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Author Topic: Google Self-driving car  (Read 34959 times)

jesmu84

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Re: Google Self-driving car
« Reply #25 on: May 19, 2015, 06:44:32 PM »
I actually agree with Chicos on this one.   I will be one of the last holdouts for driving myself.   I will go absolutely insane if I am sitting in a car going the exact same speed as all of the other cars.  The idea of a journey being the same as an amusement park ride where all of the cars stay the exact same distance apart is nauseating.    I enjoy the occasional random detour down the road less traveled.   The one with curves and hills.   Or scenic vistas.    Getting in a car, punching in a destination,  and then just sitting back and napping or surfing the net has absolutely no appeal.      I accept that it may happen in my lifetime, but I cannot imagine celebrating it. 

I'm the total opposite. I mean, don't get me wrong, I actually really enjoy driving. But, for me, it's more the scenery, time to think, time to be alone, etc. I can do all that without needing to pay attention to the road. Plus, I long for the day when I can get in my car at midnight and wake up somewhere in the day.

Tugg Speedman

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Re: Google Self-driving car
« Reply #26 on: May 19, 2015, 07:48:53 PM »
Chicos will win this bet by a decade or more, easy.   

Look at hybrid cars as an example of automotive change.  The first was released in 1999.  While the Prius is a huge success, you know what percentage of the market electric/hybrid vehicles are 15 years later?  A whopping 2.7% .. and its floated up and down from 2.5 to 3.2% over the past 8 years .. indicating it's not anywhere near doubling any time soon.

Or nav systems in cars.  Every car should have this $100 piece of tech, but since car manufacturers bundle it into a $2-3-4k package .. only a fraction of new cars have them, with most folks opting to use their smart phone.

The same will happen to self-driving cars.  The tech will be pretty good in a decade, but mainstream manufacturers will treat it as an expensive optional feature.   Sure, GoogleCar and Tesla will bake auto-drive into their base model cars .. but it'll be way more than 10-15 years before the Big 3 will do that, instead sucking as much profit out of it as possible.

The big 3 are irrelevant.  Two of them bust five years ago (second time for Chrysler) The manufacture of driverless cars will be someone new and "Uber" them into oblivion.

Prius is a bad example.  It failed to achieve cost savings and remains nothing but a status symbol.

The key to driverless cars catching on is cost savings.  Both in transportation costs, lives and Injuries prevented.  If it can pull this off, and I think it will, the adoption will be rapid.

Does matter what Chicos and Tower think about driving, let me blunt, the cost of human driving will go so high you will not be able to afford it.  That is how they will get you off the road.  See the long post above.  I think it gets it right.

They will start with in densely urban areas as taxis.  uber will replace their drivers with driverless.  If the cost (and live) savings are their, game set and match.  We will know in a few years if it works, widespread adoption a few years after that.

tower912

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Re: Google Self-driving car
« Reply #27 on: May 19, 2015, 08:10:41 PM »
let me blunt

What are you, an IU basketball player?
Luke 6:45   ...A good man produces goodness from the good in his heart; an evil man produces evil out of his store of evil.   Each man speaks from his heart's abundance...

It is better to be fearless and cheerful than cheerless and fearful.

Spotcheck Billy

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Re: Google Self-driving car
« Reply #28 on: May 20, 2015, 10:01:34 AM »
So costs will force the change-over?

What about the motorcycle industry? Will they be forced off the road too?

🏀

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Re: Google Self-driving car
« Reply #29 on: May 20, 2015, 10:05:05 AM »
So costs will force the change-over?

What about the motorcycle industry? Will they be forced off the road too?

We can only hope so.

Tugg Speedman

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Re: Google Self-driving car
« Reply #30 on: May 20, 2015, 11:39:03 AM »
We can only hope so.

