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Author Topic: Regression  (Read 13859 times)

1SE

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Regression
« on: March 04, 2015, 06:18:10 AM »
How concerned should we be?  Following Omaha we were on a clear upward progression.  Nice win with UT, Luke comes in and we beat ASU, beat Providence, hang tough at Georgetown and Xavier.  At this point 8-10 in conference still looks reasonable, 9-9 seems possible.  Then the dumpster fire losing 11 of 12.  And worse, other than Butler, in most of our losses we weren't even competitive.  What happened?  Out-coached?  Player regression? Giving up on a lost season?  None of these sounds good and none bodes well for the future.  Someone give me some sunshine other than "help is on they way" (Help was on the way with Luke too, and it looked great for 2 games, and now....)
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1SE

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Re: Regression
« Reply #1 on: March 04, 2015, 06:24:43 AM »
The competitiveness one is one that really kills - can one of the stat-heads calculate how many minutes we've had the lead in the last 12 games?
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brewcity77

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Re: Regression
« Reply #2 on: March 04, 2015, 06:25:05 AM »
We have 8 guys (sometimes 6-7) that are exhausted after a long season. And we have 4 guys that probably aren't good enough to warrant the minutes they get, but as we have no options still they must play.

This season is the season of no expectations and nothing should be read into it. They still compete. They haven't given up or lacked effort, they just aren't as good or as deep as they need to be.
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1SE

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Re: Regression
« Reply #3 on: March 04, 2015, 06:28:51 AM »
Okay - certainly injuries hurt in the losing streak - but and we're otherwise short handed - but we were just as short handed at the start of the season.  I'd be less concerned if we were 6-22, losing to every decent opponent we played - then we could chalk it up on a bad team, c'est la vie - but this team has gotten WORSE - that's concerning to me.
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THRILLHO

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Re: Regression
« Reply #4 on: March 04, 2015, 06:41:23 AM »
I think there are 3 good reasons why we appear to be getting worse, though I should say I still see enough flashes of improvement at the individual level to not be too concerned:
1) Novelty of defense wearing off -- Once teams had a scout on our zone it steadily decreased in effectiveness.
2) Novelty of Luke Fischer wearing off -- Luke can't surprise people anymore and teams can game plan for him.
3) Late season injuries -- Playing with 6 or 7 guys, you lose so many options and guys just get tired.

I think our team overachieved a bit early on with the zone and then Luke's return giving us a bit of an informational edge, but late in the season everyone has read the book on us and it becomes talent against talent, and this team won't win many of those battles.

brewcity77

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Re: Regression
« Reply #5 on: March 04, 2015, 06:52:47 AM »
Non-conference is a different animal. First, teams like Georgia Tech, Tennessee, and Arizona State hadn't scouted us as much. And let's be honest, those teams we beat haven't been very good either. GT is 3-13 in conference play, Tennessee is 6-10, and ASU is 7-9. Those teams we beat simply aren't great teams.

This league is very good. We are playing tournament teams almost every night. We have lost 11/12 games. 9 of those 11 losses came to teams that will be in the tournament. We aren't worse, the competition is better and they're seeing us for the second time so these good teams know what we want to do.

You say the team hasn't improved. I disagree. Jajuan has improved immensely. Duane is continuing to perform and improving his performance despite tougher competition. But when we lose our leading scorer, when our best rebounder is hobbled, this is the result.
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PuertoRicanNightmare

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Re: Regression
« Reply #6 on: March 04, 2015, 07:13:22 AM »
I think there are 3 good reasons why we appear to be getting worse, though I should say I still see enough flashes of improvement at the individual level to not be too concerned:
1) Novelty of defense wearing off -- Once teams had a scout on our zone it steadily decreased in effectiveness.
2) Novelty of Luke Fischer wearing off -- Luke can't surprise people anymore and teams can game plan for him.
3) Late season injuries -- Playing with 6 or 7 guys, you lose so many options and guys just get tired.

I think our team overachieved a bit early on with the zone and then Luke's return giving us a bit of an informational edge, but late in the season everyone has read the book on us and it becomes talent against talent, and this team won't win many of those battles.

I think this is a great post. Agree with everything.

MU1980

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Re: Regression
« Reply #7 on: March 04, 2015, 07:13:56 AM »
How concerned should we be?  Following Omaha we were on a clear upward progression.  Nice win with UT, Luke comes in and we beat ASU, beat Providence, hang tough at Georgetown and Xavier.  At this point 8-10 in conference still looks reasonable, 9-9 seems possible.  Then the dumpster fire losing 11 of 12.  And worse, other than Butler, in most of our losses we weren't even competitive.  What happened?  Out-coached?  Player regression? Giving up on a lost season?  None of these sounds good and none bodes well for the future.  Someone give me some sunshine other than "help is on they way" (Help was on the way with Luke too, and it looked great for 2 games, and now....)

