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Author Topic: Regression  (Read 13858 times)

Warrior Code

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Re: Regression
« Reply #25 on: March 04, 2015, 11:13:07 AM »
Two arguments I don't buy.

1) exhaustion.  For two reasons.  One - most teams in conference are only going 8 deep - granted its a better 8 (and we've had a few games at 6 or 7) but that doesn't explain why we get "exhausted" and they don't.  Two - these are 19 and 20 year olds in peak physical conditioning.  Running the floor for 35 minutes twice a week is hardly a strain, given that most of them are engaged in 2+ hours of exercise per day year round.

2) it's our "second time through the conference line up" - it's everyone else's second time through the line up too!  If they're scouting us better than we should be able to scout them better!  If they markedly improve their game plan vs. Us but we don't vs. Them then I think that's a problem...


1) You mean these "athletes" get tired in barely more time than it takes you to watch Everybody Loves Raymond?

2) Scouting and executing are quite different. A team that can say "they're going to a zone, put in (three-point specialist)" or "their guy played well last time, let's put (taller bench player) on him" or "our big guy is in foul trouble, put in (back up big guy)" is always going to have an advantage over the team that has to play the same guys a ton of minutes because there is no other choice.
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Dawson Rental

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Re: Regression
« Reply #26 on: March 04, 2015, 11:13:16 AM »
Fair, but outcomes arguably so much worse (even than first 4-5 games of conference, even considering a more difficult stretch of schedule.

But since EVERYONE is so optimistic I'll just drink the Koop aid and join the herd.  :)

Playing 8 players in conference is a different animal when a program has 11 or 12 guys to practice with compared to playing with 6 to 8 and then having only that same number at practice. That leads to the difficulties of trying to improve while practicing against walk-ons and team managers.

Welcome to the herd.  IMHO, you got several very thoughtful responses to draw you in.  Just remember this is the herd that you joined:



not this.

You actually have a degree from Marquette?

Quote from: muguru
No...and after reading many many psosts from people on this board that do...I have to say I'm MUCH better off, if this is the type of "intelligence" a degree from MU gets you. It sure is on full display I will say that.

1SE

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Re: Regression
« Reply #27 on: March 04, 2015, 11:17:24 AM »
1) You mean these "athletes" get tired in barely more time than it takes you to watch Everybody Loves Raymond?

2) Scouting and executing are quite different. A team that can say "they're going to a zone, put in (three-point specialist)" or "their guy played well last time, let's put (taller bench player) on him" or "our big guy is in foul trouble, put in (back up big guy)" is always going to have an advantage over the team that has to play the same guys a ton of minutes because there is no other choice.


I kind of get a kick out of the ad hominems on an anonymous message board...
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Juan Anderson's Mixtape

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Re: Regression
« Reply #28 on: March 04, 2015, 11:41:03 AM »
Two arguments I don't buy.

1) exhaustion.  For two reasons.  One - most teams in conference are only going 8 deep - granted its a better 8 (and we've had a few games at 6 or 7) but that doesn't explain why we get "exhausted" and they don't.  Two - these are 19 and 20 year olds in peak physical conditioning.  Running the floor for 35 minutes twice a week is hardly a strain, given that most of them are engaged in 2+ hours of exercise per day year round.

2) it's our "second time through the conference line up" - it's everyone else's second time through the line up too!  If they're scouting us better than we should be able to scout them better!  If they markedly improve their game plan vs. Us but we don't vs. Them then I think that's a problem...

W.r.t to player progression yes, Duane is going to be a stud.  JjJ I just don't see - I think he'd have a hard time fitting into an 8 man rotation next year on a tourney team - perfect example of a guy with the physical gifts/skill set to succeed in HS but not DI.

Listen, I hope I'm wrong and next year's class is everything we hope and yadda yadda yadda.  I love the "idea" of Wojo. I also realize there's a limited amount of blame to put on Wojo given the hand he was dealt this year.  But I also know this season has turned out far worse than MOST people on this board expected in October or even at the end of December - and Ws and Ls are ultimately all that count.  We should have at least sniffed the NIT this year.  We can put on the rose colored glasses all we want but I think this season has to tighten the margin of error for Wojo going forward.

On Exhaustion: MU started the year with 11 scholarship players that could practice...two transferred so MU has been at 9 since semester break...then injuries dropped us to 8, then 7.  Literally no one can get a breather during practice.  That wears on players as the season goes on.  Having 11,12 or 13 practice players helps keep players fresher.  And there's a big difference between condition levels of FR and SO & JR and SR.  Half our game day roster is FR and SO, 2 SR got hurt, and our lone JR had a nagging injury that essentially wasted his SO year.  Like I said, strength and conditioning is very important for all returning players.

