Pace of Play

[brewcity77]

In the good news department, the previous two games were against the two fastest teams we will play all year. For a team that is struggling mightily with transition defense, that's a very good thing. Nebraska-Omaha is currently ranked #1 in the nation in possessions per game, and believe it or not, their game at the BC was the slowest paced game they've played all year. NJIT was ranked #20 in possessions coming into last night. With two fast guards in Lynn and Howard, they wanted to do the same thing UNO did to us.

That's the first bit of good news. We slowed the game last night. It worked for Lazar and the midgets and could work for this team. We only played 61 possessions last night and especially in the second half, the team looked much more comfortable. Yes, NJIT missed some layups, but quite a few of those misses were because there was actually some help defense and when a man was beat they at least forced the driver toward a second defender. Slow the game down, keep the score close, we'll be able to steal some wins. Coming into this season, we knew we would probably lose some games we shouldn't. Saturday was one of those. But I also think we'll win some games people don't think we should.

The fastest team in the Orlando Classic field is Santa Clara. They are averaging 67.1 possessions per game, which is 176th in the country, and quite a bit slower than the blistering 79 possessions in the UNO game. Kansas is the only other team ranked in the top-200 in possessions. We have a lot better chance competing with teams that aren't going to try to turn the game into a track meet. Keep it close, maybe we can steal a game or two down there.

After Orlando, we're home for the rest of the non-conference. All but one of those 5 games will be against teams ranked #280 or lower in adjusted tempo, and North Dakota (68.4 possessions, #129) isn't exactly going to be speeding us up. We should win our three buy games, and a slow pace should make it easier to stay close against the high-majors (though I could see Wisconsin being a dumpster fire).

By the time we get to Big East play, we'll have Luke available and somewhat acclimated to the game. Further, no one in the Big East plays the 70+ possession style of basketball that has given us the most trouble so far. Seton Hall (69.7 possessions, #72) is the closest. Right now I think people are gearing up for a DePaul-esque Big East season. I don't think that's in the cards. Wojo is already slowing things down, and that will allow us to compete. Despite the rocky start, I still think we are a good bet for double-digit wins and will have a chance to finish around the middle of the league (thinking 6th-8th is realistic).

So before we get to panicked, slow down and remember it's a long season. And as long as Marquette also slows down too, they'll have a chance to get some wins.

[tower912]

I have missed you.......

[ronald dragon]

Love having these insightful posts back

[Silkk the Shaka]

Brew, I respect your efforts to polish the UNO and NJIT turds, but Ohio St. also plays below this golden 70+ possession threshold that you are positing is our kryptonite and they were able to eat us alive in transition too, in a 68 possession game to boot. You may be overemphasizing this stat slightly.

We will almost certainly improve because we are young and will also add a missing piece in the middle that could take care of some issues. As it stands currently, I'm thinking this 70+ possession thing is a red herring, but again, I admire the tenacity.

[brewcity77]

Brew, I respect your efforts to polish the UNO and NJIT turds, but Ohio St. also plays below this golden 70+ possession threshold that you are positing is our kryptonite and they were able to eat us alive in transition too, in a 68 possession game to boot. You may be overemphasizing this stat slightly.

We will almost certainly improve because we are young and will also add a missing piece in the middle that could take care of some issues. As it stands currently, I'm thinking this 70+ possession thing is a red herring, but again, I admire the tenacity.

Ohio State is much better than we are. It wouldn't have mattered if we played 60 possessions or 80, they would have defeated us.

I'm not saying this team isn't disappointing. What this is more meant to illustrate is that right now, teams that play fast and exploit are transition defense are the ones that will really give us a ton of trouble. Is a loss to UNO a bad loss? Yes. Is struggling against NJIT something to be concerned about? Yes. But I am trying to illustrate why those particular cupcakes were ones that we were more likely to have trouble with.

Omaha beat us, but just days earlier lost to Seattle. So does that mean we'd also lose to Seattle? I tend to think not. Why? Seattle plays slower, which would give our defense more time to get set. They also only have one real three-point shooter, whereas Omaha had more guys that could step out and hit shots against us. Slower pace, one shooter that Derrick Wilson could isolate, that's a team we'd be able to deal with much easier than a faster-paced team with more shooters.

I think there are numerous cupcakes that we would have had a relatively easy time with, and many of them are probably better than Omaha or NJIT on the balance. But I think there are other cupcakes, probably worse than either of those two teams, that would also give us trouble because of how they play.

Tempo is just one variable in a game. Right now, for an inexperienced team that doesn't seem gifted with tremendous speed, we'll do better against the slower pace teams, which is why I think the lack of such pacey teams in the future is one reason for optimism.

[Dr. Blackheart]

Offensively, tOSU's offensive possessions last 13.9 seconds bit defensively they slow opponents to 20.6 seconds. Both are elite, but the rate of possession disparity is telling in the topic of this thread. 

[rocky_warrior]

Despite the rocky start

Hey, don't try to pin this on me! 

[Jay Bee]

Looking at tempo (or adj tempo) at such a high level is tough to do at this point in the season.

One of many points (short on time at the moment) is "tempo" has been increased this year by Marquette's defense turning the opponent over at an extremely high rate.

One must really dig to understand the in's and out's here. If you know what I mean.

[brewcity77]

Looking at tempo (or adj tempo) at such a high level is tough to do at this point in the season.

One of many points (short on time at the moment) is "tempo" has been increased this year by Marquette's defense turning the opponent over at an extremely high rate.

