Would you fly on a pilotless passenger jet?

[muwarrior69]

http://money.cnn.com/2015/03/27/news/companies/pilotless-passenger-planes/index.html

It just might be a generational thing for me, but I would feel better if there were a pilot.

[tower912]

There are several jokes for this one, but it may be too soon.    On a serious note, autonomous cars are coming, too. 

[Blackhat]

No thanks.  I could see the soviets intercepting controls and nose diving me into the Rocky Mountains.

[mu03eng]

If you didn't see into the cockpit would you know the difference?

I wouldn't care, as long as I get to where I'm going on time and at a reasonable price....deal me in.

[Tugg Speedman]

There are several jokes for this one, but it may be too soon.    On a serious note, autonomous cars are coming, too.  

A huge change is coming to our economy.  

Currently we have 4.5 million jobs loosely titled "driver"  That is cabbies, truck drivers, pilots, forklifts, loaders, etc.  "Driver" is the largest job title in the United States.

The technology is almost there now to automate these jobs, maybe 3 to 5 years away.  What will drive the change to "driverless" is insurance rates.  20 years from now if you want to buy a car you drive, in a world of driverless cars, your insurance rate could run several thousand dollars.  Driverless insurance rates could run a few hundred dollars.  This is what will push the change to driverless.

In the future, push a button on your phone and within two minutes a driverless car shows up and takes you where you want to go.  And if you add up the cost of these hundreds and hundreds of driverless car rides, it will total far less than what you pay now to own your "driver car."

Question, what happens to the 4.5 million people that have "driver jobs?"  Elimination of those jobs cannot be stopped, they are going away.  But what happens when this low barrier to entry largely unskilled job disappears?

---------------

Let me head off the typical question about driverless cars.  Right now human drivers kill 40,000 and injury 400,000 a year.  Driverless cars do not have to be perfect.  They will still kill and injury.  They will just do it at a far lower rate than humans.  And when people realize human drivers on the road with driverless cars makes everything worse, insurance rates for human drivers skyrockets forcing the change.

[4everwarriors]

Better question would be how many y'all would get in a plane with keefe shoutin' the buggy?

[Benny B]

I'd happily fly on a pilotless plane today.  Give me a chance to try out my mad Flight Sim skillz in real life.

[wadesworld]

Better question would be how many y'all would get in a plane with keefe shoutin' the buggy?

That's what I thought this thread was going to be about from the cut off subject preview.

[ChicosBailBonds]

There are several jokes for this one, but it may be too soon.    On a serious note, autonomous cars are coming, too. 

With GM being one of the builders, I'm running for the hills.

[ChicosBailBonds]

A huge change is coming to our economy.  

Currently we have 4.5 million jobs loosely titled "driver"  That is cabbies, truck drivers, pilots, forklifts, loaders, etc.  "Driver" is the largest job title in the United States.

The technology is almost there now to automate these jobs, maybe 3 to 5 years away.  What will drive the change to "driverless" is insurance rates.  20 years from now if you want to buy a car you drive, in a world of driverless cars, your insurance rate could run several thousand dollars.  Driverless insurance rates could run a few hundred dollars.  This is what will push the change to driverless.

In the future, push a button on your phone and within two minutes a driverless car shows up and takes you where you want to go.  And if you add up the cost of these hundreds and hundreds of driverless car rides, it will total far less than what you pay now to own your "driver car."

Question, what happens to the 4.5 million people that have "driver jobs?"  Elimination of those jobs cannot be stopped, they are going away.  But what happens when this low barrier to entry largely unskilled job disappears?

---------------

Let me head off the typical question about driverless cars.  Right now human drivers kill 40,000 and injury 400,000 a year.  Driverless cars do not have to be perfect.  They will still kill and injury.  They will just do it at a far lower rate than humans.  And when people realize human drivers on the road with driverless cars makes everything worse, insurance rates for human drivers skyrockets forcing the change.

I think you are highly optimistic to say 3 to 5 years away.  Just wait until the first few massive accidents that happen, the huge drop in confidence by the public, the lawsuits, etc.   The cost of these cars is going to be insane.  Remember the predictions of electric cars by 2015, and the number is a fraction of what was predicted....laughably off track.  One reason is cost and adoption rates are based on cost.  It was one thing for the gov't to subsidize electric cars and scream it helps the environment (without ever disclosing the batteries are destructive as hell for the enviornment), but it will be politically challenging for the gov't to subsidize driverless cars when it takes the lowest skilled workers out of te loop.  Sure, it will add high tech jobs, repairmen, etc, but that's a tough one politically.

Personally, I'm a very good driver.  Yes, there some really poor drivers out there that I'd love to get off the road.  I do think eventually accidents would be reduced as you claim, but I also believe there is a sense of freedom with driving that will be difficult to overcome.  Also think your time horizon is too optimistic.

[Coleman]

A huge change is coming to our economy.  

Currently we have 4.5 million jobs loosely titled "driver"  That is cabbies, truck drivers, pilots, forklifts, loaders, etc.  "Driver" is the largest job title in the United States.

Let's get rid of the Warthog drivers first! 

[Tugg Speedman]

I think you are highly optimistic to say 3 to 5 years away.  Just wait until the first few massive accidents that happen, the huge drop in confidence by the public, the lawsuits, etc.   The cost of these cars is going to be insane.  Remember the predictions of electric cars by 2015, and the number is a fraction of what was predicted....laughably off track.  One reason is cost and adoption rates are based on cost.  It was one thing for the gov't to subsidize electric cars and scream it helps the environment (without ever disclosing the batteries are destructive as hell for the enviornment), but it will be politically challenging for the gov't to subsidize driverless cars when it takes the lowest skilled workers out of te loop.  Sure, it will add high tech jobs, repairmen, etc, but that's a tough one politically.

