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Author Topic: [Cracked Sidewalks]Carlino Top 100; Derrick vs. Paige/Harrison/Staten  (Read 17309 times)

brewcity77

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks]Carlino Top 100; Derrick vs. Paige/Harrison/Staten
« Reply #25 on: January 27, 2015, 11:40:45 AM »
I think speaks to Wojo being a good game coach. Sits Derrick when he's inefficient. That didn't seem to happen last year, but maybe my memory is slanted.

So he plays less when he's ineffective and more when he's effective, and somehow that's a bad thing?
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TAMU, Knower of Ball

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks]Carlino Top 100; Derrick vs. Paige/Harrison/Staten
« Reply #26 on: January 27, 2015, 12:37:47 PM »
That's a fine way to look at it - either way - we aren't under talented relative to the league.  Nor should we expect to finish anything less than 9-9 given the level of our talent.

As for Florida - you make a good case.  A few things I'd say:  Billy Donovan has lots of skins on the wall - to call into question his coaching is quite a bit different than to call into question Wojo's in his first year.  

Strength of schedule.  Pomeroy ranks Florida 37, despite their 10-9 record that matches Marquette. We are 92.  Next.

 

Again, you misunderstand value add. You can't look at this stat and say "Derrick Wilson is ranked above Javaughn Pinkston he must be the better player." All it say is that Derrick is more valuable to his team. If you put Derrick Wilson on Villanova, he'd probably have a ranking in the 90s. This is really only useful when comparing within a single team.

I don't bring up the Florida example because you question Wojo. Question away, he's a first year coach. I brought up the Florida example because of your claim that 7 top 100 players = a tournament team. It is true that Florida has a greater strength of schedule. They also only have one win over a top 100 opponent (#66 Yale). But Florida has 8 top 100 players, 4 players who were ranked higher than our top player, 2 consensus top 10 players, 6 players taller than Steve Taylor, a true PG who was ranked #7 in the country as a recruit, a well established HOF coach, no transfers/injuries/off the court issues, and 13 filled scholarships. Don't you think that makes up for the difference in Strength of Schedule?

When making expectations for a team, you shouldn't look at how many top 100 players they have (unless they are freshmen). You look at what they are losing, what they are gaining, and what kind of production they got from the players who remain from the previous season. The expectations for this year's team should have been to miss the NIT based on the standard. Has Wojo been perfect? Nope. Made a lot of mistakes. Is the team over-performing despite those mistakes? Yep.
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TAMU, Knower of Ball

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks]Carlino Top 100; Derrick vs. Paige/Harrison/Staten
« Reply #27 on: January 27, 2015, 12:43:32 PM »
You like the players on this list?
At least 24% of possessions used
Rank   Player   Team   Ht   Wt   Yr   ORtg
1   Sterling Gibbs   Seton Hall   6-2   185   Jr            118.9 (24.4)
2   LaDontae Henton   Providence   6-6   215   Sr            113.6 (26.9)
3   Joshua Smith   Georgetown   6-10   350   Sr   113.2 (28.8)
4   D'Angelo Harrison   St. John's   6-4   202   Sr   112.1 (25.4)
5   Myke Henry   DePaul   6-6   228   Jr   104.3 (25.0)
6   Kris Dunn   Providence   6-3   205   So           101.4 (30.3)
7   Roosevelt Jones   Butler   6-4   227   Jr   100.2 (25.5)
8   Rysheed Jordan   St. John's   6-4   193   So   92.0 (28.9)
9   Devin Brooks   Creighton   6-2   175   Sr   90.4 (26.1)
10   JaJuan Johnson   Marquette   6-5   185   So   89.4 (25.3)

So, if you want to get all caught up in O-Rating - Kris Dunn is a worse player than Derrick Wilson.  So is Roosevelt Jones.  Where do those guys rank on Bama's list of Big EAst players?

