Will the stock market crash (June 24 2016 Update)?

[GooooMarquette]

Whoops.

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36634407

Its inquiry is focused on the possibility that some names could be fraudulent - 77,000 signatures have already been removed.
More than 3.2 million signatures are on the petition, but PM David Cameron has said there will be no second vote.

From other sources, there were North Koreans who somehow managed to sign that petition, 39k people from the Vatican (pop of ~800), and Napoleon Bonaparte also managed to sign the petition.

Yeah.

Doesn't change the fact that plenty of Brits signed too.  The numbers may change, but the popular opposition won't.

Oh, and were you aware that the petition to hold the re-vote was started by William Oliver Healy...who voted in favor of the Brexit?

Whoops, indeed.

[brandx]

I think it bears repeating (no pun intended) that the Brexit vote was a NON-BINDING REFERENDUM... much to the parallel of how American Presidential primaries are NON-BINDING REFERENDUMS.

Populist angst only goes so far before the big boys and girls have to put their earmuffs on and get the job done.  The only difference is that the Brits have the bangers and bristols to put their political careers on the line in order to do the right thing... on this side of the pond, Congress is bent as a nine-bob and hasn't the trousers to go with their mouth because they're not going to muck about with reality when they need to be willy-waving for their next bung and queering the pitch from the other side of the aisle.  So it's sod off to the people because they're no more than scallys and scrubbers who think Congress is a bunch of jacked up tossers who doesn't know it's onions and has made a pig's ear of the country.

In before the bang.

Your post was bollocks. But when you mix too much Guinness with too much wanking, I'd expect you to be off your trolley..

[GooooMarquette]

Your post was bollocks. But when you mix too much Guinness with too much wanking, I'd expect you to be off your trolley..

I just assumed his lift didn't go to the top....

[Tugg Speedman]

Heisy:

If it is the will of the people to have a new referendum, why is that any less democratic than last week's vote?

And I'm not talking about a few million Brits. I'll be impressed when tens of million voters demand a new referendum. If that happens, they absolutely should have a do-over. If not, I agree with you that last week's decision should stand.

I'm guessing President Gore, Supreme Court Justice Merrick Garland and U.S. gun-control advocates would agree wholeheartedly with you that the will of the people should decide elections and other major issues.

We are going to hold and election in November.  The sides are very passionate.

One side is going to lose and then demand a recall or special election, Madison writ large.  I'll bet the losing side can get 50 million signatures (which ever side it is).  We saw the mess this created in Madison.  Do we really want to go down this road?

Election matter, no do-overs.  If you don't vote you give your choice to others and have to live with it.

Recalls and/or impeachment are for very specials violations of rules, not a tool to over-turn an election with disagree with.

Their is no evidence of fraud or impropriety so should not start signing petitions to vote again and again and again because the losing side refuses to accept they lost.

[Spotcheck Billy]

Whoops.

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36634407

Its inquiry is focused on the possibility that some names could be fraudulent - 77,000 signatures have already been removed.
More than 3.2 million signatures are on the petition, but PM David Cameron has said there will be no second vote.

From other sources, there were North Koreans who somehow managed to sign that petition, 39k people from the Vatican (pop of ~800), and Napoleon Bonaparte also managed to sign the petition.

Yeah.

But did Boaty McBoatface sign it?

[MU82]

Whoops.

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36634407

Its inquiry is focused on the possibility that some names could be fraudulent - 77,000 signatures have already been removed.
More than 3.2 million signatures are on the petition, but PM David Cameron has said there will be no second vote.

From other sources, there were North Koreans who somehow managed to sign that petition, 39k people from the Vatican (pop of ~800), and Napoleon Bonaparte also managed to sign the petition.

Yeah.

This is hilarious.

As for the real impact of Brexit ... I agree totally with mu03eng. Let's see how the next several months shake out before we all agree to jump out of 100th-story windows together.

[ChitownSpaceForRent]

Well, whatever happens this year makes me feel like I'm living a chapter in a future history book. I'll have a better idea when I leave for England in a month so well see.