Personally, I'm a very good driver.  Yes, there some really poor drivers out there that I'd love to get off the road.  I do think eventually accidents would be reduced as you claim, but I also believe there is a sense of freedom with driving that will be difficult to overcome.  Also think your time horizon is too optimistic.

Actually the technology exists now.  I said three to five years to be conservative.  Adoption and application is another story.

The driverless car argument is their is nothing but death and carnage on the roads now.  Yes, it will not be perfect, but it will be better than sleepy tractor trailer drivers and distracted parents that number in the tens of thousands now.

[Spotcheck Billy]

As a Harley rider I would welcome driverless cars, probably a lot safer than riding with the idiot cagers that are out there now.

[🏀]

As a Harley rider I would welcome driverless cars, probably a lot safer than riding with the idiot cagers that are out there now.

As a car driver, I would welcome driverless Harleys, probably a lot safer than riding with those idiot motorcyclists that are out there now.

[Coleman]

As a car driver, I would welcome driverless Harleys, probably a lot safer than riding with those idiot motorcyclists that are out there now.

+1

[Spotcheck Billy]

nm

[ChicosBailBonds]

As a car driver, I would welcome driverless Harleys, probably a lot safer than riding with those idiot motorcyclists that are out there now.

Amen.  The jokers that thread the needle out here in California zipping in between cars going 65 to 75.  The number of people they have to scoop brains up with a ladel is sad.  I say this as a motorcycle enthusiast.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Actually the technology exists now.  I said three to five years to be conservative.  Adoption and application is another story.

The driverless car argument is their is nothing but death and carnage on the roads now.  Yes, it will not be perfect, but it will be better than sleepy tractor trailer drivers and distracted parents that number in the tens of thousands now.

The technology exists at still a very early stage.  The point is that application and adoption is all that really matters.  It will be a long long long long long time before this is anywhere near happening to any degree that it matters.

[Spotcheck Billy]

^ California is the only state where lane splitting is legal although most other countries allow it

but if you're not posting about lane splitting, we refer to those riders as "organ donors", usually under-experienced riders on crotch rockets

[wadesworld]

Amen.  The jokers that thread the needle out here in California zipping in between cars going 65 to 75.  The number of people they have to scoop brains up with a ladel is sad.  I say this as a motorcycle enthusiast.

Yeah my first experience driving in SoCal was eye opening with those motorcyclists driving between lanes to split traffic while traffic was going 75 as it was...just plain stupid.

[ChicosBailBonds]

^ California is the only state where lane splitting is legal although most other countries allow it

but if you're not posting about lane splitting, we refer to those riders as "organ donors", usually under-experienced riders on crotch rockets

It's really scary.  My morning drive each day I can't tell you how many times my breath is taken away by some guy out of nowhere that blows by me in between my truck and some guy to my right.  Almost all of them these days have Go Pros on their helmets, I assume to record their demise or for a lawsuit claim. 

[tower912]

I've got stories about cleaning up after inexperienced crotch-rocket riders, I've got stories about cleaning up after helmetless crashes, I've got stories about stories about a (IIRC) Harley rider getting hit from the side and having his leg getting caught in the chain drive, I've got stories about underaged moped riders.    Of course, I also have multiple drunk driving clean up stories, old people getting the gas and brake pedals confused.     I will never say I've seen it all, but I've seen a lot.  

[ChitownSpaceForRent]

Ugh, motorcycles scare the crap out of me too. In terms of planes though, I don't like taking them with pilots let alone without.

[GOO]

I think you are highly optimistic to say 3 to 5 years away.  Just wait until the first few massive accidents that happen, the huge drop in confidence by the public, the lawsuits, etc.   The cost of these cars is going to be insane.  Remember the predictions of electric cars by 2015, and the number is a fraction of what was predicted....laughably off track.  One reason is cost and adoption rates are based on cost.  It was one thing for the gov't to subsidize electric cars and scream it helps the environment (without ever disclosing the batteries are destructive as hell for the enviornment), but it will be politically challenging for the gov't to subsidize driverless cars when it takes the lowest skilled workers out of te loop.  Sure, it will add high tech jobs, repairmen, etc, but that's a tough one politically.

Personally, I'm a very good driver.  Yes, there some really poor drivers out there that I'd love to get off the road.  I do think eventually accidents would be reduced as you claim, but I also believe there is a sense of freedom with driving that will be difficult to overcome.  Also think your time horizon is too optimistic.

I'm sure it is true, but did you ever notice how few people think that they are bad drivers.  Everyone thinks they are above average as far as driving.  The guy that cruises by 20 miles faster than traffic or swerving in and out of traffic, usually think they are somehow superior drivers with superior skills and reflexes. Not calling you out, just meant as a general comment.

Anyway, the 3 to 5 year time line is very optimistic on self driving cars.  Sure, these cars that help one drive are available now, but isn't the average age of cars on the road around 10 years old? 

I buy a car about every 10 years and I'm due to 4 or 5 years.  I for one plan on it being a car with "auto pilot" purely for safety reasons. Not self driving at least not in cities. It won't be common place by then.   I'm hoping Tesla is still around and has proven to  be a reliable car by then.

But, the adoption, despite insurance rates, will be slow.  In 10 years there will be a lot of "auto pilot" type of cars but they will still share the road with as many driver cars.  In 20 years it will be different. 

[Skatastrophy]

I would prefer planes without pilots.