nowitdi01.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/m/mirotni01.html

Then there's this:


Mirotic leads all rookies in both win shares and player efficiency rating. Despite leading the rookie class in win shares, Mirotic’s value is still hidden due to his somewhat limited playing time. Looking at win shares per 48 minutes (a stat devised by Basketball-Reference.com that measures a player's overall contribution to winning), Mirotic is having a historic season for a rookie.
In a vacuum, his 0.162 win shares per 48 minutes may not wow you. But comparing that value to those of past rookie of the year winners might change your tune. Based on this metric, Mirotic is having a better season than 25 of the last 30 rookie of the year winners. The only ones which rated higher during their award-winning rookie campaigns? You may have heard of them-- David Robinson, Michael Jordan, Tim Duncan, Chris Paul and Shaquille O'Neal.


http://espn.go.com/blog/statsinfo/post/_/id/104114/nikola-mirotic-the-best-kept-secret-in-the-nba


Aah... the shortcoming/uselessness of stats.

I see the names Lillard, Irving, Durrant, Griffin, Lebron, Rose, Gasol, Stoudemire, Ewing, Richmond, Coleman, Johnson, Weber, Hill, Kidd, etc. among ROYs in the last 30 years. It is unlikely he will ever accomplish what any of these players have.

Any stat showing Mirotic had a better year than any of these guys is a questionable - or worse - stat.

And to make it even worse, every one of the rookies I mention played against top opponents. The majority of Mirotic's minutes were against backups.

But, hey, if a stat says he was better as a rookie than Lebron, I guess it has must be so.

Herman Cain

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Re: Jimmy to Resign w/ Bulls ($95 million over 5 years)
« Reply #33 on: July 02, 2015, 09:34:12 PM »
Great news for Jimmy. Kid works hard and shows up in the big games. MU looking good.
Winning is overrated. The only time it is really important is in surgery and war.
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Silkk the Shaka

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Re: Jimmy to Resign w/ Bulls ($95 million over 5 years)
« Reply #34 on: July 02, 2015, 10:02:27 PM »
It makes more sense to compare a four-year NBA veteran to a rookie than a rookie to a rookie?
I respectfully disagree. NBA experience is a far more important factor than age.
Again - for the third time - I am not saying and have not said Niko= Dirk. But based on their respective rookie seasons, the comparison is not a ridiculous one. If Mirotic continues to progress as he did during his rookie season, he's a regular all-star.

http://harvardsportsanalysis.org/2015/05/player-progression-in-the-nba/

Player improvement between age 19 and 23 is drastic. But whatevs.

Pakuni

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Re: Jimmy to Resign w/ Bulls ($95 million over 5 years)
« Reply #35 on: July 03, 2015, 08:12:55 AM »
http://harvardsportsanalysis.org/2015/05/player-progression-in-the-nba/

Player improvement between age 19 and 23 is drastic. But whatevs.

Except, a key point of this analysis/study that you linked that you're either ignoring or are unaware of is that it examines progress of only players in the NBA from start to finish of the analysis. It is irrelevant to the discussion we're having here.

Taken to it's logical conclusion, your argument here is that a player who spends four years in college and enters the NBA at 22 - like Frank Kaminsky - enters the league next year with the same amount of development and on the same level as fellow 22-year-old Anthony Davis, and is actually further along than three-year veteran - but only 21-year-old - Andre Drummond.
That's ludicrous.
Again, NBA experience counts way more than age when it comes to player development.

Pakuni

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Re: Jimmy to Resign w/ Bulls ($95 million over 5 years)
« Reply #36 on: July 03, 2015, 08:18:07 AM »

Aah... the shortcoming/uselessness of stats.

I see the names Lillard, Irving, Durrant, Griffin, Lebron, Rose, Gasol, Stoudemire, Ewing, Richmond, Coleman, Johnson, Weber, Hill, Kidd, etc. among ROYs in the last 30 years. It is unlikely he will ever accomplish what any of these players have.

Any stat showing Mirotic had a better year than any of these guys is a questionable - or worse - stat.

And to make it even worse, every one of the rookies I mention played against top opponents. The majority of Mirotic's minutes were against backups.

But, hey, if a stat says he was better as a rookie than Lebron, I guess it has must be so.


OK, if things like advanced stats are "useless" in measuring a player's worth, how do you do so? Feelz?
Stats, even advanced stats, shouldn't be the be-all and end-all of judging a player's worth, but they're hardly worthless, and shouldn't be dismissed simply because they reveal something you don't like.

FWIW, you're absolutely wrong about Mirotic vs backups.
The fact is, when he played his best late in the season, he was playing starter's minuntes (30+ MPG in March) against starters, and torched them (20.8 ppg, 7.6 rpg).
« Last Edit: July 03, 2015, 08:45:29 AM by Pakuni »

Silkk the Shaka

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Re: Jimmy to Resign w/ Bulls ($95 million over 5 years)
« Reply #37 on: July 03, 2015, 09:04:09 AM »
Except, a key point of this analysis/study that you linked that you're either ignoring or are unaware of is that it examines progress of only players in the NBA from start to finish of the analysis. It is irrelevant to the discussion we're having here.