[mu03eng]

Well, whatever happens this year makes me feel like I'm living a chapter in a future history book. I'll have a better idea when I leave for England in a month so well see.

You'll see a bunch of noise, but it will be very difficult to see the actual signal. It is an impossibility to determine the impact for at least a year or until parliament actually votes on something of consequence.

[Benny B]

Your post was bollocks. But when you mix too much Guinness with too much wanking, I'd expect you to be off your trolley..

Sure, I drink Guinness.  And I wank it with the rest of them.  But your daft ignorance is as welcome as a debagging ringburner.

[Eldon]

Really enjoy the panic portion of the Superbar crowd making this thread laughable with their doom and gloom and continued expanding on ignorance as a basis for opinion making.

There are far too many unknowns to draw any conclusion from Brexit. A) we don't know if the UK actually ends up withdrawing B) if they do withdraw we have no idea what the new engagement/agreements look like so we can't determine if it's a better or worse deal for both/either parties C) we don't know what the world economy looks like 2 years from now if/when it takes effect.

Any initial reaction is 100% about uncertainty, fear, and unwinding of positions held assuming the UK voted to stay.

Let's discuss 6 months from now.

Of course as of now there is nothing definitive that we can say about the situation.  However, I do think that there is fruitful discussion out there about Brexit and its potential ramifications, even if the latter are generalities.

When I first heard of the Brexit months ago I immediately thought of Dani Rodrik and his trilemma.  (Rodrik is arguably the world's most eminent scholar on the nexus of globalization and political economy).  While I don't read his blog regularly, he has indeed been blogging about it recently

http://rodrik.typepad.com/dani_rodriks_weblog/2016/06/brexit-and-the-globalization-trilemma.html

The FT was also reminded of Rodrik's trilemma and subsequently wrote about it, and Rodrik critiqued the FT's writeup:

http://rodrik.typepad.com/dani_rodriks_weblog/2016/03/more-on-the-political-trilemma-of-the-global-economy.html


IMO, Brexit will indeed lead to lower economic output for the Brits (how much is too difficult to quantify).  There is simply no way that the UK can get the same type of economic integration with the rest of Europe without being a member of the EU.  Even if the UK signs new bilateral trade agreements with Belgium, Portugal, France, etc., these deals will most certainly not be as beneficial to British exporters as being a full-fledged member of the EU. 

Leaving the EU entails economic costs.  Why pay this cost?  What does the UK get out of it?  The tl;dr version of the Rodrik trilemma (mentioned in the blog posts cited above) is that the benefit of leaving the EU is greater sovereignty, i.e., movement from leg to base of the triangle (shown below).  Is this benefit worth the cost?  Apparently Scots don't think so and non-London Englishmen do.

   

How do we manage the tension between national democracy and global markets?  We have three options.  We can restrict democracy in the interest of minimizing international transaction costs, disregarding the economic and social whiplash that the global economy occasionally produces.  We can limit globalization, in the hope of building democratic legitimacy at home.  Or we can globalize democracy, at the cost of national sovereignty.  This gives us a menu of options for reconstructing the world economy.

[Tugg Speedman]

Really enjoy the panic portion of the Superbar crowd making this thread laughable with their doom and gloom and continued expanding on ignorance as a basis for opinion making.

There are far too many unknowns to draw any conclusion from Brexit. A) we don't know if the UK actually ends up withdrawing B) if they do withdraw we have no idea what the new engagement/agreements look like so we can't determine if it's a better or worse deal for both/either parties C) we don't know what the world economy looks like 2 years from now if/when it takes effect.

Any initial reaction is 100% about uncertainty, fear, and unwinding of positions held assuming the UK voted to stay.

Let's discuss 6 months from now.

What panic are you seeing in this thread.  I'm the only guy expressing concern.  The rest here are like you, enjoying the anal tearing of the portfolio convinced that their is nothing that can ever stop them from making money.

[mu03eng]

What panic are you seeing in this thread.  I'm the only guy expressing concern.  The rest here are like you, enjoying the anal tearing of the portfolio convinced that their is nothing that can ever stop them from making money.

