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Author Topic: [Cracked Sidewalks]9-9 Big East Mark Likely = 4 Top 50 Wins and NCAA Bid  (Read 10328 times)

PGsHeroes32

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks]9-9 Big East Mark Likely = 4 Top 50 Wins and NCAA Bid
« Reply #25 on: December 22, 2014, 01:31:48 PM »
Show me where somebody talked about going 6-10 or 14-4 and I'll give you an answer. I see 9-9, 10-8 etc. With people already prescribing the number of BET wins that will be needed. Nobody knows how that will come out. That's what I'm saying.

I do. 11 wins is a stone cold lock.
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brewcity77

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks]9-9 Big East Mark Likely = 4 Top 50 Wins and NCAA Bid
« Reply #26 on: December 22, 2014, 01:43:11 PM »
Running the Wizard...

17-13 (9-9) would give us an RPI of 60 and SOS of 23. I think we would have to win a game in the Big East Tourney if that was the case. I just can't see 17-14 with a .500 conference record being good enough.

18-12 (10-8) would give us an RPI of 48 and SOS of 23. This would have us squarely on the bubble, with 1 Big East Tourney win being needed to lock us in.

19-11 (11-7) would give us an RPI of 36 and SOS of 23. This would make us a lock heading to New York. Even a questionable loss would keep us in the top-50 RPI. Say we dropped our first game in New York to DePaul, we would be 19-12 with an RPI of 46 and SOS of 31. That's plenty good enough to get in.
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zrjones13

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks]9-9 Big East Mark Likely = 4 Top 50 Wins and NCAA Bid
« Reply #27 on: December 22, 2014, 01:46:45 PM »
If we are 17- 13 based on rpiforecast are expected rpi would be 66.4.  If we have an 18-12 record expected rpi is 52.4.  If you want to go through individual games go here http://www.rpiforecast.com/wizard/Marquette.html

bilsu

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks]9-9 Big East Mark Likely = 4 Top 50 Wins and NCAA Bid
« Reply #28 on: December 22, 2014, 01:55:03 PM »
Running the Wizard...

17-13 (9-9) would give us an RPI of 60 and SOS of 23. I think we would have to win a game in the Big East Tourney if that was the case. I just can't see 17-14 with a .500 conference record being good enough.

18-12 (10-8) would give us an RPI of 48 and SOS of 23. This would have us squarely on the bubble, with 1 Big East Tourney win being needed to lock us in.

19-11 (11-7) would give us an RPI of 36 and SOS of 23. This would make us a lock heading to New York. Even a questionable loss would keep us in the top-50 RPI. Say we dropped our first game in New York to DePaul, we would be 19-12 with an RPI of 46 and SOS of 31. That's plenty good enough to get in.
I find it hard to accept that each additional win will  move us up 12 spots.

mu03eng

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks]9-9 Big East Mark Likely = 4 Top 50 Wins and NCAA Bid
« Reply #29 on: December 22, 2014, 01:55:26 PM »
Running the Wizard...

17-13 (9-9) would give us an RPI of 60 and SOS of 23. I think we would have to win a game in the Big East Tourney if that was the case. I just can't see 17-14 with a .500 conference record being good enough.

18-12 (10-8) would give us an RPI of 48 and SOS of 23. This would have us squarely on the bubble, with 1 Big East Tourney win being needed to lock us in.

19-11 (11-7) would give us an RPI of 36 and SOS of 23. This would make us a lock heading to New York. Even a questionable loss would keep us in the top-50 RPI. Say we dropped our first game in New York to DePaul, we would be 19-12 with an RPI of 46 and SOS of 31. That's plenty good enough to get in.

Like I said, 11-7 gets us in, figuring that out is the easiest part.  How we get to 11-7 with this roster is very very difficult.

I feel comfortable saying we win these games:
@DePaul
Creighton
Seton Hall
@Creighton
St Johns
DePaul

I feel comfortable saying we lose these games:
@Georgetown
@Xavier
@St Johns
@Villanova
Villanova
@Butler

That's 6-6, we'd have to go 5-1 in the "toss-ups".  I just don't see it.  Certainly I hope it happens but as thin as this roster is and light on big game experience, I don't think it happens.

I think our ceiling is 10-8 with the floor being 7-11.  I'll be ok with that because I respect the process.
"A Plan? Oh man, I hate plans. That means were gonna have to do stuff. Can't we just have a strategy......or a mission statement."

mu03eng

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks]9-9 Big East Mark Likely = 4 Top 50 Wins and NCAA Bid
« Reply #30 on: December 22, 2014, 01:55:48 PM »
I find it hard to accept that each additional win will  move us up 12 spots.