Taken to it's logical conclusion, your argument here is that a player who spends four years in college and enters the NBA at 22 - like Frank Kaminsky - enters the league next year with the same amount of development and on the same level as fellow 22-year-old Anthony Davis, and is actually further along than three-year veteran - but only 21-year-old - Andre Drummond.
That's ludicrous.
Again, NBA experience counts way more than age when it comes to player development.

No. I would compare Kaminsky to a 19 year old coming out now and say he has a way lower ceiling. If projecting the two, I would inflate the 19 year old's rookie season by a lot, and Frank's by a little. They would both have 1 year in the league, but the 19 year old would be far lower on the development curve than Kaminsky, so his production is likely to spike over the next few years while Kaminsky's will likely increase gradually then level off much sooner.

Dirk is the 19 year old in that scenario, Mirotic is Kaminsky. And I like Mirotic! I'm just saying comparing his rookie year to Nowitzki's is a false equivalence.

Pakuni

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Re: Jimmy to Resign w/ Bulls ($95 million over 5 years)
« Reply #38 on: July 03, 2015, 10:56:38 AM »
No. I would compare Kaminsky to a 19 year old coming out now and say he has a way lower ceiling. If projecting the two, I would inflate the 19 year old's rookie season by a lot, and Frank's by a little. They would both have 1 year in the league, but the 19 year old would be far lower on the development curve than Kaminsky, so his production is likely to spike over the next few years while Kaminsky's will likely increase gradually then level off much sooner.

Dirk is the 19 year old in that scenario, Mirotic is Kaminsky. And I like Mirotic! I'm just saying comparing his rookie year to Nowitzki's is a false equivalence.

Had Anthony Davis remained at Kentucky for four seasons and only starting his NBA career in the fall, how would he fare against the Anthony Davis who just signed the biggest contract in league history? Even matchup? Would they, for all intents, be the same player (because they are, after all, the same age)?
Or would three seasons playing 200+ games against grown men who happen to be the best players on the planet, give the latter Anthony Davis a distinct edge over the one who played 35-40 games per season against primarily teenagers, most of whom will never make it to the NBA?
« Last Edit: July 03, 2015, 11:07:12 AM by Pakuni »

brandx

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Re: Jimmy to Resign w/ Bulls ($95 million over 5 years)
« Reply #39 on: July 03, 2015, 11:06:59 AM »
OK, if things like advanced stats are "useless" in measuring a player's worth, how do you do so? Feelz?
Stats, even advanced stats, shouldn't be the be-all and end-all of judging a player's worth, but they're hardly worthless, and shouldn't be dismissed simply because they reveal something you don't like.

FWIW, you're absolutely wrong about Mirotic vs backups.
The fact is, when he played his best late in the season, he was playing starter's minuntes (30+ MPG in March) against starters, and torched them (20.8 ppg, 7.6 rpg).

I am a big fan of advanced stats, but they are like any other stats where you can pick and choose to show a player in the best or worst light.

I think we probably agree on the Bulls' usage or lack thereof of Mirotic for most of the season. But, in real life, his season was nowhere near the rookie seasons of the names that I mentioned.

Juan Anderson's Mixtape

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Re: Jimmy to Resign w/ Bulls ($95 million over 5 years)
« Reply #40 on: July 03, 2015, 01:21:13 PM »
NBA experience does matter but I'd say age is a much bigger factor.  Let's take a look at Frank Kaminsky and Anthony Davis when we can compare them controlling for NBA experience: their freshmen year of college.

Davis:           14.2 ppg   10.4  rpg   1.3 apg   1.4 spg   4.7 bpg    32.0 mpg    .623/.150/.709  (FG%/3FG%/FT%)
Kaminsky:       1.8 ppg     1.4 rpg    0.3 apg   0.1 spg   0.4 bpg     7.7 mpg    .411/.286/.500

Davis is not even a month older than Kaminsky so their ages are almost identical.  Yes, Davis played 4 times the minutes but even on per 40 minute basis Kaminsky tops out at 9.3 ppg, 7.4 rpg, 1.9 bpg.  Davis beats all these with ease in just 32 minutes.  It took Kaminsky two years to get even close to what Davis did as a frosh.

