[Cracked Sidewalks]Carlino Top 100; Derrick vs. Paige/Harrison/Staten

[CrackedSidewalksSays]

Carlino Top 100; Derrick vs. Paige/Harrison/Staten

In a piece on Coach K on Breitbart this morning, I noted that Duke players had dominated the Value Add rankings (see 2003-2015 players here) with 35 top 100 players and eight top 10 players - but the table also noted that Marquette had the 10th most top 100 players (18) and the third most top 10 players (Butler, Crowder, Diener, Wade).

The weekly run of the www.valueaddbasketball.com numbers tonight (database not updated yet) showed Marquette now has their 19th top 100 player in Matt Carlino, and Derrick Wilson is one of the most improved players in jumping from a 0,00 Value Add last season to 3.42 - the 27th best total in the tough Big East.

Carlino's recent impersonation of Steve Novak (19 of 33 treys for 58% and 18-19 free throws for 95% in last four games) has shot him all the way to 94th. I know "top 100" does not sound great - but it is phenomenal when you consider the 4000+ players in the country. In fact, I get lots of complaints from around the country in disbelief that a local star is not in the top 100.

The fact that Carlino did this against defenses that were were very good: one average (Creighton100.6 points per 100 trips just better than average), one good (Xavier 98.3) and two excellent (St. John's 92.9 and Georgetown 94.3) shoots him way up the list. Carlino is worth 6.30 extra points a game to MU according to Value Add - the 8th best total in the Big East.

But Derrick's surge is the more surprising and really makes the case for a potential quiet most improved player of the year. Wilson never hit even 1.00 in his first three seasons, and last year collapsed to a 0.00 only because we do not give negative numbers.

The thing that Value Add measures that most do not see are players who do not make mistakes - and Derrick has turned into one of the best at not COSTING MU points:

The thing that makes Derrick so much more valuable this year is not that he suddenly doesn't mind going to the hoop to slam twice in a short span (once while being mauled), or that his three-pointer has become just enough of a threat that you cannot leave him alone.

Ken Pomeroy measures Derrick as one of the best at avoiding fouls. He takes so few bad shots, that Derrick IS AN ABOVE AVERAGE SHOOTER THIS SEASON (jumped from 40.9 eFG% last year to 49.0% this season). Yes, the free throw percentage overall is dreadful, but his 58% since Thanksgiving is not that bad - so all the offseason shooting has paid off.

The fun starts when you compare Derrick to three point guards that some considered the best three in the country coming into this year; UNC's Marcus Paige, Kentucky's Andrew Harrison and West Virginia's Juwan Staten.

Obviously those three are light years ahead of Derrick on offense, and may make take over games on the way to title runs. But ignore the differences in shooting for a minute. Derrick's on-ball defense is excellent, so lets go through the other numbers:

Derrick has come up with 23 steals, the exact average of Paige/Harrison/Staten

Derrick has done this while committing only 31 fouls - an incredible ratio and just one more foul than the average of the Big Three - and with Derrick having to commit a few late fouls to stop the clock really no difference there.

Here is where it gets fun - Derrick has come up with those steals on one end of the court while only turning the ball over 25 times at the other end -meaning he has turned the ball over A DOZEN TIMES FEWER than the average of the Big 3 (37 turnovers). Remember, there are over twice as many turnovers as steals due to balls thrown out of bounds, travels, etc.

The big three have only a slight edge over Derrick in assists - 78 to 70 - despite MU playing at a slow tempo. But that is more than made up for by Derrick ripping down 15 more rebounds that the average of the other three (62 to 47 edge).

Of course once you add in the offensive explosiveness of those three they are all still in the top 5% of all players and average a 5.71 Value Add, while Derrick comes in at 437th with a 3.42 Value Add, but he has worked very hard to do the things he can do very well and be a strong contributor.

With advanced apologies to MUScoop readers who of course can never read the Top 100 when the code is jumped when these Cracked Sidewalks posts are pulled over to the scoop - here are the top 100 players in the Big East.