Welcome to the joy of RPI
"A Plan? Oh man, I hate plans. That means were gonna have to do stuff. Can't we just have a strategy......or a mission statement."

JamilJaeJamailJrJuan

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks]9-9 Big East Mark Likely = 4 Top 50 Wins and NCAA Bid
« Reply #31 on: December 22, 2014, 01:58:01 PM »
Like I said, 11-7 gets us in, figuring that out is the easiest part.  How we get to 11-7 with this roster is very very difficult.

I feel comfortable saying we win these games:
@DePaul
Creighton
Seton Hall
@Creighton
St Johns
DePaul

I feel comfortable saying we lose these games:
@Georgetown
@Xavier
@St Johns
@Villanova
Villanova
@Butler

That's 6-6, we'd have to go 5-1 in the "toss-ups".  I just don't see it.  Certainly I hope it happens but as thin as this roster is and light on big game experience, I don't think it happens.

I think our ceiling is 10-8 with the floor being 7-11.  I'll be ok with that because I respect the process.

I wouldn't lump @ Butler and @ Xavier into the "likely loss" column.  The rest I would agree, but I think MU can beat GT and SJU on the road (they probably won't win all four of these games, but I think they could conceivably go 2-2).  Nova is going to be tough to beat this year.
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PGsHeroes32

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks]9-9 Big East Mark Likely = 4 Top 50 Wins and NCAA Bid
« Reply #32 on: December 22, 2014, 01:59:57 PM »
Like I said, 11-7 gets us in, figuring that out is the easiest part.  How we get to 11-7 with this roster is very very difficult.

I feel comfortable saying we win these games:
@DePaul
Creighton
Seton Hall
@Creighton
St Johns
DePaul

I feel comfortable saying we lose these games:
@Georgetown
@Xavier
@St Johns
@Villanova
Villanova
@Butler

That's 6-6, we'd have to go 5-1 in the "toss-ups".  I just don't see it.  Certainly I hope it happens but as thin as this roster is and light on big game experience, I don't think it happens.

I think our ceiling is 10-8 with the floor being 7-11.  I'll be ok with that because I respect the process.

Really? You see home vs St. Johns as more comfortable then Gtown and X? I think SJU is the toughest to match up with.

Nova is the only team that scares me. At home I am not worried about any of them but NOva. But that still means a 7-1 home record(if Nova is a loss) which is hard to do. THEN have to find 4 road wins.

We'll see.
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JamilJaeJamailJrJuan

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks]9-9 Big East Mark Likely = 4 Top 50 Wins and NCAA Bid
« Reply #33 on: December 22, 2014, 02:01:27 PM »
Really? You see home vs St. Johns as more comfortable then Gtown and X? I think SJU is the toughest to match up with.

Nova is the only team that scares me. At home I am not worried about any of them but NOva. But that still means a 7-1 home record(if Nova is a loss) which is hard to do. THEN have to find 4 road wins.

We'll see.

8-1.  Three road wins. 
I would take the Rick SLU program right now.

mu03eng

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks]9-9 Big East Mark Likely = 4 Top 50 Wins and NCAA Bid
« Reply #34 on: December 22, 2014, 02:02:18 PM »
Really? You see home vs St. Johns as more comfortable then Gtown and X? I think SJU is the toughest to match up with.


Physically yes, mentally not so much IMHO.  I factor in Lavin and the park ball StJ tends to play from time to time.
"A Plan? Oh man, I hate plans. That means were gonna have to do stuff. Can't we just have a strategy......or a mission statement."

mu03eng

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks]9-9 Big East Mark Likely = 4 Top 50 Wins and NCAA Bid
« Reply #35 on: December 22, 2014, 02:03:05 PM »
8-1.  Three road wins. 

I'll have what he's having....I just don't see any way that's happening especially with a shallow roster.
"A Plan? Oh man, I hate plans. That means were gonna have to do stuff. Can't we just have a strategy......or a mission statement."

JamilJaeJamailJrJuan

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks]9-9 Big East Mark Likely = 4 Top 50 Wins and NCAA Bid
« Reply #36 on: December 22, 2014, 02:05:14 PM »
I'll have what he's having....I just don't see any way that's happening especially with a shallow roster.

I agree.  I think 7-2 is more likely.  But I think this team can find four road wins.

We all can agree that it'll be a fun ride.  I am certainly more optimistic than I was a week ago.  That said, one key injury and this team is FOOOOKED.
I would take the Rick SLU program right now.

