Big East outlook

[HutchwasClutch]

Big East programs - those in good hands, i.e. solid coaches leading their programs, highly likely for sustained success -

The Haves
MU
Villanova
Creighton
Georgetown
Xavier

The Have Nots
Seton Hall  (Willard is a bad coach - their performances in two losses to us this year, just reeked of a poorly coached team, undiscplined, negative body language on many players, couldn't figure out that Carlino couldn't be left open and he killed them in NY)
Providence
DePaul
St. John's (not sold at all on Lavin, he can recruit, but plenty of talent this year and really up and down year for them)


Maybe
Butler - great first year for their new coach, don't know enough about him, or seen them play enough to have a strong opinion yet.  They seem to likely be a Have program however.  But Holtman got the gig under very difficult circumstances, hard for me to believe what they've done this year is a fluke.

Have at it MU Nation

[brewcity77]

While I have faith in Wojo, I think we belong in the maybe category until he proves he can coach as well as he can recruit. I'd put Providence in the have category. Cooley is a good recruiter and coach. They may not be a perennial power, but I think he'll keep them in the top half most years.

[HutchwasClutch]

While I have faith in Wojo, I think we belong in the maybe category until he proves he can coach as well as he can recruit. I'd put Providence in the have category. Cooley is a good recruiter and coach. They may not be a perennial power, but I think he'll keep them in the top half most years.

I'm not sold on Cooley.  Besides the turd last night Providence turned in against a weak Dayton team, one of our meager 4 regular season conference win total came against them.  They had a nice year, but his success so far there has been quite underwhelming.  I think he's yet to win an NCAA game, and last night on paper should have been a walk in the park for them.

If I were being generous, I would have put Providence as a maybe.  But no way do I consider them a Have program.

[wadesworld]

Butler is more proven than all but 2 programs in this conference.

[WarriorFan]

Big East programs - those in good hands, i.e. solid coaches leading their programs, highly likely for sustained success -

The Haves
MU
Villanova
Creighton
Georgetown
Xavier

The Have Nots
Seton Hall  (Willard is a bad coach - their performances in two losses to us this year, just reeked of a poorly coached team, undiscplined, negative body language on many players, couldn't figure out that Carlino couldn't be left open and he killed them in NY)
Providence
DePaul
St. John's (not sold at all on Lavin, he can recruit, but plenty of talent this year and really up and down year for them)


Maybe
Butler - great first year for their new coach, don't know enough about him, or seen them play enough to have a strong opinion yet.  They seem to likely be a Have program however.  But Holtman got the gig under very difficult circumstances, hard for me to believe what they've done this year is a fluke.

Have at it MU Nation

I'd look at it a little differently:

Elite Potential - Consistently:
MU
Nova
GT

Just Fine
X
Creighton
Providence
Butler

Messed Up
DePaul
St Johns
Seton Hall

The just fine programs will never get the top recruits, never have the great coaches, etc. to be a final four team, but they will make the tournament regularly, be solid and consistent and fit well in the Big East.

The messed up programs we need around so there are bottom feeders in the conference.  Lavin is like Crean, good recruiter, couldn't coach a 5th grade team.  St. John's has potential to move out of the messed up category and even into the elite category.  The other two look to be permanently messed up.

The elite potential is based on tradition, commitment from the university administration, quality of the staff, recruiting capability, fan base, and expectations of all of these stakeholders.  Based on the last 2 years alone, MU is actually in the messed up category, but taking a long term view, they are definitely in the elite potential category.  Elite potential means repeat elite 8 performances, making the tournament every year, and occasional forays into the final four.  

I also think that this is how new entrants to the league should be judged.  Dayton would be a "just fine" program.  So would Gonzaga.  Bringing back UConn, Syracuse, (excluding recent issues), ND would bring in elite potential teams.  

Also, never want more than 3/10 messed up programs.  Hard to get 6 teams in the tournament when 4 of the 10 in the league really suck.  This year was an exception, imho.  

[HutchwasClutch]

While I have faith in Wojo, I think we belong in the maybe category until he proves he can coach as well as he can recruit. I'd put Providence in the have category. Cooley is a good recruiter and coach. They may not be a perennial power, but I think he'll keep them in the top half most years.

Before Carlino's concussion, we were going to toe to toe with almost everbody, home and away.  The 'Nova road and conference tournament games being the exceptions ( Carlino played in the home game against 'Nova0, which even the best of the best in college ball wouldn't have been able to do anything with given the talent, experience, and depth disparity between us and 'Nova this year.