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<table class="tableizer-table"><tbody><tr class="tableizer-firstrow"><th>Player</th><th>Natl</th><th>BE</th><th>Team</th><th>Value add</th></tr><tr><td>15 Sir'Dominic Pointer</td><td>14</td><td>1</td><td>St. John's</td><td>8.42</td></tr><tr><td>4 D'Vauntes Smith-Rivera</td><td>17</td><td>2</td><td>Georgetown</td><td>8.31</td></tr><tr><td>23 LaDontae Henton</td><td>48</td><td>3</td><td>Providence</td><td>7.19</td></tr><tr><td>40 Matt Stainbrook</td><td>62</td><td>4</td><td>Xavier</td><td>6.89</td></tr><tr><td>3 Kris Dunn</td><td>66</td><td>5</td><td>Providence</td><td>6.82</td></tr><tr><td>4 Sterling Gibbs</td><td>80</td><td>6</td><td>Seton Hall</td><td>6.50</td></tr><tr><td>11 D'Angelo Harrison</td><td>83</td><td>7</td><td>St. John's</td><td>6.43</td></tr><tr><td>13 Matt Carlino</td><td>94</td><td>8</td><td>Marquette</td><td>6.30</td></tr><tr><td>4 Darrun Hilliard</td><td>99</td><td>9</td><td>Villanova</td><td>6.21</td></tr><tr><td>23 Daniel Ochefu</td><td>136</td><td>10</td><td>Villanova</td><td>5.70</td></tr><tr><td>31 Kameron Woods</td><td>145</td><td>11</td><td>Butler</td><td>5.58</td></tr><tr><td>3 Josh Hart</td><td>155</td><td>12</td><td>Villanova</td><td>5.44</td></tr><tr><td>24 Joshua Smith</td><td>168</td><td>13</td><td>Georgetown</td><td>5.31</td></tr><tr><td>3 Alex Barlow</td><td>176</td><td>14</td><td>Butler</td><td>5.24</td></tr><tr><td>2 Brandon Mobley</td><td>187</td><td>15</td><td>Seton Hall</td><td>5.05</td></tr><tr><td>31 Angel Delgado</td><td>194</td><td>16</td><td>Seton Hall</td><td>4.94</td></tr><tr><td>15 Ryan Arcidiacono</td><td>208</td><td>17</td><td>Villanova</td><td>4.80</td></tr><tr><td>24 Kellen Dunham</td><td>218</td><td>18</td><td>Butler</td><td>4.74</td></tr><tr><td>12 Chris Obekpa</td><td>256</td><td>19</td><td>St. John's</td><td>4.45</td></tr><tr><td>5 Trevon Bluiett</td><td>269</td><td>20</td><td>Xavier</td><td>4.37</td></tr><tr><td>31 Dylan Ennis</td><td>289</td><td>21</td><td>Villanova</td><td>4.20</td></tr><tr><td>21 Roosevelt Jones</td><td>332</td><td>22</td><td>Butler</td><td>3.97</td></tr><tr><td>55 Jabril Trawick</td><td>355</td><td>23</td><td>Georgetown</td><td>3.84</td></tr><tr><td>1 Jalen Reynolds</td><td>378</td><td>24</td><td>Xavier</td><td>3.71</td></tr><tr><td>11 Dee Davis</td><td>381</td><td>25</td><td>Xavier</td><td>3.68</td></tr><tr><td>5 Billy Garrett</td><td>388</td><td>26</td><td>DePaul</td><td>3.66</td></tr><tr><td>12 Derrick Wilson</td><td>437</td><td>27</td><td>Marquette</td><td>3.42</td></tr><tr><td>15 Myles Davis</td><td>445</td><td>28</td><td>Xavier</td><td>3.38</td></tr><tr><td>22 JayVaughn Pinkston</td><td>459</td><td>29</td><td>Villanova</td><td>3.31</td></tr><tr><td>1 Duane Wilson</td><td>467</td><td>30</td><td>Marquette</td><td>3.28</td></tr><tr><td>0 Khadeen Carrington</td><td>469</td><td>31</td><td>Seton Hall</td><td>3.27</td></tr><tr><td>4 Myke Henry</td><td>476</td><td>32</td><td>DePaul</td><td>3.24</td></tr><tr><td>33 Carson Desrosiers</td><td>479</td><td>33</td><td>Providence</td><td>3.24</td></tr><tr><td>25 Durrell McDonald</td><td>485</td><td>34</td><td>DePaul</td><td>3.23</td></tr><tr><td>2 Kris Jenkins</td><td>487</td><td>35</td><td>Villanova</td><td>3.21</td></tr><tr><td>21 Isaiah Zierden</td><td>500</td><td>36</td><td>Creighton</td><td>3.16</td></tr><tr><td>23 Rysheed Jordan</td><td>507</td><td>37</td><td>St. John's</td><td>3.14</td></tr><tr><td>20 Desi Rodriguez</td><td>552</td><td>38</td><td>Seton Hall</td><td>3.00</td></tr><tr><td>25 Tyler Harris</td><td>563</td><td>39</td><td>Providence</td><td>2.98</td></tr><tr><td>10 Remy Abell</td><td>590</td><td>40</td><td>Xavier</td><td>2.87</td></tr><tr><td>10 Juan Anderson</td><td>593</td><td>41</td><td>Marquette</td><td>2.86</td></tr><tr><td>21 Jamee Crockett</td><td>657</td><td>42</td><td>DePaul</td><td>2.67</td></tr><tr><td>15 Isaiah Whitehead</td><td>685</td><td>43</td><td>Seton Hall</td><td>2.57</td></tr><tr><td>1 Austin Chatman</td><td>689</td><td>44</td><td>Creighton</td><td>2.56</td></tr><tr><td>45 Andrew Chrabascz</td><td>702</td><td>45</td><td>Butler</td><td>2.53</td></tr><tr><td>13 Paul White</td><td>769</td><td>46</td><td>Georgetown</td><td>2.37</td></tr><tr><td>23 Aaron Bowen</td><td>834</td><td>47</td><td>Georgetown</td><td>2.22</td></tr><tr><td>3 Mikael Hopkins</td><td>846</td><td>48</td><td>Georgetown</td><td>2.18</td></tr><tr><td>0 Jamal Branch</td><td>861</td><td>49</td><td>St. John's</td><td>2.16</td></tr><tr><td>40 Luke Fischer</td><td>883</td><td>50</td><td>Marquette</td><td>2.11</td></tr><tr><td>5 Sandy Cohen</td><td>888</td><td>51</td><td>Marquette</td><td>2.10</td></tr><tr><td>23 JaJuan Johnson</td><td>892</td><td>52</td><td>Marquette</td><td>2.09</td></tr><tr><td>11 Forrest Robinson</td><td>972</td><td>53</td><td>DePaul</td><td>1.96</td></tr><tr><td>55 J.P. Macura</td><td>998</td><td>54</td><td>Xavier</td><td>1.92</td></tr><tr><td>32 Toby Hegner</td><td>1013</td><td>55</td><td>Creighton</td><td>1.89</td></tr><tr><td>11 Isaac Copeland</td><td>1035</td><td>56</td><td>Georgetown</td><td>1.86</td></tr><tr><td>5 Phil Booth</td><td>1095</td><td>57</td><td>Villanova</td><td>1.75</td></tr><tr><td>1 Phil Greene</td><td>1100</td><td>58</td><td>St. John's</td><td>1.74</td></tr><tr><td>2 Tommy Hamilton</td><td>1111</td><td>59</td><td>DePaul</td><td>1.72</td></tr><tr><td>31 Will Artino</td><td>1197</td><td>60</td><td>Creighton</td><td>1.60</td></tr><tr><td>23 James Milliken</td><td>1276</td><td>61</td><td>Creighton</td><td>1.51</td></tr><tr><td>3 Brandon Randolph</td><td>1292</td><td>62</td><td>Xavier</td><td>1.50</td></tr><tr><td>1 Tre Campbell</td><td>1309</td><td>63</td><td>Georgetown</td><td>1.48</td></tr><tr><td>25 Steve Taylor</td><td>1312</td><td>64</td><td>Marquette</td><td>1.47</td></tr><tr><td>24 Kyron Cartwright</td><td>1330</td><td>65</td><td>Providence</td><td>1.46</td></tr><tr><td>0 L.J. Peak</td><td>1337</td><td>66</td><td>Georgetown</td><td>1.45</td></tr><tr><td>5 Devin Brooks</td><td>1391</td><td>67</td><td>Creighton</td><td>1.39</td></tr><tr><td>2 James Farr</td><td>1483</td><td>68</td><td>Xavier</td><td>1.28</td></tr><tr><td>0 Austin Etherington</td><td>1577</td><td>69</td><td>Butler</td><td>1.17</td></tr><tr><td>15 Ricky Kreklow</td><td>1631</td><td>70</td><td>Creighton</td><td>1.12</td></tr><tr><td>30 Jaren Sina</td><td>1782</td><td>71</td><td>Seton Hall</td><td>1.00</td></tr><tr><td>4 Tyler Wideman</td><td>1793</td><td>72</td><td>Butler</td><td>0.99</td></tr><tr><td>15 Aaron Simpson</td><td>1799</td><td>73</td><td>DePaul</td><td>0.98</td></tr><tr><td>13 Paschal Chukwu</td><td>1806</td><td>74</td><td>Providence</td><td>0.97</td></tr><tr><td>21 Jalen Lindsey</td><td>1926</td><td>75</td><td>Providence</td><td>0.83</td></tr><tr><td>30 Deonte Burton</td><td>2138</td><td>76</td><td>Marquette</td><td>0.64</td></tr><tr><td>30 Kelan Martin</td><td>2204</td><td>77</td><td>Butler</td><td>0.58</td></tr><tr><td>22 Ted Bancroft</td><td>2261</td><td>78</td><td>Providence</td><td>0.53</td></tr><tr><td>45 Stephane Manga</td><td>2320</td><td>79</td><td>Seton Hall</td><td>0.49</td></tr><tr><td>41 Geoffrey Groselle</td><td>2350</td><td>80</td><td>Creighton</td><td>0.47</td></tr><tr><td>33 Joe Hanel</td><td>2451</td><td>81</td><td>DePaul</td><td>0.39</td></tr><tr><td>24 Felix Balamou</td><td>2484</td><td>82</td><td>St. John's</td><td>0.38</td></tr><tr><td>13 Jackson Davis</td><td>2521</td><td>83</td><td>Butler</td><td>0.36</td></tr><tr><td>14 Amar Alibegovic</td><td>2525</td><td>84</td><td>St. John's</td><td>0.36</td></tr><tr><td>32 Junior Lomomba</td><td>2578</td><td>85</td><td>Providence</td><td>0.33</td></tr><tr><td>11 Jackson Aldridge</td><td>2606</td><td>86</td><td>Butler</td><td>0.32</td></tr><tr><td>4 Edmond Sumner</td><td>2636</td><td>87</td><td>Xavier</td><td>0.30</td></tr><tr><td>0 Larry Austin</td><td>2637</td><td>88</td><td>Xavier</td><td>0.30</td></tr><tr><td>1 Darrick Wood</td><td>2638</td><td>89</td><td>DePaul</td><td>0.30</td></tr><tr><td>22 Avery Dingman</td><td>2726</td><td>90</td><td>Creighton</td><td>0.24</td></tr><tr><td>0 R.J. Curington</td><td>2738</td><td>91</td><td>DePaul</td><td>0.23</td></tr><tr><td>13 Haralds Karlis</td><td>2739</td><td>92</td><td>Seton Hall</td><td>0.23</td></tr><tr><td>25 Rashed Anthony</td><td>2744</td><td>93</td><td>Seton Hall</td><td>0.23</td></tr><tr><td>42 Chier Ajou</td><td>2756</td><td>94</td><td>Seton Hall</td><td>0.23</td></tr><tr><td>14 Darryl Reynolds</td><td>2802</td><td>95</td><td>Villanova</td><td>0.20</td></tr><tr><td>0 Leon Gilmore</td><td>2858</td><td>96</td><td>Creighton</td><td>0.16</td></tr><tr><td>20 Patrick Farrell</td><td>2875</td><td>97</td><td>Villanova</td><td>0.15</td></tr><tr><td>2 Myles Stewart</td><td>2884</td><td>98</td><td>St. John's</td><td>0.15</td></tr><tr><td>4 Christian Jones</td><td>2899</td><td>99</td><td>St. John's</td><td>0.13</td></tr><tr><td>14 Ismael Sanogo</td><td>2900</td><td>100</td><td>Seton Hall</td><td>0.13</td></tr></tbody></table>

Source: Carlino Top 100; Derrick vs. Paige/Harrison/Staten

[bamamarquettefan]

For MUScoop readers, here are the top 100 Big East players from the table at the end of the piece. And FYI, Duane is now the 33rd best freshman in the country.