+1

Motorcycle = organ donor creators

Spotcheck Billy

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Re: Google Self-driving car
« Reply #31 on: May 20, 2015, 12:21:20 PM »
+1

Motorcycle = organ donor creators

so why would you like to see less organ donors? better cut your drinking you might need that liver longer than you think

Benny B

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Re: Google Self-driving car
« Reply #32 on: May 20, 2015, 12:23:32 PM »
so why would you like to see less organ donors? better cut your drinking you might need that liver longer than you think

Methinks a biker's liver is not something I'd want donated, especially if it was working overtime at the time of the accident.
Wow, I'm very concerned for Benny.  Being able to mimic Myron Medcalf's writing so closely implies an oncoming case of dementia.

Spotcheck Billy

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Re: Google Self-driving car
« Reply #33 on: May 20, 2015, 12:45:36 PM »
We can only hope so.

so when H-D joins the ranks of B.O.O.B.s and Milwaukee loses thousands of good paying jobs - that's a good thing?

Spotcheck Billy

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Re: Google Self-driving car
« Reply #34 on: May 20, 2015, 12:46:42 PM »
Methinks a biker's liver is not something I'd want donated, especially if it was working overtime at the time of the accident.

I get the humor but in actuality the majority of biker accidents are the results of cagers unnatural carnal knowledgeing up

and Marquette will need a new sponsor when Huber can no longer throw around those $$$ from suing cagers on behalf of bikers
« Last Edit: May 20, 2015, 12:49:15 PM by Michael Kenyon »

chapman

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Re: Google Self-driving car
« Reply #35 on: May 23, 2015, 03:44:26 PM »
Works for me.  Just make sure I can still ride up front, or they'll have to invent a better magic pill for carsickness. 

Maybe I can order the Amazon Car and it'll drive itself to my driveway.  Or maybe if Amazon never gets their fleet of drones approved they'll do Prime Drive and send out little cars that back into your driveway and dump your package off.

Tugg Speedman

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Re: Google Self-driving car
« Reply #36 on: May 23, 2015, 08:55:40 PM »
Works for me.  Just make sure I can still ride up front, or they'll have to invent a better magic pill for carsickness. 

Maybe I can order the Amazon Car and it'll drive itself to my driveway.  Or maybe if Amazon never gets their fleet of drones approved they'll do Prime Drive and send out little cars that back into your driveway and dump your package off.

No front or back seat in a driverless car.  No steering wheel or brake pedal either.

Now before you start in on all the mistakes these cars will make, I would rather ride, or put my family in, in the 1.0 version of the driverless car they have today over a Pakistani taxi driver who has been working for 12 hours.

classof2k

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Re: Google Self-driving car
« Reply #37 on: May 23, 2015, 09:48:55 PM »
Thoughts on whether this impacts the airline industry?  If I can jump in a car, sleep soundly for 10 hours, and have a vehicle on the other end, it's going to affect my decision on whether I deal with all the airport, rental car, etc.
« Last Edit: May 23, 2015, 11:06:03 PM by classof2k »

MUCrew

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Re: Google Self-driving car
« Reply #38 on: May 23, 2015, 10:08:08 PM »
Speaking of Nav stuff, I wrote a detailed complaint to Garmin from when we were in Lake Tahoe a few months ago.  How horrid their navigation options were from Tahoe to L.A. vs what my iPhone was saying.  We did a little test.

To Garmin's credit, they wrote back admitting a big glitch in their software maps up there.  Their chosen route would have made the difference in the driving by 1 hour and 53 minutes and more than 85 miles added in length.  That is some seriously wrong screw up for a GPS system in 2015. 

This

chapman

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Re: Google Self-driving car
« Reply #39 on: May 23, 2015, 11:06:15 PM »
Thoughts on whether this impacts the airline industry?  If I can jump in a car, sleep soundly for 10 hours, and not have a vehicle on the other end, it's going to affect my decision on whether I deal with all the airport, rental car, etc.

That would be nice.  Far too often my flight gets cancelled or delayed and I do the math to figure out that driving probably would have been nearly a wash in total time.  Just last week, about 12 hours of flying (or three flying, nine sitting on runways or in airports) instead of about a nine hour drive.  But as is I'd still rather pass out in the airport lounge during the delays than be behind the wheel that long and put up with DC traffic.

