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Poll

Would you have considered Henry Ellenson a 1 and done had he chose Kentucky over Marquette?

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Author Topic: Would Henry be seen as 1 and done had he chose Kentucky?  (Read 12408 times)

wadesworld

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Re: Would Henry be seen as 1 and done had he chose Kentucky?
« Reply #25 on: May 21, 2015, 10:57:55 PM »
Were the Harrison twins projected as 1-and-dones?

Were they good as freshmen? Did they deliver as freshmen on the biggest stage?

Did they leave after 1 year?

Stuff happens. The absolute certainty some people here show on some subjects cracks me up.

Again, the Harrisons are guards who don't shoot the ball overly well. If you want to compare Henry to a Kentucky guy it is Trey Lyles. They are as close to the same size and skill set as you can possibly find in 2 players. Did Lyles absolutely tear apart the competition every time he stepped onto the court? Nope. He averaged 8 and 5 on the season. Look at those numbers alone and should that kid be leaving early? Heck no! But it's more than just numbers. It's being 6'10" and able to shoot and handle the ball like a guard. And I'd argue Henry does both of those better than Trey. And what's Trey's draft stock looking like? Lottery. The NBA drafts young kids based on potential, not college production.

I'd argue the longer Henry is in college the worse his draft stock will be. Not because he will get worse at basketball, but because he will progress less in college than he could even at the end of an NBA bench and as time passes you have to start producing rather than just falling back on potential.

People who make a living evaluating these players and where their stock is are just as certain with their expectations for Henry as I am. I guess that gives you a good laugh too.
« Last Edit: May 21, 2015, 11:00:16 PM by wadesworld »
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brandx

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Re: Would Henry be seen as 1 and done had he chose Kentucky?
« Reply #26 on: May 21, 2015, 11:04:34 PM »
Again, the Harrisons are guards who don't shoot the ball overly well. If you want to compare Henry to a Kentucky guy it is Trey Lyles. They are as close to the same size and skill set as you can possibly find in 2 players. Did Lyles absolutely tear apart the competition every time he stepped onto the court? Nope. He averaged 8 and 5 on the season. Look at those numbers alone and should that kid be leaving early? Heck no! But it's more than just numbers. It's being 6'10" and able to shoot an handle the ball like a guard. And I'd argue Henry does both of those better than Trey. And what's Trey's draft stock looking like? Lottery. The NBA drafts young kids based on potential, not college production.

I'd argue the longer Henry is in college the worse his draft stock will be. Not because he will get worse at basketball, but because he will progress less in college than he could even at the end of an NBA bench and as time passes you have to start producing rather than just falling back on potential.

I don't want to argue your point that the NBA draft is predicated on potential, Wade. I completely agree with you.

But I have to disagree a bit when you talk about a guy like Lyles averaging 8/5. If HE averages 8/5, it will be a very disappointing season. Lyles was playing on a team of numerous future NBA lottery picks so he never had the chance to exploit his individual skills to put up large numbers.

Henry will be playing with a pretty inexperienced group + freshman and I would contend, at most, there may only be one or two future NBA'ers playing alongside of Henry. And certainly no lottery picks.

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Re: Would Henry be seen as 1 and done had he chose Kentucky?
« Reply #27 on: May 22, 2015, 01:49:00 AM »
Since Bo cooled on him... And he doesn't do rent-a-player... Clearly Ellenson is one-and-done
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Silkk the Shaka

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Re: Would Henry be seen as 1 and done had he chose Kentucky?
« Reply #28 on: May 22, 2015, 09:23:35 AM »
He doesn't have to be a dominant force next year to enter the draft.  If he's 9 and 5 he's a top 15 pick next year.

It'll come down to whether he wants 1 last season playing with his brother.  We will see.

See: Kelly Oubre. #8 RSCI. Averaged 9 & 5 at KU, one & done, lottery for sure.

Could Ellenson be back for year 2? Of course. It's more likely that he's not though.

MU82

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Re: Would Henry be seen as 1 and done had he chose Kentucky?
« Reply #29 on: May 22, 2015, 09:25:14 AM »
Again, the Harrisons are guards who don't shoot the ball overly well. If you want to compare Henry to a Kentucky guy it is Trey Lyles. They are as close to the same size and skill set as you can possibly find in 2 players. Did Lyles absolutely tear apart the competition every time he stepped onto the court? Nope. He averaged 8 and 5 on the season. Look at those numbers alone and should that kid be leaving early? Heck no! But it's more than just numbers. It's being 6'10" and able to shoot and handle the ball like a guard. And I'd argue Henry does both of those better than Trey. And what's Trey's draft stock looking like? Lottery. The NBA drafts young kids based on potential, not college production.

I'd argue the longer Henry is in college the worse his draft stock will be. Not because he will get worse at basketball, but because he will progress less in college than he could even at the end of an NBA bench and as time passes you have to start producing rather than just falling back on potential.

People who make a living evaluating these players and where their stock is are just as certain with their expectations for Henry as I am. I guess that gives you a good laugh too.