Do you really watch any of our games or follow college basketball at all.  I have watched every game this season and see all the reasons everyone has mentioned why they might not appear to be getting any better.  I think this entire season has been a huge learning experience for the younger players and for the coaching staff and even though we are losing, individually each player is getting better prepared for next year, when we will have more talent and more importantly, more depth, to be able to play the kind of basketball that this coaching staff believes in.  

Juan Anderson's Mixtape

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Re: Regression
« Reply #8 on: March 04, 2015, 07:44:43 AM »
When Carlino and Anderson went down, MU was left with 1 SR, 1 JR, 2 Soph, 1 RS Frosh and 1 true Frosh.  So not only is the team short on bodies, it's short on experience and physical maturity.  The team has been ground down to a nub.  Strength and condition this offseason are just as important as skill development.

Plus look at the non-conf wins of note.  GA Tech- Carlino had 38, Tenn- Duane had 30, ASU- JJJ had 22 and Luke had 19-9-5.  Each of those wins had a player or two having their best games of the season.  Change those career nights to off nights and we lose every game.  Even an average Carlino against GA Tech is a loss.

The bright spots are that we have a RS Frosh in Duane that is an explosive scorer and Luke is a legit scorer and defender at C.  But both can be streaky.  Both need to get stronger.  Duane needs to finish better at the rim and regain his FT stroke.  Luke needs to rebound much better and cut down on turnovers.  It will take time but it's exciting to think how much better they could be in 2 years.  Then add HE: A McD-AA with a unique combo of size and skill.  Still a few pieces away but Wojo has 3 spots to use and who he lands will be key. If Wojo can find a PG this spring and we get a big leap from either JJ or Sandy, or Cheatham shows out right away, we could see a big leap from the team. 

bilsu

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Re: Regression
« Reply #9 on: March 04, 2015, 08:18:46 AM »
It also has a freshmen coach (first year) and I think head coaching experience also matters.

tower912

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Re: Regression
« Reply #10 on: March 04, 2015, 08:20:13 AM »
Depth.   We don't have any.
Size.  We don't have any
Experienced scoring.   We don't have any beyond Carlino.  (who missed 4 games)
The Big East.   Is very good this year.  
First year coach.   That we have.  
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MerrittsMustache

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Re: Regression
« Reply #11 on: March 04, 2015, 08:24:25 AM »
The competitiveness one is one that really kills - can one of the stat-heads calculate how many minutes we've had the lead in the last 12 games?

Not competitive?

Lost by 6 on the road to a tourney team
Lost by 4 and 3 on the road to potential tourney teams
Lost in OT to a tourney team (literally an inch away from winning in regulation)
Lost in OT to a tourney team

MU had a very realistic chance at splitting those 12 games and honestly, should have won at least 3-4 of them. More recently, the team's only consistent offensive threat missed 4 games, they played with 6 guys against a possible 1-seed, and the already short-handed, undersized team has been getting hobbled, limited minutes from their top rebounder. It hasn't been pretty but it is what it is.


GOO

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Re: Regression
« Reply #12 on: March 04, 2015, 08:56:58 AM »
Not competitive?

Lost by 6 on the road to a tourney team
Lost by 4 and 3 on the road to potential tourney teams
Lost in OT to a tourney team (literally an inch away from winning in regulation)
Lost in OT to a tourney team

MU had a very realistic chance at splitting those 12 games and honestly, should have won at least 3-4 of them. More recently, the team's only consistent offensive threat missed 4 games, they played with 6 guys against a possible 1-seed, and the already short-handed, undersized team has been getting hobbled, limited minutes from their top rebounder. It hasn't been pretty but it is what it is.


Exactly, sometimes reality and perception are two distinct things.   The competition got harder.  Against ASU, they didn't even know who Luke was and didn't know how to play him.
If we finish out competitive in these next couple of games, kudos to the players and coaches. 

MUCrew

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Re: Regression
« Reply #13 on: March 04, 2015, 08:59:00 AM »
We have 8 guys (sometimes 6-7) that are exhausted after a long season. And we have 4 guys that probably aren't good enough to warrant the minutes they get, but as we have no options still they must play.