Tugg Speedman

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Re: Google Self-driving car
« Reply #40 on: May 24, 2015, 06:34:05 AM »
That would be nice.  Far too often my flight gets cancelled or delayed and I do the math to figure out that driving probably would have been nearly a wash in total time.  Just last week, about 12 hours of flying (or three flying, nine sitting on runways or in airports) instead of about a nine hour drive.  But as is I'd still rather pass out in the airport lounge during the delays than be behind the wheel that long and put up with DC traffic.

Driverless cars also means no parking (30% to 40% of all dense urban traffic is parking, looking for parking, double parking, etc.)  This doubles the traffic lanes in cities and will make a gigantic difference in traffic congestion.

Driverless cars will also be connected cars. That means every car knows what every other car is doing.  It eliminates the need for stop lights and stop signs (if they exist it will be for pedestrians to cross the street not for traffic flow).  Cars coming to an intersection all know what the other cars are doing so they adjust their speeds accordingly so they each slip through in an uninterrupted fashion.

So connected cars and no parking means you can leave for Dulles Friday at 4:30 in the rain and make it in 20minutes.  And while in the car for those 20 minutes, you can look out the window, listen to music via spotify/Sat radio on a premium sound system, answer emails on your ipad, talk on the phone.  Or watch a re-run of Friends on a 32 inch HDTV in the car.

Or you can be like Chicos, and announce that driverless cars take your balls away and will demand you drive no matter what.  Of course he says this on the 405 as he is pounding his fist into the steering wheel, stressed that bad traffic will cause him to miss his son's soccer game, thinking about all the things he needs to do at work that he is not doing in traffic, all while exhausted from a long day at work wishing he could have a 15 minute nap.

Your call.

GGGG

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Re: Google Self-driving car
« Reply #41 on: May 24, 2015, 08:27:59 AM »
Why would driverless cars eliminate the need for parking?

Tugg Speedman

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Re: Google Self-driving car
« Reply #42 on: May 24, 2015, 09:09:53 AM »
Why would driverless cars eliminate the need for parking?

The idea behind a driverless car is you would never own one.  

From the long post on page 1

http://qz.com/403628/autonomous-cars-will-destroy-millions-of-jobs-and-reshape-the-economy-by-2025/

Morgan Stanley’s research shows that cars are driven just 4% of the year, which is an astonishing waste considering that the average cost of car ownership is nearly $9,000 per year. Next to a house, an automobile is the second-most expensive asset that most people will ever buy—it is no surprise that ride sharing services like Uber and car sharing services like Zipcar are quickly gaining popularity as an alternative to car ownership.

It is now more economical to use a ride-sharing service if you live in a city and drive less than 10,000 miles per year. And current research confirms that we would be eager to use autonomous cars if they were available. A full 60% of US adults surveyed stated that they would ride in an autonomous car, and nearly 32% said they would not continue to drive once an autonomous car was available instead. But no one is more excited than Uber—CEO Travis Kalanick recently stated that Uber will eventually replace all of its drivers with self-driving cars.

A January 2013 Columbia University study once suggested that with a fleet of just 9,000 autonomous cars, Uber could replace every taxi cab in New York City, and that passengers would wait an average of 36 seconds for a ride that costs about $0.50 per mile. Such convenience and low cost would make car ownership inconceivable, and autonomous, on-demand taxis—the “transportation cloud”—will quickly become the dominant form of transportation.

-------------

So the future is millions of autonomous "taxis"  They come in all shape and sizes.  Basic transportation, luxury for a special night out.  Vans (buses) for large groups, pick-up and vans for other specialized uses.  As the passage above says, press a button on your phone and one shows up at your front door 30 seconds later (because they are a dozen empty ones driving around within a few blocks of your home).

So they do not park, they pick up and drop off.  No parking (100% ban nationwide).  Again, parking (clogging streets with parked cars, looking for parking, doing it illegally) is the single biggest cause of traffic congestion in this country.  It costs society 10 of billions in wasted resources every years.   Additionally, 20% of all gasoline use in this country is cars moving at 0 MPH.  That is, idling while parked or stop because of congestion or at a stop light.  Getting rid of parking and no longer having to burn gas going 0 MPH due to congestion or traffic lights will put thousands of dollars in every current car owners pocket.

