[Cracked Sidewalks]History Suggests Opponents’ Shooting Drops 10% when Fischer Arrives Dec. 16

[CrackedSidewalksSays]

History Suggests Opponents’ Shooting Drops 10% when Fischer Arrives Dec. 16

Marquette opponents are hitting 57.1% of their two-pointers, but the arrival of shot-blocker Luke Fischer December 16 will drop that figure by 10% if history holds. Fischer blocked 8.8% of opponent's two-pointers last season at Indiana, and when Marquette has had at least one player average blocking more than 4% of opponent's two-pointers they have held opponents to 48% or less every season...

Source: History Suggests Opponents’ Shooting Drops 10% when Fischer Arrives Dec. 16

[bamamarquettefan]

History Suggests Opponents’ Shooting Drops 10% when Fischer Arrives Dec. 16

Marquette opponents are hitting 57.1% of their two-pointers, but the arrival of shot-blocker Luke Fischer December 16 will drop that figure by 10% if history holds. Fischer blocked 8.8% of opponents’ two-pointers last season at Indiana, and when Marquette has had at least one player average blocking more than 4% of opponents’ two-pointers they have held opponents to 48% or less every season.

Here is the breakdown of opponents' 2-point percentage in relation to MU's top shot-blocker each season:

- Top shot-blocker below 4% since 2003 (4 times) – every season at least 49.3% allowed for average of 51.7% opponents' 2-point shots made
- Top shot-blocker above 4% since 2003 (9 seasons) – every season 48% or less for average of 45.7% opponents' field goals made
- When Jim McIlvaine was 1994 National Defensive Player of the Year he blocked 14.4% and MU allowed a record low 36.8% of opponents' 2-point shots to go in
Despite Marquette’s terrible field goal percentage allowed (the 57.1% allowed ranks MU 328th of 351 defenses), the pressure is so good (force turnovers 25.9% of trips down the court for 20th best of 351 defenses) that the overall defense is almost exactly average (99.5 points per 100 trips).  That’s only the ninth best defense in the Big East, but if the team can keep turning the ball over and Fischer’s presence at the rim lowers the field goal percentage allowed as has always been the case, Marquette could easily move up to about 6th in defense in the Big East.

Marquette is battling Seton Hall to have the 6th best offense, so if they finish 6th in both offense and defense they logically would finish around 6th in the conference instead of 9th - where they are currently projected.

This year Deonte Burton has led the team by blocking 3.5% of opponents’ two-point shots. Marquette also lacked a shot-blocker in 2004 (Terry Sanders 3.4%), 2009 (Jimmy Butler 2.5%) and 2010 (Joe Fulce 2.9%), and opponents’ have averaged making 51.7% of their two-points shots in those years.
In the other seasons since the state has been kept at www.kenpom.com, Dwyane Wade, Marcus Jackson, Jamil Lott, Ousmane Barro (twice), Jamil Wilson, or Chris Otule (three times) have averaged blocking more than 4% of all opponents two-pointers, and in those seasons opponents’ have shot 45.7% on two-pointers.

I went back and did the math myself for the historic 1994 season by Jim McIlvaine, the current Marquette TV announcer who was national defensive player of the year that year.

If Luke Fischer improves at all on his 8.8% of shots blocked at Indiana last year, then he will be the greatest shot-blocker Marquette has had since McIlvaine.

Here is the actual table, which I kept at the bottom of this post since the code is impossible to read for MUScoop readers.




Year   2-pt Def   Rank   Blocker   Blk%   4%+?
1994   36.8   1   Jim McIlvaine   14.4   Yes
2003   45.9   76   Dwyane Wade   4.2   Yes
2004   49.3   212   Terry Sanders   3.4   No
2005   44.7   45   Marcus Jackson   5.4   Yes
2006   45.9   87   Jamil Lott   6.5   Yes
2007   45.2   52   Ousmane Barro   4.2   Yes
2008   46.7   98   Ousmane Barro   6.4   Yes
2009   50.3   265   Jimmy Butler   2.5   No
2010   50   263   Joe Fulce   2.9   No
2011   48   179   Chris Otule   8.9   Yes
2012   44.4   48   Jamil Wilson   5.8   Yes
2013   44.9   76   Chris Otule   6.7   Yes
2014   45.7   68   Chris Otule   6.4   Yes
2015   57.1   328   Deonte Burton   3.5   No
2015   ?   ?   Luke Fischer   8.8   Yes
2003-   51.7      Ave less than 4% Block since 2003   3.1   No
2003-   45.7      Ave more than 4% block since 2003   6.1   Yes

[brewcity77]

LINK: http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2014/11/history-suggests-opponents-shooting.html

It's much easier to read there.