On Expectations: Sniffing the NIT was based on recruiting rankings and hoping guys like Burton, JJJ, and Dawson took big leaps.  Didn't happen and we are where we are.  The conference is also a lot stronger this year (2nd in conf RPI, up from 4th last year) with the middle particularly stronger.  Last year 3-7 place were ranked 41, 57, 64, 77, and 89 in RPI.  This year 3-7 their RPI's are 23, 24, 37, 43 and 73.  This year's 6th place team is as strong last years 3rd place team.  I think people expected the BE to be better this year, but not that much better.

On Results:  Our record stinks.  Could be better but it is what it is.  Rather than debating whether MU overachieved or underachieved this year I'm just accepting that we hit rock bottom in a rebuilding year. I'm looking for and expecting improvement next year and the year after.  If we're still in last place in year 3 I'd be very worried and I'd be very disappointed if we're not dancing.  Until then I'm going to exercise a little patience and look for an upward trajectory of progress.  But you nervous nellies go ahead and do your thing.


Warrior Code

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Re: Regression
« Reply #29 on: March 04, 2015, 11:57:13 AM »
I kind of get a kick out of the ad hominems on an anonymous message board...

In the time it takes *me to watch Everybody Loves Raymond. Better?
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warriorfan 14

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Re: Regression
« Reply #30 on: March 04, 2015, 02:30:24 PM »
duane is the only guy i can say definitely improved. maybe some minor improvements in play of some of the other players but nothing to write home about. the big east is just really good this year, and we are really bad

MU82

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Re: Regression
« Reply #31 on: March 04, 2015, 02:44:08 PM »
I hate using injuries as an excuse, but sometimes injuries are more facts than excuses.

We started the second semester with 8 players. Losing 1-2 knocked us down to 7 or 6. And it wasn't just the numbers. Juan was our "energy" guy, our leading rebounder, a leader, a good defender, a guy who could occasionally knock down a 3. Carlino was, far and away, our best offensive player, the one outside shooter we had that forced other coaches to game-plan. Losing either one when there is no viable backup and only 8 on the roster would have hurt, but losing both was devastating. And given how he is dragging himself up and down the court, it's obvious Juan is still out, basically.

Add in the general wear and tear over the course of a season for a shorthanded, undersized squad ... a couple of guys not playing up to their hype ... a 30+ minute PG who would be playing 10-15 minutes on a good team ... a first-year coach who is still learning ... and, well, we are who Denny Green thought we would be.
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Class71

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Re: Regression
« Reply #32 on: March 04, 2015, 05:36:38 PM »
Depth.   We don't have any.
Size.  We don't have any
Experienced scoring.   We don't have any beyond Carlino.  (who missed 4 games)
The Big East.   Is very good this year.  
First year coach.   That we have.  

Would just add a few more basics.

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jesmu84

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Re: Regression
« Reply #33 on: March 04, 2015, 06:17:23 PM »
Two arguments I don't buy.

1) exhaustion.  For two reasons.  One - most teams in conference are only going 8 deep - granted its a better 8 (and we've had a few games at 6 or 7) but that doesn't explain why we get "exhausted" and they don't.  Two - these are 19 and 20 year olds in peak physical conditioning.  Running the floor for 35 minutes twice a week is hardly a strain, given that most of them are engaged in 2+ hours of exercise per day year round.

2) it's our "second time through the conference line up" - it's everyone else's second time through the line up too!  If they're scouting us better than we should be able to scout them better!  If they markedly improve their game plan vs. Us but we don't vs. Them then I think that's a problem...

W.r.t to player progression yes, Duane is going to be a stud.  JjJ I just don't see - I think he'd have a hard time fitting into an 8 man rotation next year on a tourney team - perfect example of a guy with the physical gifts/skill set to succeed in HS but not DI.

Listen, I hope I'm wrong and next year's class is everything we hope and yadda yadda yadda.  I love the "idea" of Wojo. I also realize there's a limited amount of blame to put on Wojo given the hand he was dealt this year.  But I also know this season has turned out far worse than MOST people on this board expected in October or even at the end of December - and Ws and Ls are ultimately all that count.  We should have at least sniffed the NIT this year.  We can put on the rose colored glasses all we want but I think this season has to tighten the margin of error for Wojo going forward.

