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Author Topic: MU Recruits in HS tournaments  (Read 47466 times)

HutchwasClutch

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Re: MU Recruits in HS tournaments
« Reply #25 on: March 12, 2015, 09:43:56 PM »
Not due to FT%.

Even offensive efficiency has little to do with FT%. Just doesn't carry a lot of importance. Sorry.

Just for kicks, here are the top 10 FT% teams in the D-I basketball this year:


The top 10 is a mighty small sample size- look at the next 10 on the list -
Albany (23-8, 15-1 conf)
Maryland
Wisconsin
Oregon
Michigan
Bryant (16-15, 12-6)
Northwestern St (19-11, 13-5)
Cornell (losing records)
Pepperdine (18-13, 10-8)

So you keep going and 9 of the next 10 with winning records, with some near or above the 20 win mark.  And the top 20 in FT% totals - 14-5-1 as far as winning vs. losing season.  I stand by my earlier statement - and I bet if you keep going on that list, far more winning seasons than losing seasons.
« Last Edit: March 12, 2015, 09:47:45 PM by HutchwasClutch »

Jay Bee

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Re: MU Recruits in HS tournaments
« Reply #26 on: March 12, 2015, 09:49:52 PM »
Quote from: HutchwasClutch
I agree to an extent, but I'd venture to guess that way more often than not, teams that are solid from the line, have winning seasons.

I'm not sure what you're saying.. what is 'solid from the line' and what is 'way more often than not'? Why keep going down a list when I don't know what I'm looking for?
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Lennys Tap

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Re: MU Recruits in HS tournaments
« Reply #27 on: March 12, 2015, 09:50:09 PM »
I agree to an extent, but I'd venture to guess that way more often than not, teams that are solid from the line, have winning seasons.  The degree to which they win, I'm sure will vary greatly.

We scored 384 points on 590 free throws. If we improved to 67% we score 11 more TOTAL points in 32 (33?) games. 70% would mean 413 points or 29 more. Still less than 1 point a game. We still would have sucked. All of the other metrics that Jay Bee and Sugar talk about are WAY more important than that almost insignificant difference.

HutchwasClutch

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Re: MU Recruits in HS tournaments
« Reply #28 on: March 12, 2015, 09:58:57 PM »
I'm not sure what you're saying.. what is 'solid from the line' and what is 'way more often than not'? Why keep going down a list when I don't know what I'm looking for?

I'd define solid from the line as 72% or better.  

Way more often than not, a discrepancy of 14 winning seasons, 5 losing season, and 1 .500 season of the top 20 FT teams.

I went to the next 20 on the list, so 40 total, and the tally became this - 24 winning seasons, 14 losing seasons, and 2 .500 seasons.  And one of the .500 teams is Portland St, who is actually 16-15, 9-9.  
« Last Edit: March 12, 2015, 10:06:15 PM by HutchwasClutch »

HutchwasClutch

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Re: MU Recruits in HS tournaments
« Reply #29 on: March 12, 2015, 10:05:16 PM »
We scored 384 points on 590 free throws. If we improved to 67% we score 11 more TOTAL points in 32 (33?) games. 70% would mean 413 points or 29 more. Still less than 1 point a game. We still would have sucked. All of the other metrics that Jay Bee and Sugar talk about are WAY more important than that almost insignificant difference.

Problem with that is we have no way of knowing from those stats the number of missed front ends.  Nor how many missed front ends could have been converted into another make. 

Jay Bee

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Re: MU Recruits in HS tournaments
« Reply #30 on: March 12, 2015, 10:06:43 PM »
Problem with that is we have no way of knowing from those stats the number of missed front ends.  Nor how many missed front ends could have been converted into another make. 

Yes we do - and it's all nearly irrelevant.
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HutchwasClutch

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Re: MU Recruits in HS tournaments
« Reply #31 on: March 12, 2015, 10:08:23 PM »
Yes we do - and it's all nearly irrelevant.

Agree to disagree. 

Jay Bee

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Re: MU Recruits in HS tournaments
« Reply #32 on: March 12, 2015, 10:10:17 PM »
Agree to disagree. 

