Ellenson NBA prospects

[brandx]

HE isn't staying in a school and additional year(s) to improve his defensive skills---I believed that was where this all started.

Maybe we did get a bit off-track. And I agree with the statement.

[Stretchdeltsig]

Let's not get carried away with Henry's future.  Let him play.  Let him enjoy playing at Marquette just like Kaminski enjoyed his four years at Wisconsin.  The four years at MU may be the most enjoyable and memorable me of his life.

[4everwarriors]

Sorry. Let me try again. I was talking to a guy I've known for 15 years who knows a little bit about play basketball. He said Ellenson is good.

So, Ners is in your posse, hey?

[LloydsLegs]

So, Ners is in your posse, hey?

Touch 'em all, 4ever.

[MU82]

My conversation with a former ESPN guy from this morning:
Him: You guys are going to be pretty good this year considering how bad you were last year.
Me: Agree, it will certainly be exciting.
Him: Too bad that Hauser kid and Ellenson will never play together, though.
Me: You never know. I'm hoping for two years.
Him: No way. It's like Badger fans thinking Dekker would come back this year. Not even in the ballpark of possibility.
Me: Really?
Him: Really. That kid could be a lottery pick if all goes well.

BTW: Badger fans I know are absolutely distraught with the Sam Hauser commitment.  They saw him as the prototypical Bo player and can't understand why they weren't on him years ago.

Well, if a former ESPN guy said it, it's a done deal.

[Dawson Rental]

Let's not get carried away with Henry's future.  Let him play.  Let him enjoy playing at Marquette just like Kaminski enjoyed his four years at Wisconsin.  The four years at MU may be the most enjoyable and memorable me of his life.

Hey, there's no ice cream trucks in the NBA, just Brink's trucks.

[wadesworld]

Here's a question for those who think he'll be at Marquette for at least 2 seasons.  If Ellenson had signed with Kentucky, would you think he would be at Kentucky for at least 2 seasons?

Here's the thing, Ellenson could completely underperform my expectations in terms of numbers and have season averages of, say, 9 points and 4 rebounds, and he'd still be a top 20 draft pick next year.  At 19 years old, with a guard's ball handling ability and shooting ability but standing 6'10", NBA GMs in the mid to late 1st round will jump all over him even if those are his numbers.

I expect his floor to be 13 points and 4 rebounds, and think that he will be a 15 point and 6 rebound guy.  If he gets to even his floor he's a lottery pick.

The absolute only reason he's back for a 2nd year at Marquette is to play out the rest of Wally's career with him, which is possible.

So again, even if he doesn't live up to the standards of those who thinking he will play like a top 10 recruit, based solely on potential an NBA GM will take him in the first round.  Expecting 2 seasons out of him simply because he'll need to develop his game is silly.  If he feels the need to develop his game, he will enter the NBA.  If he wants an extra year with his brother, he'll stay for a 2nd year and be gone after that.

[Goose]

I think he will be one and done and hope for his sake he is one and done!!

[brewcity77]

Honestly, I really haven't given a thought to whether he's one-and-done or a four-year player. I look forward to him playing at Marquette next year. I hope the rest of the team is good enough around him to let next year's team do some special things. Right now, I have definite reservations in that regard, but I'm still excited to see what Henry can do.

[Windyplayer]

Expecting 2 seasons out of him simply because he'll need to develop his game is silly. 

Bold proclamation for a guy that hasn't played in one college basketball game. I suspect you're right based on all accounts, but still a kid making a massive transition from high school bball to high level DI.

[brandx]

Here's a question for those who think he'll be at Marquette for at least 2 seasons.  If Ellenson had signed with Kentucky, would you think he would be at Kentucky for at least 2 seasons?

Here's the thing, Ellenson could completely underperform my expectations in terms of numbers and have season averages of, say, 9 points and 4 rebounds, and he'd still be a top 20 draft pick next year.  At 19 years old, with a guard's ball handling ability and shooting ability but standing 6'10", NBA GMs in the mid to late 1st round will jump all over him even if those are his numbers.

I expect his floor to be 13 points and 4 rebounds, and think that he will be a 15 point and 6 rebound guy.  If he gets to even his floor he's a lottery pick.