1   Sir'Dominic   Pointer   St. John's
2   D'Vauntes   Smith-Rivera   Georgetown
3   LaDontae   Henton   Providence
4   Matt   Stainbrook   Xavier
5   Kris   Dunn   Providence
6   Sterling   Gibbs   Seton Hall
7   D'Angelo   Harrison   St. John's
8   Matt   Carlino   Marquette
9   Darrun   Hilliard   Villanova
10   Daniel   Ochefu   Villanova
11   Kameron   Woods   Butler
12   Josh   Hart   Villanova
13   Joshua   Smith   Georgetown
14   Alex   Barlow   Butler
15   Brandon   Mobley   Seton Hall
16   Angel   Delgado   Seton Hall
17   Ryan   Arcidiacono   Villanova
18   Kellen   Dunham   Butler
19   Chris   Obekpa   St. John's
20   Trevon   Bluiett   Xavier
21   Dylan   Ennis   Villanova
22   Roosevelt   Jones   Butler
23   Jabril   Trawick   Georgetown
24   Jalen   Reynolds   Xavier
25   Dee   Davis   Xavier
26   Billy   Garrett   DePaul
27   Derrick   Wilson   Marquette
28   Myles   Davis   Xavier
29   JayVaughn   Pinkston   Villanova
30   Duane   Wilson   Marquette
31   Khadeen   Carrington   Seton Hall
32   Myke   Henry   DePaul
33   Carson   Desrosiers   Providence
34   Durrell   McDonald   DePaul
35   Kris   Jenkins   Villanova
36   Isaiah   Zierden   Creighton
37   Rysheed   Jordan   St. John's
38   Desi   Rodriguez   Seton Hall
39   Tyler   Harris   Providence
40   Remy   Abell   Xavier
41   Juan   Anderson   Marquette
42   Jamee   Crockett   DePaul
43   Isaiah   Whitehead   Seton Hall
44   Austin   Chatman   Creighton
45   Andrew   Chrabascz   Butler
46   Paul   White   Georgetown
47   Aaron   Bowen   Georgetown
48   Mikael   Hopkins   Georgetown
49   Jamal   Branch   St. John's
50   Luke   Fischer   Marquette
51   Sandy   Cohen   Marquette
52   JaJuan   Johnson   Marquette
53   Forrest   Robinson   DePaul
54   J.P.   Macura   Xavier
55   Toby   Hegner   Creighton
56   Isaac   Copeland   Georgetown
57   Phil   Booth   Villanova
58   Phil   Greene   St. John's
59   Tommy   Hamilton   DePaul
60   Will   Artino   Creighton
61   James   Milliken   Creighton
62   Brandon   Randolph   Xavier
63   Tre   Campbell   Georgetown
64   Steve   Taylor   Marquette
65   Kyron   Cartwright   Providence
66   L.J.   Peak   Georgetown
67   Devin   Brooks   Creighton
68   James   Farr   Xavier
69   Austin   Etherington   Butler
70   Ricky   Kreklow   Creighton
71   Jaren   Sina   Seton Hall
72   Tyler   Wideman   Butler
73   Aaron   Simpson   DePaul
74   Paschal   Chukwu   Providence
75   Jalen   Lindsey   Providence
76   Deonte   Burton   Marquette
77   Kelan   Martin   Butler
78   Ted   Bancroft   Providence
79   Stephane   Manga   Seton Hall
80   Geoffrey   Groselle   Creighton
81   Joe   Hanel   DePaul
82   Felix   Balamou   St. John's
83   Jackson   Davis   Butler
84   Amar   Alibegovic   St. John's
85   Junior   Lomomba   Providence
86   Jackson   Aldridge   Butler
87   Edmond   Sumner   Xavier
88   Larry   Austin   Xavier
89   Darrick   Wood   DePaul
90   Avery   Dingman   Creighton
91   R.J.   Curington   DePaul
92   Haralds   Karlis   Seton Hall
93   Rashed   Anthony   Seton Hall
94   Chier   Ajou   Seton Hall
95   Darryl   Reynolds   Villanova
96   Leon   Gilmore   Creighton
97   Patrick   Farrell   Villanova
98   Myles   Stewart   St. John's
99   Christian   Jones   St. John's
100   Ismael   Sanogo   Seton Hall

[GooooMarquette]

Derrick is ahead of some pretty good players.

This thread should be interesting....

[tower912]

May have to 'unignore', just for this thread.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Hmmmm....

Most of us have Derrick in the top 5. In fact I think most would agree that our best lineup this season has been:

Derrick
Carlino
Duane
Juan
Luke

Most would put Burton, JjJ, Steve, Sandy, and Dawson in the bottom 5.

Thanks for making me look smart bama.

[naginiF]

Derrick is ahead of some pretty good players.

This thread should be interesting....

If you are starting a pool i'll take "Duane would be much higher if Wojo's decision making around his playing were better (holding up a 4 minute sit as people's exhibit A)"

Thanks for the data Bama -

[esotericmindguy]

Saying that D Wilson is a part of MUs best lineup says more about the state of the team than it does your intelligence. I don't care what these cute numbers say, he's not even on the same stratosphere as the PGs listed or as valuable as players like Pinkston or Derosiers. Juan Anderson at 41? Algorithm needs to be adjusted.

[tower912]

Those top hundred are players in the Big East.   

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

Saying that D Wilson is a part of MUs best lineup says more about the state of the team than it does your intelligence. I don't care what these cute numbers say, he's not even on the same stratosphere as the PGs listed or as valuable as players like Pinkston or Derosiers. Juan Anderson at 41? Algorithm needs to be adjusted.

You have to look at value add in a larger context.  To isolate #27 Derrick Wilson vs #29 Jayvaughn Pinkston is flawed.  Compare the teams.  Marquette has 3 top 35 BE players according to value add but Villanova has 7.  Villanova's highest ranked player is 9th, which leads me to conclude that their collective strength takes away from their individual rankings.  Put another way, if Pinkston played on a less talented team like Marquette he would be more heavily relied on and likely move up the rankings.  Conversely, put Derrick Wilson on a more talented and he plays less, moving him down the value add rankings.

The other useful application of value add is to compare rankings within a roster.  Who should get more minutes between Juan Anderson and Steve Taylor?  Simple math: 10 BE teams x 5 starters= 50.  Looking at value add Juan is #41, an average BE starter, while Steve is #64 meaning he's a decent backup.  Juan should typically play more than Steve and he does.

Here's the full Marquette roster and their BE player rankings:

Matt Carlino 8
Derrick Wilson 27
Duane Wilson 30
Juan Anderson 41
Luke Fischer 50
Sandy Cohen 51
Jajuan Johnson 52
Steve Taylor 64

Conclusions:

Carlino is easily our best and most valuable player.
Then it's the Wilsons (Derrick being more steady while Duane has more hot and cold stretches with his best being better than Derrick)
Juan is 4th.
Luke is 5th barely ahead of Cohen and Johnson but being 2nd best frontcourt player gives him a bigger role than Sandy and Jajuan who are 4th and 5th for the three perimeter spots.
Sandy and Jajuan are fairly interchangeable as both have their ups and downs.
Steve is clearly 8th and behind Juan and Luke in the frontcourt rotation.  Being the 3rd frontcourt player means he will sometimes have a larger role than the 5th perimeter player, even though that player ranks a little higher overall.

[NersEllenson]

I respect Bama's work.  However, to say it is infallible is naive.  Would anyone here even say that Derrick Wilson and Billy Garrett are even in the same area code as far as the type of player they are/value they bring to a team??  Somehow I feel a guy averaging 5.5ppg in 33.85 minutes per game isn't the 27th best player in the conference.  Model weights way too heavy on turnovers.

Look at it this way - a guy like JJJ would average 15.5 points per 40 minutes.  Though he may turn the ball over more, he'd essentially have to turn it over 4 more times per game, and ALL 4 of those turnovers lead to made 2 point FGs (8 points) to be at a break even point with a ball protector like Derrick based on points per 40/ppg projections.    You play JJJ 34 minutes per game, you are virtually guaranteed 13-15ppg.  In fact JJJ has played 30 minutes or more in 3 games this year - TN Martin, Ohio State, Arizona State - he averaged 15.65ppg in those games.  Personally, I'd prefer to take 10 more ppg and a few more turnovers...from a much more talented basketball player - Not to mention get a sophomore more playing time and experience.