That's cool. Lots of people don't understand math.
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bilsu

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Re: MU Recruits in HS tournaments
« Reply #33 on: March 12, 2015, 10:15:03 PM »
We scored 384 points on 590 free throws. If we improved to 67% we score 11 more TOTAL points in 32 (33?) games. 70% would mean 413 points or 29 more. Still less than 1 point a game. We still would have sucked. All of the other metrics that Jay Bee and Sugar talk about are WAY more important than that almost insignificant difference.
The points are understated, because the higher the percentage you shoot the less front ends of one and ones are being missed. However, on the flip side Fischer missed a free throw yesterday that we rebounded and hit a three on.

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HutchwasClutch

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Re: MU Recruits in HS tournaments
« Reply #35 on: March 12, 2015, 10:19:14 PM »
That's cool. Lots of people don't understand math.

Like you.

Lennys Tap

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HutchwasClutch

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Re: MU Recruits in HS tournaments
« Reply #37 on: March 12, 2015, 10:21:42 PM »

Earl Tatum

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Re: MU Recruits in HS tournaments
« Reply #38 on: March 12, 2015, 10:25:59 PM »
Stevens Point beat Neenah tonight 50-47. Again  Trevor Anderson bailed out Point. Would be a bad get for MU. A point guard.
He just plays the game and has smart basketball sense. Knows where he wants to go with the ball and set people his players up.
Excellent 3 pt shooter. Has had some 30 point games this season. If I was Wojo, I would check him out thoroughly. He is
being recruited by small to mid majors. Could be a steal. A player.

Jay Bee

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Re: MU Recruits in HS tournaments
« Reply #39 on: March 12, 2015, 10:26:30 PM »
Great, explain my above findings then.

Lol.. sounds like you struggle with logic as well.
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Earl Tatum

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Re: MU Recruits in HS tournaments
« Reply #40 on: March 12, 2015, 10:27:21 PM »
Wouldn't be a bad get. My error.

Henry Sugar

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Re: MU Recruits in HS tournaments
« Reply #41 on: March 12, 2015, 10:28:09 PM »
Great, explain my above findings then.

FT% is important for good teams. It's just much, much less important than shooting efficiently, protecting the ball, and rebounding.
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HutchwasClutch

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Re: MU Recruits in HS tournaments
« Reply #42 on: March 12, 2015, 10:29:26 PM »
Lol.. sounds like you struggle with logic as well.

Really? Is that why you threw out your top 10 and stopped at that once I started countering it with additional data?  I clarified statements for you to as you asked, but you never did anything with it.  
« Last Edit: March 12, 2015, 10:31:56 PM by HutchwasClutch »

HutchwasClutch

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Re: MU Recruits in HS tournaments
« Reply #43 on: March 12, 2015, 10:31:29 PM »
FT% is important for good teams. It's just much, much less important than shooting efficiently, protecting the ball, and rebounding.

I know that FT% is certainly not a be all, end all, as some of the teams in the top 10 this year illustrate.  And I haven't argued that it is.  But I don't think it can brushed off as coincidence the correlation between good FT shooting teams and winning seasons.

Henry Sugar

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Re: MU Recruits in HS tournaments
« Reply #44 on: March 12, 2015, 10:39:02 PM »
I know that FT% is certainly not a be all, end all, as some of the teams in the top 10 this year illustrate.  And I haven't argued that it is.  But I don't think it can brushed off as coincidence the correlation between good FT shooting teams and winning seasons.

Yes, there is a correlation. But FT is the least important area to fix. It's like polishing a cannon ball.

MU should focus on so much more first.
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RideMyBuycks

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Re: MU Recruits in HS tournaments
« Reply #45 on: March 12, 2015, 10:41:36 PM »
But how bout those MU recruits, huh? Yeezus guys

Stretchdeltsig

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Re: MU Recruits in HS tournaments
« Reply #46 on: March 13, 2015, 12:05:20 AM »
The real key to winning.g I'd to make threes.  You lose if you make twos.  We need shooters who can make threes consistently.  Mark my words.

brewcity77

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Re: MU Recruits in HS tournaments
« Reply #47 on: March 13, 2015, 08:08:30 AM »
Guess I should have returned to this thread...didn't realize the bomb I dropped with FT%.

While it's easy to dismiss, I do think it matters. While it won't factor much into efficiency, and while it makes sense that eFG% is more important, I don't think it helps when 3 of your 5 most frequent FT shooters are shooting below 60% (Fisch, Juan, Derrick).