The absolute only reason he's back for a 2nd year at Marquette is to play out the rest of Wally's career with him, which is possible.

So again, even if he doesn't live up to the standards of those who thinking he will play like a top 10 recruit, based solely on potential an NBA GM will take him in the first round.  Expecting 2 seasons out of him simply because he'll need to develop his game is silly.  If he feels the need to develop his game, he will enter the NBA.  If he wants an extra year with his brother, he'll stay for a 2nd year and be gone after that.

I disagree, Wade. But we will see.

The Harrison twins were locks to be lottery picks after 1 year - until they weren't. Same with Dakari Johnson and Alex Poythress.

"a guard's ball handling ability and shooting ability but standing 6'10" is a bit of hyperbole and I think 6'10" may be a bit of a stretch. He may be 6'10" the way Draymond Green was 6'7".

HE is going to be an outstanding player, but I don't think he'll be gone after one year.

[wadesworld]

Bold proclamation for a guy that hasn't played in one college basketball game. I suspect you're right based on all accounts, but still a kid making a massive transition from high school bball to high level DI.

I'm just saying that if his reason for staying is to develop his game then the best place to do that is in the NBA.  I doubt GMs and coaches in the NBA are going to say, "Well, we'd draft you, but we think you need to develop your game and think Coach Wojo is the best option to do that."  The guy is oozing with potential, and NBA organizations will be jumping at the opportunity to develop that.

I disagree, Wade. But we will see.

The Harrison twins were locks to be lottery picks after 1 year - until they weren't. Same with Dakari Johnson and Alex Poythress.

"a guard's ball handling ability and shooting ability but standing 6'10" is a bit of hyperbole and I think 6'10" may be a bit of a stretch. He may be 6'10" the way Draymond Green was 6'7".

HE is going to be an outstanding player, but I don't think he'll be gone after one year.

I think the guy you should be looking at is Trey Lyles.  They are more or less identical players both in size and skillset.  Trey's numbers this year?  8 and 5.  Where he'll get drafted?  Lottery.  When you have the combination of size, athleticism, and skill that Henry and Trey have (each of the players you list from Kentucky lacked at least 1 of those 3 things), you don't even need to show you have it in 1 year in college to be a lottery pick.

[wadesworld]

Also, take a look at the top 10 recruits last year.  Okafor, Mudiay, Johnson, Alexander, Towns, Oubre, Jones, Vaughn, Turner, Looney.

10 out of 10 of those players will be drafted in the NBA Draft, with a minimum of 8 in the first round and possibly all 10 (most likely 9, with Alexander early in the 2nd round and possibly Vaughn slips to the early 2nd round).  I get that a top 25 ranking can be off and certainly top 50 or top 75 can be horribly missed, but they very rarely get the top 5-10 wrong, and that's where Henry is in not just 1 site, but every single site.

There is no reason to "hold back" on the expectations for Henry.  Every single recruiting website and NBA Draft website has seen him against the top competition in the world and thinks he belongs in the same group as those above.  Thankfully coach Wojo doesn't seem to be doing that, saying multiple times that he's a special talent and one of, if not the, best players in the country.  I'm glad our coach isn't going to baby him as he comes in.  Wojo clearly expects a lot from him, and so do I.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Also, take a look at the top 10 recruits last year.  Okafor, Mudiay, Johnson, Alexander, Towns, Oubre, Jones, Vaughn, Turner, Looney.

10 out of 10 of those players will be drafted in the NBA Draft, with a minimum of 8 in the first round and possibly all 10 (most likely 9, with Alexander early in the 2nd round and possibly Vaughn slips to the early 2nd round).  I get that a top 25 ranking can be off and certainly top 50 or top 75 can be horribly missed, but they very rarely get the top 5-10 wrong, and that's where Henry is in not just 1 site, but every single site.

There is no reason to "hold back" on the expectations for Henry.  Every single recruiting website and NBA Draft website has seen him against the top competition in the world and thinks he belongs in the same group as those above.  Thankfully coach Wojo doesn't seem to be doing that, saying multiple times that he's a special talent and one of, if not the, best players in the country.  I'm glad our coach isn't going to baby him as he comes in.  Wojo clearly expects a lot from him, and so do I.

