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Author Topic: Will the stock market crash (June 24 2016 Update)?  (Read 117893 times)

MU82

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Re: Will the stock market crash (June 24 2016 Update)?
« Reply #400 on: June 28, 2016, 11:22:07 AM »
You're like the old window washer joke ...

What did the window washer that fell from the 50th floor say as he passed by the 5th floor?

So far so good.

And you're like Chicken Little fable.

Do let the rest of the uneducated masses know when the sky really has fallen, OK?
“It’s not how white men fight.” - Tucker Carlson

GooooMarquette

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Re: Will the stock market crash (June 24 2016 Update)?
« Reply #401 on: June 28, 2016, 11:30:31 AM »
Turns out the 3 million online "signatures" for a second referendum is a hacked POS.  But this does not mattered, like the "What is the EU" google searches (which is the case after every event with google) the media bias is so one0ded against BRexit that all objectivity has been lost.


Second referendum petition: Inquiry removes at least 77,000 fake signatures, as hackers claim responsibility for 'prank'

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/26/concern-as-online-call-for-second-brexit-vote-gains-more-than-39/



In isolationist North Korea, one of the least internet-connected countries in the world, 23,778 people had apparently gone online to express their frustration at the UK’s decision to quit the EU.

Located 800 miles south east of the Falklands, and with a permanent population of zero, the South Atlantic British Overseas Territory of South Georgia and the Sandwich Islands was responsible for more than 3,000 signatures

That was some 300 more than those coming from the British Antarctic Territory, which though home to some 400 researchers also has no settled population of its own.

Signatories are also recorded in places as far flung as the Caribbean island of Aruba (101), Bermuda (564), China (432), Hong Kong (2,089), Japan (742) Venezuela (24) and the South Pacific Islands of Tuvalu (18), Wallis and Fortuna (8) and Vanuatu (31).

They included 18,734 signatures from France, 11,816 from Spain, 7,031 from Germany, 3,139 from the Netherlands and 2,492 Italians and 4,122 residents of Gibraltar – which came out strongly in favour of Remain in Wednesday's momentous poll.

Some 2,326 Swiss-based supporters backed a second referendum on EU membership, as did 279 residents of Turkey, 3,746 in New Zealand and 11,971 in Australia.

Support was less pronounced in Western Sahara (3) Mongolia (3), Somalia (4), Guatemala (4) and French Polynesia (6)

Overall, close to 2.5 million signatures had been added from within the UK by midday on Sunday, making up an overwhelming proportion of the whole.

So 77,000 hacked signatures of a reported number of over 4 million (last I saw) makes the whole thing a "hacked POS"?  Given the lax voter ID laws we have here in the USA, I'd bet that 77,000 number pales in comparison to the ineligible votes in any national election.  Are we to ignore all national election results now?

And your comment still ignores the fact that the petition was started by a person who voted for the Brexit, and the great likelihood that many (most?) of the signatories are actually British citizens.

You do realize that Parliament is required to consider the petition even if only 100,000 signatures are legit, right?
« Last Edit: June 28, 2016, 11:33:32 AM by GooooMarquette »

Tugg Speedman

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Re: Will the stock market crash (June 24 2016 Update)?
« Reply #402 on: June 28, 2016, 11:35:37 AM »
Labour leader Jeremy Crobyn lost a no confidence vote today176 to 40.  20 of his cabinet ministers have resigned.

He still refuses to step down as the head of the labour party.

It was a non-binding vote ... See the chaos and crisis (within the Labour Party) that comes from ignoring non-binding votes.

Tugg Speedman

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Re: Will the stock market crash (June 24 2016 Update)?
« Reply #403 on: June 28, 2016, 11:37:38 AM »
So 77,000 hacked signatures of a reported number of over 4 million (last I saw) makes the whole thing a "hacked POS"?  Given the lax voter ID laws we have here in the USA, I'd bet that 77,000 number pales in comparison to the ineligible votes in any national election.  Are we to ignore all national election results now?