There are several folks in here other than you that are going off the deep end, you just happen to be the most usual of suspects.

There are all sorts of reasons Brexit might be a disaster for the world economy just like there are all sorts of reasons it might be brilliant....it all depends on the decisions of leaders and commoners alike over the next several years. Forgiven me if I don't get my knickers in a twist over things that are literally not knowable at this very moment. Minimize the downside risk and move on.

[mu03eng]

Of course as of now there is nothing definitive that we can say about the situation.  However, I do think that there is fruitful discussion out there about Brexit and its potential ramifications, even if the latter are generalities.

When I first heard of the Brexit months ago I immediately thought of Dani Rodrik and his trilemma.  (Rodrik is arguably the world's most eminent scholar on the nexus of globalization and political economy).  While I don't read his blog regularly, he has indeed been blogging about it recently

http://rodrik.typepad.com/dani_rodriks_weblog/2016/06/brexit-and-the-globalization-trilemma.html

The FT was also reminded of Rodrik's trilemma and subsequently wrote about it, and Rodrik critiqued the FT's writeup:

http://rodrik.typepad.com/dani_rodriks_weblog/2016/03/more-on-the-political-trilemma-of-the-global-economy.html


IMO, Brexit will indeed lead to lower economic output for the Brits (how much is too difficult to quantify).  There is simply no way that the UK can get the same type of economic integration with the rest of Europe without being a member of the EU.  Even if the UK signs new bilateral trade agreements with Belgium, Portugal, France, etc., these deals will most certainly not be as beneficial to British exporters as being a full-fledged member of the EU. 

Leaving the EU entails economic costs.  Why pay this cost?  What does the UK get out of it?  The tl;dr version of the Rodrik trilemma (mentioned in the blog posts cited above) is that the benefit of leaving the EU is greater sovereignty, i.e., movement from leg to base of the triangle (shown below).  Is this benefit worth the cost?  Apparently Scots don't think so and non-London Englishmen do.

   

How do we manage the tension between national democracy and global markets?  We have three options.  We can restrict democracy in the interest of minimizing international transaction costs, disregarding the economic and social whiplash that the global economy occasionally produces.  We can limit globalization, in the hope of building democratic legitimacy at home.  Or we can globalize democracy, at the cost of national sovereignty.  This gives us a menu of options for reconstructing the world economy.

I agree there is absolutely a fruitful discussion to be had, there are all sorts of directions this could go, positive or negative. My post was in reaction to those who know the results and know it's going to be bad.


I have limited exposure to Rodrick, but it is a very interesting discussion point. One thing that has struck me is how nearly identical his model is to that of project management restraints (scope, cost, and time). You can control for two of the three, but never all three. There's got to be a universal nature to that relationship somewhere.

[ChitownSpaceForRent]

Just to add insult to injury, England just got knocked out of Euros by Iceland.

[naginiF]

Just to add insult to injury, England just got knocked out of Euros by Iceland.

probably because the average age of an Icelandic player is so much younger than that of the English team

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

You'll see a bunch of noise, but it will be very difficult to see the actual signal. It is an impossibility to determine the impact for at least a year or until parliament actually votes on something of consequence.

I've heard we shouldn't judge for at least 5 -- and that's for a basketball coach so for a Brexit -- it's probably 10. 

[Dr. Blackheart]

So, our election this November, like the BRexit referendum, is non-binding.  They are all non-binding, everywhere.  And the second they are treated as non-binding, that country ceases to be a democracy.

So, you are saying then that we are still the "Warriors"...

The  Warexit was a palace coup. Out with the pitchforks!  Our democracy is dead.

[rocket surgeon]

So, you are saying then that we are still the "Warriors"...

The  Warexit was a palace coup. Out with the pitchforks!  Our democracy is dead.

very well stated!!

[Tugg Speedman]

[Benny B]

Beer is spelled wrong.

[MU82]

So here we are, right back to where we started.