JJJ is an AGGRESSIVE player - I look at that Top 10 list in the Big East above and see a lot of players I like.  Yes JJJ needs to improve, yet like I said all of last year you have to give a guy consistent playing time and run to know what he really "is."  JJJ has gotten 7 games this season of 25+ minutes.  His O-Rating in those games 98.  Is it great?  No, but it is much better than 89.

Meanwhile Derrick Wilson has ONLY 3 games of less than 25 minutes.  His average O Rating in those games??  67

But I know, all the guys here who have never played the game on much of any level will ridicule my statement that you need long runs of playing time to reflect what you truly are as a player.  To draw conclusions off of a guy playing scattered DNP's, to 10 minutes to 17 minutes, comprised of 3 or 4 different stints of action - you just can't draw any relevant conclusions from that type of playing time.

Usage does not equal good. All usage means is that the players shoots and turns the ball over a ton.

High Usage + High Efficiency = All Star
Low Usage + High Efficiency = Solid role player
Low Usage + Low Efficiency = Bench Player
High Usage + Low Efficiency = Disaster

Guess which one JjJ is at this point?
TAMU

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NersEllenson

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks]Carlino Top 100; Derrick vs. Paige/Harrison/Staten
« Reply #28 on: January 27, 2015, 12:48:13 PM »
I don't have any stats, but my eyes tell me that Wojo is willing to ride the hot hand inside of any given game.

We've seen Sandy Cohen play well, and get a bunch of minutes. Steve Taylor was good against SJU, so he got a lot of minutes. etc. etc.

So, it's likely that all of MU's players have their worst offensive numbers when they play the least amount of minutes. When they have good nights, Wojo gives them more minutes.

LOL - Except Duane Wilson at crunch and winning time against Georgetown.   ::)
"I'm not sure Cadougan would fix the problems on this team. I'm not even convinced he would be better for this team than DeWil is."

BrewCity77, December 8, 2013

NersEllenson

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks]Carlino Top 100; Derrick vs. Paige/Harrison/Staten
« Reply #29 on: January 27, 2015, 12:51:33 PM »
Question: Say you have a team that is successful/winning with 4/5 starters being upperclassmen. But you also have a bunch of top 100 underclassmen talent sitting on the bench. As you've said, you need to give guys consistent playing time/run to figure out what they are. So, when do these underclassmen get "found out"? Your team is clearly successful currently, so you aren't going to bench the current starters just to find out about the underclassmen.

That's the point - the need to find out what you have in the Top 100 underclassmen isn't nearly as critical - if your upperclassmen are performing well and you are winning games at a respectable clip.

Furthermore, it is A LOT more tolerable as a talented player to sit on the bench behind an effective guy, on a winning team - than it is to sit behind a clearly overmatched upperclassmen on a losing/.500 team.

Now, in this case, with this team at this stage - with a roster of only 8 guys - it becomes even more suspect to bench a player/play a guy 12-15 minutes per game that was a Top 30-40 recruit just two years ago.
"I'm not sure Cadougan would fix the problems on this team. I'm not even convinced he would be better for this team than DeWil is."

BrewCity77, December 8, 2013

Lennys Tap

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks]Carlino Top 100; Derrick vs. Paige/Harrison/Staten
« Reply #30 on: January 27, 2015, 12:52:12 PM »
You like the players on this list?
At least 24% of possessions used
Rank   Player   Team   Ht   Wt   Yr   ORtg
1   Sterling Gibbs   Seton Hall   6-2   185   Jr            118.9 (24.4)
2   LaDontae Henton   Providence   6-6   215   Sr            113.6 (26.9)
3   Joshua Smith   Georgetown   6-10   350   Sr   113.2 (28.8)
4   D'Angelo Harrison   St. John's   6-4   202   Sr   112.1 (25.4)
5   Myke Henry   DePaul   6-6   228   Jr   104.3 (25.0)
6   Kris Dunn   Providence   6-3   205   So           101.4 (30.3)
7   Roosevelt Jones   Butler   6-4   227   Jr   100.2 (25.5)
8   Rysheed Jordan   St. John's   6-4   193   So   92.0 (28.9)
9   Devin Brooks   Creighton   6-2   175   Sr   90.4 (26.1)
10   JaJuan Johnson   Marquette   6-5   185   So   89.4 (25.3)

So, if you want to get all caught up in O-Rating - Kris Dunn is a worse player than Derrick Wilson.  So is Roosevelt Jones.  Where do those guys rank on Bama's list of Big EAst players?