And your comment still ignores the fact that the petition was started by a person who voted for the Brexit, and the great likelihood that many (most?) of the signatories are actually British citizens.

You do realize that Parliament is required to consider the petition even if only 100,000 signatures are legit, right?

Cameron said they would consider it and then not have a second referendum.  So that is done.

It is a hacked POS, if they dig in harder, the number of fraudulent signatures is goi g to be a lot higher than77,000.

GooooMarquette

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Re: Will the stock market crash (June 24 2016 Update)?
« Reply #404 on: June 28, 2016, 11:46:36 AM »
Cameron said they would consider it and then not have a second referendum.  So that is done.

It is a hacked POS, if they dig in harder, the number of fraudulent signatures is goi g to be a lot higher than77,000.

Yes, there will very likely be more than 77,000 fraudulent signatures.  But likewise, the number of legitimate signatures is very likely to be far greater than 100,000...and that is the only number that really matters.

You yourself have been spending months telling us how the conventional wisdom of politics and politicians are changing dramatically...and yet you take Cameron's statement as the gospel truth.  So which is it:  we don't know what's going to happen next (your mantra for the past several months), or we can be sure that Cameron is correct (perhaps your new mantra?!?)?

Tugg Speedman

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Re: Will the stock market crash (June 24 2016 Update)?
« Reply #405 on: June 28, 2016, 12:27:08 PM »
Yes, there will very likely be more than 77,000 fraudulent signatures.  But likewise, the number of legitimate signatures is very likely to be far greater than 100,000...and that is the only number that really matters.

You yourself have been spending months telling us how the conventional wisdom of politics and politicians are changing dramatically...and yet you take Cameron's statement as the gospel truth.  So which is it:  we don't know what's going to happen next (your mantra for the past several months), or we can be sure that Cameron is correct (perhaps your new mantra?!?)?

Cameron his leaving on September 2.  Corbyn just lost a no confidence vote today.  So who is going to approve a new referendum?  BTW, the BRexit referendum was agreed to in 2013 and took three years to happen.

Effectively the UK has no functioning government as it has a caretaker PM and a Labour leader that will be forced to leave.  In the long history of UK politics, this has never happened before.

And in the middle of all this you think a do-over vote will be approved.

Get a grip, it's over, BRexit won and it is going to happen.  And all the chaos that it will bring will follow from it.

And why did BRexit happen ... I will quote you quoting me.

You yourself have been spending months telling us how the conventional wisdom of politics and politicians are changing dramatically.


We all like to say the words and then continue as if nothing has changed.

GooooMarquette

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Re: Will the stock market crash (June 24 2016 Update)?
« Reply #406 on: June 28, 2016, 12:36:39 PM »
Here's an interesting tidbit from none other than Nigel Farage - a key Brexit proponent - shortly before the vote.  He was quoted as saying that if "Remain" won 52-48, there would be "unfinished business."

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/nigel-farage-eu-referendum_uk_576e6585e4b08d2c56393f12

So even a supporter of Brexit acknowledged that a close result wouldn't necessarily be a #donedeal.

This is totally uncharted territory, so it's naive to think that a revote is beyond the realm of possibility.

Tugg Speedman

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Re: Will the stock market crash (June 24 2016 Update)?
« Reply #407 on: June 28, 2016, 12:44:41 PM »
Here's an interesting tidbit from none other than Nigel Farage - a key Brexit proponent - shortly before the vote.  He was quoted as saying that if "Remain" won 52-48, there would be "unfinished business."

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/nigel-farage-eu-referendum_uk_576e6585e4b08d2c56393f12

So even a supporter of Brexit acknowledged that a close result wouldn't necessarily be a #donedeal.

This is totally uncharted territory, so it's naive to think that a revote is beyond the realm of possibility.

You're grasping for straws.

If Hillary wins 52% 48%, and the Trump supporters riot and we have days of tear gas and chaos, will you give them a revote too.

