UNO Autopsy Stats

[Dr. Blackheart]

We saw it (at least those not tuned into Fox) and we emoted it. EOD, this was up there as the Mother of All Stinkers. I dare post this, but what does this look like in numbers?

-- 1.23 (UNO) vs. 1.13 Oratings. Pretty decent offense by MU actually with some nice numbers by Juan, Derrick, Duane...but for the defense.
-- The Mavs shot a 63.4 eFG%, which is now three games out of three (trend) where MU's opponents went over 50. I would be fine with that if the opposing bigs were beating MU, but our supposed strength (guards) are the ones getting sodomized.
-- MU is #342 in the nation in eFG defense. That is face down on the curb with the likes of Coppin State and Mississippi Valley. Worse, the elevator has free-falled way, way beyond SLU, and MU has now become Loyola Chicago. Brutal and not at all reflective of the talent on the roster.
-- MU lost 3 of 4 factors, with TO rate being the bright spot again. MU doesn't give it up much, and it is 28th in the country in taking it back. Is this a bright spot, though, or is MU way overplaying their base defense?

I think it is time for zone, and some major coaching adjustments. Defense is played with the feet, positioning, communication, and mentality. I only saw Du dive for a ball yesterday, and the rebounding effort was abysmal. Saw many instances of blow-by's and miscommunication of who had whom.  Fixable with this talent.

[Tugg Speedman]

-- MU is #342 in the nation in eFG defense. That is face down on the curb with the likes of Coppin State and Mississippi Valley. Worse, the elevator has free-falled way, way beyond SLU, and MU has now become Loyola Chicago. Brutal and not at all reflective of the talent on the roster.

This is the only stat that matters.  Doesn't matter who scores or how much or how.  Until this team learns how to play defense, especially transition defense, it will have a tough time winning.

[brandx]

-- MU is #342 in the nation in eFG defense. That is face down on the curb with the likes of Coppin State and Mississippi Valley. Worse, the elevator has free-falled way, way beyond SLU, and MU has now become Loyola Chicago. Brutal and not at all reflective of the talent on the roster.

This is the only stat that matters.  Doesn't matter who scores or how much or how.  Until this team learns how to play defense, especially transition defense, it will have a tough time winning.

I think it DOES reflect the talent on the roster. Not only are we small, but we are skinny for the most part as well. Juan and Derrick are the only guys who can play physical and Derrick is only 6'0"" and Juan is a thin 6'6".

There is no one to cover in the middle. Steve has shown that he is unable to play defense inside for 3 years so that won't change. They are playing man defense the way they were taught by the hillbilly and it absolutely doesn't work. We couldn't defend against open threes last year but at least we had size and bulk inside. Now we can't defend against open threes and there is also nothing in the paint

[Dr. Blackheart]

I think it DOES reflect the talent on the roster. Not only are we small, but we are skinny for the most part as well. Juan and Derrick are the only guys who can play physical and Derrick is only 6'0"" and Juan is a thin 6'6".

There is no one to cover in the middle. Steve has shown that he is unable to play defense inside for 3 years so that won't change. They are playing man defense the way they were taught by the hillbilly and it absolutely doesn't work. We couldn't defend against open threes last year but at least we had size and bulk inside. Now we can't defend against open threes and there is also nothing in the paint

So, #342 reflects the talent? Long season then. 

[brewcity77]

There is no one to cover in the middle.

I had to chuckle yesterday when I saw Derrick for a time defending the post. Full-on, back to the basket, trying to keep his guy from backing him down. And the reason I laughed? He's probably the guy on our team best suited to do that. He might be 6'1", but at least he has the kind of frame that can keep a guy from pushing him around.

Our previous undersized teams had guys like Burke, Lazar, and Jae that had big bodies despite not being shorter than the average post defender. This team has one guy who's 6'7" and he doesn't remotely have the frame. Can you imagine how easily any of those three guys would push Taylor around? We don't just need height, we need bulk. Fischer will help some, Heldt and the Ellensons will help more. But until we actually have guys that can be physical, not just tall, we're going to have trouble defending the post.

[Dr. Blackheart]

I had to chuckle yesterday when I saw Derrick for a time defending the post. Full-on, back to the basket, trying to keep his guy from backing him down. And the reason I laughed? He's probably the guy on our team best suited to do that. He might be 6'1", but at least he has the kind of frame that can keep a guy from pushing him around.

