Another Theory Bites the Dust - Buzz and his "Maniacal" Substitutions Last Year

[GGGG]

For 2013-14, the high in substitutions was 63 @ DePaul (overtime win).  We also had 59 @ Xavier (loss), 57 against Georgetown (win), and 53 v. Providence (win).  The 26 was the blowout win v. Butler, and 29 in the win v. Xavier.

For 2012-13, the high was 62 in the overtime win @ Pitt.  53 in the loss @ Louisville.  52 sub game was the overtime loss @ Cincy.

[willie warrior]

Thanks for taking the time to tally all of those - must be a slow day at the office.  

I stand corrected.  Oddly with what appears to be the same rates of substitutions between 2013 and 2014 seasons, Buzz refused to substitute out the 2 biggest liabilities on that team, but instead gave them more minutes than any other players.  That was the beef...he jacked around minutes of everyone on the roster other than Derrick and Jake!

 

Of course, which the Sultan conveniently ignores, to preserve his theory that he is the one and only original thinker. The beef was that Derrick was hurting the team by Buzz's "maniacal" insistence that he was "elite" and a "game changer", which any logical original thinker would call "BS" in a minute, except Sultan. Sultan just proved that he will do anything to defend Buzz on that by digging up the above irrelevant data.

[willie warrior]

My guess is the frustration was not about the number of substitutions, but who was being substituted.   It's a corollary to the "its not what is said here, but who says the what."

Exactly--and thank you for that original thought.

[GGGG]

Exactly--and thank you for that original thought.

But that wasn't the theory that was put forward.  Here is what Ners said.  Nowhere does it mention who was being subbed.  Just the subbing patterns in general.

"This simply is not true.  Buzz never was a maniacal with his subbing patterns in any of his previous 5 years as he was last year.  Buzz also never "lost" any of his previous teams, yet it is well known there were plenty of locker room issues with last year's team - and I don't think for one second those issues weren't the result of the players being beyond frustrated with their erratic roles.

Buzz did do some offense/defense subbing with Otule and Gardner historically - but that was very situational specific and player specific.  Buzz also would do "line changes" in non conference play, but never once conference play started would be sub 9 different guys into a game in a 3 minute stretch...at least not that I recall...and if he did historically...it was quite rare..and it didn't happen with near the frequency of what we saw last year.  Never in 30 years of playing/watching basketball closely had I ever seen coaching as bizarre as what we saw last year."

[Tums Festival]

Sultan, 

Do they give a conference or D1 average to compare that too?

According to this article, the average number of substitutions in a college basketball game is 32, which puts Brent's numbers at the maniacal end of the scale.

http://www.nycbuckets.com/2013/12/army-lafayette-push-substitutions-limit/

[NersEllenson]

But that wasn't the theory that was put forward.  Here is what Ners said.  Nowhere does it mention who was being subbed.  Just the subbing patterns in general.

"This simply is not true.  Buzz never was a maniacal with his subbing patterns in any of his previous 5 years as he was last year.  Buzz also never "lost" any of his previous teams, yet it is well known there were plenty of locker room issues with last year's team - and I don't think for one second those issues weren't the result of the players being beyond frustrated with their erratic roles.

Buzz did do some offense/defense subbing with Otule and Gardner historically - but that was very situational specific and player specific.  Buzz also would do "line changes" in non conference play, but never once conference play started would be sub 9 different guys into a game in a 3 minute stretch...at least not that I recall...and if he did historically...it was quite rare..and it didn't happen with near the frequency of what we saw last year.  Never in 30 years of playing/watching basketball closely had I ever seen coaching as bizarre as what we saw last year."

I felt Buzz did do more subbing last season in conference play than I recalled in prior years..yet your data shows otherwise.  What is mind numbing in light of the data...and was last year...was that through even all of those substitutions Buzz could never seem to get over the idea that he had to have Derrick and Jake on the floor 30+ in 90% of our games...and often times on the floor together...which was a HUGE flaw.  You cannot have a backcourt where one guy is ZERO threat to score from 3, and the other guys is a ZERO threat to score from 2.  What did Jake have, 9 made 2 point FGs in an entire season?  That's insanely horrific for a starting 2 Guard.