Elections matter, BRexit won.  Everyone in UK politics is getting kicked out. 

What will happen next?  Too new parties will form, a pro and anti EU party.  Then years later, after the UK is out of the EU, the voters can either vote in the Pro-EU party or continue with the anti-EU party.

So, yes in 5 to 10 years the UK can get an effective revote, not next week.  Allowing a revote next week is the single most destructive thing the UK can do.  Elections matter and if the "elite" look like they want to invalidate an election because they don't like the outcome, nothing short of a revolution will commence.
« Last Edit: June 28, 2016, 12:47:49 PM by Heisenberg »

GooooMarquette

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Re: Will the stock market crash (June 24 2016 Update)?
« Reply #408 on: June 28, 2016, 12:46:40 PM »
You're grasping for straws.

If Hillary wins 52% 48%, and the Trump supporters riot and we have days of tear gas and chaos, will you give them a revote too.

Elections matter, BRexit won.  Everyone in UK politics is getting kicked out. 

Where is what will happen.  Too new parties will form, a pro and anti EU party.  Then years later, after the UK is out of the EU, the voters can either vote in the Pro-EU party or continue with the anti-EU party.

So, yes in 5 to 10 years the UK can get an effective revote, not next week.  Allowing a revote next week is the single most destructive thing the UK can do.  Elections matter and if the "elite" look like they want to invalidate an election because they don't like the outcome, nothing short of a revolution will commence.

So Mr. Uncertainty is suddenly certain.  Why the sudden and dramatic change?

Tugg Speedman

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Re: Will the stock market crash (June 24 2016 Update)?
« Reply #409 on: June 28, 2016, 12:49:47 PM »
So Mr. Uncertainty is suddenly certain.  Why the sudden and dramatic change?

Because elections matter.  And while you are holding out for crushing the democratic process, and vote and vote and vote until the elites get what they want, I'm not ready to call for the end of western Civilization.

Do you understand how unbelievably dangerous this is?
« Last Edit: June 28, 2016, 12:52:16 PM by Heisenberg »

Dr. Blackheart

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Re: Will the stock market crash (June 24 2016 Update)?
« Reply #410 on: June 28, 2016, 12:55:15 PM »
So when we vote down a school or library referendum, we don't have to keep voting on it year after year, right? 

GooooMarquette

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Re: Will the stock market crash (June 24 2016 Update)?
« Reply #411 on: June 28, 2016, 01:24:25 PM »
Because elections matter.  And while you are holding out for crushing the democratic process, and vote and vote and vote until the elites get what they want, I'm not ready to call for the end of western Civilization.

Do you understand how unbelievably dangerous this is?

First of all, it was a referendum...and a non-binding one, at that.  Do you understand the difference between a non-binding referendum and an election? 

The rules are the rules, and it was recognized all along that the referendum was non-binding.  The UK Has a process to make referendums binding, but chose not to do that.  So how would it end western civilization if the UK continues to follow the processes for dealing with the results of this type of process...which includes the right to request UK withdrawal from the EU, declining to issue such a call, or asking for another referendum.

I'm saying they should follow the rules, not break them.  That means the decision has not yet been made, and there are still options for Parliament.

Tugg Speedman

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Re: Will the stock market crash (June 24 2016 Update)?
« Reply #412 on: June 28, 2016, 01:34:51 PM »
First of all, it was a referendum...and a non-binding one, at that.  Do you understand the difference between a non-binding referendum and an election? 

The rules are the rules, and it was recognized all along that the referendum was non-binding.  The UK Has a process to make referendums binding, but chose not to do that.  So how would it end western civilization if the UK continues to follow the processes for dealing with the results of this type of process...which includes the right to request UK withdrawal from the EU, declining to issue such a call, or asking for another referendum.

I'm saying they should follow the rules, not break them.  That means the decision has not yet been made, and there are still options for Parliament.