Our previous undersized teams had guys like Burke, Lazar, and Jae that had big bodies despite not being shorter than the average post defender. This team has one guy who's 6'7" and he doesn't remotely have the frame. Can you imagine how easily any of those three guys would push Taylor around? We don't just need height, we need bulk. Fischer will help some, Heldt and the Ellensons will help more. But until we actually have guys that can be physical, not just tall, we're going to have trouble defending the post.

The issue isn't the height disadvantage, it is the dribble penetration, specifically the blow-by's.  UNO started three guards and they scored 60 points between them, with one concussed.  Wojo mentioned this postgame.

PIP:  MU 50-UNO 34
Fast Break Points: UNO 27-MU 15 (tOSU 20- MU 8)

[brewcity77]

The issue isn't the height disadvantage, it is the dribble penetration, specifically the blow-by's.  UNO started three guards and they scored 60 points between them, with one concussed.  Wojo mentioned this postgame.

PIP:  MU 50-UNO 34
Fast Break Points: UNO 27-MU 15 (tOSU 20- MU 8)

Which is why we need bulk. We need someone in the post who can defend the paint when the guards get blown by. What was really disturbing yesterday was not just that our guards weren't quick enough to prevent dribble penetration, but that when the UNO guards penetrated there was often literally no one in the paint. No one there to get in there way, to block or alter a shot, to put a body on them. There was no physical presence. It wouldn't matter if it was 6'4" Lazar Hayward or 6'7" Dwight Burke or 6'11" Chris Otule, we need a physical player at the second level to stop these guys. It's clearly not Steve or Juan.

[Dr. Blackheart]

Which is why we need bulk. We need someone in the post who can defend the paint when the guards get blown by. What was really disturbing yesterday was not just that our guards weren't quick enough to prevent dribble penetration, but that when the UNO guards penetrated there was often literally no one in the paint. No one there to get in there way, to block or alter a shot, to put a body on them. There was no physical presence. It wouldn't matter if it was 6'4" Lazar Hayward or 6'7" Dwight Burke or 6'11" Chris Otule, we need a physical player at the second level to stop these guys. It's clearly not Steve or Juan.

I looked  up how often UNO scored on trips down the floor:  63% for the game and 72% in the 2nd half where MU lost fast break points 19-9. These are not secondary break points, or possessions with bigs sealing the lanes (which UNO did well), or put backs.  These are primary break points that MU guards are failing to stop nor would a Fischer be fast enough to make it down court that quickly to stop the blow by's.  Fix the scheme or drop your guards back.

You guys make it sound like MU was playing a line up of seven footers.  MU matched up well with Omaha:  5'11, 6'1", 6'2", 6'7", 6'8".  If you cannot make a stop 25% of the trips against that line up, then it will be a long season.  I think there is a lot more talent than that on MU's roster and am far more optimistic it will get figured out.

[brewcity77]

I looked  up how often UNO scored on trips down the floor:  63% for the game and 72% in the 2nd half where MU lost fast break points 19-9. These are not secondary break points, or possessions with bigs sealing the lanes (which UNO did well), or put backs.  These are primary break points that MU guards are failing to stop nor would a Fischer be fast enough to make it down court that quickly to stop the blow by's.  Fix the scheme or drop your guards back.

You guys make it sound like MU was playing a line up of seven footers.  MU matched up well with Omaha:  5'11, 6'1", 6'2", 6'7", 6'8".  If you cannot make a stop 25% of the trips against that line up, then it will be a long season.  I think there is a lot more talent than that on MU's roster and am far more optimistic it will get figured out.

Okay...slow down. You're spending a lot of time attacking shadows. First off, where on earth did I say anything remotely like that?

[Jay Bee]

Season-to-date figures, but interesting to me:

9 guys on the team who can play. Besides Dawson, MBD is the only guy to play less than 22 mpg and he's 5 mpg under that.

[Dr. Blackheart]

Okay...slow down. You're spending a lot of time attacking shadows. First off, where on earth did I say anything remotely like that?

Well, your post that I quoted mentions "bulk", "height" and specifically mentions past in the paint defenders. My point is that primary fast break points is the reason for MU's loss by perimeter players. MU won the points in the paint going away.  So, what is your point by bringing that up?

Signed-

Dark Shadows

[ecompt]

So, #342 reflects the talent? Long season then. 

I think it absolutely reflects the talent on the roster as long as the sophomores and Carlino have no interest at all in playing defense. But it is early.

[Dr. Blackheart]

Here is a few more stats on defense. Of the stopped UNO trips, 70% were due to MU forcing turnovers, 80% in the 2nd half. Stunning, whether we think it is talent, height, scheme or effort.

[brewcity77]

Well, your post that I quoted mentions "bulk", "height" and specifically mentions past in the paint defenders. My point is that primary fast break points is the reason for MU's loss by perimeter players. MU won the points in the paint going away.  So, what is your point by bringing that up?