Lastly, I look at this list and see we have 7 players in the Top 52 on this list.  According to this data/list MU team isn't short of talent to be able to win at a much higher level than it has shown thus far.  So what's the rub?  Are we underperforming our talent?  For all the Steve Lavin can't coach jokes, he only has 5 guys in Top 52.  Butler?  5 players in Top 52.  Georgetown?  6 players.  Xavier?  6 players.  Nova 7 players.  Providence?  4 players.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Lastly, I look at this list and see we have 7 players in the Top 52 on this list.  According to this data/list MU team isn't short of talent to be able to win at a much higher level than it has shown thus far.  So what's the rub?  Are we underperforming our talent?  For all the Steve Lavin can't coach jokes, he only has 5 guys in Top 52.  Butler?  5 players in Top 52.  Georgetown?  6 players.  Xavier?  6 players.  Nova 7 players.  Providence?  4 players.

You fail to mention that 3 of those 7 are 50, 51, and 52. So you say 7 in the top 52. I say 4 in the top 49.

You also misunderstand what value add means. More players in the top doesn't mean we are a better team. It means we get a more equal contribution from all of our players. As Bama said, if you put those bottom three (or any of our players besides Carlino) on Nova's roster their rankings would plummet.

I'm also not accepting any of your "enough talent" hypothesises until you answer my questions about Florida.

[NersEllenson]

You fail to mention that 3 of those 7 are 50, 51, and 52. So you say 7 in the top 52. I say 4 in the top 49.

You also misunderstand what value add means. More players in the top doesn't mean we are a better team. It means we get a more equal contribution from all of our players. As Bama said, if you put those bottom three (or any of our players besides Carlino) on Nova's roster their rankings would plummet.

I'm also not accepting any of your "enough talent" hypothesises until you answer my questions about Florida.

That's a fine way to look at it - either way - we aren't under talented relative to the league.  Nor should we expect to finish anything less than 9-9 given the level of our talent.

As for Florida - you make a good case.  A few things I'd say:  Billy Donovan has lots of skins on the wall - to call into question his coaching is quite a bit different than to call into question Wojo's in his first year.  

Strength of schedule.  Pomeroy ranks Florida 37, despite their 10-9 record that matches Marquette. We are 92.  Next.

 

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

I respect Bama's work.  However, to say it is infallible is naive.  Would anyone here even say that Derrick Wilson and Billy Garrett are even in the same area code as far as the type of player they are/value they bring to a team??  Somehow I feel a guy averaging 5.5ppg in 33.85 minutes per game isn't the 27th best player in the conference.  Model weights way too heavy on turnovers.

Look at it this way - a guy like JJJ would average 15.5 points per 40 minutes.  Though he may turn the ball over more, he'd essentially have to turn it over 4 more times per game, and ALL 4 of those turnovers lead to made 2 point FGs (8 points) to be at a break even point with a ball protector like Derrick based on points per 40/ppg projections.    You play JJJ 34 minutes per game, you are virtually guaranteed 13-15ppg.  In fact JJJ has played 30 minutes or more in 3 games this year - TN Martin, Ohio State, Arizona State - he averaged 15.65ppg in those games.  Personally, I'd prefer to take 10 more ppg and a few more turnovers...from a much more talented basketball player - Not to mention get a sophomore more playing time and experience.

Lastly, I look at this list and see we have 7 players in the Top 52 on this list.  According to this data/list MU team isn't short of talent to be able to win at a much higher level than it has shown thus far.  So what's the rub?  Are we underperforming our talent?  For all the Steve Lavin can't coach jokes, he only has 5 guys in Top 52.  Butler?  5 players in Top 52.  Georgetown?  6 players.  Xavier?  6 players.  Nova 7 players.  Providence?  4 players.

This is amazing. In the first paragraph, you try discredit the statistics, and then in your 3rd paragraph, you use the SAME statistics to prove that MU should be better.

Bravo, dude.

Brilliant trolling.

[NersEllenson]

This is amazing. In the first paragraph, you try discredit the statistics, and then in your 3rd paragraph, you use the SAME statistics to prove that MU should be better.

Bravo, dude.

Brilliant trolling.

Exactly.  Much the same how people tried to discredit us being predicted to win the Big East last season, and now trying to use preseason predictions for this year to justify our record.  See how that works Ammo?

But yes, if we are going to hold Bama's work as the Gospel, and if we can all go along with the data, including Derrick is the 27th best player in the conference and just a sliver behind Billy Garrett at DePaul, then what is the rub for why MU is performing subpar relative to its talent mesaured against the conference?  Why should we expect to only win 14 games for the season, and 5 or 6 Big East games as so many of the doom and gloom posters here try to suggest (to largely take blame off of both Derrick and Wojo)?  Just asking.

[Lennys Tap]

Look at it this way - a guy like JJJ would average 15.5 points per 40 minutes.  Though he may turn the ball over more, he'd essentially have to turn it over 4 more times per game, and ALL 4 of those turnovers lead to made 2 point FGs (8 points) to be at a break even point with a ball protector like Derrick based on points per 40/ppg projections.    

WTF? How many points per 40 minutes a guy scores is almost meaningless. JJJ is an incredibly inefficient offensive player and that is only due in part to his alarming TO rate. He also misses a ton of shots while getting to that 15.5 per 40. His Ortg is what, 86? Worst on the team by far. He's shooting 16% on 3s, 0% in conference, (0-12) but he keeps chucking. IF he would stop shooting 3s altogether he'd be a contributor but until then he'll remain our worst option on the perimeter.

[Lennys Tap]

But yes, if we are going to hold Bama's work as the Gospel, and if we can all go along with the data, including Derrick is the 27th best player in the conference and just a sliver behind Billy Garrett at DePaul, then what is the rub for why MU is performing subpar relative to its talent mesaured against the conference?  Why should we expect to only win 14 games for the season, and 5 or 6 Big East games as so many of the doom and gloom posters here try to suggest (to largely take blame off of both Derrick and Wojo)?  Just asking.

Here's why - the 50th best player isn't a difference maker. The top 25 are - in effect, they're the first, second, third, fourth and fifth all conference teams. Villanova has 6 in the top 25. Butler has 5, Xavier 4. Georgetown, St John's and Seton Hall have 3. Providence has 2. Marquette has 1, DePaul and Creighton have 0. DePaul is certainly outperforming their talent - so far. We're right about where we should be.

[tower912]

The 50th best player is the equivalent of the worst starter on the worst team.   So,  MU has:
 One 2nd team BE player
 Two 6th team BE player
  One 9th team
   One 10th team  (the worst starter on the worst team)
  Two 11th team
   One 13th team

One over 6'7.   

MU is who I thought they were. 

[Lennys Tap]

As for Florida - you make a good case.  A few things I'd say:  Billy Donovan has lots of skins on the wall - to call into question his coaching is quite a bit different than to call into question Wojo's in his first year.  



 

Buzz is no Billy Donovan but he had a lot of skins on the wall too. That didn't stop your outrageous claims of incompetence and/or outright tanking last year.

[brewcity77]

The 50th best player is the equivalent of the worst starter on the worst team.   

Yeah, just look at the end of the top-100. Ismael Sanogo for Seton Hall cracks the top-100. He has more DNPs (6) than games in which he's played more than 5 minutes (5). If you're looking at guys that are top-tier in the conference, you're looking at the top-15. Once you get past those guys you are on to the mid-level starters.

[Lennys Tap]

The 50th best player is the equivalent of the worst starter on the worst team.   

Exactly. According to the list, we have one good starter, two average starters and 4 good bench players relative to our competition - IOW, not enough talent.

[NersEllenson]

Buzz is no Billy Donovan but he had a lot of skins on the wall too. That didn't stop your outrageous claims of incompetence and/or outright tanking last year.

The point being made by TAMU was for this season, and the relative inexperience of our roster and Florida's.  Both rosters having young, Top 100 talent.  Both having similar records.  Last season, wasn't applicable. 

But, while we are at it, as Bama pointed out, last season Derrick actually had a NEGATIVE value ADD - he's improved a lot over last year.  Yet what did Buzz do?  Played him MORE minutes than any other player on the team.  And decided to pair him with a guy like Jake Thomas for 30+ minutes a game.  LOL.  And we have people here blaming Davante and Jamil for why last season went wrong.  WTF were they supposed to do with that backcourt pairing?

[NersEllenson]

WTF? How many points per 40 minutes a guy scores is almost meaningless. JJJ is an incredibly inefficient offensive player and that is only due in part to his alarming TO rate. He also misses a ton of shots while getting to that 15.5 per 40. His Ortg is what, 86? Worst on the team by far. He's shooting 16% on 3s, 0% in conference, (0-12) but he keeps chucking. IF he would stop shooting 3s altogether he'd be a contributor but until then he'll remain our worst option on the perimeter.