You do realize that elections are also non-binding.

http://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=47927.msg848127#msg848127

So the UK followed the rules and BRexit won.  Game over. 

You're playing with fire and too naive to realize what your doing. 

72% of the voting population cast a vote, the highest turnout on 24 years.  Did anyone tell them it was non-binding and did not count?

The PM (Cameron) resigned because of the results.  Did he know it was a non-binding referendum that could be ignored. 

The head of the Labour party (Corbyn) lost a no-confidence vote today.  Did he know it was a non-binding referendum that could be ignored. 

The UK is not having it worst political crisis in its history.   Don't they know it was a non-binding referendum that could be ignored. 
« Last Edit: June 28, 2016, 01:38:03 PM by Heisenberg »

Tugg Speedman

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Re: Will the stock market crash (June 24 2016 Update)?
« Reply #413 on: June 28, 2016, 01:49:11 PM »
Boris Johnson's HQ as the EU referendum result comes in.

<a href="http://www.youtube.com/v/a6HNXtdvVQ&amp;" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="bbc_link bbc_flash_disabled new_win">http://www.youtube.com/v/a6HNXtdvVQ&amp;</a>

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-a6HNXtdvVQ&app=desktop

GooooMarquette

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Re: Will the stock market crash (June 24 2016 Update)?
« Reply #414 on: June 28, 2016, 01:53:48 PM »
Correction - some elections/votes/referenda are non-binding.  In the case of the electoral college, it has been well documented that the electoral process might not yield the same result as the non-binding popular vote...and it has not caused the end of western civilization.

In this case, my opinion is that Parliament should follow the rules of the non-binding referendum just like the electoral college does with the popular vote...which means it's up to Parliament to decide what to do next.

My bottom line point stands - there is a significant difference between a process which was known from the beginning to be non-binding, and one that is binding by law.  In the case of a binding process, you are done once the votes have been counted.  And in the case of non-binding ones, it's up to the respective decision-making authority to follow the process through the next steps.  Game on, Parliament!

Tugg Speedman

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Re: Will the stock market crash (June 24 2016 Update)?
« Reply #415 on: June 28, 2016, 02:04:08 PM »
Correction - some elections/votes/referenda are non-binding.  In the case of the electoral college, it has been well documented that the electoral process might not yield the same result as the non-binding popular vote...and it has not caused the end of western civilization.

In this case, my opinion is that Parliament should follow the rules of the non-binding referendum just like the electoral college does with the popular vote...which means it's up to Parliament to decide what to do next.

My bottom line point stands - there is a significant difference between a process which was known from the beginning to be non-binding, and one that is binding by law.  In the case of a binding process, you are done once the votes have been counted.  And in the case of non-binding ones, it's up to the respective decision-making authority to follow the process through the next steps.  Game on, Parliament!

You want a dictatorship run by elites pretending to be a democracy.  Keep voting until we get the results Goldman Sachs approves of.

Game On Parliament ... have you noticed that everyone is resigning.  Who is going to do this destroying of western democracy that you want?

GooooMarquette

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Re: Will the stock market crash (June 24 2016 Update)?
« Reply #416 on: June 28, 2016, 02:12:39 PM »
You want a dictatorship run by elites pretending to be a democracy.  Keep voting until we get the results Goldman Sachs approves of.

Game On Parliament ... have you noticed that everyone is resigning.  Who is going to do this destroying of western democracy that you want?

In your opinion...why did they choose to make the vote non-binding, when UK law also provides a clear mechanism for a binding one?  If the intent was for Parliament not to have any say over the final result, the vote would have just been binding from the start. 

You want Parliament to ignore the fact that a decision was made to have a non-binding referendum.  I want to preserve western democracy by following the rules that were established in advance.

mu03eng

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Re: Will the stock market crash (June 24 2016 Update)?
« Reply #417 on: June 28, 2016, 02:47:43 PM »
Heisenburg you are too good at this, not sure why you are wasting your talents on a free message board.