How about the plumber that comes with a vans full of tools and parts?  He calls a van and rolls a cart of his tools and parts into the back.  It drops him off, he rolls his cart out the back and the van goes on to another call.  When he is done, one push of a button on the phone and another van (or maybe the same one) returns within 3 minutes.  He rolls his cart in and off he goes.  And instead of driving, he opens his laptop and does his paperwork.  100% updated on paper work all the time before the next call.

Why would a plumber do this?  Because it will save his tens of thousands in costs every year.  No buying, maintaining and insuring an expensive van.  No wasting his life driving.  He sits in the back and watches the afternoon baseball game as the Van takes him to his next stop.  And getting rid of traffic congestion means he can do 30% to 40% more jobs everyday.  More money per Plumber but less plumber jobs.

Will this be disruptive?  You betcha.  Again from the long post.  The last highlighted line is why this will happen.

------------

Fallout

Disruptive innovation does not take kindly to entrenched competitors—like Blockbuster, Barnes and Noble, and Polaroid, it is unlikely that major automakers like General Motors, Ford, and Toyota will survive the leap. They are geared to produce millions of cars in dozens of different varieties to cater to individual taste and have far too much overhead to sustain such a dramatic decrease in sales. I think that most will be bankrupt by 2030, while startup automakers like Tesla will thrive on a smaller number of fleet sales to operators like Uber by offering standardized models with fewer options.

Ancillary industries such as the $198 billion automobile insurance market, $98 billion automotive finance market, $100 billion parking industry, and the $300 billion automotive aftermarket will collapse as demand for their services evaporates. We will see the obsolescence of rental car companies, public transportation systems, and, good riddance, parking, and speeding tickets.

But we will see the transformation of far more than just consumer transportation: self-driving semis, buses, earth movers, and delivery trucks could obviate the need for professional drivers and the support industries that surround them.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics lists that 915,000 people are employed in motor vehicles and parts manufacturing. Truck, bus, delivery, and taxi drivers account for nearly 6 million professional driving jobs. Virtually all of these jobs will be eliminated within 10-15 years, and this list is by no means exhaustive.

But despite the job loss and wholesale destruction of industries, eliminating the needs for car ownership will yield over $1 trillion in additional disposable income—and that is going to usher in an era of unprecedented efficiency, innovation, and job creation.


-----------

Driverless cars are going to change society more than the invention of the PC.  The epic change is to come and it coming (almost literally) tomorrow with the driverless car.
« Last Edit: May 24, 2015, 09:16:34 AM by Heisenberg »

Tugg Speedman

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Re: Google Self-driving car
« Reply #43 on: May 24, 2015, 09:33:12 AM »
I actually agree with Chicos on this one.   I will be one of the last holdouts for driving myself.   I will go absolutely insane if I am sitting in a car going the exact same speed as all of the other cars.  The idea of a journey being the same as an amusement park ride where all of the cars stay the exact same distance apart is nauseating.    I enjoy the occasional random detour down the road less traveled.   The one with curves and hills.   Or scenic vistas.    Getting in a car, punching in a destination,  and then just sitting back and napping or surfing the net has absolutely no appeal.      I accept that it may happen in my lifetime, but I cannot imagine celebrating it.  

In 1998 economist Paul Krugman was ask to write something for the "coming new millennium" edition of TIME magazine.  He said this about the internet:

http://www.businessinsider.com/paul-krugman-bitcoin-2013-12

The growth of the Internet will slow drastically, as the flaw in 'Metcalfe's law'–which states that the number of potential connections in a network is proportional to the square of the number of participants–becomes apparent: most people have nothing to say to each other! By 2005 or so, it will become clear that the Internet's impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine's.


Don't be like this guy ...

Tugg Speedman

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Re: Google Self-driving car
« Reply #44 on: May 27, 2015, 09:47:42 AM »
Note this is a self-parking car, not self-driving.  Self-parking features have been available from auto makers for years.