[NersEllenson]

According to this article, the average number of substitutions in a college basketball game is 32, which puts Brent's numbers at the maniacal end of the scale.

http://www.nycbuckets.com/2013/12/army-lafayette-push-substitutions-limit/

Interesting article.  So as of December 22, 2013 MU averaged 37 substitutions per game..still quite high...yet during conference play (per Sultan's data) that number escalated to 43 per game...the exact opposite of what most coaches tend to do....which is to shorten the rotation as the season goes on.  Buzz definitely was on the far end of the bell curve...and it is quite odd considering he had his most veteran team at MU, and didn't have to deal with any injuries.

[willie warrior]

Interesting article.  So as of December 22, 2013 MU averaged 37 substitutions per game..still quite high...yet during conference play (per Sultan's data) that number escalated to 43 per game...the exact opposite of what most coaches tend to do....which is to shorten the rotation as the season goes on.  Buzz definitely was on the far end of the bell curve...and it is quite odd considering he had his most veteran team at MU, and didn't have to deal with any injuries.

Man Ners, why would you put in something like that, an original thought, to put doubt on the Sultan's theory?

[willie warrior]

But that wasn't the theory that was put forward.  Here is what Ners said.  Nowhere does it mention who was being subbed.  Just the subbing patterns in general.

"This simply is not true.  Buzz never was a maniacal with his subbing patterns in any of his previous 5 years as he was last year.  Buzz also never "lost" any of his previous teams, yet it is well known there were plenty of locker room issues with last year's team - and I don't think for one second those issues weren't the result of the players being beyond frustrated with their erratic roles.

Buzz did do some offense/defense subbing with Otule and Gardner historically - but that was very situational specific and player specific.  Buzz also would do "line changes" in non conference play, but never once conference play started would be sub 9 different guys into a game in a 3 minute stretch...at least not that I recall...and if he did historically...it was quite rare..and it didn't happen with near the frequency of what we saw last year.  Never in 30 years of playing/watching basketball closely had I ever seen coaching as bizarre as what we saw last year."

Sultan--do everybody a favor--quit defending the phony cowboy--he has been shown the door. Time to turn the page to new chapter. AB--after Buzz

[tower912]

Going back to what Buzz said about his best defenders not being his best offensive players and vice versa.   Oxtule alone was probably good for at least a dozen.   Sultan documented how many times that Deonte was subbed in and out during the last 7:30 of the Xavier game when the perception was that he sat the whole time.   If anything, it says that the coach never found a rotation he was comfortable with or enough players he could count on game in and game out. 

[NersEllenson]

Going back to what Buzz said about his best defenders not being his best offensive players and vice versa.   Oxtule alone was probably good for at least a dozen.   Sultan documented how many times that Deonte was subbed in and out during the last 7:30 of the Xavier game when the perception was that he sat the whole time.   If anything, it says that the coach never found a rotation he was comfortable with or enough players he could count on game in and game out. 

You can't count on guys game in and game out when you yank their minutes and role all over the place.  Yet, Buzz refused to change the role of the two guys 90 percent of the fanbase felt were obvious candidates.  That was the ultimate irony of last season's "coaching" job.

[GGGG]

Sultan--do everybody a favor--quit defending the phony cowboy--he has been shown the door. Time to turn the page to new chapter. AB--after Buzz

Sorry but if someone is going to state something that is objectively wrong, I am going to correct it.  You can put me on ignore if that bothers you.

[GGGG]

Interesting article.  So as of December 22, 2013 MU averaged 37 substitutions per game..still quite high...yet during conference play (per Sultan's data) that number escalated to 43 per game...the exact opposite of what most coaches tend to do....which is to shorten the rotation as the season goes on.  Buzz definitely was on the far end of the bell curve...and it is quite odd considering he had his most veteran team at MU, and didn't have to deal with any injuries.

You can shorten the rotation and still have more substitutions.  I interpret it as more substitutions due to closer games.

[Lennys Tap]

Look, no one is questioning the number of substitutions. heck, Half of them probably were Oxtule changes.

What I did have a problem with was when it became apparent the season was lost, there was no effort to get experience for our freshmen for this year. I thought with six or seven games left, while most of this board was thinking "NCAA," I was thinking 2014-2015. I was hoping that Jujuan, for instance, would have more time. I was hoping John Dawson could make his mistakes last year.

When I think maniacal substitutions, that's what I think.

Complaint #1: Buzz intentionally threw games by playing Derrick and Jake.

Complaint #2: Buzz tried too hard to win games by playing Derrick and Jake .

Didn't try hard enough, tried too hard at the expense of this year. When you don't win, you can't win.