"A Plan? Oh man, I hate plans. That means were gonna have to do stuff. Can't we just have a strategy......or a mission statement."

MU82

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Re: Will the stock market crash (June 24 2016 Update)?
« Reply #418 on: June 28, 2016, 03:18:41 PM »
Heisy knows all - just ask him! (Of course, he was CERTAIN Hillary wouldn't be the Dem nominee, but even Jesus made a mistake when he turned water into that crappy boxed wine.)

Thanks to Heisy, I just sold all of my stocks and buried the cash in my bomb shelter.

Brexit is here, and it will be 10 times worse than the Great Recession, the Great Depression, the dot-com bust, Black Monday and the aftermath of 9/11 ... combined!!!

DOOMED!

DOOMED, I SAY!!!

RUN FOR YOUR LIVES!!!!!!!!!!!!
“It’s not how white men fight.” - Tucker Carlson

Tugg Speedman

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Re: Will the stock market crash (June 24 2016 Update)?
« Reply #419 on: June 28, 2016, 03:34:10 PM »
Heisy knows all - just ask him! (Of course, he was CERTAIN Hillary wouldn't be the Dem nominee, but even Jesus made a mistake when he turned water into that crappy boxed wine.)

Thanks to Heisy, I just sold all of my stocks and buried the cash in my bomb shelter.

Brexit is here, and it will be 10 times worse than the Great Recession, the Great Depression, the dot-com bust, Black Monday and the aftermath of 9/11 ... combined!!!

DOOMED!

DOOMED, I SAY!!!

RUN FOR YOUR LIVES!!!!!!!!!!!!

You're too far gone trolling to understand what is happening.  Epic things are happening in the political world and it so bothers you that you DEMAND I apologize for not getting everything right.

Ok, I apologize for not getting everything correct.

Here is another prediction.  This will end when you believe in God again.


MU82

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Re: Will the stock market crash (June 24 2016 Update)?
« Reply #420 on: June 28, 2016, 03:56:57 PM »
You're too far gone trolling to understand what is happening.  Epic things are happening in the political world and it so bothers you that you DEMAND I apologize for not getting everything right.

Ok, I apologize for not getting everything correct.

Here is another prediction.  This will end when you believe in God again.

What will end?

Heisy ... it doesn't bother me or anybody else that you are not always correct.

What is a tad annoying is that you THINK you are always correct. It's rarely gray with you, almost always black and white.
“It’s not how white men fight.” - Tucker Carlson

brandx

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Re: Will the stock market crash (June 24 2016 Update)?
« Reply #421 on: June 28, 2016, 05:07:50 PM »
You're too far gone trolling to understand what is happening.  Epic things are happening in the political world

Epic things are always happening in the political world. Never, ever been a time when it was different.

Tugg Speedman

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Re: Will the stock market crash (June 24 2016 Update)?
« Reply #422 on: June 28, 2016, 05:32:15 PM »
What will end?

Heisy ... it doesn't bother me or anybody else that you are not always correct.

What is a tad annoying is that you THINK you are always correct. It's rarely gray with you, almost always black and white.

A note I sent to my "group" a few says ago ... edited for this board.

The bull market of the last 30 years has been built on globalization.  That is the movement of people and products around the world in search of efficiencies and lower costs.  This has been the basis of ever rising stock prices since the mega bull market began on August 12, 1982.

Until 2008 we only saw isolated instances of unhappiness with globalization.  The NAFTA debate, the violent protests in Seattle in 1999 at the WTO meeting and so on.  Even though globalization hurt the poor and unskilled (because their jobs were shipped to lower costs countries) it's march continued.  The reason (my theory) because everyone thought the governments and organizations promoting globalization were perceived to be fair.  Even the losers, while unhappy they drew the short straw, tolerated it.

