Google Self-driving car

[Tugg Speedman]

Feels like you have changed your tune with this post.

You realize that Tesla isn't even profitable with their cars...yes?  Not until AT LEAST 2020

http://www.wsj.com/articles/tesla-china-sales-declined-significantly-ceo-says-1421186754

GM makes 2.2 million cars, market value $53 billion
Telsa makes 45,000 cars, market value $33 billion



And Uber, which is private, has a valuation of $40 to $50 billion now on just the hope they will make Bill Gates prediction true, they will have a driverless car soon.

Markets look forward and this is sending a loud message that the old way of doing things is done.  Every car traditional car maker knows it and they are scared out of their mind.  All the CEOs of these companies talk about is electric and driverless.  Mercedes is so afraid of driverless that they are running a multimillion dollar ad campaign suggesting that Mercedes already has driverless cars on the road now (they don't).  

<a href="http://www.youtube.com/v/4pNH-BaCUHE" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="bbc_link bbc_flash_disabled new_win">http://www.youtube.com/v/4pNH-BaCUHE</a>

These commercials are targeted to investors to not abandon them. It is a sign of panic about the future and they are unprepared for it. (Tesla and Uber don't run commercials telling you how great they are)

It's all about looking forward.  And when everyone realizes that driverless cars will be reality, driver cars implode.    That is the point that matters, not when we go to 100% adopt, that will never happen.  

So yes in 10 years things will be dramatically different.

[ChicosBailBonds]

GM makes 2.2 million cars, market value $53 billion
Telsa makes 45,000 cars, market value $33 billion

That's nice.  I was talking about profitability.  Market values are great, they are also based on irrational exuberance as well.

What'sApp was valued at $19billion.  AirBnb at $10billion.   Stocks like Netflix, Tesla, Solar City, etc, are trading on dreams, on promises, not on reality.  Now, maybe they get there and some of them will, but they are based on potential.  Stocks can be valued many different ways, and they are not uniformly valued from one company to the next.

A reminder, market valuations were absurd in 1929 and in the mid 2000's.   

[Tugg Speedman]

That's nice.  I was talking about profitability.  Market values are great, they are also based on irrational exuberance as well.

What'sApp was valued at $19billion.  AirBnb at $10billion.   Stocks like Netflix, Tesla, Solar City, etc, are trading on dreams, on promises, not on reality.  Now, maybe they get there and some of them will, but they are based on potential.  Stocks can be valued many different ways, and they are not uniformly valued from one company to the next.

A reminder, market valuations were absurd in 1929 and in the mid 2000's.  

They are growth stocks that are investing heavily and have huge revenue growth rates (over 300%/year for Uber).  Profitability is one metric that works well for established companies, not necessarily for these companies at this stage in their maturity.  

The larger point is investors believe in these companies, and not so much in established companies.

[tower912]

http://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/2015/07/21/hack-connected-car-raises-alarm-over-driver-safety/30462317/

Better secure that network. 

[MUWarrior2007]

But...but...but...  This technology will be used by EVERYONE in their self driving cars in 5-years and anyone who thinks differently is a dolt...  Right, Heisenberg...? 

http://www.wired.com/2015/07/hackers-remotely-kill-jeep-highway/

NOT GONNA HAPPEN ANY TIME SOON

[Tugg Speedman]

But...but...but...  This technology will be used by EVERYONE in their self driving cars in 5-years and anyone who thinks differently is a dolt...  Right, Heisenberg...? 

http://www.wired.com/2015/07/hackers-remotely-kill-jeep-highway/

NOT GONNA HAPPEN ANY TIME SOON

Please note that they hacked an existing car, not some futurist self-driving car. 

This has nothing to do with self-driving cars.  In fact self-driving cars can be programmed to prevent the car from doing something suicidal.  You cannot. 

Also note that hackers need to have physical access to the car and its computer system to hack it.  They cannot randomly pick a car driving down the street and hack into it.

[GooooMarquette]

Also note that hackers need to have physical access to the car and its computer system to hack it.  They cannot randomly pick a car driving down the street and hack into it yet.

fify

[Benny B]

Anyone with access to your vehicle's OBDII port can reflash your car's ECU in a manner that would essentially blow-up your engine once it hits fourth gear.  And this is with readily-available equipment and just a couple hours of browsing the interwebs.