Want to know why the driver-less car means current auto markers are going out of business because a new set new set of auto makers are going to take over?  See the highlighted part below.  Probably one of the dumbest business strategies I've heard of in some time.

"Oh, you wanted the version that does not kill people?  That's extra money.  But you're welcome to buy the version that does kill people for less money.  Your call!"

--------------------------

Self-parking Volvo ploughs into journalists after owner neglects to pay for extra feature that stops cars crashing into people

Wednesday 27 May 2015

http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/news/selfparking-volvo-plows-into-journalists-after-owner-neglects-to-pay-for-extra-feature-that-stops-cars-crashing-into-people-10277203.html

A video showing a car attempting to park but actually plowing into journalists might have resulted from the Volvo’s owner not paying an extra fee to have the car avoid pedestrians.

The video, taken in the Dominican Republic, shows a Volvo XC60 reversing itself, waiting, and then driving back into pedestrians at speed. The horrifying pictures went viral and were presumed to have resulted from a malfunction with the car — but the car might not have had the ability to recognise a human at all.

30 second video of the car running over journalist
https://youtu.be/_8nnhUCtcO8

The accident may have happened because owners have to pay for a special feature known as “pedestrian detection functionality”, which costs extra. The cars do have auto-braking features as standard, but only for avoiding other cars — if they are to avoid crashing into pedestrians, too, then owners must pay extra.

“It appears as if the car in this video is not equipped with Pedestrian detection,” Volvo spokesperson Johan Larsson told Fusion. “This is sold as a separate package.”

The feature uses a radar and camera to see pedestrians.

Even if the car had been fitted with such functionality, the driver would likely have overridden it because of the way they were driving, Larsson told Fusion.

“The pedestrian detection would likely have been inactivated due to the driver inactivating it by intentionally and actively accelerating,” Larsson said. “Hence, the auto braking function is overrided by the driver and deactivated.”

The blog that uploaded the video said that the two men “were bruised but are ok”. They said that “sources” had told them that “the drivers forgot to turn on ‘City-Safe’ mode”.

‘City-Safe’ is the mode that stops the cars from crashing into others when they are moving at 30 mph or less. But even if the mode were turned on, it’s unable to spot humans.
« Last Edit: May 27, 2015, 11:01:47 AM by Heisenberg »

Benny B

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Re: Google Self-driving car
« Reply #45 on: May 27, 2015, 10:40:28 AM »
The way to make this safe is nothing more than a spin-off of ATR technology that's been available to and (refined by) the military over decades.  A combination of CCDs, sensors, radar, mapping software, image recognition, infra-red cameras, and a small microprocessor can make decisions a lot better than 16 year-old, a lot faster than a 73 year-old, and can see things (at night, blind spots, outside the peripheral vision of the human eye, etc.) that no person can see.
Wow, I'm very concerned for Benny.  Being able to mimic Myron Medcalf's writing so closely implies an oncoming case of dementia.

MUWarrior2007

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Re: Google Self-driving car
« Reply #46 on: May 27, 2015, 11:39:17 AM »

[/i]
-------------

So the future is millions of autonomous "taxis"  They come in all shape and sizes.  Basic transportation, luxury for a special night out.  Vans (buses) for large groups, pick-up and vans for other specialized uses.  As the passage above says, press a button on your phone and one shows up at your front door 30 seconds later (because they are a dozen empty ones driving around within a few blocks of your home).


-----------

Driverless cars are going to change society more than the invention of the PC.  The epic change is to come and it coming (almost literally) tomorrow with the driverless car.


Obviously, you're hugely in favor of this.  Personally, I like the idea of having my own personal car (even if it eventually is auto-driven), and unless Uber or some other service were literally charging pennies per mile, it currently wouldn't make sense for me to have to wait on a vehicle.  

Further, I'm curious how your 30-second figure equates for people who live in rural areas.  I'll give you an example: this weekend, I was about 45 minutes west of Lincoln, Nebraska, visiting family on a farm.  The closest town is about 5 minutes drive away, and has 497 people in it.  How do the people who live in this area get a car to them in 30-seconds or less when they don't even have pizza delivery, public transport, or a school within a 20 minute drive?