For instance we had a recession in 2000.  People lost their jobs and opportunities failed.  It created unhappiness.  But when surveying the situation we saw Enron executives go to jail, Arthur Anderson (Enron's accountant) liquidated as punishment for Enron and all the 1999/2000 dotcom billionaires lost everything.  In other words the 2000 recession, like all them before, were equally unfair to all.  No one got special treatment.

Then 2008 happened (and will remain the most important year of our lifetime).  What was 2008?  When things got really bad, really bad, politicians bailed out the rich and powerful and  screwed everyone else (rich and powerful is now short-handed as Goldman Sachs).

The problem was governments and organizations that promoted globalization never explained why the bailouts were necessary.  Because they did not, or could not, they lost credibility.  This is critical important to understand ... because this explanation was never offered, the conclusion was they are corrupt and took care of their powerful friends and threw everyone else to the wolves.  Now no one believes government officials or "experts" telling us what policy is appropriate.  The conclusion is they are either lying or conflicted and telling us what is best from their personal situation, not everyone as a whole.

The backlash to 2008 thanks to the inability to explain why the bailouts were necessary was immediate.  The tea party (they hate the bailouts and blame the Government) Occupy Wall Street (they hate the bailouts and blame Wall Street).  The Arab Spring (an overthrow of the establishment), the rise of the right-wing nationalist parties in throughout Europe, Donald Trump, Bernie Sanders and now BRexit are all part of a larger whole.

Since government and organizations are corrupt, they cannot be reformed, they must be replaced.  This is why no amount of "reason" can change anyone's mind.  No one cares about Trump's inconsistencies, they don't care who "pooh-bahs" endorse (does anyone care that George Will is no longer a republican?  Is it actually a good thing that Hank Paulson endorsed Hillary, I say no), and no one listens to "facts" anymore as they are now just political spin.   That is why all the arguments about sending 350 million pounds a week to the EU that could be used to pay for national health worked in the BRexit win.  Since no one is credible anymore, no one can refute this obviously incorrect claims.

We have also changed our politics as well.  We no longer vote on a left (democrat) to right (republican) continuum.  It is now and establishment/non-establishment continuum.    We want bomb throwers and people to turn the tables over.  The system is corrupt and we need it to change.  That is why Trump, Sanders, the right-wing parties in Europe and BRexit succeeded.  The supporters know they are disruptive.  That is what they want!

@EmanuelDerman
To all who argued the financial world would’ve collapsed without the bailouts: The political world is collapsing now because of the bailouts

@EmanuelDerman
@Noahpinion @financequant You would have to try understand how other people think and feel. But, in short, …

@EmanuelDerman
@Noahpinion @financequant … Sometimes people will hurt themselves in order to screw up the people that screwed them …



But things have moved into hyperspace in the last 60 days with Trump getting the nomination and BRexit winning.  The push back is serious and will get violent if necessary. That is why I think a revote of BRexit is the single worst thing that can happen, it says the powerful don't care what the masses want.  Ditto finding "rules" or "procedures" to Dump Trump.  Doing that is literally the beginning of the end.

So we are dead set to reverse the 30+ years of globalism.  This is devastatingly bad news for businesses and valuations.  This is why I say "I hope I'm wrong."  It is also why I thought Hillary would not be the nominee (because she is the ultimate establishment candidate) , it was way closer than anyone thought possible with non-establishment Sanders getting 45% of the delegates (before 2008 Nader got 3%)

So we are at cross-roads in world economics.  Are we going to end globalization?  If so, that is the single most bearish thing that can happen, even worse than the financial crisis.  Actually ending globalization is finishing what the financial crisis started in 2008.

My fear is that is exactly what will happen.  How do we stop it and preserve globalization?  I see three ways.

1. The public wants change so give it to them.  Massive resignation of global leaders and end global organizations.  Then start over.  This I give a 0.00% chance of happening.

2. On the next recession hammer the sh*t of the large banks and Goldman.  Show it is indeed equally unfair during a downturn, like we saw in 2000.  This would work but it will also destroy the stock market in the process.  I give this a 25% chance.