[Chicos' Buzz Scandal Countdown]

I actually agree with Chicos on this one.   I will be one of the last holdouts for driving myself.   I will go absolutely insane if I am sitting in a car going the exact same speed as all of the other cars.  The idea of a journey being the same as an amusement park ride where all of the cars stay the exact same distance apart is nauseating.    I enjoy the occasional random detour down the road less traveled.   The one with curves and hills.   Or scenic vistas.    Getting in a car, punching in a destination,  and then just sitting back and napping or surfing the net has absolutely no appeal.      I accept that it may happen in my lifetime, but I cannot imagine celebrating it.

I think the idea is that, once cars are autonomous, they will also be designed less like a cockpit and more like a living room.  You wouldn't need windows; you could sleep, read, nap.... sign me up for that any day of the week.

[Benny B]

I think the idea is that, once cars are autonomous, they will also be designed less like a cockpit and more like a living room.  You wouldn't need windows; you could sleep, read, nap.... sign me up for that any day of the week.

People who take the train to work can do that five days a week.  Not only can you pay for public commuting costs pre-tax (at least here in Illinois you can), you can bill that time to a client if you're in such a line of work.

Just watch... lawyers are going to be the first ones aboard the driverless car bandwagon in droves.  Even the doomsayers have to see the advantage in that.

[ChicosBailBonds]

I think the idea is that, once cars are autonomous, they will also be designed less like a cockpit and more like a living room.  You wouldn't need windows; you could sleep, read, nap.... sign me up for that any day of the week.

What's with you youngsters always wanting to nap and sleep.  Maybe it's me, but I find when I'm on a train I get bored, same as on a plane.  Become tired, and lethargic.  Able to do some work, but only to a point.  When I'm off the train or plane, I'm not exactly refreshed.  I enjoy driving, it keeps my mind focused, alert.


I want my hands on the wheel, foot on the gas, wind in my hair, going where I want to go at my pace. Live life a bit.  I get the advantages, and when this is all ready 20+ years from now and I'm long since retired, that will be fine. 

[GooooMarquette]

What's with you youngsters always wanting to nap and sleep.  Maybe it's me, but I find when I'm on a train I get bored, same as on a plane.  Become tired, and lethargic.  Able to do some work, but only to a point.  When I'm off the train or plane, I'm not exactly refreshed.  I enjoy driving, it keeps my mind focused, alert.

I want my hands on the wheel, foot on the gas, wind in my hair, going where I want to go at my pace. Live life a bit.  I get the advantages, and when this is all ready 20+ years from now and I'm long since retired, that will be fine.

Agreed.  I just got a new VW GTI with a 6-speed manual transmission.  I don't want to nap when I'm in it.

[Tugg Speedman]

What's with you youngsters always wanting to nap and sleep.  Maybe it's me, but I find when I'm on a train I get bored, same as on a plane.  Become tired, and lethargic.  Able to do some work, but only to a point.  When I'm off the train or plane, I'm not exactly refreshed.  I enjoy driving, it keeps my mind focused, alert.


I want my hands on the wheel, foot on the gas, wind in my hair, going where I want to go at my pace. Live life a bit.  I get the advantages, and when this is all ready 20+ years from now and I'm long since retired, that will be fine.

You get lethargic on a plane because it pressurized to 8000 feet.

So wind do you have in hair when sitting at a standstill on the 405?

[Tugg Speedman]

Agreed.  I just got a new VW GTI with a 6-speed manual transmission.  I don't want to nap when I'm in it.

You do realize that many think this is the description of an efficient killing machine.  And the ranks that think this will grow.

In a few years saying this will be as socially acceptable as saying you want to smoke in public.

[ChicosBailBonds]

You get lethargic on a plane because it pressurized to 8000 feet.

So wind do you have in hair when sitting at a standstill on the 405?

I get lethargic on a train at ground level.  I want my mind stimulated.

I avoid the 405 like the plague, rarely if ever on it.  Point is, on the weekends, at night, early in the morning, I do want that wind in my hair.

[ChicosBailBonds]

You do realize that many think this is the description of an efficient killing machine.  And the ranks that think this will grow.

In a few years saying this will be as socially acceptable as saying you want to smoke in public.

Those people have a problem then.....those are the same people that think guns kill people or exhaling CO2 is pollution.

[Tugg Speedman]

I get lethargic on a train at ground level.  I want my mind stimulated.