You like the players on this list?
At least 24% of possessions used
Rank   Player   Team   Ht   Wt   Yr   ORtg
1   Sterling Gibbs   Seton Hall   6-2   185   Jr            118.9 (24.4)
2   LaDontae Henton   Providence   6-6   215   Sr            113.6 (26.9)
3   Joshua Smith   Georgetown   6-10   350   Sr   113.2 (28.8)
4   D'Angelo Harrison   St. John's   6-4   202   Sr   112.1 (25.4)
5   Myke Henry   DePaul   6-6   228   Jr   104.3 (25.0)
6   Kris Dunn   Providence   6-3   205   So           101.4 (30.3)
7   Roosevelt Jones   Butler   6-4   227   Jr   100.2 (25.5)
8   Rysheed Jordan   St. John's   6-4   193   So   92.0 (28.9)
9   Devin Brooks   Creighton   6-2   175   Sr   90.4 (26.1)
10   JaJuan Johnson   Marquette   6-5   185   So   89.4 (25.3)

So, if you want to get all caught up in O-Rating - Kris Dunn is a worse player than Derrick Wilson.  So is Roosevelt Jones.  Where do those guys rank on Bama's list of Big EAst players?

JJJ is an AGGRESSIVE player - I look at that Top 10 list in the Big East above and see a lot of players I like.  Yes JJJ needs to improve, yet like I said all of last year you have to give a guy consistent playing time and run to know what he really "is."  JJJ has gotten 7 games this season of 25+ minutes.  His O-Rating in those games 98.  Is it great?  No, but it is much better than 89.

Meanwhile Derrick Wilson has ONLY 3 games of less than 25 minutes.  His average O Rating in those games??  67

But I know, all the guys here who have never played the game on much of any level will ridicule my statement that you need long runs of playing time to reflect what you truly are as a player.  To draw conclusions off of a guy playing scattered DNP's, to 10 minutes to 17 minutes, comprised of 3 or 4 different stints of action - you just can't draw any relevant conclusions from that type of playing time.

[esotericmindguy]

Meanwhile Derrick Wilson has ONLY 3 games of less than 25 minutes.  His average O Rating in those games??  67

But I know, all the guys here who have never played the game on much of any level will ridicule my statement that you need long runs of playing time to reflect what you truly are as a player.  To draw conclusions off of a guy playing scattered DNP's, to 10 minutes to 17 minutes, comprised of 3 or 4 different stints of action - you just can't draw any relevant conclusions from that type of playing time.

I think speaks to Wojo being a good game coach. Sits Derrick when he's inefficient. That didn't seem to happen last year, but maybe my memory is slanted.

[jesmu84]

Yes JJJ needs to improve, yet like I said all of last year you have to give a guy consistent playing time and run to know what he really "is."

Question: Say you have a team that is successful/winning with 4/5 starters being upperclassmen. But you also have a bunch of top 100 underclassmen talent sitting on the bench. As you've said, you need to give guys consistent playing time/run to figure out what they are. So, when do these underclassmen get "found out"? Your team is clearly successful currently, so you aren't going to bench the current starters just to find out about the underclassmen.

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

I think speaks to Wojo being a good game coach. Sits Derrick when he's inefficient. That didn't seem to happen last year, but maybe my memory is slanted.

I don't have any stats, but my eyes tell me that Wojo is willing to ride the hot hand inside of any given game.

We've seen Sandy Cohen play well, and get a bunch of minutes. Steve Taylor was good against SJU, so he got a lot of minutes. etc. etc.

So, it's likely that all of MU's players have their worst offensive numbers when they play the least amount of minutes. When they have good nights, Wojo gives them more minutes.

[brewcity77]

I think speaks to Wojo being a good game coach. Sits Derrick when he's inefficient. That didn't seem to happen last year, but maybe my memory is slanted.

So he plays less when he's ineffective and more when he's effective, and somehow that's a bad thing?

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

That's a fine way to look at it - either way - we aren't under talented relative to the league.  Nor should we expect to finish anything less than 9-9 given the level of our talent.

As for Florida - you make a good case.  A few things I'd say:  Billy Donovan has lots of skins on the wall - to call into question his coaching is quite a bit different than to call into question Wojo's in his first year.  

Strength of schedule.  Pomeroy ranks Florida 37, despite their 10-9 record that matches Marquette. We are 92.  Next.

 

Again, you misunderstand value add. You can't look at this stat and say "Derrick Wilson is ranked above Javaughn Pinkston he must be the better player." All it say is that Derrick is more valuable to his team. If you put Derrick Wilson on Villanova, he'd probably have a ranking in the 90s. This is really only useful when comparing within a single team.

I don't bring up the Florida example because you question Wojo. Question away, he's a first year coach. I brought up the Florida example because of your claim that 7 top 100 players = a tournament team. It is true that Florida has a greater strength of schedule. They also only have one win over a top 100 opponent (#66 Yale). But Florida has 8 top 100 players, 4 players who were ranked higher than our top player, 2 consensus top 10 players, 6 players taller than Steve Taylor, a true PG who was ranked #7 in the country as a recruit, a well established HOF coach, no transfers/injuries/off the court issues, and 13 filled scholarships. Don't you think that makes up for the difference in Strength of Schedule?

When making expectations for a team, you shouldn't look at how many top 100 players they have (unless they are freshmen). You look at what they are losing, what they are gaining, and what kind of production they got from the players who remain from the previous season. The expectations for this year's team should have been to miss the NIT based on the standard. Has Wojo been perfect? Nope. Made a lot of mistakes. Is the team over-performing despite those mistakes? Yep.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

You like the players on this list?
At least 24% of possessions used
Rank   Player   Team   Ht   Wt   Yr   ORtg
1   Sterling Gibbs   Seton Hall   6-2   185   Jr            118.9 (24.4)
2   LaDontae Henton   Providence   6-6   215   Sr            113.6 (26.9)
3   Joshua Smith   Georgetown   6-10   350   Sr   113.2 (28.8)
4   D'Angelo Harrison   St. John's   6-4   202   Sr   112.1 (25.4)
5   Myke Henry   DePaul   6-6   228   Jr   104.3 (25.0)
6   Kris Dunn   Providence   6-3   205   So           101.4 (30.3)
7   Roosevelt Jones   Butler   6-4   227   Jr   100.2 (25.5)
8   Rysheed Jordan   St. John's   6-4   193   So   92.0 (28.9)
9   Devin Brooks   Creighton   6-2   175   Sr   90.4 (26.1)
10   JaJuan Johnson   Marquette   6-5   185   So   89.4 (25.3)

So, if you want to get all caught up in O-Rating - Kris Dunn is a worse player than Derrick Wilson.  So is Roosevelt Jones.  Where do those guys rank on Bama's list of Big EAst players?

JJJ is an AGGRESSIVE player - I look at that Top 10 list in the Big East above and see a lot of players I like.  Yes JJJ needs to improve, yet like I said all of last year you have to give a guy consistent playing time and run to know what he really "is."  JJJ has gotten 7 games this season of 25+ minutes.  His O-Rating in those games 98.  Is it great?  No, but it is much better than 89.

Meanwhile Derrick Wilson has ONLY 3 games of less than 25 minutes.  His average O Rating in those games??  67

But I know, all the guys here who have never played the game on much of any level will ridicule my statement that you need long runs of playing time to reflect what you truly are as a player.  To draw conclusions off of a guy playing scattered DNP's, to 10 minutes to 17 minutes, comprised of 3 or 4 different stints of action - you just can't draw any relevant conclusions from that type of playing time.

Usage does not equal good. All usage means is that the players shoots and turns the ball over a ton.

High Usage + High Efficiency = All Star
Low Usage + High Efficiency = Solid role player
Low Usage + Low Efficiency = Bench Player
High Usage + Low Efficiency = Disaster

Guess which one JjJ is at this point?

[NersEllenson]

I don't have any stats, but my eyes tell me that Wojo is willing to ride the hot hand inside of any given game.

We've seen Sandy Cohen play well, and get a bunch of minutes. Steve Taylor was good against SJU, so he got a lot of minutes. etc. etc.

So, it's likely that all of MU's players have their worst offensive numbers when they play the least amount of minutes. When they have good nights, Wojo gives them more minutes.

LOL - Except Duane Wilson at crunch and winning time against Georgetown.   