Signed-

Dark Shadows

brandx made a point that there is no one covering the middle, I responded saying Derrick (sadly) looked like our best suited post defender yesterday, and then used the words "bulk" and "height" not saying that we were up against a team of 7-footers, but simply that we have no physical presence down low. Was yesterday about more than just the lack of a physical paint presence? Absolutely. It would have been nice to see our guys actually getting back on defense to stop the fast break, or our guards being quick enough to stop their guys from walking by them like they were standing still. But when UNO did drive out of the half-court set, it was incredibly frustrating when they not only got by their guy but found a completely empty lane. I can think of at least three occasions when that was the case, usually either because Steve was out of position or simply because no one really seemed to be focusing on that.

Regardless, you mentioned in the OP switching to a zone. While we definitely need to do something, do you think we have the personnel to effectively run zone? I worry that our lack of length would allow for too big of gaps in the zone, and the most efficient zones often have someone down low to protect the rim when it is penetrated. I think the bigger problem is simply getting back on defense, because if the guys are on the wrong side of the floor when the opposing team is attacking, it doesn't matter if we're in man, zone, or nickel, we're not stopping anyone.

Also...those stats regarding stopping UNO with turnovers is terrifying. So the only way we stop someone is to take the ball away from them? That speaks volumes as to how porous our defense has been.

[Dr. Blackheart]

Brew--

On the zone, I just don't think the team is ready to play Wojo's man. I get why he is doing it because of the points you and Brandx are making about lack of size. Although I am not a fan of switching defenses, I don't think our guards are good enough open court defenders to play his pressure scheme.

I was thinking a 3/4 zone trap to slow the tempo against teams teams like tOSU and UNO. First line is to slow down the pace to burn the shot clock, and then fall into a pack defense or zone. Throw in some junk defense...for example, a box or triangle on their guards yesterday.  That way, if Patterson blows by, there is a zone waiting for him. He was the key. Instead he had a clear lane to the hoop.

That said, MU has four games in seven days....and Luke is back in a couple of weeks, so it is a tough call to work it in with limited practice. To me, with these stats, it makes the decision easier. He strongly hinted at scheme changes post game. Zone makes it easier for guys obviously struggling.

[brewcity77]

At this point it really can't get much worse. And for all the dismay over the UNO loss, the staff had to know they were going to run at us. The past three years the Maverick ranked 11, 1, & 4 in adjusted tempo. Now we get to play NJIT, who ranked 50th last year with a pair of quick guards and is playing even faster this year.

We should beat NJIT, but the same could be said about UNO. If Orlando is a dumpster fire...I don't even want to think about it.

[Tugg Speedman]

Brew--

On the zone, I just don't think the team is ready to play Wojo's man. I get why he is doing it because of the points you and Brandx are making about lack of size. Although I am not a fan of switching defenses, I don't think our guards are good enough open court defenders to play his pressure scheme.

I was thinking a 3/4 zone trap to slow the tempo against teams teams like tOSU and UNO. First line is to slow down the pace to burn the shot clock, and then fall into a pack defense or zone. Throw in some junk defense...for example, a box or triangle on their guards yesterday.  That way, if Patterson blows by, there is a zone waiting for him. He was the key. Instead he had a clear lane to the hoop.

That said, MU has four games in seven days....and Luke is back in a couple of weeks, so it is a tough call to work it in with limited practice. To me, with these stats, it makes the decision easier. He strongly hinted at scheme changes post game. Zone makes it easier for guys obviously struggling.

Did any of you see Wojo during the game?  He was angry beyond belief at the defense.  On one time-out he kicked his chair and almost took out an assistant (I think it was Diener).

Question ... are they guys not executing, meaning they are capable but just not doing it?  Or is Wojo delusional in thinking this team can play defense like he wants to?

That is what we will learn over the next few weeks.

[Daniel]

Did any of you see Wojo during the game?  He was angry beyond belief at the defense.  On one time-out he kicked his chair and almost took out an assistant (I think it was Diener).

Question ... are they guys not executing, meaning they are capable but just not doing it?  Or is Wojo delusional in thinking this team can play defense like he wants to?

That is what we will learn over the next few weeks.

I missed the chair thing, but Wojo was jumping up and down at one point not liking what he was seeing.  It must be they practice ok on D, but don't execute in the game.  Of course in practice they are guarding each other - and if they are all slow they they don't get the practice oace they need.  Wojo will figure it out and hopefully increase their effectiveness in stopping dribble drives,betting rebounds, perimeter defenses and transition defense. Lots to do.  But only 3 games in. 