Brexit's two-day panic basically only erased the four-day run-up that was fueled by speculation that the "remains" would prevail over the "leaves."

Mr. Market is easily positive today, and it's almost as if Brexit had never taken place.

Or as Bill Maher said Friday: "A week ago, Trump thought Brexit was the name of one of Sarah Palin's kids."

Look, I'm not saying the effects of Brexit are "over." The only thing I know for sure is that those who claim to know how this is all going to shake out months or years from now are full of Yorkshire pudding!

[Tugg Speedman]

So here we are, right back to where we started.

Brexit's two-day panic basically only erased the four-day run-up that was fueled by speculation that the "remains" would prevail over the "leaves."

Mr. Market is easily positive today, and it's almost as if Brexit had never taken place.

Or as Bill Maher said Friday: "A week ago, Trump thought Brexit was the name of one of Sarah Palin's kids."

Look, I'm not saying the effects of Brexit are "over." The only thing I know for sure is that those who claim to know how this is all going to shake out months or years from now are full of Yorkshire pudding!

Wait, did we rally back the 600 points we lost on Friday?  And the destruction of the European financial stocks, the worst two days ever recorded, has that been reversed?

The only thing more full of Yorkshire pudding is those that scream "it does not matter" before they even understand what "it" actually is.

[Tugg Speedman]

Turns out the 3 million online "signatures" for a second referendum is a hacked POS.  But this does not mattered, like the "What is the EU" google searches (which is the case after every event with google) the media bias is so one0ded against BRexit that all objectivity has been lost.


Second referendum petition: Inquiry removes at least 77,000 fake signatures, as hackers claim responsibility for 'prank'

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/26/concern-as-online-call-for-second-brexit-vote-gains-more-than-39/



In isolationist North Korea, one of the least internet-connected countries in the world, 23,778 people had apparently gone online to express their frustration at the UK’s decision to quit the EU.

Located 800 miles south east of the Falklands, and with a permanent population of zero, the South Atlantic British Overseas Territory of South Georgia and the Sandwich Islands was responsible for more than 3,000 signatures

That was some 300 more than those coming from the British Antarctic Territory, which though home to some 400 researchers also has no settled population of its own.

Signatories are also recorded in places as far flung as the Caribbean island of Aruba (101), Bermuda (564), China (432), Hong Kong (2,089), Japan (742) Venezuela (24) and the South Pacific Islands of Tuvalu (18), Wallis and Fortuna (8) and Vanuatu (31).

They included 18,734 signatures from France, 11,816 from Spain, 7,031 from Germany, 3,139 from the Netherlands and 2,492 Italians and 4,122 residents of Gibraltar – which came out strongly in favour of Remain in Wednesday's momentous poll.

Some 2,326 Swiss-based supporters backed a second referendum on EU membership, as did 279 residents of Turkey, 3,746 in New Zealand and 11,971 in Australia.

Support was less pronounced in Western Sahara (3) Mongolia (3), Somalia (4), Guatemala (4) and French Polynesia (6)

Overall, close to 2.5 million signatures had been added from within the UK by midday on Sunday, making up an overwhelming proportion of the whole.

[MU82]

Wait, did we rally back the 600 points we lost on Friday?  And the destruction of the European financial stocks, the worst two days ever recorded, has that been reversed?

The only thing more full of Yorkshire pudding is those that scream "it does not matter" before they even understand what "it" actually is.

I'm sorry. I should have said that nobody knows the future ... except Heisy!

(Even if you apparently can't read. I didn't say the market rallied 600 points; I said the Friday-Monday pullback merely had erased last week's four-day run-up ignited by those who had erroneously assumed "remain" would win. And I never screamed "it does not matter." In fact, I literally said the Brexit effect isn't over. What's funny is the one guy who came right out and said he didn't understand what "it actually is" was your boy Trump! But now he's all for it ... and he's taking credit for it! Too effen funny!!!!!!)

[Tugg Speedman]

You're like the old window washer joke ...

What did the window washer that fell from the 50th floor say as he passed by the 5th floor?

So far so good.