One must really dig to understand the in's and out's here. If you know what I mean.

Over the past 3 years since they came into D1, however, Omaha has ranked in the top-11 every year in adjusted tempo, including being the fastest team in the country 2 years ago. Further, with the addition of Damon Lynn last year, NJIT played at their fastest pace under Jim Engles, ranking 50th in the country. It's not a fluke that those teams want to play fast.

[Silkk the Shaka]

Over the past 3 years since they came into D1, however, Omaha has ranked in the top-11 every year in adjusted tempo, including being the fastest team in the country 2 years ago. Further, with the addition of Damon Lynn last year, NJIT played at their fastest pace under Jim Engles, ranking 50th in the country. It's not a fluke that those teams want to play fast.

These are true statements.

Omaha and NJIT are also bad to very bad teams that a decent to good team beats at home regardless of pace.

MU will improve, that I can guarantee. We will look back at these games in a couple months when we get Fischer or next November when we have Ellenson or a couple years as Wojo is cutting nets in the tourney and smile at how far the team has come. But right now we are not good. It's okay man. No need for tortured polemics and talking point excuses.

[willie warrior]

Hey, don't try to pin this on me! 

We all know it is Nerslock Holmes' fault!

[hairy worthen]

Ohio State is much better than we are. It wouldn't have mattered if we played 60 possessions or 80, they would have defeated us.

I'm not saying this team isn't disappointing. What this is more meant to illustrate is that right now, teams that play fast and exploit are transition defense are the ones that will really give us a ton of trouble. Is a loss to UNO a bad loss? Yes. Is struggling against NJIT something to be concerned about? Yes. But I am trying to illustrate why those particular cupcakes were ones that we were more likely to have trouble with.

Tempo is just one variable in a game. Right now, for an inexperienced team that doesn't seem gifted with tremendous speed, we'll do better against the slower pace teams, which is why I think the lack of such pacey teams in the future is one reason for optimism.

Sounds like a lot of rationalization for poor performance. You can’t have it all ways. True, Ohio State is better than us, but we (at least should be) better than Omaha and NJIT.  Pace of play shouldn’t matter when there is such a disparity in talent. These teams weren’t exactly the Runnin Rebels of 90-91 or the 80’s Loyola Marymount teams.  These teams were barely division 1 teams.

 Why would up tempo teams give us trouble? You would think the opposite would be true.  We run a 3 or 4 guard offense with very quick and athletic players.  If I had to pick reasons for such a poor showing against inferior talented teams I would guess.

1.   No effective size inside.  Juan Anderson is a pleasant surprise, but he isn’t the second coming of Lazar Hayward. Steve Taylor has been a major disappointment so far but it has only been 3 games. You can’t get out rebounded 106 to 78 in three games against cupcakes and expect to do well. Look no further than that to explain their performance so far.

Fischer will help, but we shouldn’t expect too much at first.  The improvement with the appearance of Fischer will be more from helping other player’s games instead of what Fischer can provide statistically

2.   Inexperienced players filling unfamiliar roles.  There will be improvement, and growing pains, but right now they are in the beginning of a process. The defense will improve, the offense will be more consistent and players will improve with confidence. (see Wilson, Duane)


3.   Wojo finding the right rotations and finding out what his players can and can’t do.

Inferior opponent’s pace of play has little to do with the poor showing so far. Things will improve. I can see the team steadily improving and finishing above .500.

[brewcity77]

These are true statements.

Omaha and NJIT are also bad to very bad teams that a decent to good team beats at home regardless of pace.

MU will improve, that I can guarantee. We will look back at these games in a couple months when we get Fischer or next November when we have Ellenson or a couple years as Wojo is cutting nets in the tourney and smile at how far the team has come. But right now we are not good. It's okay man. No need for tortured polemics and talking point excuses.

Oh, we're absolutely not as good as any of us want this team to be. We're not even as good as those of us that had fairly low expectations thought we'd be. But while I don't think we are as good as the top-100 ranks most of the computers had us at to start the season, we also aren't as bad as the sub-250 ranks of the teams we lost to/struggled with. All this is meant to illustrate is that there is more to it than simply "URGH, MARQUETTE BAD" and to show that there are some reasons for optimism as the season goes on.

[hairy worthen]

Oh, we're absolutely not as good as any of us want this team to be. We're not even as good as those of us that had fairly low expectations thought we'd be. But while I don't think we are as good as the top-100 ranks most of the computers had us at to start the season, we also aren't as bad as the sub-250 ranks of the teams we lost to/struggled with. All this is meant to illustrate is that there is more to it than simply "URGH, MARQUETTE BAD" and to show that there are some reasons for optimism as the season goes on.

you are correct, there are reasons for optimism as I pointed out. I just do not think playing better teams that are not as fast paced as NJIT and Omaha is a reason for optimism. 

[brewcity77]

you are correct, there are reasons for optimism as I pointed out. I just do not think playing better teams that are not as fast paced as NJIT and Omaha is a reason for optimism. 

I do think it will help, but it's all about discussion. After all, when we're playing for a draft pick, we need to talk about something other than all the digits piling up in the loss column

[hairy worthen]

I do think it will help, but it's all about discussion. After all, when we're playing for a draft pick, we need to talk about something other than all the digits piling up in the loss column

True.

I just wish we really could get a high draft pick for sucking, say Diamond Stone. I actually do not think we will suck this year when all is said and done, but I, like you can be overly optimistic