JJJ is an AGGRESSIVE player - I look at that Top 10 list in the Big East above and see a lot of players I like.  Yes JJJ needs to improve, yet like I said all of last year you have to give a guy consistent playing time and run to know what he really "is."  JJJ has gotten 7 games this season of 25+ minutes.  His O-Rating in those games 98.  Is it great?  No, but it is much better than 89.

Meanwhile Derrick Wilson has ONLY 3 games of less than 25 minutes.  His average O Rating in those games??  67

But I know, all the guys here who have never played the game on much of any level will ridicule my statement that you need long runs of playing time to reflect what you truly are as a player.  To draw conclusions off of a guy playing scattered DNP's, to 10 minutes to 17 minutes, comprised of 3 or 4 different stints of action - you just can't draw any relevant conclusions from that type of playing time.

JJJ got solid minutes early, actually even started some games. Just like last year, when the competition got tougher his play deteriorated. So he lost minutes. Part of his losing those minutes was Sandy Cohen doing what you think is impossible - playing well enough in short spurts to earn more minutes. JJJ's numbers aren't the worst of our 5 perimeter players because of his lack of minutes. It's the other way around - his minutes have become the fewest of our 5 perimeter players because his numbers are the worst. Want more? Do what Cohen did - play better.


Lennys Tap

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks]Carlino Top 100; Derrick vs. Paige/Harrison/Staten
« Reply #31 on: January 27, 2015, 12:54:46 PM »
Usage does not equal good. All usage means is that the players shoots and turns the ball over a ton.

High Usage + High Efficiency = All Star
Low Usage + High Efficiency = Solid role player
Low Usage + Low Efficiency = Bench Player
High Usage + Low Efficiency = Disaster

Guess which one JjJ is at this point?

Footnote me next time - guys in academia get in trouble for plagiarizing.  :)

NersEllenson

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks]Carlino Top 100; Derrick vs. Paige/Harrison/Staten
« Reply #32 on: January 27, 2015, 01:06:35 PM »
JJJ got solid minutes early, actually even started some games. Just like last year, when the competition got tougher his play deteriorated. So he lost minutes. Part of his losing those minutes was Sandy Cohen doing what you think is impossible - playing well enough in short spurts to earn more minutes. JJJ's numbers aren't the worst of our 5 perimeter players because of his lack of minutes. It's the other way around - his minutes have become the fewest of our 5 perimeter players because his numbers are the worst. Want more? Do what Cohen did - play better.


Cohen was a starter to begin the year, FYI.  And JJJ's 3 games over 30 minutes were against TN Martin, Ohio State, and Arizona State.  TN Martin stacks up as our 6th best win of the year after Prov, Arizona State, Tennessee, Georgia Tech, Creighton.

How do you explain Derrick's 67 O-Rating in games he played less than 25?  Ironically - We are talking TN Martin, Ohio State, and Arizona State  -the three games JJJ's increased to over 30.  So, Derrick's minutes get reduced in those games, and he turns in a 67 O Rating, meanwhile JJJ's minutes are increased in those games and he turns in a 98 O Rating - a 10 point improvement - where as Derrick regresses 36 points in O-Rating from his season clip of 103. 

"I'm not sure Cadougan would fix the problems on this team. I'm not even convinced he would be better for this team than DeWil is."

BrewCity77, December 8, 2013

jesmu84

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks]Carlino Top 100; Derrick vs. Paige/Harrison/Staten
« Reply #33 on: January 27, 2015, 01:08:35 PM »
That's the point - the need to find out what you have in the Top 100 underclassmen isn't nearly as critical - if your upperclassmen are performing well and you are winning games at a respectable clip.