Good article, and I was just about to pose a question about the impact of Fischer. One thing this team is doing a TON of is missing bunnies. To date, only Juan (62.8%) and Duane (56.5%) have made two point baskets at a higher percentage than Luke did (55.6%) in his limited time as a freshman. Luke's eFG% (also 55.6%) was higher than anyone other than Juan this year.

I don't know what impact he has, but at the center position, Luke stands to be a significant upgrade on both sides of the court over Steve while also letting Steve play a role he is more comfortable in. But it's not just what Luke brings himself but rather what he can do for others. How many bunnies were we missing that we should be making? Luke's size should help with sealing the lane and making the trip down low a little bit smoother for our guards. It's not just Derrick, we've seen Duane, Jajuan, and Carlino all miss shots that just make you scratch your head. Chris Otule was fantastic and often overlooked for his ability to seal the lane. If Luke can bring anything resembling what Otule did for his teammates, it changes our offense completely.

The impact of one player is always easy to minimize, especially when you are counting on production from a guy who we are hoping can step into a starter's role from day one. But from what I've heard about Luke, he could be that difference. From his first day here, he got it. He was the guy the coaches only had to tell something once to. He understands the fundamentals and knows how to receive coaching.

One analogy I heard about Luke was that he is like the chalk board scene in Miracle. The first time Herb Brooks is explaining something, he walks away and all the players look at each other in confusion saying "did you understand any of what he was talking about?" But later, after more practice, they go through the same scenario and they all get it, knowing what Herb is trying to show them before he even finishes.

Since he arrived, Luke is the guy who understood what the coaches were trying to show him before they finished. So when it comes to sealing the lane, setting a screen, getting proper box-out position, and timing his blocks, Luke should understand exactly what the coaching staff wants. The question will remain as to whether he can do it with a year's rust on him, but if he can be the big presence we've lacked since Otule left, that could do wonders for a team with so many struggles.

[Groin_pull]

Hope we all aren't expecting too much from Fischer.

[muwarrior69]

LINK: http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2014/11/history-suggests-opponents-shooting.html

It's much easier to read there.

Good article, and I was just about to pose a question about the impact of Fischer. One thing this team is doing a TON of is missing bunnies. To date, only Juan (62.8%) and Duane (56.5%) have made two point baskets at a higher percentage than Luke did (55.6%) in his limited time as a freshman. Luke's eFG% (also 55.6%) was higher than anyone other than Juan this year.

I don't know what impact he has, but at the center position, Luke stands to be a significant upgrade on both sides of the court over Steve while also letting Steve play a role he is more comfortable in. But it's not just what Luke brings himself but rather what he can do for others. How many bunnies were we missing that we should be making? Luke's size should help with sealing the lane and making the trip down low a little bit smoother for our guards. It's not just Derrick, we've seen Duane, Jajuan, and Carlino all miss shots that just make you scratch your head. Chris Otule was fantastic and often overlooked for his ability to seal the lane. If Luke can bring anything resembling what Otule did for his teammates, it changes our offense completely.

The impact of one player is always easy to minimize, especially when you are counting on production from a guy who we are hoping can step into a starter's role from day one. But from what I've heard about Luke, he could be that difference. From his first day here, he got it. He was the guy the coaches only had to tell something once to. He understands the fundamentals and knows how to receive coaching.

One analogy I heard about Luke was that he is like the chalk board scene in Miracle. The first time Herb Brooks is explaining something, he walks away and all the players look at each other in confusion saying "did you understand any of what he was talking about?" But later, after more practice, they go through the same scenario and they all get it, knowing what Herb is trying to show them before he even finishes.

Since he arrived, Luke is the guy who understood what the coaches were trying to show him before they finished. So when it comes to sealing the lane, setting a screen, getting proper box-out position, and timing his blocks, Luke should understand exactly what the coaching staff wants. The question will remain as to whether he can do it with a year's rust on him, but if he can be the big presence we've lacked since Otule left, that could do wonders for a team with so many struggles.

I know he did not play much at IU, but was wondering is he foul prone?

[brewcity77]

I know he did not play much at IU, but was wondering is he foul prone?

In limited minutes, he gave up 4.9 fouls/40 minutes played. While it is a small sample size, it is a bit concerning that on 5 occasions he gave up multiple fouls in 12 minutes or less. The positive is that all 5 of those occasions came in his first 8 games. In the last 5 games he played for IU, he never committed more than 1 foul while averaging 10.2 mpg during that stretch. In those 5 games, he gave up only 2.4 fouls/40 minutes played.