BM1090

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks]9-9 Big East Mark Likely = 4 Top 50 Wins and NCAA Bid
« Reply #37 on: December 22, 2014, 02:36:57 PM »
Again, 11-7 would put our RPI in the low 40s. We'd be in for sure. 10-8 and we probably have work to do in NY. This is obviously assuming we win our next two non con games.

bamamarquettefan

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks]9-9 Big East Mark Likely = 4 Top 50 Wins and NCAA Bid
« Reply #38 on: December 22, 2014, 03:35:41 PM »
I agree and if that is the projected RPI (96) then I think that doesn't get us in. The committee is smart enough to take into account the Fischer factor, but 17 wins and RPI of 96 is not really even that close to the bubble IMHO. If we can get into the conversation as a bubble team (19-20 wins + a few in the BE tourney) then the Fischer factor might help us leapfrog over teams with better RPIs.

sorry left out a key line. The 96 RPI is if we go 7-11 in conference as RPI Forecast picks. They have us at an RPI of 64 if we go 9-9 in conference (assuming these last two non-conference games are wins)
The www.valueaddsports.com analysis of basketball, football and baseball players are intended to neither be too hot or too cold - hundreds immerse themselves in studies of stats not of interest to broader fan bases (too hot), while others still insist on pure observation (too cold).

PGsHeroes32

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks]9-9 Big East Mark Likely = 4 Top 50 Wins and NCAA Bid
« Reply #39 on: December 22, 2014, 03:43:42 PM »
I agree.  I think 7-2 is more likely.  But I think this team can find four road wins.

We all can agree that it'll be a fun ride.  I am certainly more optimistic than I was a week ago.  That said, one key injury and this team is FOOOOKED.

Here's the thing though. 7-2 is still incredibly tough even at home. Nova is very unlikely and DePaul is the only one that you can feel real good about. Rest are certainly doable, but only have room for 1 mess up.

Now on the road. I give us a solid chance in every single one except for Nova. But I can't find many outside of possible DePaul where I favor us to win. So getting 3 more again will be very tough.
Lazar picking up where the BIG 3 left off....

THRILLHO

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks]9-9 Big East Mark Likely = 4 Top 50 Wins and NCAA Bid
« Reply #40 on: December 22, 2014, 03:51:46 PM »
sorry left out a key line. The 96 RPI is if we go 7-11 in conference as RPI Forecast picks. They have us at an RPI of 64 if we go 9-9 in conference (assuming these last two non-conference games are wins)

Thanks Bama, my sense is that 64 is still off the bubble, and that we need to be firmly on it for the Fischer factor to matter. But that is completely made up guess! Might be an interesting post to look at how much leeway teams have gotten in the past with returning players changing the team makeup. Though it must be a very rare exception for a player to make as much of an impact as Luke has so far.

bamamarquettefan

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summary and feedback from Ken Pomeroy
« Reply #41 on: December 22, 2014, 04:08:16 PM »
After reading through everyone's insights, I will concede I probably need to back off one win and say it will take 10-8, 18-12, 52 RPI, 23 SOS to get in.

It sounds like pretty much everyone agrees that 11-7 we are in.

RPI Forecast gives us only a 8% chance of 11-7, and 18% chance of 10-8, but obvious Fischer improves those chances.

On a side note, I did ask Ken Pomeroy about MU slipping from 103rd to 108th after drubbing Alabama A&M. Basically his system now does not reward you much for huge margins against bad teams (which actually is a nice improvement over most systems) and the preseason ratings (where Marquette started 87th) is fading out as more games are played, so the bad performances like Nebraska Omaha now hurt more. In addition, Charlotte leadfrogged us by only losing by 3 at Georgetown etc.

http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Marquette.html

Final Record   Expected RPI   Probability
22-8   23.0   0.01%
21-9   27.3   0.13%
20-10   33.3   0.53%
19-11   42.3   2.26% - Most of Board Agrees we are in
18-12   52.4   5.28% - Some think we are in
17-13   66.4   10.52% - Bama argued we are in, but concedes to back off one win based on collective wisdom of MU board
16-14   80.8   16.62%
15-15   96.4   20.34%
14-16   112.0   19.00%
13-17   128.5   13.52%
12-18   144.8   7.74%
11-19   160.6   2.97%
10-20   176.0   0.91%
9-21   188.0   0.14%
8-22   214.0   0.02%
The www.valueaddsports.com analysis of basketball, football and baseball players are intended to neither be too hot or too cold - hundreds immerse themselves in studies of stats not of interest to broader fan bases (too hot), while others still insist on pure observation (too cold).

chapman

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks]9-9 Big East Mark Likely = 4 Top 50 Wins and NCAA Bid
« Reply #42 on: December 22, 2014, 04:22:25 PM »
Just win them all.

mu03eng

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Re: summary and feedback from Ken Pomeroy
« Reply #43 on: December 22, 2014, 04:32:28 PM »
After reading through everyone's insights, I will concede I probably need to back off one win and say it will take 10-8, 18-12, 52 RPI, 23 SOS to get in.