Furthermore, it is A LOT more tolerable as a talented player to sit on the bench behind an effective guy, on a winning team - than it is to sit behind a clearly overmatched upperclassmen on a losing/.500 team.

Now, in this case, with this team at this stage - with a roster of only 8 guys - it becomes even more suspect to bench a player/play a guy 12-15 minutes per game that was a Top 30-40 recruit just two years ago.

So, underclassmen can develop on the bench/in practice. You don't HAVE to find out what they are in games. Your perspective is more one of frustration to those sitting while a team doesn't win games. That I can understand/agree with. But the two points can be spoken of seperately.

NersEllenson

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks]Carlino Top 100; Derrick vs. Paige/Harrison/Staten
« Reply #34 on: January 27, 2015, 01:15:17 PM »
So, underclassmen can develop on the bench/in practice. You don't HAVE to find out what they are in games. Your perspective is more one of frustration to those sitting while a team doesn't win games. That I can understand/agree with. But the two points can be spoken of seperately.

There is no substitute for game experience.  Everything ticks just a bit faster in games.  Playing in front of friends, family, fellow students - all gives an added element of juice for a player.

Most players at this level really enhance their skills in the offseason.  Certainly some skill building occurs during practice, yet not nearly what takes place in the offseason.

And yes, my frustration and issue with highly thought of underclassmen riding the bench, stems mostly from it occurring on a losing/.500 type of team.  I do feel all of Deonte, JJJ and John could have benefitted last year from playing more minutes carrying that forward to this year.    All three of those guys would have had a lot more data to know where the holes in their games were when it mattered the most - games.
"I'm not sure Cadougan would fix the problems on this team. I'm not even convinced he would be better for this team than DeWil is."

BrewCity77, December 8, 2013

Lennys Tap

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks]Carlino Top 100; Derrick vs. Paige/Harrison/Staten
« Reply #35 on: January 27, 2015, 01:58:47 PM »


How do you explain Derrick's 67 O-Rating in games he played less than 25?  Ironically - We are talking TN Martin, Ohio State, and Arizona State  -the three games JJJ's increased to over 30.  So, Derrick's minutes get reduced in those games, and he turns in a 67 O Rating, meanwhile JJJ's minutes are increased in those games and he turns in a 98 O Rating - a 10 point improvement - where as Derrick regresses 36 points in O-Rating from his season clip of 103. 



Very easily. Derrick's O-rating didn't drop because Wojo cut his minutes. Wojo cut his minutes because he was playing badly, even worse than JJJ normally does. And JJJ's O-rating didn't go up because he got some of those available minutes. He got some of those minutes because he was playing better than usual in his normal minutes. Play crappy, minutes shrink, play better, minutes increase makes infinitely more sense than more minutes make guys who are playing lousy guys who play well.

Your concept that a .500 team can't get any worse by benching the guys who have earned PT in favor of the guys who haven't strikes me as wrongheaded in any sport. It's an affront to logic. That renders your experience playing the game beside the point, IMO. You have a passion for MU, you know the game and you're a good guy. But when Buzz, Autry, Wojo, Carrawell, Diener, etc., are on one side of a basketball argument and you, Texas Western, Willie and Mojo are on the other I think you should at least consider the possibility that those guys aren't total idiots. That doesn't mean you always have to agree. I disagree with "experts" on a regular basis - presidents, movie reviewers, my teachers, coaches, you name it. But I don't think that they and those who might agree with them are fools. I don't think you do either.


Lennys Tap

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks]Carlino Top 100; Derrick vs. Paige/Harrison/Staten
« Reply #36 on: January 27, 2015, 02:13:14 PM »


And yes, my frustration and issue with highly thought of underclassmen riding the bench, stems mostly from it occurring on a losing/.500 type of team.  I do feel all of Deonte, JJJ and John could have benefitted last year from playing more minutes carrying that forward to this year.    All three of those guys would have had a lot more data to know where the holes in their games were when it mattered the most - games.