At a glance, he doesn't look any more or less foul prone than a Chris Otule. I'm sure there will be games he gets into foul trouble, especially as he's our only real option down low, but I don't think he'll hack near as much as say a Dwight Burke.

[bamamarquettefan]

LINK: http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2014/11/history-suggests-opponents-shooting.html

It's much easier to read there.

Good article, and I was just about to pose a question about the impact of Fischer. One thing this team is doing a TON of is missing bunnies. To date, only Juan (62.8%) and Duane (56.5%) have made two point baskets at a higher percentage than Luke did (55.6%) in his limited time as a freshman. Luke's eFG% (also 55.6%) was higher than anyone other than Juan this year.

I don't know what impact he has, but at the center position, Luke stands to be a significant upgrade on both sides of the court over Steve while also letting Steve play a role he is more comfortable in. But it's not just what Luke brings himself but rather what he can do for others. How many bunnies were we missing that we should be making? Luke's size should help with sealing the lane and making the trip down low a little bit smoother for our guards. It's not just Derrick, we've seen Duane, Jajuan, and Carlino all miss shots that just make you scratch your head. Chris Otule was fantastic and often overlooked for his ability to seal the lane. If Luke can bring anything resembling what Otule did for his teammates, it changes our offense completely.

The impact of one player is always easy to minimize, especially when you are counting on production from a guy who we are hoping can step into a starter's role from day one. But from what I've heard about Luke, he could be that difference. From his first day here, he got it. He was the guy the coaches only had to tell something once to. He understands the fundamentals and knows how to receive coaching.

One analogy I heard about Luke was that he is like the chalk board scene in Miracle. The first time Herb Brooks is explaining something, he walks away and all the players look at each other in confusion saying "did you understand any of what he was talking about?" But later, after more practice, they go through the same scenario and they all get it, knowing what Herb is trying to show them before he even finishes.

Since he arrived, Luke is the guy who understood what the coaches were trying to show him before they finished. So when it comes to sealing the lane, setting a screen, getting proper box-out position, and timing his blocks, Luke should understand exactly what the coaching staff wants. The question will remain as to whether he can do it with a year's rust on him, but if he can be the big presence we've lacked since Otule left, that could do wonders for a team with so many struggles.

Thanks Brew - great job of adding in the offensive side of the equation. The fact is with the 333rd tallest team in the country, I don't see how Fischer would not be a huge factor on both sides of the ball.

[real chili 83]

LINK: http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2014/11/history-suggests-opponents-shooting.html

It's much easier to read there.

Good article, and I was just about to pose a question about the impact of Fischer. One thing this team is doing a TON of is missing bunnies. To date, only Juan (62.8%) and Duane (56.5%) have made two point baskets at a higher percentage than Luke did (55.6%) in his limited time as a freshman. Luke's eFG% (also 55.6%) was higher than anyone other than Juan this year.

I don't know what impact he has, but at the center position, Luke stands to be a significant upgrade on both sides of the court over Steve while also letting Steve play a role he is more comfortable in. But it's not just what Luke brings himself but rather what he can do for others. How many bunnies were we missing that we should be making? Luke's size should help with sealing the lane and making the trip down low a little bit smoother for our guards. It's not just Derrick, we've seen Duane, Jajuan, and Carlino all miss shots that just make you scratch your head. Chris Otule was fantastic and often overlooked for his ability to seal the lane. If Luke can bring anything resembling what Otule did for his teammates, it changes our offense completely.

The impact of one player is always easy to minimize, especially when you are counting on production from a guy who we are hoping can step into a starter's role from day one. But from what I've heard about Luke, he could be that difference. From his first day here, he got it. He was the guy the coaches only had to tell something once to. He understands the fundamentals and knows how to receive coaching.

One analogy I heard about Luke was that he is like the chalk board scene in Miracle. The first time Herb Brooks is explaining something, he walks away and all the players look at each other in confusion saying "did you understand any of what he was talking about?" But later, after more practice, they go through the same scenario and they all get it, knowing what Herb is trying to show them before he even finishes.

Since he arrived, Luke is the guy who understood what the coaches were trying to show him before they finished. So when it comes to sealing the lane, setting a screen, getting proper box-out position, and timing his blocks, Luke should understand exactly what the coaching staff wants. The question will remain as to whether he can do it with a year's rust on him, but if he can be the big presence we've lacked since Otule left, that could do wonders for a team with so many struggles.

Thanks John for the insight.

[79Warrior]

Hope we all aren't expecting too much from Fischer.

Some people are for sure. But, he most certainly will help. Just having another body that can play is huge. Anything we get from Luke is a plus. I am looking forward to him playing for the Warriors.