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Author Topic: [Cracked Sidewalks]9-9 Big East Mark Likely = 4 Top 50 Wins and NCAA Bid  (Read 10329 times)

CrackedSidewalksSays

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9-9 Big East Mark Likely = 4 Top 50 Wins and NCAA Bid

It looks to me like MU gets an NCAA bid with a 9-9 or better mark. That would likely entail MU being one of only about 33 teams with four wins over teams in the RPI top 50, likely finish in the top 25 in Strength of Schedule, and get credit for being a better team with Luke Fischer than the early season 4-4 without him. The out-of-conference wins away from home against Georgia Tech (top 100) and Tennessee are decent on the resume as well.

RPI Forecast gives Marquette only a 17% chance of doing that, but that is based on results so far which included eight of 10 games without Luke Fischer.

According to RPI Forecast, Marquette is one of 49 teams projected to have three wins over teams that finish in the Top 50, which would put them right on the bubble of the top 47 or so that get into the tournament. The table below lists the contenders for bids based on how many Top 50 wins they are expected to have, and then how many chances they are expected to have. This ranks MU as 49th because of the teams with 3 Top 50 wins they would have been the one with the most chances (13) so I would put us in last of the 3-team wins. I included teams projected to have at least two wins over top 50 teams and/or to be projected to finish in the RPI Top 70.

If that played out, it would leave Marquette with a 15-15 mark, 7-11 in conference and a 96 RPI – so not enough to get a bid. By my math, Marquette gets in with a 9-9 conference (assuming no slipups in these last two games).

Obviously other games can affect this. Butler, Seton Hall and Georgetown need to stay in the Top 50, and it would be nice if Providence beat Miami to have a shot to finish there. Despite a tough weekend (Seton Hall blown out at Georgia, Xavier being upset by Auburn and Butler losing to Indiana), the Big East is projected to finish 2nd in RPI and have six teams in the top 50 (the projections basically assume one of the six does not end up there and Marquette goes 3-7 against the five that do).<div>
</div><div>Here is the ranking of NCAA teams based on projected wins over Top 50 teams (tie-breaker who had the fewest chances):