But when March rolled around last year we weren't a losing/.500 team. We were 17-11 (.607) and 9-6 (.600) in the Big East. Whether you want to admit it or not, we still had a shot at the NCAA tournament. We lost 3 OT regular season games and a heartbreaker in the Big East tournament to finish 17-15, but we could have just as easily been 21-11 and playing in the Big East semis. In hindsight I guess we could have thrown in the towel and played the freshmen more earlier but I liked the fact that we were still trying to win every game.

g0lden3agle

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks]Carlino Top 100; Derrick vs. Paige/Harrison/Staten
« Reply #37 on: January 27, 2015, 02:28:56 PM »
Cohen was a starter to begin the year, FYI.  And JJJ's 3 games over 30 minutes were against TN Martin, Ohio State, and Arizona State.  TN Martin stacks up as our 6th best win of the year after Prov, Arizona State, Tennessee, Georgia Tech, Creighton.

How do you explain Derrick's 67 O-Rating in games he played less than 25?  Ironically - We are talking TN Martin, Ohio State, and Arizona State  -the three games JJJ's increased to over 30.  So, Derrick's minutes get reduced in those games, and he turns in a 67 O Rating, meanwhile JJJ's minutes are increased in those games and he turns in a 98 O Rating - a 10 point improvement - where as Derrick regresses 36 points in O-Rating from his season clip of 103. 



Can you help me understand how one's O rating depends on minutes played, as opposed to their minutes played being driven by their O rating?  I think you're trying to connect dots that aren't there.  Derrick is playing bad, he gets the bench.  JJJ seized the most of those extra minutes he got.  There isn't much else to it than that.

NersEllenson

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks]Carlino Top 100; Derrick vs. Paige/Harrison/Staten
« Reply #38 on: January 27, 2015, 05:08:50 PM »
Very easily. Derrick's O-rating didn't drop because Wojo cut his minutes. Wojo cut his minutes because he was playing badly, even worse than JJJ normally does. And JJJ's O-rating didn't go up because he got some of those available minutes. He got some of those minutes because he was playing better than usual in his normal minutes. Play crappy, minutes shrink, play better, minutes increase makes infinitely more sense than more minutes make guys who are playing lousy guys who play well.

Your concept that a .500 team can't get any worse by benching the guys who have earned PT in favor of the guys who haven't strikes me as wrongheaded in any sport. It's an affront to logic. That renders your experience playing the game beside the point, IMO. You have a passion for MU, you know the game and you're a good guy. But when Buzz, Autry, Wojo, Carrawell, Diener, etc., are on one side of a basketball argument and you, Texas Western, Willie and Mojo are on the other I think you should at least consider the possibility that those guys aren't total idiots. That doesn't mean you always have to agree. I disagree with "experts" on a regular basis - presidents, movie reviewers, my teachers, coaches, you name it. But I don't think that they and those who might agree with them are fools. I don't think you do either.


Lenny - I respect you and your posts, though we disagreed a lot in the last year.  The buck stops with the head coach - assistants may want/think other guys should be getting more minutes.  Certainly a level headed head coach would value the input of his assistants, yet ultimately the head coach is their meal ticket.  How much do you want to but heads with your boss?  Last season Wainwright wouldn't go to Buzz about Todd playing more - he told Todd to go to Buzz and ask for more time, to be allowed to play through his mistakes.

Todd as a player didn't all of a sudden become night and day better the last 10 games of the season.  What changed is Buzz let him play through his mistakes early, not bench him.  Todd eventually got into a good rhythm and as is the case for most players, once you get good and consistent minutes your performance tends to get more consistent, and talent maximized.