Wojo showed his coaching chops a lot this year.  He made fools of better talented, but weakly coached teams like Ga Tech and Seton Hall, even Tennessee.  Heck, they stayed with Bucky for 30 plus minutes and had that a one possession game when by rights talent and experience on paper suggested that should have been over before halftime.

Wojo can coach.  

[HutchwasClutch]

Butler is more proven than all but 2 programs in this conference.

My post was about where the 10 programs are headed as things stand today in my view, not where they've been.

[HutchwasClutch]

Actually DePaul could put itself in the Haves if they make the right hire.  Although, there seems to be consensus everywhere that the powers that be at that school just aren't bought in to making that program relevant again, so I guess they even with the right hire, they're no more than in the Maybe category.

[brewcity77]

I think Wojo will be fine. All I'm saying is he has to prove it by winning before we can put ourselves in the same class as Nova and Georgetown.

[HutchwasClutch]

I think Wojo will be fine. All I'm saying is he has to prove it by winning before we can put ourselves in the same class as Nova and Georgetown.

I'm only putting us in Georgetown, 'Nova et al's class in the sense we're in good hands and setup for future success.  The degree of that success I didn't intend to weigh in on by starting this thread.

And you're right of course that he has to prove it.  I just think there's evidence already as I pointed out in my earlier post that he can coach and prepare a team as well as recruit.

[Wojo'sMojo]

My post was about where the 10 programs are headed as things stand today in my view, not where they've been.

So we just finished in last place and we are headed towards elite status? You can like our recruiting class coming in, but they, as well as Wojo haven't proven anything yet. I think Wojo is going to do well here, but I'm not as positive as I was before the season started. By including MU in the "elite" category, you are being a MU homer based on what we know now.

[HutchwasClutch]

So we just finished in last place and we are headed towards elite status? You can like our recruiting class coming in, but they, as well as Wojo haven't proven anything yet. I think Wojo is going to do well here, but I'm not as positive as I was before the season started. By including MU in the "elite" category, you are being a MU homer based on what we know now.

Holy cow, I never said that!!!  WTF dude?

And my post right above yours I clarified I didn't start this intending to give an opinion on the degree of success of the 10 programs, just merely stating who is in good hands and setup for sustained success.  So you're reading waaaay more into it than what I actually stated.

[Nukem2]

Butler is more proven than all but 2 programs in this conference.

The thing with Butler is whether or not Holtmann can replace the Brad Stevens recruits.  Kameron Woods and Alex Barlow graduate this year.  Kellen Dunham and Roosevelt Jones have on e more season to go, leaving only Andwre Chabazsc (though he never did play for Stevens).   Holtmann surely can coach.  Recruiting...we shall see.

[HutchwasClutch]

The thing with Butler is whether or not Holtmann can replace the Brad Stevens recruits.  Kameron Woods and Alex Barlow graduate this year.  Kellen Dunham and Roosevelt Jones have on e more season to go, leaving only Andwre Chabazsc (though he never did play for Stevens).   Holtmann surely can coach.  Recruiting...we shall see.

Agreed and exactly why I have their success outlook in the Maybe category as things stand today.

[RubyWiscy]

Has Butler fully committed to the current coach or are they still planing to bring back the guy with anxiety issues? I haven't paid enough attention.

[Wojo'sMojo]

Holy cow, I never said that!!!  WTF dude?

And my post right above yours I clarified I didn't start this intending to give an opinion on the degree of success of the 10 programs, just merely stating who is in good hands and setup for sustained success.  So you're reading waaaay more into it than what I actually stated.

My bad, I was skimming quickly and just reread it.

[wadesworld]

My post was about where the 10 programs are headed as things stand today in my view, not where they've been.

Gotcha.  Makes sense.  In my mind I think Butler is about as solid as you can ask for outside of the top tier of basketball schools (UNC, Duke, UK, Florida, Kansas, etc.).  Sure they will have their down year here or there, but who doesn't?  They are a program that has an identity no matter who is on the sidelines for them and will always be a tough team to beat.  They will consistently make the Tournament and have years where they have the potential to make a really deep tournament run.  In my mind, Marquette and Georgetown fit this description as well, and the only program who I think has a trajectory better than that in the Big East is Villinova.  Hopefully Marquette and Georgetown can prove me wrong and be more than that, but that's what I have seen in the past and what I see going forward.

[willie warrior]

While I have faith in Wojo, I think we belong in the maybe category until he proves he can coach as well as he can recruit. I'd put Providence in the have category. Cooley is a good recruiter and coach. They may not be a perennial power, but I think he'll keep them in the top half most years.