3. An economic revolution and the ballot box and in the street to kick out the establishment.  Sometimes it is peaceful (BRexit) sometimes violent (Arab Spring).  But it will result in government, organizations and leaders falling.  This is BRexit and I give this a 75% chance of happening.  It is also terrible for the valuation of businesses.

This is why last week's vote was so earth shattering.  Coming after Trump winning the nomination just 60 days earlier, it shows major epic change now cannot be stopped and will end with the basis of the 30 year bull market ... globalization.

------------------------------

Two thoughts for this board.

1. To prove politics is a circle and not a straight line.  I describe myself as a right-leaning libertarian.  The opposite of me, on this board, might be Vogue65.  He is always talking about "Boeing," his short-hand for globalization.  My guess is he would agree with these comments.  So polar opposite political views met at the same point on the circle.

2. My smug I'm never wrong attitude.  I'm a professional speculator.  Think of me like a basketball shooter.  To be successful you have to have no conscience, and always believe in yourself to the point of smugness.  So when I miss, I forget it and demand the ball again to shoot.  I think I'm always hot and think every shot will work, and will say as much.



« Last Edit: June 28, 2016, 06:14:20 PM by Heisenberg »

jesmu84

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Re: Will the stock market crash (June 24 2016 Update)?
« Reply #423 on: June 28, 2016, 08:34:37 PM »
A note I sent to my "group" a few says ago ... edited for this board.


So, just because I'm curious, what would your financial advice be to an early 30s, single and no kids, healthcare professional with 100k student debt and little available cash? I do have a retirement account from a prior employer and some minimal savings (<10k).

MU82

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Re: Will the stock market crash (June 24 2016 Update)?
« Reply #424 on: June 28, 2016, 09:22:41 PM »
A note I sent to my "group" a few says ago ... edited for this board.

The bull market of the last 30 years has been built on globalization.  That is the movement of people and products around the world in search of efficiencies and lower costs.  This has been the basis of ever rising stock prices since the mega bull market began on August 12, 1982.

Until 2008 we only saw isolated instances of unhappiness with globalization.  The NAFTA debate, the violent protests in Seattle in 1999 at the WTO meeting and so on.  Even though globalization hurt the poor and unskilled (because their jobs were shipped to lower costs countries) it's march continued.  The reason (my theory) because everyone thought the governments and organizations promoting globalization were perceived to be fair.  Even the losers, while unhappy they drew the short straw, tolerated it.

For instance we had a recession in 2000.  People lost their jobs and opportunities failed.  It created unhappiness.  But when surveying the situation we saw Enron executives go to jail, Arthur Anderson (Enron's accountant) liquidated as punishment for Enron and all the 1999/2000 dotcom billionaires lost everything.  In other words the 2000 recession, like all them before, were equally unfair to all.  No one got special treatment.

Then 2008 happened (and will remain the most important year of our lifetime).  What was 2008?  When things got really bad, really bad, politicians bailed out the rich and powerful and  screwed everyone else (rich and powerful is now short-handed as Goldman Sachs).

The problem was governments and organizations that promoted globalization never explained why the bailouts were necessary.  Because they did not, or could not, they lost credibility.  This is critical important to understand ... because this explanation was never offered, the conclusion was they are corrupt and took care of their powerful friends and threw everyone else to the wolves.  Now no one believes government officials or "experts" telling us what policy is appropriate.  The conclusion is they are either lying or conflicted and telling us what is best from their personal situation, not everyone as a whole.

The backlash to 2008 thanks to the inability to explain why the bailouts were necessary was immediate.  The tea party (they hate the bailouts and blame the Government) Occupy Wall Street (they hate the bailouts and blame Wall Street).  The Arab Spring (an overthrow of the establishment), the rise of the right-wing nationalist parties in throughout Europe, Donald Trump, Bernie Sanders and now BRexit are all part of a larger whole.