1.       Kentucky (SEC) 10 wins over top 50 in 12 chances. RPI 1

2.       Texas (B12) 10 wins over top 50 in 15 chances. RPI 4

3.       Kansas (B12) 9 wins over top 50 in 16 chances. RPI 5

4.       Baylor (B12) 9 wins over top 50 in 16 chances. RPI 9

5.       Duke (ACC) 8 wins over top 50 in 11 chances. RPI 2

6.       Wisconsin (B10) 8 wins over top 50 in 11 chances. RPI 3

7.       Louisville (ACC) 8 wins over top 50 in 12 chances. RPI 7

8.       Virginia (ACC) 7 wins over top 50 in 10 chances. RPI 6

9.       Villanova (BE) 7 wins over top 50 in 11 chances. RPI 14

10.   North Carolina (ACC) 7 wins over top 50 in 13 chances. RPI 8

11.   West Virginia (B12) 7 wins over top 50 in 14 chances. RPI 16

12.   Iowa St. (B12) 7 wins over top 50 in 15 chances. RPI 25

13.   Utah (P12) 6 wins over top 50 in 10 chances. RPI 11

14.   Butler (BE) 6 wins over top 50 in 12 chances. RPI 28

15.   Oklahoma St. (B12) 6 wins over top 50 in 14 chances. RPI 23

16.   Oklahoma (B12) 6 wins over top 50 in 15 chances. RPI 18

17.   TCU (B12) 6 wins over top 50 in 15 chances. RPI 54

18.   Arizona (P12) 5 wins over top 50 in 8 chances. RPI 13

19.   Washington (P12) 5 wins over top 50 in 8 chances. RPI 24

20.   Xavier (BE) 5 wins over top 50 in 10 chances. RPI 21

21.   St. John's (BE) 5 wins over top 50 in 12 chances. RPI 34

22.   Indiana (B10) 5 wins over top 50 in 12 chances. RPI 50

23.   Georgetown (BE) 5 wins over top 50 in 14 chances. RPI 39

24.   Ohio St. (B10) 4 wins over top 50 in 8 chances. RPI 12

25.   Notre Dame (ACC) 4 wins over top 50 in 9 chances. RPI 42

26.   South Carolina (SEC) 4 wins over top 50 in 10 chances. RPI 31

27.   Purdue (B10) 4 wins over top 50 in 10 chances. RPI 73

28.   Seton Hall (BE) 4 wins over top 50 in 11 chances. RPI 29

29.   Providence (BE) 4 wins over top 50 in 12 chances. RPI 55

30.   Creighton (BE) 4 wins over top 50 in 12 chances. RPI 114

31.   Iowa (B10) 4 wins over top 50 in 13 chances. RPI 52

32.   Texas Tech (B12) 4 wins over top 50 in 14 chances. RPI 84

33.   Kansas St. (B12) 4 wins over top 50 in 17 chances. RPI 117

34.   Gonzaga (WCC) 3 wins over top 50 in 5 chances. RPI 10

35.   Wichita St. (MVC) 3 wins over top 50 in 6 chances. RPI 17

36.   San Diego St. (MWC) 3 wins over top 50 in 7 chances. RPI 27

37.   Arkansas (SEC) 3 wins over top 50 in 7 chances. RPI 35

38.   Wyoming (MWC) 3 wins over top 50 in 7 chances. RPI 68

39.   VCU (A10) 3 wins over top 50 in 8 chances. RPI 15

40.   LSU (SEC) 3 wins over top 50 in 8 chances. RPI 60

41.   Michigan St. (B10) 3 wins over top 50 in 9 chances. RPI 32

42.   Miami FL (ACC) 3 wins over top 50 in 9 chances. RPI 37

43.   Minnesota (B10) 3 wins over top 50 in 9 chances. RPI 36

44.   California (P12) 3 wins over top 50 in 9 chances. RPI 40

45.   Maryland (B10) 3 wins over top 50 in 9 chances. RPI 41

46.   Georgia (SEC) 3 wins over top 50 in 10 chances. RPI 48

47.   Stanford (P12) 3 wins over top 50 in 10 chances. RPI 62

48.   North Carolina St. (ACC) 3 wins over top 50 in 11 chances. RPI 43

49.   Marquette (BE) 3 wins over top 50 in 13 chances. RPI 96

50.   Colorado St. (MWC) 2 wins over top 50 in 4 chances. RPI 26

51.   Old Dominion (CUSA) 2 wins over top 50 in 4 chances. RPI 38

52.   SMU (Amer) 2 wins over top 50 in 5 chances. RPI 20

53.   Northern Iowa (MVC) 2 wins over top 50 in 5 chances. RPI 19

54.   Rhode Island (A10) 2 wins over top 50 in 5 chances. RPI 53

55.   UTEP (CUSA) 2 wins over top 50 in 5 chances. RPI 66

56.   Evansville (MVC) 2 wins over top 50 in 5 chances. RPI 69

57.   St. Bonaventure (A10) 2 wins over top 50 in 5 chances. RPI 97

58.   Davidson (A10) 2 wins over top 50 in 6 chances. RPI 22

59.   Cincinnati (Amer) 2 wins over top 50 in 6 chances. RPI 58

60.   George Washington (A10) 2 wins over top 50 in 7 chances. RPI 70

61.   Illinois St. (MVC) 2 wins over top 50 in 7 chances. RPI 79

62.   Auburn (SEC) 2 wins over top 50 in 7 chances. RPI 167

63.   Florida (SEC) 2 wins over top 50 in 8 chances. RPI 30

64.   Mississippi (SEC) 2 wins over top 50 in 8 chances. RPI 99

65.   Illinois (B10) 2 wins over top 50 in 8 chances. RPI 51

66.   Colorado (P12) 2 wins over top 50 in 8 chances. RPI 59