But when March rolled around last year we weren't a losing/.500 team. We were 17-11 (.607) and 9-6 (.600) in the Big East. Whether you want to admit it or not, we still had a shot at the NCAA tournament. We lost 3 OT regular season games and a heartbreaker in the Big East tournament to finish 17-15, but we could have just as easily been 21-11 and playing in the Big East semis. In hindsight I guess we could have thrown in the towel and played the freshmen more earlier but I liked the fact that we were still trying to win every game.

I can also appreciate your above point Lenny.  You automatically assume the freshman were worse than the vets - and that is a HUGE stretch/leap to make when you are talking about Burton versus Juan last season.  And Derrick, of last year - as Value Add said - actually had a NEGATIVE value add.

It was plain as day to most anyone that if Buzz continued to roll out Derrick and Jake for 30+ minutes per game, the team didn't stand a snowballs chance in hell to be a winner - even if it had some close losses.  In my view, the fact that we had so many closes losses was incredible given Buzz's insistence on playing 4 on 5 all of last year.
"I'm not sure Cadougan would fix the problems on this team. I'm not even convinced he would be better for this team than DeWil is."

BrewCity77, December 8, 2013

bamamarquettefan

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks]Carlino Top 100; Derrick vs. Paige/Harrison/Staten
« Reply #39 on: January 27, 2015, 06:09:26 PM »
Can you help me understand how one's O rating depends on minutes played, as opposed to their minutes played being driven by their O rating?  I think you're trying to connect dots that aren't there.  Derrick is playing bad, he gets the bench.  JJJ seized the most of those extra minutes he got.  There isn't much else to it than that.
The surprising thing about the numbers he is citing is that normally a player's o-rating drops the more minutes he plays and the more he has to be the man with the ball (possessions) because it encourages double teams etc. In fact, the 2003 book "Basketball on Paper" that all this is based on actually showed that even Kobe became a below average player in games in which he had to do all the shooting.

I understand what you are saying too - that a player would logically get more minutes when he is having a good game and vice versa - which does explain above - but over the course of the season they actually do better when the load isn't all on them.

I am note sure what Duane and Matt had for offensive ratings at the end of regulation, but it had to be through the roof at that point before they were turning it over and missing shots in OT with no gas in the tank.
The www.valueaddsports.com analysis of basketball, football and baseball players are intended to neither be too hot or too cold - hundreds immerse themselves in studies of stats not of interest to broader fan bases (too hot), while others still insist on pure observation (too cold).

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks]Carlino Top 100; Derrick vs. Paige/Harrison/Staten
« Reply #40 on: January 27, 2015, 06:18:49 PM »
Usage does not equal good. All usage means is that the players shoots and turns the ball over a ton.

High Usage + High Efficiency = All Star
Low Usage + High Efficiency = Solid role player
Low Usage + Low Efficiency = Bench Player
High Usage + Low Efficiency = Disaster

Guess which one JjJ is at this point?
True on offense - BUT he is our top steals guy (3.5% of opposing trips) and is one of the rate players in the country who is in the top 4% in the country in both steals AND avoiding fouling while doing it. Our defense still relies on steals (12th in the country as a team).

Our defense was ranked No. 1 in Big East play during those first three games with him playing 21 minutes a game, and has been way below conference average in the last four games with him playing only 10 minutes a game. Not denying the terrible offense, but the two things we do well on defense are steal the ball and contest 3 pointers, and I do think JJJ is a big asset on the defensive end.
The www.valueaddsports.com analysis of basketball, football and baseball players are intended to neither be too hot or too cold - hundreds immerse themselves in studies of stats not of interest to broader fan bases (too hot), while others still insist on pure observation (too cold).

bamamarquettefan

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks]Carlino Top 100; Derrick vs. Paige/Harrison/Staten
« Reply #41 on: January 27, 2015, 06:39:28 PM »
Again, you misunderstand value add. You can't look at this stat and say "Derrick Wilson is ranked above Javaughn Pinkston he must be the better player." All it say is that Derrick is more valuable to his team. If you put Derrick Wilson on Villanova, he'd probably have a ranking in the 90s. This is really only useful when comparing within a single team.