[NersEllenson]

Question: Say you have a team that is successful/winning with 4/5 starters being upperclassmen. But you also have a bunch of top 100 underclassmen talent sitting on the bench. As you've said, you need to give guys consistent playing time/run to figure out what they are. So, when do these underclassmen get "found out"? Your team is clearly successful currently, so you aren't going to bench the current starters just to find out about the underclassmen.

That's the point - the need to find out what you have in the Top 100 underclassmen isn't nearly as critical - if your upperclassmen are performing well and you are winning games at a respectable clip.

Furthermore, it is A LOT more tolerable as a talented player to sit on the bench behind an effective guy, on a winning team - than it is to sit behind a clearly overmatched upperclassmen on a losing/.500 team.

Now, in this case, with this team at this stage - with a roster of only 8 guys - it becomes even more suspect to bench a player/play a guy 12-15 minutes per game that was a Top 30-40 recruit just two years ago.

[Lennys Tap]

You like the players on this list?
At least 24% of possessions used
Rank   Player   Team   Ht   Wt   Yr   ORtg
1   Sterling Gibbs   Seton Hall   6-2   185   Jr            118.9 (24.4)
2   LaDontae Henton   Providence   6-6   215   Sr            113.6 (26.9)
3   Joshua Smith   Georgetown   6-10   350   Sr   113.2 (28.8)
4   D'Angelo Harrison   St. John's   6-4   202   Sr   112.1 (25.4)
5   Myke Henry   DePaul   6-6   228   Jr   104.3 (25.0)
6   Kris Dunn   Providence   6-3   205   So           101.4 (30.3)
7   Roosevelt Jones   Butler   6-4   227   Jr   100.2 (25.5)
8   Rysheed Jordan   St. John's   6-4   193   So   92.0 (28.9)
9   Devin Brooks   Creighton   6-2   175   Sr   90.4 (26.1)
10   JaJuan Johnson   Marquette   6-5   185   So   89.4 (25.3)

So, if you want to get all caught up in O-Rating - Kris Dunn is a worse player than Derrick Wilson.  So is Roosevelt Jones.  Where do those guys rank on Bama's list of Big EAst players?

JJJ is an AGGRESSIVE player - I look at that Top 10 list in the Big East above and see a lot of players I like.  Yes JJJ needs to improve, yet like I said all of last year you have to give a guy consistent playing time and run to know what he really "is."  JJJ has gotten 7 games this season of 25+ minutes.  His O-Rating in those games 98.  Is it great?  No, but it is much better than 89.

Meanwhile Derrick Wilson has ONLY 3 games of less than 25 minutes.  His average O Rating in those games??  67

But I know, all the guys here who have never played the game on much of any level will ridicule my statement that you need long runs of playing time to reflect what you truly are as a player.  To draw conclusions off of a guy playing scattered DNP's, to 10 minutes to 17 minutes, comprised of 3 or 4 different stints of action - you just can't draw any relevant conclusions from that type of playing time.

JJJ got solid minutes early, actually even started some games. Just like last year, when the competition got tougher his play deteriorated. So he lost minutes. Part of his losing those minutes was Sandy Cohen doing what you think is impossible - playing well enough in short spurts to earn more minutes. JJJ's numbers aren't the worst of our 5 perimeter players because of his lack of minutes. It's the other way around - his minutes have become the fewest of our 5 perimeter players because his numbers are the worst. Want more? Do what Cohen did - play better.

[Lennys Tap]

Usage does not equal good. All usage means is that the players shoots and turns the ball over a ton.

High Usage + High Efficiency = All Star
Low Usage + High Efficiency = Solid role player
Low Usage + Low Efficiency = Bench Player
High Usage + Low Efficiency = Disaster

Guess which one JjJ is at this point?

Footnote me next time - guys in academia get in trouble for plagiarizing. 

[NersEllenson]

JJJ got solid minutes early, actually even started some games. Just like last year, when the competition got tougher his play deteriorated. So he lost minutes. Part of his losing those minutes was Sandy Cohen doing what you think is impossible - playing well enough in short spurts to earn more minutes. JJJ's numbers aren't the worst of our 5 perimeter players because of his lack of minutes. It's the other way around - his minutes have become the fewest of our 5 perimeter players because his numbers are the worst. Want more? Do what Cohen did - play better.

Cohen was a starter to begin the year, FYI.  And JJJ's 3 games over 30 minutes were against TN Martin, Ohio State, and Arizona State.  TN Martin stacks up as our 6th best win of the year after Prov, Arizona State, Tennessee, Georgia Tech, Creighton.

How do you explain Derrick's 67 O-Rating in games he played less than 25?  Ironically - We are talking TN Martin, Ohio State, and Arizona State  -the three games JJJ's increased to over 30.  So, Derrick's minutes get reduced in those games, and he turns in a 67 O Rating, meanwhile JJJ's minutes are increased in those games and he turns in a 98 O Rating - a 10 point improvement - where as Derrick regresses 36 points in O-Rating from his season clip of 103. 

[jesmu84]

That's the point - the need to find out what you have in the Top 100 underclassmen isn't nearly as critical - if your upperclassmen are performing well and you are winning games at a respectable clip.

Furthermore, it is A LOT more tolerable as a talented player to sit on the bench behind an effective guy, on a winning team - than it is to sit behind a clearly overmatched upperclassmen on a losing/.500 team.

Now, in this case, with this team at this stage - with a roster of only 8 guys - it becomes even more suspect to bench a player/play a guy 12-15 minutes per game that was a Top 30-40 recruit just two years ago.

So, underclassmen can develop on the bench/in practice. You don't HAVE to find out what they are in games. Your perspective is more one of frustration to those sitting while a team doesn't win games. That I can understand/agree with. But the two points can be spoken of seperately.

[NersEllenson]

So, underclassmen can develop on the bench/in practice. You don't HAVE to find out what they are in games. Your perspective is more one of frustration to those sitting while a team doesn't win games. That I can understand/agree with. But the two points can be spoken of seperately.

There is no substitute for game experience.  Everything ticks just a bit faster in games.  Playing in front of friends, family, fellow students - all gives an added element of juice for a player.

Most players at this level really enhance their skills in the offseason.  Certainly some skill building occurs during practice, yet not nearly what takes place in the offseason.

And yes, my frustration and issue with highly thought of underclassmen riding the bench, stems mostly from it occurring on a losing/.500 type of team.  I do feel all of Deonte, JJJ and John could have benefitted last year from playing more minutes carrying that forward to this year.    All three of those guys would have had a lot more data to know where the holes in their games were when it mattered the most - games.

[Lennys Tap]

How do you explain Derrick's 67 O-Rating in games he played less than 25?  Ironically - We are talking TN Martin, Ohio State, and Arizona State  -the three games JJJ's increased to over 30.  So, Derrick's minutes get reduced in those games, and he turns in a 67 O Rating, meanwhile JJJ's minutes are increased in those games and he turns in a 98 O Rating - a 10 point improvement - where as Derrick regresses 36 points in O-Rating from his season clip of 103. 

Very easily. Derrick's O-rating didn't drop because Wojo cut his minutes. Wojo cut his minutes because he was playing badly, even worse than JJJ normally does. And JJJ's O-rating didn't go up because he got some of those available minutes. He got some of those minutes because he was playing better than usual in his normal minutes. Play crappy, minutes shrink, play better, minutes increase makes infinitely more sense than more minutes make guys who are playing lousy guys who play well.

Your concept that a .500 team can't get any worse by benching the guys who have earned PT in favor of the guys who haven't strikes me as wrongheaded in any sport. It's an affront to logic. That renders your experience playing the game beside the point, IMO. You have a passion for MU, you know the game and you're a good guy. But when Buzz, Autry, Wojo, Carrawell, Diener, etc., are on one side of a basketball argument and you, Texas Western, Willie and Mojo are on the other I think you should at least consider the possibility that those guys aren't total idiots. That doesn't mean you always have to agree. I disagree with "experts" on a regular basis - presidents, movie reviewers, my teachers, coaches, you name it. But I don't think that they and those who might agree with them are fools. I don't think you do either.

[Lennys Tap]

And yes, my frustration and issue with highly thought of underclassmen riding the bench, stems mostly from it occurring on a losing/.500 type of team.  I do feel all of Deonte, JJJ and John could have benefitted last year from playing more minutes carrying that forward to this year.    All three of those guys would have had a lot more data to know where the holes in their games were when it mattered the most - games.