1. I don't think this guy is a troll, but he might be. Before this thread his only other posts were in the thread "Ners is right..." about how useless Derrick is.

2. If you really aren't a troll, and you really believe, as I bolded above, that we'll be a tourney team next season, why did you even start this thread? Because those two outlooks don't go together. Hence why I don't think you're a troll, but won't be surprised if you are

77ncaachamps

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Re: Regression
« Reply #34 on: March 04, 2015, 06:21:20 PM »
The season is not over but I'm already looking forward to 2015-16.

It will still be a year of growth (this year's starters are probably not even locks for next year - well, maybe Duane if he's injury-free). But it will be more exciting to watch the youth movement and progression under Coach Wojo with his boys.

Back to the regression headline: it simply isn't. When you are already strapped with what you have, you can't claim regression.
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Goose

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Re: Regression
« Reply #35 on: March 04, 2015, 06:22:14 PM »
Chalk up to a lost season. Same discussion a year from and we are in trouble.

wadesworld

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Re: Regression
« Reply #36 on: March 04, 2015, 06:28:32 PM »
The season is not over but I'm already looking forward to 2015-16.

It will still be a year of growth (this year's starters are probably not even locks for next year - well, maybe Duane if he's injury-free). But it will be more exciting to watch the youth movement and progression under Coach Wojo with his boys.

Back to the regression headline: it simply isn't. When you are already strapped with what you have, you can't claim regression.

I'll go ahead and say the only 2 non-senior starters on this team are locks for next season's starting lineup as well.
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Stretchdeltsig

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Re: Regression
« Reply #37 on: March 04, 2015, 09:18:22 PM »
This team has regressed.  They played much better in large December than now.  Point in case, Fisher.

Oregon Warrior

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Re: Regression
« Reply #38 on: March 04, 2015, 11:42:09 PM »
What makes all of you feel like next year is going to be better? At the moment, we don't have a point guard. We have one decent shooter (Duane Wilson) in the current group and maybe one in next year's class (Cheatham) but he'll be a freshman. Ellenson is a talent but also a freshman. There is a very real possibility that we will have a terrible year next year. Couple the lack of talent issue with a rookie coach that has a lot of question marks of his own and I don't see it getting better for a while. I try to be an optimist but this season has been really hard to watch and I don't think it would have been this bad with a more experienced coach. I hope you guys are right about Wojo but how are you going to feel about him if we have a similar season next year.

MUfan12

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Re: Regression
« Reply #39 on: March 04, 2015, 11:53:10 PM »
This team has regressed.  They played much better in large December than now.  Point in case, Fisher.

Luke faced Arizona State, North Dakota, Alabama A&M, and Morgan State in December before league play started. A little different level of competition now.

Herman Cain

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Re: Regression
« Reply #40 on: March 05, 2015, 12:00:21 AM »
Losing Deonte and Dawson to a mid season transfer was a big factor.  The Big East is a physical conference and Deonte was a big body who could get things done inside.  Dawson may not have been playing much at the time but at least he was a Division 1 capable player and that helps in practice and I have no doubt he could have stepped in and done the job if asked . I think with those two we would have been a more competitive team. My instinct is that a few of the close games would have gone in our favor. So yes we regressed over the course of the year. 

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WellsstreetWanderer

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Re: Regression
« Reply #41 on: March 05, 2015, 12:10:38 AM »
We would have been in a heck of lot of the games if we could make free throws. We must average over 10  missed free throws per game.

79Warrior

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Re: Regression
« Reply #42 on: March 05, 2015, 12:11:43 AM »
Chalk up to a lost season. Same discussion a year from and we are in trouble.

This is a fact.

willie warrior

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Re: Regression
« Reply #43 on: March 05, 2015, 06:33:57 AM »
Chalk up to a lost season. Same discussion a year from and we are in trouble.
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GGGG

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Re: Regression
« Reply #44 on: March 05, 2015, 07:12:03 AM »
Goose: Sorry, we are in trouble already. It is obvious.


OK, so what do you do?  Fire the coach and start over?

Or do you see what happens next year with a highly rated recruiting class coming in.  That is why I would compare this team, not to the Dukiet era, but to the early O'Neill era.  Like the 1990-91 team that went 11-18 and lost in the first round of the MCC tournament.

With a big recruiting class coming in, that Marquette team was ranked just two years later and back in the S16 the year after that.


 

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