I avoid the 405 like the plague, rarely if ever on it.  Point is, on the weekends, at night, early in the morning, I do want that wind in my hair.

You will always be able to recreationally drive, until the end of time.  Just like you can recreationally ride a horse until the end of time.

But having human killing machines in charge of basic transportation is what is going to change.

[Tugg Speedman]

Those people have a problem then.....those are the same people that think guns kill people or exhaling CO2 is pollution.

They are correct ... human error is the overwhelming reason auto accidents kill 40,000/yr and hurt 2 million. 

Driverless cars, when fully implemented, will drastically reduce these numbers.

[GooooMarquette]

You do realize that many think this is the description of an efficient killing machine.  And the ranks that think this will grow.

In a few years saying this will be as socially acceptable as saying you want to smoke in public.

And a simple software glitch or smart hacker could turn driverless cars into even more efficient killing machines.

Isn't technology great?

[Benny B]

And a simple software glitch or smart hacker could turn driverless cars into even more efficient killing machines.

Isn't technology great?

Our airplanes and trains essentially run on computers already.  Why go after low-hanging fruit when there's a juicy hacker target 30,000 feet in the air.

[GooooMarquette]

Our airplanes and trains essentially run on computers already.  Why go after low-hanging fruit when there's a juicy hacker target 30,000 feet in the air.

How many people drive in a given day?

How many people fly in a given day?

[Benny B]

How many people drive in a given day?

How many people fly in a given day?

So a hacker takes control of your car, you hit the emergency engine cut-off switch (or something along those lines), and the car comes to a stop.  What happens then?

Hack into an airplane, and it doesn't have the luxury of such a fail-safe.  Yet no one seems to have done it yet (don't post a link to the guy who supposedly went through the plane's entertainment system... that's complete BS).


Do you honestly think that the designers here haven't already thought about this?

[GooooMarquette]

So a hacker takes control of your car, you hit the emergency engine cut-off switch (or something along those lines), and the car comes to a stop.  What happens then?

Hack into an airplane, and it doesn't have the luxury of such a fail-safe.  Yet no one seems to have done it yet (don't post a link to the guy who supposedly went through the plane's entertainment system... that's complete BS).

Do you honestly think that the designers here haven't already thought about this?

When the car stops in the middle of a freeway, it gets rear ended by a semi.

As to your other question, I believe they've thought of it.  No, I don't think they've solved it.

By the way, those computerized commercial aircraft you mentioned?  They each cost millions of dollars, so it's worth putting a few hundred thousand each into state of the art security.  Think a several hundred thousand dollar Ford Focus would sell?  Also note that the computerized aircraft still have trained pilots aboard, and controls for them to take over.

[Spotcheck Billy]

Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV is recalling about 1.4 million cars and trucks equipped with radios that are vulnerable to hacking.

The company said in a statement it has blocked unauthorized remote access to certain vehicles systems with a network-level improvement on Thursday.

Fiat Chrysler was already distributing software to insulate connected vehicles from illegal remote manipulation after Wired magazine published a story about software programmers who were able to take over a Jeep Cherokee being driven on a Missouri highway. Fiat Chrysler reiterated that it’s not aware of any real-world unauthorized remote hack into any of its vehicles.

It stressed that no defect was found and that it’s conducting the campaign out of “an abundance of caution.”

The recall covers almost a million more models than those initially identified as needing a software patch. The action includes 2015 versions of Ram pickups, Jeep Cherokee and Grand Cherokee SUVs, Dodge Challenger sports coupes and Viper supercars.

Affected customers will receive a USB device to upgrade their vehicle’s software with additional safety features, beyond the network-level measure.

[ChicosBailBonds]

You will always be able to recreationally drive, until the end of time.  Just like you can recreationally ride a horse until the end of time.

But having human killing machines in charge of basic transportation is what is going to change.

And the more and more people that don't get the practice behind the wheel because they are being shuttled around, will mean they are even worse driving recreationally.   The transition will be wonderful to see.

I'm all for automation and technology.  It's part of my daily job. I'm all for safety, but I'm also one of those people that doesn't like to give up a ton of control over my life either.  Perhaps it is because I live in a car culture in California, but driving is freedom to me. Part of that freedom is the control of the car with hands and feet.  I'm one of those people that loves driving manual transmission cars and it pains me that 75% of people today have no clue how to do it.  That is driving!