But when March rolled around last year we weren't a losing/.500 team. We were 17-11 (.607) and 9-6 (.600) in the Big East. Whether you want to admit it or not, we still had a shot at the NCAA tournament. We lost 3 OT regular season games and a heartbreaker in the Big East tournament to finish 17-15, but we could have just as easily been 21-11 and playing in the Big East semis. In hindsight I guess we could have thrown in the towel and played the freshmen more earlier but I liked the fact that we were still trying to win every game.

[g0lden3agle]

Cohen was a starter to begin the year, FYI.  And JJJ's 3 games over 30 minutes were against TN Martin, Ohio State, and Arizona State.  TN Martin stacks up as our 6th best win of the year after Prov, Arizona State, Tennessee, Georgia Tech, Creighton.

How do you explain Derrick's 67 O-Rating in games he played less than 25?  Ironically - We are talking TN Martin, Ohio State, and Arizona State  -the three games JJJ's increased to over 30.  So, Derrick's minutes get reduced in those games, and he turns in a 67 O Rating, meanwhile JJJ's minutes are increased in those games and he turns in a 98 O Rating - a 10 point improvement - where as Derrick regresses 36 points in O-Rating from his season clip of 103. 

Can you help me understand how one's O rating depends on minutes played, as opposed to their minutes played being driven by their O rating?  I think you're trying to connect dots that aren't there.  Derrick is playing bad, he gets the bench.  JJJ seized the most of those extra minutes he got.  There isn't much else to it than that.

[NersEllenson]

Very easily. Derrick's O-rating didn't drop because Wojo cut his minutes. Wojo cut his minutes because he was playing badly, even worse than JJJ normally does. And JJJ's O-rating didn't go up because he got some of those available minutes. He got some of those minutes because he was playing better than usual in his normal minutes. Play crappy, minutes shrink, play better, minutes increase makes infinitely more sense than more minutes make guys who are playing lousy guys who play well.

Your concept that a .500 team can't get any worse by benching the guys who have earned PT in favor of the guys who haven't strikes me as wrongheaded in any sport. It's an affront to logic. That renders your experience playing the game beside the point, IMO. You have a passion for MU, you know the game and you're a good guy. But when Buzz, Autry, Wojo, Carrawell, Diener, etc., are on one side of a basketball argument and you, Texas Western, Willie and Mojo are on the other I think you should at least consider the possibility that those guys aren't total idiots. That doesn't mean you always have to agree. I disagree with "experts" on a regular basis - presidents, movie reviewers, my teachers, coaches, you name it. But I don't think that they and those who might agree with them are fools. I don't think you do either.

Lenny - I respect you and your posts, though we disagreed a lot in the last year.  The buck stops with the head coach - assistants may want/think other guys should be getting more minutes.  Certainly a level headed head coach would value the input of his assistants, yet ultimately the head coach is their meal ticket.  How much do you want to but heads with your boss?  Last season Wainwright wouldn't go to Buzz about Todd playing more - he told Todd to go to Buzz and ask for more time, to be allowed to play through his mistakes.

Todd as a player didn't all of a sudden become night and day better the last 10 games of the season.  What changed is Buzz let him play through his mistakes early, not bench him.  Todd eventually got into a good rhythm and as is the case for most players, once you get good and consistent minutes your performance tends to get more consistent, and talent maximized.

But when March rolled around last year we weren't a losing/.500 team. We were 17-11 (.607) and 9-6 (.600) in the Big East. Whether you want to admit it or not, we still had a shot at the NCAA tournament. We lost 3 OT regular season games and a heartbreaker in the Big East tournament to finish 17-15, but we could have just as easily been 21-11 and playing in the Big East semis. In hindsight I guess we could have thrown in the towel and played the freshmen more earlier but I liked the fact that we were still trying to win every game.

I can also appreciate your above point Lenny.  You automatically assume the freshman were worse than the vets - and that is a HUGE stretch/leap to make when you are talking about Burton versus Juan last season.  And Derrick, of last year - as Value Add said - actually had a NEGATIVE value add.

It was plain as day to most anyone that if Buzz continued to roll out Derrick and Jake for 30+ minutes per game, the team didn't stand a snowballs chance in hell to be a winner - even if it had some close losses.  In my view, the fact that we had so many closes losses was incredible given Buzz's insistence on playing 4 on 5 all of last year.

[bamamarquettefan]

Can you help me understand how one's O rating depends on minutes played, as opposed to their minutes played being driven by their O rating?  I think you're trying to connect dots that aren't there.  Derrick is playing bad, he gets the bench.  JJJ seized the most of those extra minutes he got.  There isn't much else to it than that.

The surprising thing about the numbers he is citing is that normally a player's o-rating drops the more minutes he plays and the more he has to be the man with the ball (possessions) because it encourages double teams etc. In fact, the 2003 book "Basketball on Paper" that all this is based on actually showed that even Kobe became a below average player in games in which he had to do all the shooting.

I understand what you are saying too - that a player would logically get more minutes when he is having a good game and vice versa - which does explain above - but over the course of the season they actually do better when the load isn't all on them.

I am note sure what Duane and Matt had for offensive ratings at the end of regulation, but it had to be through the roof at that point before they were turning it over and missing shots in OT with no gas in the tank.

[bamamarquettefan]

Usage does not equal good. All usage means is that the players shoots and turns the ball over a ton.

High Usage + High Efficiency = All Star
Low Usage + High Efficiency = Solid role player
Low Usage + Low Efficiency = Bench Player
High Usage + Low Efficiency = Disaster

Guess which one JjJ is at this point?

True on offense - BUT he is our top steals guy (3.5% of opposing trips) and is one of the rate players in the country who is in the top 4% in the country in both steals AND avoiding fouling while doing it. Our defense still relies on steals (12th in the country as a team).

Our defense was ranked No. 1 in Big East play during those first three games with him playing 21 minutes a game, and has been way below conference average in the last four games with him playing only 10 minutes a game. Not denying the terrible offense, but the two things we do well on defense are steal the ball and contest 3 pointers, and I do think JJJ is a big asset on the defensive end.

[bamamarquettefan]

Again, you misunderstand value add. You can't look at this stat and say "Derrick Wilson is ranked above Javaughn Pinkston he must be the better player." All it say is that Derrick is more valuable to his team. If you put Derrick Wilson on Villanova, he'd probably have a ranking in the 90s. This is really only useful when comparing within a single team.

Good comments, but I would say players who move between teams seem to have about the same Value Add (once you adjust for the regular adjustment for years). Sure, it could be that Derrick would just never get in a game if on Nova's roster and thus the Value Add would go away, but normally what happens when a player moves from a team like Marquette to a team like Villanova is that their minutes go down BUT their per minute Value goes up because they only take the easiest shots and get much less defensive attention too. We are actually comparing his value to what we believe and average replacement player IN THE COUNTRY would do in his place rather than the actual 9th man on his team, so we are using a standard 9th man in the country rather than seeing how much better Derrick is than one of the Mache twins vs. if he played for Nova and Darryl Reynolds (11 of 16 shooting with 23 rebounds this year) were getting his minutes. I know he is a forward, but just to give an example.

[bamamarquettefan]

You like the players on this list?
At least 24% of possessions used

So, if you want to get all caught up in O-Rating - Kris Dunn is a worse player than Derrick Wilson.  So is Roosevelt Jones.  Where do those guys rank on Bama's list of Big EAst players?

Yes, you are right on and this was the exact reason I first contacted Ken Pomeroy about my idea for Value Add in 2011. Keep in mind that Kemba Walker had an offensive rating of 116.7, which meant he was not one of the top 100 players in the country the year of the title run. What Value Add says is you are getting that 116.7 instead of a low 90s rating from Kemba for 92.4 percent of all minutes UConn plays with him taking 32.9 percent of the team's shot while on the court and handling the ball even more. A guy can put up a 116.7 by coming in for a few minutes a game and having a good three-point percentage and still have a very low Value Add, but in Value Add Kemba was ranked #2 in the country.

I mean how often did you see Kemba outplayed? Oh yeah, Kemba did miss 17 shots and turned it over when Jimmy F-ing Butler went into UConn's gym to upset the Huskies for the second time in two years, but I mean against all the OTHER players Kemba was almost unstoppable.

[bamamarquettefan]

I don't care what these cute numbers say ... or as valuable as players like Pinkston...

Here are the cute numbers on your man Pinkston who has been so much more valuable than Derrick this year. His field goal percentage has dropped from 52% to 42% this season - and that's without a single three-point shot. He is turning the ball over 50% more often than he did last year.

All irrelevant to a team in the Top 10?

How about the two times Villanova needed him - their two losses.