67.   Richmond (A10) 2 wins over top 50 in 8 chances. RPI 72

68.   Oregon (P12) 2 wins over top 50 in 8 chances. RPI 106

69.   Oregon St. (P12) 2 wins over top 50 in 8 chances. RPI 124

70.   Georgia Tech (ACC) 2 wins over top 50 in 9 chances. RPI 76

71.   Long Beach St. (BW) 2 wins over top 50 in 9 chances. RPI 82

72.   Arizona St. (P12) 2 wins over top 50 in 9 chances. RPI 122

73.   Syracuse (ACC) 2 wins over top 50 in 10 chances. RPI 64

74.   Pittsburgh (ACC) 2 wins over top 50 in 10 chances. RPI 115

75.   UCLA (P12) 2 wins over top 50 in 11 chances. RPI 78

76.   DePaul (BE) 2 wins over top 50 in 12 chances. RPI 193

77.   Green Bay (Horz) 1 wins over top 50 in 3 chances. RPI 46

78.   Georgia St. (SB) 1 wins over top 50 in 4 chances. RPI 56

79.   Wofford (SC) 1 wins over top 50 in 4 chances. RPI 57

80.   Dayton (A10) 1 wins over top 50 in 4 chances. RPI 61

81.   Boise St. (MWC) 1 wins over top 50 in 5 chances. RPI 44

82.   Texas A&amp;M (SEC) 1 wins over top 50 in 7 chances. RPI 65

83.   Connecticut (Amer) 1 wins over top 50 in 7 chances. RPI 67

84.   Harvard (Ivy) 0 wins over top 50 in 1 chances. RPI 47

85.   Buffalo (MAC) 0 wins over top 50 in 2 chances. RPI 33

86.   Eastern Washington (BSky) 0 wins over top 50 in 2 chances. RPI 49

87.   Stephen F. Austin (Slnd) 0 wins over top 50 in 3 chances. RPI 63

88.   BYU (WCC) 0 wins over top 50 in 4 chances. RPI 45</div>

Source: 9-9 Big East Mark Likely = 4 Top 50 Wins and NCAA Bid

source?

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks]9-9 Big East Mark Likely = 4 Top 50 Wins and NCAA Bid
« Reply #1 on: December 22, 2014, 03:13:24 AM »
I hope you are right, but I think it will be difficult for a team with less than 20 wins to get in. Last year only 3 teams got in with less than 20 wins. None of them were at-large bids.

THRILLHO

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks]9-9 Big East Mark Likely = 4 Top 50 Wins and NCAA Bid
« Reply #2 on: December 22, 2014, 06:22:01 AM »
I hope you are right, but I think it will be difficult for a team with less than 20 wins to get in. Last year only 3 teams got in with less than 20 wins. None of them were at-large bids.

I agree and if that is the projected RPI (96) then I think that doesn't get us in. The committee is smart enough to take into account the Fischer factor, but 17 wins and RPI of 96 is not really even that close to the bubble IMHO. If we can get into the conversation as a bubble team (19-20 wins + a few in the BE tourney) then the Fischer factor might help us leapfrog over teams with better RPIs.

Coleman

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks]9-9 Big East Mark Likely = 4 Top 50 Wins and NCAA Bid
« Reply #3 on: December 22, 2014, 11:02:41 AM »
Gimme some of that Kool Aid

tower912

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks]9-9 Big East Mark Likely = 4 Top 50 Wins and NCAA Bid
« Reply #4 on: December 22, 2014, 11:13:39 AM »
9-9, 17-13 isn't going to get a bid.   
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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks]9-9 Big East Mark Likely = 4 Top 50 Wins and NCAA Bid
« Reply #5 on: December 22, 2014, 11:25:37 AM »
9-9, 17-13 isn't going to get a bid.   

No way, and I think we are going to be pushing it to get to 9-9.  Only way we get in with even a 10-8 conference record is if one of those wins is over Villanova.
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copious1218

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks]9-9 Big East Mark Likely = 4 Top 50 Wins and NCAA Bid
« Reply #6 on: December 22, 2014, 11:30:44 AM »
I agree and if that is the projected RPI (96) then I think that doesn't get us in. The committee is smart enough to take into account the Fischer factor, but 17 wins and RPI of 96 is not really even that close to the bubble IMHO. If we can get into the conversation as a bubble team (19-20 wins + a few in the BE tourney) then the Fischer factor might help us leapfrog over teams with better RPIs.

If I'm not mistaken I think you're reading it wrong.  The RPI of 96 is based upon us going 7-11 in conference for a 15-15 record.  Not sure what the RPI would be if we went the 9-9 the author thinks is sufficient. 