This season is the season of no expectations and nothing should be read into it. They still compete. They haven't given up or lacked effort, they just aren't as good or as deep as they need to be.

This...so much.  People forget this year's situation.  MU is very inexperienced and short-handed.  Majority of the team is underclassmen. You lose 3 starters from last year plus Mayo and have 1 preseason transfer and 2 mid-season transfers.  That's a lot of turnover for one year.  Throw in a new coach with a new staff and system and you just have to expect this year as a transition year.  

Think about how 6-8 scholarship players can practice everyday.  What do you think it's like?  Not questioning hard work and effort, but moreso the structure.  Difficult to go 5 on 5 for drills and sets.  It's not easy.  5 scholarship players v 3 schollies and 2 walk-ons just to get 5 on 5 drills going.  And that's at full strength.  

I know I may be speaking based off of tempered expectations, but I'm proud of this years team for what they have to endure.

dgies9156

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Re: Regression
« Reply #14 on: March 04, 2015, 08:59:08 AM »
OK, my take is this:

1) For ASU particularly, they scouted a team that did not show up. They didn't see Luke and didn't prepare for him. Not suprisingly, the ASU game was one of Luke's best. I agree with the poster about Tennessee (no fruit sucks like a Big Orange) and Georgia Tech. Neither school will be a participant in the NCAA Tournament.

2) We probably lost about a third of our games in the last five minutes. That's clearly where exhaustion shows up. Moves that occurred early in the game don't happen late because we just are worn out. You see it in the guys, period. There is a reason why the Hillbilly wanted a 10 deep team.

3) I'm pretty confident we've lost at least some of our games because of miserable free throw shooting. Part of our miserable showing on the free throw line this year has been the result of very tired, hard-working players. While no one can say for sure, if we had a little more rotational depth (yeah, I know, what's a rotation this year?), we probably would have hit a much higher percentage of our free throws and pulled out at least a few more games.

4) Winning is contageous. So is losing. Teams pull out of downward spirals with senior leadership on and off the court. This year's seniors, except for Matt Carlino, aren't the go-to-guys on the court who can get the points when you need it. Juan started out well offensively but has been eaten alive by a very good Big East this year.

In retrospect, the UNO loss back in December was Santa's lump of coal in our stockings. That one was a bad, bad loss that, while before Luke showed up, was an indication we had problems. It is as if Santa is saying, you have been bad boys and girls this year. And it was before Deonte and JohnnyD left us. I understand losing to Ohio State in Columbus or even Michigan State, but not UNO. It was bad and a foreboding of what was coming.

There are two takeaways from this year. First, it can't get any worse and with some "yet-to-be-done" recruiting, could get much much better. Second, I'l promise you the returning team is angry. At themselves. At the circumstances. At losing. I'm confident with the motivation from this yera, there will be some scores to settle next year. Bet on it!

« Last Edit: March 04, 2015, 09:01:03 AM by dgies9156 »

JTBMU7

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Re: Regression
« Reply #15 on: March 04, 2015, 09:20:18 AM »
i had always assumed we would have a much tougher time the second time through the conference line up. Wojo talked alot about having a "curveball". when you only play a team once that might work to squeak out a win, but when you play round robin you get exposed if that secondary pitch isnt effective outside of throwing a team off for one game.

MUMonster03

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Re: Regression
« Reply #16 on: March 04, 2015, 09:47:00 AM »
While the scores may have become a little more lopsided if you have continued to watch you can see subtle improvements.

The biggest thing this team has going for it and what keeps me excited for next year is their heart. They could have easily mailed it in at this point. Yet down 20 we fight back to within 5 against Providence. We play a potential #1 seed in the tournament close with only 6 men. We split with Creighton, who like us, is in a rebuilding year. Have we got blown out a few times? Yes we have but I see those losses as te other team forces a few turnovers and hits some shots while we miss and then we start pressing trying to get back into it. So you could say our decision making may not be the best when we get down but this teams effort level as the season has progressed has not.

As mentioned by others, a lot of the things you can do in season to mask deficiencies were figured out by our opponents as they had more tape. The areas that we need to improve on still are the ones that you need the off-season to work on. In season practice time is very limited by NCAA rules.