Let's see, 0 for 2 from the floor with 6 turnovers against Georgetown this year. If Villanova hadn't had to play 4 on 5 in that game then maybe it wouldn't have gotten out of hand.

How about the other loss - Seton Hall? - 1 for 7 but a much better 50% from the line at 5 for 10 with 3 turnovers.

You don't think Pinkston has COST Nova points in those games.

The problem is you are REMEMBERING how good Pinkston was last year and you are looking at a skill set that COULD make him good down the stretch. However, I'd have to say all those missed shots and turnovers are not cute numbers.

Value Add measures how many points a player has gained AND LOST for his team this year, and Pinkston has played no where near as he did last year while Derrick has improved by a huge margin. Yes, last year Pinkston was a stud and ranked as the 5th best player in the Big East in Value Add (search 2014 and BE after clicking here http://valueaddbasketball.com/ballall.html). This year he has been much worse to date and has NOT been one of the best 25 players in the conference. The numbers work fine, you just aren't watching enough games!

[bamamarquettefan]

Hey, thanks all for the comments even those who disagree with me on stuff. I know sometimes my stuff is too much in the weeds and not as fun as some of the clever minds on MUScoop, but after an intense day of work it was great to see this post stirred a little interest. It made my day to see everyone weighing in - pro or con on me or JJJ or whoever.

Go Warriors!

[79Warrior]

Buzz is no Billy Donovan but he had a lot of skins on the wall too. That didn't stop your outrageous claims of incompetence and/or outright tanking last year.

Lenny, you have to stop responding to the dope.

[WarriorInNYC]

Hey, thanks all for the comments even those who disagree with me on stuff. I know sometimes my stuff is too much in the weeds and not as fun as some of the clever minds on MUScoop, but after an intense day of work it was great to see this post stirred a little interest. It made my day to see everyone weighing in - pro or con on me or JJJ or whoever.

Go Warriors!

bama, all of this is awesome.  Thanks for all the sharing!

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Very easily. Derrick's O-rating didn't drop because Wojo cut his minutes.

It's a strange bit of reasoning that he has repeated endlessly.  In his mind, you give a kid minutes then they magically perform better, whereas everyone else, including our coaches believe that when you perform better you earn more minutes.

[Lennys Tap]

Lenny - I respect you and your posts, though we disagreed a lot in the last year.  The buck stops with the head coach - assistants may want/think other guys should be getting more minutes.  Certainly a level headed head coach would value the input of his assistants, yet ultimately the head coach is their meal ticket.  How much do you want to but heads with your boss?  Last season Wainwright wouldn't go to Buzz about Todd playing more - he told Todd to go to Buzz and ask for more time, to be allowed to play through his mistakes.

I don't doubt for a minute that Wainwright went to Todd and gave him a boost. Told him he was player, told him to keep his head up, be aggressive. Told him to go to Buzz and tell him he wanted and deserved more time. And when Todd approached Buzz, I'm sure Buzz said "OK, I know what you want, here's what I want you to do. Prove it".

Pretty typical. Jerry was the nice guy assistant getting a spark from a player with some encouragement. Then Buzz lit the fire with his challenge. I'd be shocked if it wasn't Buzz's plan  from the beginning.

[bamamarquettefan]

bama, all of this is awesome.  Thanks for all the sharing!

Thank you! Well, looks like I may need to do a meeting in NYC in March so it just may be around Big East tournament time. Maybe I will see you there WarriorInNYC!

[Lennys Tap]

Thank you! Well, looks like I may need to do a meeting in NYC in March so it just may be around Big East tournament time. Maybe I will see you there WarriorInNYC!

This is really great stuff, bama! Thanks and continued success - you make your fellow MU alums proud.

[bamamarquettefan]

I don't care what these cute numbers say, (Derrick) not even on the same stratosphere as the PGs listed (note I said this very clearly in the article) or as valuable as players like Pinkston or Derosiers. ... Algorithm needs to be adjusted.

As frustrating as this is to watch the game - if your case for the algorithm needing to be changed is how clearly superior Pinkston is your case is really, really weak or you just haven't him this season. With Fischer on the bench he obviously should be destroying us inside. Instead his first basket after a couple of misses comes because he is there for a layup when a teammate air balls as shot. The guy has great talent and I have nothing against him - and still have him in the top 12% of all players, but he has been the one player who has backtracked badly this season so just a really strange example you would play as an ace card.

I just checked and his 42.3% eFG% (not counting his 1 of 3 in the first half) means he is the 1865th best shooter of the 2230 players to play at least 40% of their minutes. I mean, I still have him in the top 12% for the other things he does - but at some point you can't miss all your shots and say you are having an elite season.

[bamamarquettefan]

and obviously nothing to be happy about when getting run off the court, but I do hate to have Derrick's great improvement lost just because it was a lost season. Playing with a team that obviously could not hit anything night, includuing Fischer getting rejected by a smaller guy on a dunk on what looked like it would be an obvious assist for Derrick - Derrick still has a 6/2 assist to turnover rate running the point against a top 25 team in steals. My question would be how many assists would Derrick have if he and Pinkston switched teams and Derrick was passing to Pinkston's 5 teammates with 200+ points this season.

Derrick was definitely a big problem last year, but he has really been good this year.

On the flip side, how well would Pinkston score if he was on Marquette and getting double teams instead of having FIVE teammates with over 200 points? Today he had two wide open layups off a great pass when Fischer lost him and on his teammates airball. Even with those two free layups he hit only one other shot to go 3 for 8 despite the huge size advantage.

Hopefully this will be like 1991 - the losing record before the big run that gets us back to the Sweet 16, but I stand by the basic calculation that Pinkston has gone from STAR to just GOOD this season, and Derrick has gone from TERRIBLE to GOOD, and this year he is one of the players keeping MU close this season and not a big problem like he was last year.

[tower912]

Most of us see that and agree.   There will be dissenters, however.......

[CTWarrior]

I think Derrick wastes an inordinate amount of time every possession just dribbling around with no real purpose.  He doesn't turn it over, but he doesn't pressure the defense, either.  He shortens our shot clock and forces us to take bad shots because we can only run one or two sets.  Others players' ratings may pay for that because we are forced to take bad shots to avoid shot clock violations. He is not nearly as bad this season as last in this regard, but still does it a lot.

Now, that may not be Derrick.  It may be an underdog strategy imposed by Wojo to shorten the game.  If that's the case, Derrick's the perfect guy to run it because he won't turn it over, and it's actually hard not to turn the ball over when you're dribbling around not attacking because the defense can take chances.   

All of that said, he is the best we've got and has to play.  Love his defense and his rebounding.  His tentative nature with the ball is just not enjoyable to watch, but that doesn't make him less effective than a guy who is attcking and making more good plays and maybe a lot more bad ones.   

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Derrick still has a 6/2 assist to turnover rate running the point against a top 25 team in steals.

And the first of those two turnovers occurred when JJJ threw it to him while he was standing out of bounds.

[NersEllenson]

And the first of those two turnovers occurred when JJJ threw it to him while he was standing out of bounds.

That doesn't go as a turnover on Derrick FYI. 

That 3:1 assist to turnover ratio is nice.  However I sure wish the opposition PG's line wasn't such that it was a 9:1 scoring differential.  Granted it usually only is a 3:1 disparity in point production. Yet still, pretty hard to win games when you have that type of disparity taking place at a critical position on the floor.

Sorry, I'll try not to use stats to support my position.

[g0lden3agle]

That doesn't go as a turnover on Derrick FYI. 

That 3:1 assist to turnover ratio is nice.  However I sure wish the opposition PG's line wasn't such that it was a 9:1 scoring differential.  Granted it usually only is a 3:1 disparity in point production. Yet still, pretty hard to win games when you have that type of disparity taking place at a critical position on the floor.

Sorry, I'll try not to use stats to support my position.

Lol. Resorting to "ratio of points Derrick scored to points other teams starting PG scored". When we're running a zone.

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

That doesn't go as a turnover on Derrick FYI. 

That 3:1 assist to turnover ratio is nice.  However I sure wish the opposition PG's line wasn't such that it was a 9:1 scoring differential.  Granted it usually only is a 3:1 disparity in point production. Yet still, pretty hard to win games when you have that type of disparity taking place at a critical position on the floor.

Sorry, I'll try not to use stats to support my position.

Did we just make of a new start, PG scoring differential?

What about Butler? Derrick held Rosevelt jones to 1-12 with 2 pts and 3 rebounds.

Should we calculate PG scoring differential for that one?

[muwarrior97]

Don't take the bait from the Ignored