Since government and organizations are corrupt, they cannot be reformed, they must be replaced.  This is why no amount of "reason" can change anyone's mind.  No one cares about Trump's inconsistencies, they don't care who "pooh-bahs" endorse (does anyone care that George Will is no longer a republican?  Is it actually a good thing that Hank Paulson endorsed Hillary, I say no), and no one listens to "facts" anymore as they are now just political spin.   That is why all the arguments about sending 350 million pounds a week to the EU that could be used to pay for national health worked in the BRexit win.  Since no one is credible anymore, no one can refute this obviously incorrect claims.

We have also changed our politics as well.  We no longer vote on a left (democrat) to right (republican) continuum.  It is now and establishment/non-establishment continuum.    We want bomb throwers and people to turn the tables over.  The system is corrupt and we need it to change.  That is why Trump, Sanders, the right-wing parties in Europe and BRexit succeeded.  The supporters know they are disruptive.  That is what they want!

@EmanuelDerman
To all who argued the financial world would’ve collapsed without the bailouts: The political world is collapsing now because of the bailouts

@EmanuelDerman
@Noahpinion @financequant You would have to try understand how other people think and feel. But, in short, …

@EmanuelDerman
@Noahpinion @financequant … Sometimes people will hurt themselves in order to screw up the people that screwed them …



But things have moved into hyperspace in the last 60 days with Trump getting the nomination and BRexit winning.  The push back is serious and will get violent if necessary. That is why I think a revote of BRexit is the single worst thing that can happen, it says the powerful don't care what the masses want.  Ditto finding "rules" or "procedures" to Dump Trump.  Doing that is literally the beginning of the end.

So we are dead set to reverse the 30+ years of globalism.  This is devastatingly bad news for businesses and valuations.  This is why I say "I hope I'm wrong."  It is also why I thought Hillary would not be the nominee (because she is the ultimate establishment candidate) , it was way closer than anyone thought possible with non-establishment Sanders getting 45% of the delegates (before 2008 Nader got 3%)

So we are at cross-roads in world economics.  Are we going to end globalization?  If so, that is the single most bearish thing that can happen, even worse than the financial crisis.  Actually ending globalization is finishing what the financial crisis started in 2008.

My fear is that is exactly what will happen.  How do we stop it and preserve globalization?  I see three ways.

1. The public wants change so give it to them.  Massive resignation of global leaders and end global organizations.  Then start over.  This I give a 0.00% chance of happening.

2. On the next recession hammer the sh*t of the large banks and Goldman.  Show it is indeed equally unfair during a downturn, like we saw in 2000.  This would work but it will also destroy the stock market in the process.  I give this a 25% chance.

3. An economic revolution and the ballot box and in the street to kick out the establishment.  Sometimes it is peaceful (BRexit) sometimes violent (Arab Spring).  But it will result in government, organizations and leaders falling.  This is BRexit and I give this a 75% chance of happening.  It is also terrible for the valuation of businesses.

This is why last week's vote was so earth shattering.  Coming after Trump winning the nomination just 60 days earlier, it shows major epic change now cannot be stopped and will end with the basis of the 30 year bull market ... globalization.

------------------------------

Two thoughts for this board.

1. To prove politics is a circle and not a straight line.  I describe myself as a right-leaning libertarian.  The opposite of me, on this board, might be Vogue65.  He is always talking about "Boeing," his short-hand for globalization.  My guess is he would agree with these comments.  So polar opposite political views met at the same point on the circle.

2. My smug I'm never wrong attitude.  I'm a professional speculator.  Think of me like a basketball shooter.  To be successful you have to have no conscience, and always believe in yourself to the point of smugness.  So when I miss, I forget it and demand the ball again to shoot.  I think I'm always hot and think every shot will work, and will say as much.

OK, Heisy, that last paragraph explains a lot.
« Last Edit: June 28, 2016, 09:29:38 PM by MU82 »
“It’s not how white men fight.” - Tucker Carlson

 

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