Ardmore Mug

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Re: Regression
« Reply #17 on: March 04, 2015, 09:55:57 AM »
Dont 'cha just love the IGNORE feature???  sheesh...  how many more threads like this r there going to be??  :-\    Esp coming from those with less than 10 posts... go home TROLL ! ! ! 8-)

JakeBarnes

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Re: Regression
« Reply #18 on: March 04, 2015, 10:03:35 AM »
I think there are 3 good reasons why we appear to be getting worse, though I should say I still see enough flashes of improvement at the individual level to not be too concerned:
1) Novelty of defense wearing off -- Once teams had a scout on our zone it steadily decreased in effectiveness.
2) Novelty of Luke Fischer wearing off -- Luke can't surprise people anymore and teams can game plan for him.
3) Late season injuries -- Playing with 6 or 7 guys, you lose so many options and guys just get tired.

I think our team overachieved a bit early on with the zone and then Luke's return giving us a bit of an informational edge, but late in the season everyone has read the book on us and it becomes talent against talent, and this team won't win many of those battles.


I'd add

4) Discouragement-- The long season, losing close games where you played your heart out and doing so with only a few players. There's only so many times you can take one on the chin until you can't really get up. I'm not saying they are quitting. Far from it. But it's tough to keep a positive spin on it when you're getting hit hard every game. Let's hope we see some positive building blocks from the next few games that help confidence for next year.
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4everwarriors

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Re: Regression
« Reply #19 on: March 04, 2015, 10:18:01 AM »
Next season will be addition by subtraction, ai na?

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wadesworld

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Re: Regression
« Reply #20 on: March 04, 2015, 10:21:06 AM »
**yawn**

Didn't even take the time to read this thread.  Not worth dignifying it.

If people really think we should be concerned about Wojo based on this season's results they really don't have the first clue as to how things work in college basketball.
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1SE

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Re: Regression
« Reply #21 on: March 04, 2015, 10:33:52 AM »
Two arguments I don't buy.

1) exhaustion.  For two reasons.  One - most teams in conference are only going 8 deep - granted its a better 8 (and we've had a few games at 6 or 7) but that doesn't explain why we get "exhausted" and they don't.  Two - these are 19 and 20 year olds in peak physical conditioning.  Running the floor for 35 minutes twice a week is hardly a strain, given that most of them are engaged in 2+ hours of exercise per day year round.

2) it's our "second time through the conference line up" - it's everyone else's second time through the line up too!  If they're scouting us better than we should be able to scout them better!  If they markedly improve their game plan vs. Us but we don't vs. Them then I think that's a problem...

W.r.t to player progression yes, Duane is going to be a stud.  JjJ I just don't see - I think he'd have a hard time fitting into an 8 man rotation next year on a tourney team - perfect example of a guy with the physical gifts/skill set to succeed in HS but not DI.

Listen, I hope I'm wrong and next year's class is everything we hope and yadda yadda yadda.  I love the "idea" of Wojo. I also realize there's a limited amount of blame to put on Wojo given the hand he was dealt this year.  But I also know this season has turned out far worse than MOST people on this board expected in October or even at the end of December - and Ws and Ls are ultimately all that count.  We should have at least sniffed the NIT this year.  We can put on the rose colored glasses all we want but I think this season has to tighten the margin of error for Wojo going forward.
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TAMU, Knower of Ball

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Re: Regression
« Reply #22 on: March 04, 2015, 10:41:34 AM »
Honestly, the only players I have seen who have gotten worse are Derrick and Juan. I think both of their numbers went down severely as conference play wore on. Everyone else has shown improvement. That gives me encouragement for next year.
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1SE

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Re: Regression
« Reply #23 on: March 04, 2015, 10:49:10 AM »
Honestly, the only players I have seen who have gotten worse are Derrick and Juan. I think both of their numbers went down severely as conference play wore on. Everyone else has shown improvement. That gives me encouragement for next year.

Fair, but outcomes arguably so much worse (even than first 4-5 games of conference, even considering a more difficult stretch of schedule.

But since EVERYONE is so optimistic I'll just drink the Koop aid and join the herd.  :)
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tower912

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Re: Regression
« Reply #24 on: March 04, 2015, 11:02:00 AM »
Fair, but outcomes arguably so much worse (even than first 4-5 games of conference, even considering a more difficult stretch of schedule.

But since EVERYONE is so optimistic I'll just drink the Koop aid and join the herd.  :)

Other teams have improved.   MU has gotten injured and worn out.   That is one of the hazards of only playing 8.   I don't know how Wojo is going to do long term.    Only knowing the Duke way gives me pause.  However, this season, with the cards he was dealt, I have very few complaints.   This is what I expected.
Luke 6:45   ...A good man produces goodness from the good in his heart; an evil man produces evil out of his store of evil.   Each man speaks from his heart's abundance...

It is better to be fearless and cheerful than cheerless and fearful.