I think we'll eventually have all automated vehicles, but I think 10-years is a bit ambitious, and I think you're a bit overzealous in your defense of and advocacy for the technology.  Just because people are skeptical does not mean you can demean their intelligence.

StillAWarrior

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Re: Google Self-driving car
« Reply #47 on: May 27, 2015, 01:00:00 PM »
One theory on how this will work that I've read is that people will use off-site parking.  This is compatible with private ownership of cars (and also compatible with wide-spread use of fee-based cars).  Your car would drive you to work; drop you off; go park itself 15 miles away; and come back to get you at a designated time.  Some car owners would be content to have their car sit in a parking lot during this time.  Others might prefer to have the car out earning its keep as a taxi until needed again.

It will be interesting to see how it all works.
Never wrestle with a pig.  You both get dirty, and the pig likes it.

Tugg Speedman

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Re: Google Self-driving car
« Reply #48 on: May 27, 2015, 01:04:23 PM »
Obviously, you're hugely in favor of this.  Personally, I like the idea of having my own personal car (even if it eventually is auto-driven), and unless Uber or some other service were literally charging pennies per mile, it currently wouldn't make sense for me to have to wait on a vehicle.  

Further, I'm curious how your 30-second figure equates for people who live in rural areas.  I'll give you an example: this weekend, I was about 45 minutes west of Lincoln, Nebraska, visiting family on a farm.  The closest town is about 5 minutes drive away, and has 497 people in it.  How do the people who live in this area get a car to them in 30-seconds or less when they don't even have pizza delivery, public transport, or a school within a 20 minute drive?

I think we'll eventually have all automated vehicles, but I think 10-years is a bit ambitious, and I think you're a bit overzealous in your defense of and advocacy for the technology.  Just because people are skeptical does not mean you can demean their intelligence.

Just like broadband, the rural areas will be the last to get driver-less cars.   With broadband Washington called it the "digital divide" and passed legislation to bring broadband to the rural areas.  I suspect they will be screaming about the "driver-less divide" and step in to get them to the rural areas as well.

Look for urban areas to ban driver cars.  So driving from Lincoln NE to Omaha, you'll have to stop at a large parking lot outside of town and get into a driver-less car.

Here is the part that everyone is missing, the driver-less car is going to be a fraction of the cost.  That is why it will take over.  It will not only be a lifestyle choice but an economic one as well.  Part of that cost saving is getting rid of the expensive poor decision prone driver.  This means a drop in accidents saving lives and property damage.  The idea is people will demand you stop driving because you're too costly and too dangerous.  We did this 100 years ago with horses.  Cars were cheaper and cleaner and many refused to give up their horse until they were banned in major cities.

Last month Audi had a driver-less car go from the Santa Monica pier to midtown Manhattan.  California approved driver-less cars for road use earlier this month.  Driver-less semis will be on the road this summer.

Driver-less cars exist now.  They are on the road now.  They are driving now.  So it's not about inventing them, that already happened.  It's only about widespread adoption.

Finally, as noted pages earlier, everyone always underestimates how fast technology is adopted.  Read about Moore Law an idea that has affected everyone's life a lot more than you can imagine.
« Last Edit: May 27, 2015, 01:07:24 PM by Heisenberg »

Spotcheck Billy

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Re: Google Self-driving car
« Reply #49 on: May 27, 2015, 02:09:54 PM »
How will driver-less cars work during storms? Will there be 4WDriverless vehicles in the snowbelt? Will driver-less cars be smart enough not to drive into high water in Houston this week?

Will there be pools of commuter driverless cars vs. pools of interstate/longhaul driverless vacation cars you would book differently? book a car to take the family to Disney World, does the car wait in the hotel parking lot until your week is up.

What about visiting other countries that still (God forbid) have only driver-cars, young people would soon never have learned to drive and couldn't rent a car in a foreign country.

Sorry but I cannot see everything being worked out very quickly.