That part isn't true. He's as low as 23. Still very good. But not 5-10 everywhere.

[brewcity77]

Also, take a look at the top 10 recruits last year.  Okafor, Mudiay, Johnson, Alexander, Towns, Oubre, Jones, Vaughn, Turner, Looney.

That may be one list, but the RSCI had Justin Jackson (returning to school) in the top 10. In the 2014 Draft, 4 of the top 10 came back (Chris Walker, Dakari Johnson, Andrew & Aaron Harrison). In 2013, 6 of the top 10, Justin Anderson, Isaac Austin, Anthony Bennett, Kaleb Tarczewski, Alex Poythress, and Marcus Smart, came back. In the 2012 Draft, it was 4/10 coming back -- James McAdoo, LeBryan Nash, Adonis Thomas, and Cody Zeller. In 2011 it was 3/10, including the #1 and #2 players in the RSCI rankings that didn't declare early, with Harrison Barnes, Jared Sullinger, and Perry Jones all coming back.

This year is the exception in that only one top-10 player is coming back. Most years it is multiple players. Maybe Henry goes, maybe he doesn't, but if you look at the last 5 years, 18/50 top-10 RSCI players did not declare after their freshman year. That's a 36% chance any top-10 player would be back.

10 out of 10 of those players will be drafted in the NBA Draft, with a minimum of 8 in the first round and possibly all 10 (most likely 9, with Alexander early in the 2nd round and possibly Vaughn slips to the early 2nd round).  I get that a top 25 ranking can be off and certainly top 50 or top 75 can be horribly missed, but they very rarely get the top 5-10 wrong, and that's where Henry is in not just 1 site, but every single site.

Again, there's a 36% chance he comes back, but Henry isn't top-10 on every single site. Far from it. Rivals lists Henry as #11. 247 Sports has him all the way down at #23. In the last RSCI ranking, Henry wasn't even top-10 on the average of all systems used! I expect he'll move up from #11 when the next list comes around, but you vastly overstate his rankings here. He's a big recruit. He's generally considered a top-10 guy and was deserving of the McDonald's accolade. But let's be honest about his rankings.

There is no reason to "hold back" on the expectations for Henry.  Every single recruiting website and NBA Draft website has seen him against the top competition in the world and thinks he belongs in the same group as those above.  Thankfully coach Wojo doesn't seem to be doing that, saying multiple times that he's a special talent and one of, if not the, best players in the country.  I'm glad our coach isn't going to baby him as he comes in.  Wojo clearly expects a lot from him, and so do I.

I have high hopes for Henry. I have no idea what he will do because guys adjust to this level differently. Will the offense run through him or Duane? Will the physicality of the Big East be a bigger adjustment for him than a guy who plays at a bigger school? Will there be any lingering affects of his hand injury? I don't know the answer to any of these questions. If I were guessing, I would expect Henry to be our best player next year. Does that translate to an early entry and a lottery pick? Maybe. I'd even say there's a 64% chance that happens. But acting like it's a foregone conclusion is just silly.

Prognosticators are wrong all the time. They have been wrong about high school prospects and they have been wrong about draft boards made over a year in advance. Let's just let the kid play rather than trying to guess what he will or won't be when the reality of it is we won't know until he gets on the court.

[Windyplayer]

I'm just saying that if his reason for staying is to develop his game then the best place to do that is in the NBA.  I doubt GMs and coaches in the NBA are going to say, "Well, we'd draft you, but we think you need to develop your game and think Coach Wojo is the best option to do that."  The guy is oozing with potential, and NBA organizations will be jumping at the opportunity to develop that.

Point taken, but to be drafted, you have to have shown that you're capable of playing in the NBA immediately. Of course, teams draft on potential, but it's also a player that's crossed that threshold of proven talent on the floor in college, overseas, etc. So what I'm asserting is that it's a pretty big assumption to say that he will reach that threshold when he's still in high school.

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

I predict Henry will play between 1 and 4 seasons at Marquette.

[dgies9156]

Suggestion:  This is a 17-going-on-18-year-old man who has yet to step on the Marquette campus as a student.

Let's let him show up on campus and practice with the team before we determine his NBA draft fortunes.


Please??????