Personally, I don't think even 9-9 gets us in (17-13, 9-9).  I think 11-7 in conference is the minimum (19-11, 11-7).

MarquetteDano

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks]9-9 Big East Mark Likely = 4 Top 50 Wins and NCAA Bid
« Reply #7 on: December 22, 2014, 11:31:30 AM »
No way, and I think we are going to be pushing it to get to 9-9.  Only way we get in with even a 10-8 conference record is if one of those wins is over Villanova.

We could probably afford losing to Nova twice if we had a good road win, like over St. John's in MSG or G'Town in DC.  But agree 10-8 and also at least one win in the BET.

bilsu

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks]9-9 Big East Mark Likely = 4 Top 50 Wins and NCAA Bid
« Reply #8 on: December 22, 2014, 11:49:06 AM »
9-9 and two conference tournament wins gets us 19-14, which I think would put us in the first four out. Same scenario 10-8 gest us to 20-13 and last four in. I believe we need two conference tournament wins to get in. Definitely need 20 wins under any scenario.

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks]9-9 Big East Mark Likely = 4 Top 50 Wins and NCAA Bid
« Reply #9 on: December 22, 2014, 11:51:45 AM »
10-8 and I feel fairly good, depending though on where the w/L's are.

9-9, probably sweating profusely & needing to do work in the BEast tourney
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brandx

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks]9-9 Big East Mark Likely = 4 Top 50 Wins and NCAA Bid
« Reply #10 on: December 22, 2014, 12:06:32 PM »
We need to go minimum 11-7 in conference play with a minimum of one tournament win. 2 might be necessary.

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks]9-9 Big East Mark Likely = 4 Top 50 Wins and NCAA Bid
« Reply #11 on: December 22, 2014, 12:15:13 PM »
We need to go minimum 11-7 in conference play with a minimum of one tournament win. 2 might be necessary.

While I'm in agreement, I don't know that we can definitively say that yet.....insert soft or hard bubble reference
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brandx

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks]9-9 Big East Mark Likely = 4 Top 50 Wins and NCAA Bid
« Reply #12 on: December 22, 2014, 12:16:52 PM »
Gimme some of that Kool Aid

+1

I understand people's need to have stats for everything, but they are relatively meaningless at this time of year.

I don't know what would be a better bet. Against the prediction that Kentucky loses two conference games (assuming they beat Louisville on Sat.) or against 9-9 getting us in the Big Dance.

brandx

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks]9-9 Big East Mark Likely = 4 Top 50 Wins and NCAA Bid
« Reply #13 on: December 22, 2014, 12:22:04 PM »
While I'm in agreement, I don't know that we can definitively say that yet.....insert soft or hard bubble reference

Agreed. If we finished 11-7  and tie for 4th place with 6 of the losses coming to the three teams ahead of us, 11-7 probably wouldn't get us in. But you are right. There are so many factors in play yet, that we can't say anything definitive right now.

That's why I said the stats were meaningless now. Not that they don't have any value at all, but they really aren't going to tell us much until around the middle of the conference schedule when we see how things start to shake out.

forgetful

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks]9-9 Big East Mark Likely = 4 Top 50 Wins and NCAA Bid
« Reply #14 on: December 22, 2014, 12:31:01 PM »
9-9 and two conference tournament wins gets us 19-14, which I think would put us in the first four out. Same scenario 10-8 gest us to 20-13 and last four in. I believe we need two conference tournament wins to get in. Definitely need 20 wins under any scenario.

I was thinking we needed 11-7, but your 10-8 scenario makes sense.  Anything less than 11 wins in conference and we need at least two conference tournament wins.

manny31

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks]9-9 Big East Mark Likely = 4 Top 50 Wins and NCAA Bid
« Reply #15 on: December 22, 2014, 12:53:01 PM »
Could someone show me how we get those 11 wins? I've got the Warriors getting 2 wins vs DePaul, maybe split with Butler and Creighton but beyon that I'm not sure how MU does be the rest of the conference......

JamilJaeJamailJrJuan

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks]9-9 Big East Mark Likely = 4 Top 50 Wins and NCAA Bid
« Reply #16 on: December 22, 2014, 12:53:30 PM »
I was thinking we needed 11-7, but your 10-8 scenario makes sense.  Anything less than 11 wins in conference and we need at least two conference tournament wins.