[Ellisium]

Did any of you see Wojo during the game?  He was angry beyond belief at the defense.  On one time-out he kicked his chair and almost took out an assistant (I think it was Diener).

Question ... are they guys not executing, meaning they are capable but just not doing it?  Or is Wojo delusional in thinking this team can play defense like he wants to?

That is what we will learn over the next few weeks.

These guys are capable of hustling and helping out on defense.  Anyone is.  It's just a matter of putting for the effort to do so, of which, this team isn't.  Good to know that Wojo was fired up.  I hope he makes these guys run until they puke in practice.  If this team had hustled the last two games, the outcomes would have been dramatically different.  It's not scheme or talent level.  It's just hustle and effort that is making this team look so down.  

[connie]

Did any of you see Wojo during the game?  He was angry beyond belief at the defense.  On one time-out he kicked his chair and almost took out an assistant (I think it was Diener).

Question ... are they guys not executing, meaning they are capable but just not doing it?  Or is Wojo delusional in thinking this team can play defense like he wants to?

That is what we will learn over the next few weeks.

Heard him once or twice as well.  No, he was NOT happy with the defensive effort.

[muwarrior69]

I looked  up how often UNO scored on trips down the floor:  63% for the game and 72% in the 2nd half where MU lost fast break points 19-9. These are not secondary break points, or possessions with bigs sealing the lanes (which UNO did well), or put backs.  These are primary break points that MU guards are failing to stop nor would a Fischer be fast enough to make it down court that quickly to stop the blow by's.  Fix the scheme or drop your guards back.

You guys make it sound like MU was playing a line up of seven footers.  MU matched up well with Omaha:  5'11, 6'1", 6'2", 6'7", 6'8".  If you cannot make a stop 25% of the trips against that line up, then it will be a long season.  I think there is a lot more talent than that on MU's roster and am far more optimistic it will get figured out.

I hope your right. Just have not seen it yet. I am comfounded as to why our "talented" players who were suppose to be good shooters can't hit squat or miss easy layups. While our opponents "unheralded" players can shoot the lights out seemingly without effort. Pardon my hyperbolic observation.

[Atticus]

If you are going to play zone, you better recruit for it. Do we have the size, wingspan, and athleticism that syracuse teams have? No.

Just curious...what is the issue with "only" having an 8 man rotation? Or even a 7 man rotation? Most teams will be playing that many guys soon enough.

[77ncaachamps]

If you are going to play zone, you better recruit for it. Do we have the size, wingspan, and athleticism that syracuse teams have? No.

Just curious...what is the issue with "only" having an 8 man rotation? Or even a 7 man rotation? Most teams will be playing that many guys soon enough.

This begs the "Where's Dawson? And why is he sitting"" questions.

[Dr. Blackheart]

I hope your right. Just have not seen it yet. I am comfounded as to why our "talented" players who were suppose to be good shooters can't hit squat or miss easy layups. While our opponents "unheralded" players can shoot the lights out seemingly without effort. Pardon my hyperbolic observation.

On two point shooting, MU is 37th in the nation making 56.7% of their shots.  IF they keep that up it would be their best season since at least 2001-02 (which they won't). Defensively, MU' opponents shoot 62.0%!from inside the arc for 341st. In that time, the worse opponent deuce shooting % was 50.3% in Buzz's first year. To date, you can see where the problem lies.

No hyperbole, legit concerns. However, teaching defense is easier than teaching shooting. I think if there is a critique, Wojo has started way too late. Clearly they are not prepared. No time until Xmas break to focus on it in practice, IMO.

[Jay Bee]

On two point shooting, MU is 37th in the nation making 56.7% of their shots.  IF they keep that up it would be their best season since at least 2001-02 (which they won't).  Defensively, MU' opponents shoot 62.0%!from inside the arc for 341st. In that time, the worse opponent deuce shooting % was 50.3% in Buzz's first year. To date, you can see where the problem lies.

No hyperbole, legit concerns. However, teaching defense easier than teaching shooting. I think if there is a critique, Wojo has started way too late. Clearly they are not prepared. No time until Xmas break to focus on it in practice, IMO.

Sadly, MU's opponents are shooting even better from 3-point range than the ridiculously good 62.0% 2FG%.

Obviously both will come down.

Looking at this Georgia Tech game.. ugh... will be another goofy one. They're BIG. Deep. Not amazing stand outs, but lots of guys who can score and.... loads of girth, you might say. Try to kill 'em with quickness?

Guess we need to worry about NJIT first.