I agree with pretty much all of this, including your assessment of the Harrisons' ability.

But my point still stands. Although the Harrisons proved to not be good enough to be 1-and-dones, the fact remains that, when they stepped on the court for Wildcat Madness (or whatever they call it) as freshman, the assumption was that they would be 1-and-dones.

And yet they stayed for a second season.

That's all I was saying. I was using a fact. Zero speculation at all.

I can prove my point because it is a fact. It's impossible to "prove" that Henry will be a 1-and-done until he is a 1-and-done.

And sure, I fully allow that I'm hoping Henry stays a second year, because that could be a special second year for Marquette basketball. Henry might see that, too, and might stay partly because of that. Fairy often, college basketball and football players who would be drafted high defy the experts and stay in school -- because they like their college experience. That's especially true for athletes whose families are not destitute and don't need the money immediately.

Will that apply to Henry? Nobody knows. Not me, not you, not NBA scouts and, at this point, not even Henry.
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brandx

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Re: Would Henry be seen as 1 and done had he chose Kentucky?
« Reply #30 on: May 22, 2015, 12:16:56 PM »
See: Kelly Oubre. #8 RSCI. Averaged 9 & 5 at KU, one & done, lottery for sure.

Could Ellenson be back for year 2? Of course. It's more likely that he's not though.

Again, though, Ellenson will have much more opportunity to put up numbers. Won't have near the cast around him that Lyles and Oubre had.

wadesworld

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Re: Would Henry be seen as 1 and done had he chose Kentucky?
« Reply #31 on: May 22, 2015, 12:34:29 PM »
Again, though, Ellenson will have much more opportunity to put up numbers. Won't have near the cast around him that Lyles and Oubre had.

And again, it's not about "What did you do for me in college and who else was on your team in college," it's, "What can you do for me in 3 years and who will be on my team in 3 years" when it comes to the NBA draft.

Giannis played in Greece's B league and scored 8 points per game.  He had plenty of opportunity to shine with that level of competition but he didn't.  He was picked in the top 20 of the draft.

It is not going to come down to "Is Henry good enough to leave early."  It is going to come down to "Does Henry want to stay in school for an extra 1-3 years?"

Zach LaVine was 9 2 and 2 on a good but far from great UCLA team where he had the time to shine but never did.  He was drafted 13th overall.  Mitch McGary didn't play after the first 8 games of the season last year yet he was drafted 20th overall.

Nerlens Noel tore his ACL and was taken 6th overall.  Steven Adams was a 7 and 6 guy an 8th seeded Pitt team and was taken 12th overall.  Giannis at 15.
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brandx

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Re: Would Henry be seen as 1 and done had he chose Kentucky?
« Reply #32 on: May 22, 2015, 01:08:07 PM »
And again, it's not about "What did you do for me in college and who else was on your team in college," it's, "What can you do for me in 3 years and who will be on my team in 3 years" when it comes to the NBA draft.

Giannis played in Greece's B league and scored 8 points per game.  He had plenty of opportunity to shine with that level of competition but he didn't.  He was picked in the top 20 of the draft.

It is not going to come down to "Is Henry good enough to leave early."  It is going to come down to "Does Henry want to stay in school for an extra 1-3 years?"

Zach LaVine was 9 2 and 2 on a good but far from great UCLA team where he had the time to shine but never did.  He was drafted 13th overall.  Mitch McGary didn't play after the first 8 games of the season last year yet he was drafted 20th overall.

Nerlens Noel tore his ACL and was taken 6th overall.  Steven Adams was a 7 and 6 guy an 8th seeded Pitt team and was taken 12th overall.  Giannis at 15.

I'm not really disagreeing with you, Wade.

I'm just saying that if HE puts up Trey Lyles numbers on next years MU team, then he won't have shown enough potential to leave after one year.

brewcity77

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Re: Would Henry be seen as 1 and done had he chose Kentucky?
« Reply #33 on: May 22, 2015, 02:00:03 PM »
The simple reality is until we see Henry here on a regular basis, no one really knows. His numbers mean little. If he puts up 8/5 but shows flashes of dominance, he could be a lottery pick, whereas if he puts up 18/10 but is a step slower than expected and is strictly a below the rim player, he may be a second round or even undrafted guy after his freshman year.

Stats alone won't determine his draft status. If he puts up pedestrian numbers but worth flashes of greatness like Lyles he could be a lottery pick. If he's dominant but in a non athletic, workmanlike fashion like Luke Harangody, the NBA luster will wear off quick. Being a top 10 high school prospect or putting up numbers is all nice, but it'll all come down to how they think he'll develop. And until he's on the court, it's all academic.
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Galway Eagle

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Re: Would Henry be seen as 1 and done had he chose Kentucky?
« Reply #34 on: May 22, 2015, 02:04:12 PM »
The simple reality is until we see Henry here on a regular basis, no one really knows. His numbers mean little. If he puts up 8/5 but shows flashes of dominance, he could be a lottery pick, whereas if he puts up 18/10 but is a step slower than expected and is strictly a below the rim player, he may be a second round or even undrafted guy after his freshman year.