Now I don't have any stats for Nowitzki and Mirotic that can be controlled for both age and NBA experience.  But the Davis vs Kaminsky comparison shows the importance of age.  Kaminsky was behind at age 19 and remains way behind at 22.  That is why Towns and Okafor go 1 and 3 as frosh while Kaminsky goes 9th as a senior.  To me it is clear that comparing Mirotic at 23 to a 19 year old Nowitzki is not the best way to measure Mirotic's upside.  Mirotic is more comparable to Ersan Ilyasova.



withoutbias

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Re: Jimmy to Resign w/ Bulls ($95 million over 5 years)
« Reply #41 on: July 03, 2015, 02:34:31 PM »
Now dump rose and get a pass-first PG who can shoot the 3... That plus a healthy Noah and the Bulls are a finals team.  No team with Rose will ever win anything.  Kinda like a Deron Williams in my book.  

sorry, but that's not happening.  and even if it did, the bulls are not beating the cavs, just like they were never beating the heat.

withoutbias

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Re: Jimmy to Resign w/ Bulls ($95 million over 5 years)
« Reply #42 on: July 03, 2015, 02:41:58 PM »
NBA experience does matter but I'd say age is a much bigger factor.  Let's take a look at Frank Kaminsky and Anthony Davis when we can compare them controlling for NBA experience: their freshmen year of college.

Davis:           14.2 ppg   10.4  rpg   1.3 apg   1.4 spg   4.7 bpg    32.0 mpg    .623/.150/.709  (FG%/3FG%/FT%)
Kaminsky:       1.8 ppg     1.4 rpg    0.3 apg   0.1 spg   0.4 bpg     7.7 mpg    .411/.286/.500

Davis is not even a month older than Kaminsky so their ages are almost identical.  Yes, Davis played 4 times the minutes but even on per 40 minute basis Kaminsky tops out at 9.3 ppg, 7.4 rpg, 1.9 bpg.  Davis beats all these with ease in just 32 minutes.  It took Kaminsky two years to get even close to what Davis did as a frosh.

Now I don't have any stats for Nowitzki and Mirotic that can be controlled for both age and NBA experience.  But the Davis vs Kaminsky comparison shows the importance of age.  Kaminsky was behind at age 19 and remains way behind at 22.  That is why Towns and Okafor go 1 and 3 as frosh while Kaminsky goes 9th as a senior.  To me it is clear that comparing Mirotic at 23 to a 19 year old Nowitzki is not the best way to measure Mirotic's upside.  Mirotic is more comparable to Ersan Ilyasova.




that's actually a pretty solid comparison.

rocket surgeon

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Re: Jimmy to Resign w/ Bulls ($95 million over 5 years)
« Reply #43 on: July 03, 2015, 10:18:30 PM »
over $1.4 billion on the 1st day of FA

not sure Middleton is worth $70mm

seriously!  he's good, but $70m good? 

jfb earned everything he's getting, except one thing-true story-he kept asking my now, daughter-in-law out and she kept telling him, jimmy-you're a great guy, but i don't date b-ball playas...
don't...don't don't don't don't

RushmoreAcademy

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Re: Jimmy to Resign w/ Bulls ($95 million over 5 years)
« Reply #44 on: July 03, 2015, 10:55:25 PM »
seriously!  he's good, but $70m good? 

jfb earned everything he's getting, except one thing-true story-he kept asking my now, daughter-in-law out and she kept telling him, jimmy-you're a great guy, but i don't date b-ball playas...

I was at a cookout today and my friend's gf was telling us a story about how Jimmy really wanted to go out with her sister.  Either Jimmy likes to just play the high percentage game of asking out as many ladies as he can, or people like to besmirch his good name.

rocket surgeon

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Re: Jimmy to Resign w/ Bulls ($95 million over 5 years)
« Reply #45 on: July 04, 2015, 05:13:45 AM »
I was at a cookout today and my friend's gf was telling us a story about how Jimmy really wanted to go out with her sister.  Either Jimmy likes to just play the high percentage game of asking out as many ladies as he can, or people like to besmirch his good name.
[/quote

no besmirching here at all.  it was all very respectful as there was no ill-will involved. she and a couple of her other friends tended bar and waitressed at a few of the popular hangouts downtown where all the b-ball guys would troll around.  so they all saw these guys quite a bit. they actually joke about it as jfb almost considered dropping hoops so he would have a better chance.  but her rule was-NO B-BALL PLAYAS.   my now daughter-in-law was also a bucks energee dancer while she was going to uwm and living at home for a brief time.  andrew bogott kept calling her.  her dad finally picked up the phone and told him never f"ing call her again.  i'm not bragging at all, but my son roped in a real "stunner"  she is a great girl that i'm proud to have as my daughter. she's in the world of finance now and doing very well. while she was at a bank up in mequon(where my son met her),she got to know buzz("i need to talk to my money man") and his wife pretty well.  they were both regulars there as they needed someplace to put there "stuff. they liked her so much that they were always asking her to baby sit their kids.   fun to go out with her, like in vegas-i've never seen more cases of whiplash. 
don't...don't don't don't don't

withoutbias

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Re: Jimmy to Resign w/ Bulls ($95 million over 5 years)
« Reply #46 on: July 04, 2015, 09:55:31 AM »
did i not say over and over that jimmy will go where the money takes him? all this talk about wanting a short term deal and wanting to go to LAL was cute, but he was never taking anything less than a penny below the most he was going to be offered.