It sounds like pretty much everyone agrees that 11-7 we are in.

RPI Forecast gives us only a 8% chance of 11-7, and 18% chance of 10-8, but obvious Fischer improves those chances.

On a side note, I did ask Ken Pomeroy about MU slipping from 103rd to 108th after drubbing Alabama A&M. Basically his system now does not reward you much for huge margins against bad teams (which actually is a nice improvement over most systems) and the preseason ratings (where Marquette started 87th) is fading out as more games are played, so the bad performances like Nebraska Omaha now hurt more. In addition, Charlotte leadfrogged us by only losing by 3 at Georgetown etc.

http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Marquette.html

Final Record   Expected RPI   Probability
22-8   23.0   0.01%
21-9   27.3   0.13%
20-10   33.3   0.53%
19-11   42.3   2.26% - Most of Board Agrees we are in
18-12   52.4   5.28% - Some think we are in
17-13   66.4   10.52% - Bama argued we are in, but concedes to back off one win based on collective wisdom of MU board
16-14   80.8   16.62%
15-15   96.4   20.34%
14-16   112.0   19.00%
13-17   128.5   13.52%
12-18   144.8   7.74%
11-19   160.6   2.97%
10-20   176.0   0.91%
9-21   188.0   0.14%
8-22   214.0   0.02%

That's a thing????  Sounds like unicorn juice to me.

 ;D
"A Plan? Oh man, I hate plans. That means were gonna have to do stuff. Can't we just have a strategy......or a mission statement."

bamamarquettefan

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks]9-9 Big East Mark Likely = 4 Top 50 Wins and NCAA Bid
« Reply #44 on: December 22, 2014, 04:34:21 PM »
Hah, a lot of intelligent discussion in this string, and when that happens I have to defer to more and smarter minds! DEMOCRACY RULES
The www.valueaddsports.com analysis of basketball, football and baseball players are intended to neither be too hot or too cold - hundreds immerse themselves in studies of stats not of interest to broader fan bases (too hot), while others still insist on pure observation (too cold).

Jay Bee

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks]9-9 Big East Mark Likely = 4 Top 50 Wins and NCAA Bid
« Reply #45 on: December 22, 2014, 05:55:26 PM »
This article nails it, IMO:

"Eight non-conference wins plus a 10-8 record in conference play would put MU solidly in the mix for an NCAA tournament bid"

http://painttouches.com/2014/12/15/marquette-sees-improvement-in-non-conference-strength-of-schedule/
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JamilJaeJamailJrJuan

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks]9-9 Big East Mark Likely = 4 Top 50 Wins and NCAA Bid
« Reply #46 on: December 22, 2014, 06:09:59 PM »
This article nails it, IMO:

"Eight non-conference wins plus a 10-8 record in conference play would put MU solidly in the mix for an NCAA tournament bid"

http://painttouches.com/2014/12/15/marquette-sees-improvement-in-non-conference-strength-of-schedule/

Well done.
I would take the Rick SLU program right now.

manny31

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks]9-9 Big East Mark Likely = 4 Top 50 Wins and NCAA Bid
« Reply #47 on: December 22, 2014, 06:12:05 PM »

Go 8-1 at home.  Steal 2 on the road besides the opener vs. Depaul.  Easy.
Bang! Done, I like it. Keep it simple right. I will predict 2 NCAA wins the first over a 5 seed and the. We beat the 4 seed to make the S16 these victories will come as no surprise to the Warrior faithful. Ring Out Ahoys.... and pass the koolaid..

JamilJaeJamailJrJuan

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks]9-9 Big East Mark Likely = 4 Top 50 Wins and NCAA Bid
« Reply #48 on: December 22, 2014, 06:31:16 PM »
Bang! Done, I like it. Keep it simple right. I will predict 2 NCAA wins the first over a 5 seed and the. We beat the 4 seed to make the S16 these victories will come as no surprise to the Warrior faithful. Ring Out Ahoys.... and pass the koolaid..

There is quite a bit of wishful thinking there. The Easy part should have been a give away.

Just win baby.
I would take the Rick SLU program right now.

 

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