Stats alone won't determine his draft status. If he puts up pedestrian numbers but worth flashes of greatness like Lyles he could be a lottery pick. If he's dominant but in a non athletic, workmanlike fashion like Luke Harangody, the NBA luster will wear off quick. Being a top 10 high school prospect or putting up numbers is all nice, but it'll all come down to how they think he'll develop. And until he's on the court, it's all academic.

If he has a remotely similar jumping ability to Wally I don't see him being below the rim
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MU82

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Re: Would Henry be seen as 1 and done had he chose Kentucky?
« Reply #35 on: May 22, 2015, 03:57:16 PM »
See, I don't disagree with wades that the numbers are immaterial if the NBA thinks highly enough about his potential. NBA teams have drafted all kinds of college players with mediocre stats because they are all about potential.

Where wades and I diverge is his insistence that Henry will leave if the NBA comes a'callin'. I doubt wades or anybody else knows how Henry feels about that today, and I am 100% positive that nobody -- including Henry -- knows how Henry will feel about that 8-10 months from now because, well, that time isn't here yet.

Henry might love Marquette so much, and be so excited about what the team can accomplish his sophomore year, and enjoy college life so much, and love playing with his brother so much, and have so much confidence in himself remaining a top prospect, that he might say, "The NBA can wait; I want to do something special at Marquette." That wouldn't be an unprecedented move -- many basketball and football players have made that exact decision over the years.

Obviously, I don't know that he will decide to come back for those reasons and others ... but the nice thing is I don't pretend to know it, either.

I just wish the "I'm sure Henry is 1-and-done" folks didn't express themselves with such certainty. Because they don't know.
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Re: Would Henry be seen as 1 and done had he chose Kentucky?
« Reply #36 on: May 22, 2015, 04:13:59 PM »
If he has a remotely similar jumping ability to Wally I don't see him being below the rim

I have no idea how his career goes. All I know is I'd rather actually watch it than get worked up over what may or may not happen in the next 1-4 years.
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Galway Eagle

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Re: Would Henry be seen as 1 and done had he chose Kentucky?
« Reply #37 on: May 22, 2015, 04:44:02 PM »
I have no idea how his career goes. All I know is I'd rather actually watch it than get worked up over what may or may not happen in the next 1-4 years.

Oh I completely agree. Just hard to imagine someone with those genes being below the rim
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Class71

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Re: Would Henry be seen as 1 and done had he chose Kentucky?
« Reply #38 on: May 23, 2015, 09:13:40 PM »
Why does anyone care? :-\
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wadesworld

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Re: Would Henry be seen as 1 and done had he chose Kentucky?
« Reply #39 on: May 23, 2015, 10:25:04 PM »
Why does anyone care? :-\

Because he's the most hyped recruit to commit to Marquette in this generation? I don't know. Yeah, nevermind, let's not discuss Henry...uhh...who? Can't even remember the kid's last name.
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Lennys Tap

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Re: Would Henry be seen as 1 and done had he chose Kentucky?
« Reply #40 on: May 23, 2015, 11:27:22 PM »
Because he's the most hyped recruit to commit to Marquette in this generation? I don't know. Yeah, nevermind, let's not discuss Henry...uhh...who? Can't even remember the kid's last name.

Yeah, let's not talk about Henry. Let's talk Derrick.

4everwarriors

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Re: Would Henry be seen as 1 and done had he chose Kentucky?
« Reply #41 on: May 23, 2015, 11:32:41 PM »
Who?
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KenoshaWarrior

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Re: Would Henry be seen as 1 and done had he chose Kentucky?
« Reply #42 on: May 24, 2015, 11:09:57 AM »
One and Done's are a crapshoot. You just never know. Take for example:

The Proclaimers - I'm going to be (500 miles)

These guys had it all. We are talking, scottish accents, enviably amazing dorky looks, and they were twins to boot. I expected them next to Bono and U2. One and Done. Who would've thunk it?

Paul Hogan - Crocodile Dundee

This guy was destined to catapult himself into, and subsequently remain orbiting, Hollywood's greatest inner circles. He had the looks, an accent to die for, and an uncanny ability to deliver cheesy lines with exquisite precision. I expected 20 more variations of the Dundee with Mr. Hogan leading the way. Instead. One and Done. Who would've thunk it?

Jeremy Lin of NY Knicks Fame.

Need I say more than Linsanity? One and Done.

That chick from the Yellow Pages Tattoo Removal Commercial.

Whoa, nellie. Can you say the next Cindy Crawford Pepsi commercial? But, noooooooo. One and Done.

In sum, all this discussion about whether Ellenson will go pro after next year, or play four, just reminds me how freaking amazing Crocodile Dundee was and how many times I watched one commercial over and over on a loop.



I remember that yellow page add chick. SMOKE SHOW!!!!!!   Anyone know what happened to her?   Is she back with Mike?