Good comments, but I would say players who move between teams seem to have about the same Value Add (once you adjust for the regular adjustment for years). Sure, it could be that Derrick would just never get in a game if on Nova's roster and thus the Value Add would go away, but normally what happens when a player moves from a team like Marquette to a team like Villanova is that their minutes go down BUT their per minute Value goes up because they only take the easiest shots and get much less defensive attention too. We are actually comparing his value to what we believe and average replacement player IN THE COUNTRY would do in his place rather than the actual 9th man on his team, so we are using a standard 9th man in the country rather than seeing how much better Derrick is than one of the Mache twins vs. if he played for Nova and Darryl Reynolds (11 of 16 shooting with 23 rebounds this year) were getting his minutes. I know he is a forward, but just to give an example.
The www.valueaddsports.com analysis of basketball, football and baseball players are intended to neither be too hot or too cold - hundreds immerse themselves in studies of stats not of interest to broader fan bases (too hot), while others still insist on pure observation (too cold).

bamamarquettefan

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks]Carlino Top 100; Derrick vs. Paige/Harrison/Staten
« Reply #42 on: January 27, 2015, 07:02:41 PM »
You like the players on this list?
At least 24% of possessions used

So, if you want to get all caught up in O-Rating - Kris Dunn is a worse player than Derrick Wilson.  So is Roosevelt Jones.  Where do those guys rank on Bama's list of Big EAst players?
Yes, you are right on and this was the exact reason I first contacted Ken Pomeroy about my idea for Value Add in 2011. Keep in mind that Kemba Walker had an offensive rating of 116.7, which meant he was not one of the top 100 players in the country the year of the title run. What Value Add says is you are getting that 116.7 instead of a low 90s rating from Kemba for 92.4 percent of all minutes UConn plays with him taking 32.9 percent of the team's shot while on the court and handling the ball even more. A guy can put up a 116.7 by coming in for a few minutes a game and having a good three-point percentage and still have a very low Value Add, but in Value Add Kemba was ranked #2 in the country.

I mean how often did you see Kemba outplayed? Oh yeah, Kemba did miss 17 shots and turned it over when Jimmy F-ing Butler went into UConn's gym to upset the Huskies for the second time in two years, but I mean against all the OTHER players Kemba was almost unstoppable.
The www.valueaddsports.com analysis of basketball, football and baseball players are intended to neither be too hot or too cold - hundreds immerse themselves in studies of stats not of interest to broader fan bases (too hot), while others still insist on pure observation (too cold).

bamamarquettefan

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your man Pinkston in two losses - 1 for 9 with 9 turnovers
« Reply #43 on: January 27, 2015, 07:22:55 PM »
I don't care what these cute numbers say ... or as valuable as players like Pinkston...
Here are the cute numbers on your man Pinkston who has been so much more valuable than Derrick this year. His field goal percentage has dropped from 52% to 42% this season - and that's without a single three-point shot. He is turning the ball over 50% more often than he did last year.

All irrelevant to a team in the Top 10?

How about the two times Villanova needed him - their two losses.

Let's see, 0 for 2 from the floor with 6 turnovers against Georgetown this year. If Villanova hadn't had to play 4 on 5 in that game then maybe it wouldn't have gotten out of hand.

How about the other loss - Seton Hall? - 1 for 7 but a much better 50% from the line at 5 for 10 with 3 turnovers.

You don't think Pinkston has COST Nova points in those games.

The problem is you are REMEMBERING how good Pinkston was last year and you are looking at a skill set that COULD make him good down the stretch. However, I'd have to say all those missed shots and turnovers are not cute numbers.