11-7 and you're in. Pretty confident in that. 
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JamilJaeJamailJrJuan

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks]9-9 Big East Mark Likely = 4 Top 50 Wins and NCAA Bid
« Reply #17 on: December 22, 2014, 12:56:19 PM »
Could someone show me how we get those 11 wins? I've got the Warriors getting 2 wins vs DePaul, maybe split with Butler and Creighton but beyon that I'm not sure how MU does be the rest of the conference......


Go 8-1 at home.  Steal 2 on the road besides the opener vs. Depaul.  Easy.
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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks]9-9 Big East Mark Likely = 4 Top 50 Wins and NCAA Bid
« Reply #18 on: December 22, 2014, 01:04:19 PM »

Go 8-1 at home.  Steal 2 on the road besides the opener vs. Depaul.  Easy.


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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks]9-9 Big East Mark Likely = 4 Top 50 Wins and NCAA Bid
« Reply #19 on: December 22, 2014, 01:19:22 PM »
I don't know why I always have to say it.

11-7 and we are in. And it really won't even be that much to sweat.

Idk if we can pull off 11-7. But they are not leaving out an 11-7 conference team from one of the power conferences.

Our RPI would be in the 30s I believe lol. Its a stone cold lock.
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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks]9-9 Big East Mark Likely = 4 Top 50 Wins and NCAA Bid
« Reply #20 on: December 22, 2014, 01:21:57 PM »
I love these threads in December. Every team out there still has better than 2/3 of their games to play, yet so many think they know exactly what its going to take to get a bid.

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks]9-9 Big East Mark Likely = 4 Top 50 Wins and NCAA Bid
« Reply #21 on: December 22, 2014, 01:25:23 PM »
If I'm not mistaken I think you're reading it wrong.  The RPI of 96 is based upon us going 7-11 in conference for a 15-15 record.  Not sure what the RPI would be if we went the 9-9 the author thinks is sufficient. 

Personally, I don't think even 9-9 gets us in (17-13, 9-9).  I think 11-7 in conference is the minimum (19-11, 11-7).

Yep you're right, I read it wrong. I agree that 9-9 (17-3) is probably not enough, but wonder what that would be for RPI. I think our ceiling is to get into the ~50 range for RPI and hope the committee recognizes that we are a different team than at the start of the year and leapfrog us over other bubble teams. Whether that means 10 or 11 and maybe 2 in the tourney or it can be done with less I'm not sure. But if we finish 9-9 the committee could legitimately conclude that we were not much better with Fischer than without.

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks]9-9 Big East Mark Likely = 4 Top 50 Wins and NCAA Bid
« Reply #22 on: December 22, 2014, 01:26:19 PM »
I love these threads in December. Every team out there still has better than 2/3 of their games to play, yet so many think they know exactly what its going to take to get a bid.

It would seem a lot of posts here say words like "I think" or "probably" or "pretty confident" or "might".  Are you saying we have to wait to see how everyone else does if we go 6-12 in conference?  14-4 in conference?

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks]9-9 Big East Mark Likely = 4 Top 50 Wins and NCAA Bid
« Reply #23 on: December 22, 2014, 01:28:59 PM »
It would seem a lot of posts here say words like "I think" or "probably" or "pretty confident" or "might".  Are you saying we have to wait to see how everyone else does if we go 6-12 in conference?  14-4 in conference?

Show me where somebody talked about going 6-10 or 14-4 and I'll give you an answer. I see 9-9, 10-8 etc. With people already prescribing the number of BET wins that will be needed. Nobody knows how that will come out. That's what I'm saying.

MarquetteDano

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks]9-9 Big East Mark Likely = 4 Top 50 Wins and NCAA Bid
« Reply #24 on: December 22, 2014, 01:30:33 PM »
Show me where somebody talked about going 6-10 or 14-4 and I'll give you an answer. I see 9-9, 10-8 etc. With people already prescribing the number of BET wins that will be needed. Nobody knows how that will come out. That's what I'm saying.

And how people in this thread said we knew "exactly" (your words) how many wins it would take?  Or did people say words like "probably" and "might"?