Agreed on Wojo, Brew. I love MU, but many of us cannot see beyond the Blue and Gold prisms. In the last two years we went 30 and 34, with no sniff of post season play. Wojo has us on the right track in recruiting, but he has shown ability as a game coach, yet. Hopefully we see significant improvement next season, and he lands a couple of top recruits from the 2016 class. By the end of next season, we will have a much better idea.

[GGGG]

Has Butler fully committed to the current coach or are they still planing to bring back the guy with anxiety issues? I haven't paid enough attention.

The current guy is their permanent coach.

[PGsHeroes32]

I think Wojo will be fine. All I'm saying is he has to prove it by winning before we can put ourselves in the same class as Nova and Georgetown.

The point is looking at the programs as a whole though. Obviously with a coaching change and major turnover you will be bad for that year but MU has consistently had success under multiple coaches.

Providence hasn't even won a tourney game since 97.

Wojo "unproven" or not. We are higher than them.

[RushmoreAcademy]

We are in no position to be questioning Butler.  If what they've done over the past decade isn't enough, I'm not sure what else they can do to convince somebody.

[The Equalizer]

 
Also, never want more than 3/10 messed up programs.  Hard to get 6 teams in the tournament when 4 of the 10 in the league really suck.  This year was an exception, imho.  

The only way we get 6 or 7 teams in is if the bottom really suck.  This year we had 6 teams .500 and above, and 4 with records of .333 and below in conference.  6 teams with 20 wins, and 4 teams with overall losing records.

Consider what might have happened if MU and Creighton each won just one more game each against Xavier and St. Johns. If that had happened, only 4 Big East teams would be in the NCAA tournament.

No way Xavier gets in with a 7-11 conference record. Doubutful that St. Johns makes it after going 8-10 in conference and 19-14 overall record.  And 7-13 wouldn't have boosted the hopes of either MU or Creighton.  Thus, improvement at the bottom means fewer NCAA teams for the league.

We could get 7 teams in, but that would mean the bottom three teams would have to REALLY suck.

[HutchwasClutch]

My bad, I was skimming quickly and just reread it.

Understood, sorry I was a jerk in my response.

[jsglow]

Big East programs - those in good hands, i.e. solid coaches leading their programs, highly likely for sustained success -

The Haves
MU
Villanova
Creighton
Georgetown
Xavier

The Have Nots
Seton Hall  (Willard is a bad coach - their performances in two losses to us this year, just reeked of a poorly coached team, undiscplined, negative body language on many players, couldn't figure out that Carlino couldn't be left open and he killed them in NY)
Providence
DePaul
St. John's (not sold at all on Lavin, he can recruit, but plenty of talent this year and really up and down year for them)


Maybe
Butler - great first year for their new coach, don't know enough about him, or seen them play enough to have a strong opinion yet.  They seem to likely be a Have program however.  But Holtman got the gig under very difficult circumstances, hard for me to believe what they've done this year is a fluke.

Have at it MU Nation

I think my only disagreement would be to put both Providence and Creighton in the maybe category.  I think back to the mid 2000s when we joined the BEast and many thought that it would be an accomplishment if we actually made it to NYC on a consistent basis back when the weakest teams were left home.  We've been a top tier program since our arrival.  Providence is always 'not quite' but I do think Cooley is a decent coach and while Creighton would seem to be able to sustain momentum given their very solid support, they are yet to prove that in the BEast.  Time will tell for both programs.

Totally agree on DePaul, Seton Hall, and St. John's.  By the way, we'd all be better off if St. John's became a credible force in the league year after year.

[HutchwasClutch]

I think my only disagreement would be to put both Providence and Creighton in the maybe category.  I think back to the mid 2000s when we joined the BEast and many thought that it would be an accomplishment if we actually made it to NYC on a consistent basis back when the weakest teams were left home.  We've been a top tier program since our arrival.  Providence is always 'not quite' but I do think Cooley is a decent coach and while Creighton would seem to be able to sustain momentum given their very solid support, they are yet to prove that in the BEast.  Time will tell for both programs.

Totally agree on DePaul, Seton Hall, and St. John's.  By the way, we'd all be better off if St. John's became a credible force in the league year after year.

I think that's an excellent point.  Any league, college or pro I'd contend, need the teams in their biggest markets to be consistently good. It means everything for TV ratings, fan interest and passion, the attention that is brought to the league when the big markets are good, which gets the more casual fans attention, etc.  The NFL may be the exception to that rule given that leagues overwhelming popularity.  I'm sure the NBA for example badly wants franchises like the Knicks, Lakers, and 76ers to be something again.