Value Add measures how many points a player has gained AND LOST for his team this year, and Pinkston has played no where near as he did last year while Derrick has improved by a huge margin. Yes, last year Pinkston was a stud and ranked as the 5th best player in the Big East in Value Add (search 2014 and BE after clicking here http://valueaddbasketball.com/ballall.html). This year he has been much worse to date and has NOT been one of the best 25 players in the conference. The numbers work fine, you just aren't watching enough games!
« Last Edit: January 27, 2015, 07:30:44 PM by bamamarquettefan »
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bamamarquettefan

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Thanks all for reading!
« Reply #44 on: January 27, 2015, 07:34:15 PM »
Hey, thanks all for the comments even those who disagree with me on stuff. I know sometimes my stuff is too much in the weeds and not as fun as some of the clever minds on MUScoop, but after an intense day of work it was great to see this post stirred a little interest. It made my day to see everyone weighing in - pro or con on me or JJJ or whoever.

Go Warriors!
The www.valueaddsports.com analysis of basketball, football and baseball players are intended to neither be too hot or too cold - hundreds immerse themselves in studies of stats not of interest to broader fan bases (too hot), while others still insist on pure observation (too cold).

79Warrior

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks]Carlino Top 100; Derrick vs. Paige/Harrison/Staten
« Reply #45 on: January 27, 2015, 11:18:15 PM »
Buzz is no Billy Donovan but he had a lot of skins on the wall too. That didn't stop your outrageous claims of incompetence and/or outright tanking last year.

Lenny, you have to stop responding to the dope.

WarriorInNYC

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Re: Thanks all for reading!
« Reply #46 on: January 28, 2015, 07:20:49 AM »
Hey, thanks all for the comments even those who disagree with me on stuff. I know sometimes my stuff is too much in the weeds and not as fun as some of the clever minds on MUScoop, but after an intense day of work it was great to see this post stirred a little interest. It made my day to see everyone weighing in - pro or con on me or JJJ or whoever.

Go Warriors!

bama, all of this is awesome.  Thanks for all the sharing!

TSmith34, Inc.

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks]Carlino Top 100; Derrick vs. Paige/Harrison/Staten
« Reply #47 on: January 28, 2015, 08:38:17 AM »
Very easily. Derrick's O-rating didn't drop because Wojo cut his minutes.


It's a strange bit of reasoning that he has repeated endlessly.  In his mind, you give a kid minutes then they magically perform better, whereas everyone else, including our coaches believe that when you perform better you earn more minutes.
If you think for one second that I am comparing the USA to China you have bumped your hard.

Lennys Tap

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks]Carlino Top 100; Derrick vs. Paige/Harrison/Staten
« Reply #48 on: January 28, 2015, 09:06:53 AM »
Lenny - I respect you and your posts, though we disagreed a lot in the last year.  The buck stops with the head coach - assistants may want/think other guys should be getting more minutes.  Certainly a level headed head coach would value the input of his assistants, yet ultimately the head coach is their meal ticket.  How much do you want to but heads with your boss?  Last season Wainwright wouldn't go to Buzz about Todd playing more - he told Todd to go to Buzz and ask for more time, to be allowed to play through his mistakes.



I don't doubt for a minute that Wainwright went to Todd and gave him a boost. Told him he was player, told him to keep his head up, be aggressive. Told him to go to Buzz and tell him he wanted and deserved more time. And when Todd approached Buzz, I'm sure Buzz said "OK, I know what you want, here's what I want you to do. Prove it".

Pretty typical. Jerry was the nice guy assistant getting a spark from a player with some encouragement. Then Buzz lit the fire with his challenge. I'd be shocked if it wasn't Buzz's plan  from the beginning.
« Last Edit: January 28, 2015, 04:53:40 PM by Lennys Tap »

bamamarquettefan

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Re: Thanks all for reading!
« Reply #49 on: January 28, 2015, 04:50:37 PM »
bama, all of this is awesome.  Thanks for all the sharing!
Thank you! Well, looks like I may need to do a meeting in NYC in March so it just may be around Big East tournament time. Maybe I will see you there WarriorInNYC!
The www.valueaddsports.com analysis of basketball, football and baseball players are intended to neither be too hot or too cold - hundreds immerse themselves in studies of stats not of interest to broader fan bases (too hot), while others still insist on pure observation (too cold).