It may be hard to quantify, but I definitely feel in the last 5 minutes of a game, when close games are won and lost, free throws are more important than 5%. Yes, making shots matters, but if you are missing the front end of 1-and-1's, that will only reflect 1 point lost when in actuality you are losing the opportunity for 2 points. If you're coming back, earning points while the game clock is stopped is a huge boost (Butler scored 4 from the line in the 13-3 run to send the game to OT).

It might only be 1-2 points per game. If you average our season, a FT% of 72% would improve our scoring by 1.5 ppg. There are a few games where that would have made the difference.

Looking at the top-25 teams in terms of offensive efficiency, only 2 are outside the top-200 in terms of FT%. Yes, you can be a sub-par FT% team and still be efficient, but it's not exactly common. We don't have to be a top-10 FT shooting team to be good, but being sub-300 in that category certainly isn't helping matters.

I may be mistaken, but making three-pointers helps eFG% quite a bit. Most good three point shooters are also good FT shooters. Get better shooting, it will improve our scoring from the line, our completion of 1-and-1's, and our eFG%. I can't see any reason looking to get guys who are better from the line is a bad thing.
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Jay Bee

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Re: MU Recruits in HS tournaments
« Reply #48 on: March 13, 2015, 09:28:00 AM »
Guess I should have returned to this thread...didn't realize the bomb I dropped with FT%.

While it's easy to dismiss, I do think it matters. While it won't factor much into efficiency, and while it makes sense that eFG% is more important, I don't think it helps when 3 of your 5 most frequent FT shooters are shooting below 60% (Fisch, Juan, Derrick).

It may be hard to quantify, but I definitely feel in the last 5 minutes of a game, when close games are won and lost, free throws are more important than 5%. Yes, making shots matters, but if you are missing the front end of 1-and-1's, that will only reflect 1 point lost when in actuality you are losing the opportunity for 2 points. If you're coming back, earning points while the game clock is stopped is a huge boost (Butler scored 4 from the line in the 13-3 run to send the game to OT).

It might only be 1-2 points per game. If you average our season, a FT% of 72% would improve our scoring by 1.5 ppg. There are a few games where that would have made the difference.

Looking at the top-25 teams in terms of offensive efficiency, only 2 are outside the top-200 in terms of FT%. Yes, you can be a sub-par FT% team and still be efficient, but it's not exactly common. We don't have to be a top-10 FT shooting team to be good, but being sub-300 in that category certainly isn't helping matters.

I may be mistaken, but making three-pointers helps eFG% quite a bit. Most good three point shooters are also good FT shooters. Get better shooting, it will improve our scoring from the line, our completion of 1-and-1's, and our eFG%. I can't see any reason looking to get guys who are better from the line is a bad thing.

Cripes. You're throwing out a bunch of different things. Back to what you originally claimed: "We have to be better than 65% if we want to get back to winning ways."

That is FALSE. Absolutely false. Period.

"I can't see any reason looking to get guys who are better from the line is a bad thing"... WHAT? Where does this come from? smh.

What would have been reasonable to original say is, "I'd like to see us shoot better than 65% from the line in the future." OK, great. Me too! But that's not what was said.

...and there are always plenty of exceptions to most any rule.. so words are important.

Remember last year's team Louisville? Their offensive efficiency was #5 in the nation (unadjusted). FIFTH BEST in D-I basketball. They shot 66.1% from the line, worse than ~85% of all teams.

For individual players, yes, there is often relevant correlation b/w 3FG% and FT%. That's one of the several reasons why HutchisClutch's logic was flawed. At any rate, there are exceptions here as well.. Wojo coached a guy.. DeMarcus Nelson.. 4-year guy with hundreds of 3FGA's and FTA's.. 37.3% career from deep...58.6% from the line...

There are at least 6 top 25 OE teams that aren't in the top 150 FT% teams in the nation.
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brewcity77

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Re: MU Recruits in HS tournaments
« Reply #49 on: March 13, 2015, 10:03:45 AM »
In terms of overall stats, I understand why FTs (least valuable shot, difference between 64% and 72% seems minimal over a season) don't seem like a big deal. I understand why statistically they won't have as much impact.

But I do feel the extra 1.5 ppg is worth having a good FT shooting team over a poor one and I feel that in the last 5 minutes of a game, missing FTs and especially the front ends of 1-and-1s are often the difference between winning and losing a game.

You don't care about FTs. Fine. I like seeing that Anim makes his. It is what it is.
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