[tower912]

You can't count on guys game in and game out when you yank their minutes and role all over the place.  Yet, Buzz refused to change the role of the two guys 90 percent of the fanbase felt were obvious candidates.  That was the ultimate irony of last season's "coaching" job.

And we are back to the chicken or the egg argument.   Did Buzz not play Dawson and JJJ more because he  didn't think they were good enough, or were they not good enough because he wouldn't play them more?

[Lennys Tap]

My guess is the frustration was not about the number of substitutions, but who was being substituted.   It's a corollary to the "its not what is said here, but who says the what."

LOL. There's been a lot of debate here about just what happened last season. Some of it's been angry and heated, but not once have I heard anyone on either side cop a whiny, I'm a victim, it's not what I said, you're picking on me attitude. That's been your exclusive province and it knows no corollary.

[muwarrior69]

I don't care. All I want to know is how well Wojo coaches and we play this season.

[NersEllenson]

And we are back to the chicken or the egg argument.   Did Buzz not play Dawson and JJJ more because he  didn't think they were good enough, or were they not good enough because he wouldn't play them more?

There may be validity to your point, yet Burton was named All Big East freshman team and only averaged 12 minutes per game, or 7 less than the next closest freshman on that team. Burton was probably ready to play from Day 1 of the season, yet he struggled to get time.

Mayo could have been given more minutes prior to the last 8 games of the season when Buzz finally let him play through mistakes etc.

Maybe neither Dawson nor JJJ were going to be better options than Derrick/Jake...yet I certainly would have liked to see more of them to see what they could do if/when given 30 minutes a game like Derrick and Jake got game after game after game.

At minimum if not that, Buzz never should have paired Derrick and Jake together for 30 a game..

[Dr. Blackheart]

Pomeroy has an algorithm termed "Most Frequent Line-Ups Last 5 Games" that he introduced in 2014 (no history). Since these games are generally reflective of teams' best line-ups as they try to finish the season on a high note, these should be representative of of how a coach plays to win via substitution patterns--one might assume (KPom lists the top 10 line-ups).

>>Marquette's top two line-ups played 33.1% of the minutes. Steve Taylor and JJJ (as well as Duane, and McKay) were not even noted in the top 10 combos. So, only nine players for Buzz to willingly choose from, as we know now, ST. and JJJ were out the door.

>>Of the Top 15 Pomeroy teams, the average of the top two line-ups was 41.1% of the minutes. So, top teams play a more set line-up. Florida (28.8%), Kansas (30.9%), Nova (33.0%), Witchita State (34.6%) and Louisville (35.5%) were all in MU's range, however. Common among these: All are deep and like to play full pressure (pressing) defense unlike MU, so deeper bench and more of a need for breathers.

>>Common among the Top 15 teams, all are excellent at defensive possession length (way above average in forcing opponents to use the clock). MU's defense also was way above average on this, but their offensive possessions were way shorter than average (18.9 seconds on defense, 17.2 on offense--a significant 1.7 difference).

>>My conclusion: Buzz was trying to win by defense by subbing offense for defense. On offense, he was trying to win by playing Mayo more to hit the seams quicker, by loading it up to Gardner in the paint to be fouled, and also subbing in Burton on offense to flash the paint.

Good strategy on paper, choppy substitution patterns, with mediocre/poor results because of the low usage guys.

[Dawson Rental]

According to this article, the average number of substitutions in a college basketball game is 32, which puts Brent's numbers at the maniacal end of the scale.

http://www.nycbuckets.com/2013/12/army-lafayette-push-substitutions-limit/

So, Buzz substituted "at the maniacal end of the scale" in 2012-13 and in 2013-14, and in the former case it lead to a NCAA elite eight berth while in the later case it led to a team missing both the NCAA and the NIT.  With such divergent results, how can labeling his substitution frequency as "at the maniacal end of the scale" have any meaning at all?

[Dawson Rental]

My guess is the frustration was not about the number of substitutions, but who was being substituted.   It's a corollary to the "its not what is said here, but who says the what."

Please reacquaint yourself with the meaning of corollary as your corollary is giving me a coronary.

[Dawson Rental]

There may be validity to your point, yet Burton was named All Big East freshman team and only averaged 12 minutes per game, or 7 less than the next closest freshman on that team. Burton was probably ready to play from Day 1 of the season, yet he struggled to get time.

Mayo could have been given more minutes prior to the last 8 games of the season when Buzz finally let him play through mistakes etc.

Maybe neither Dawson nor JJJ were going to be better options than Derrick/Jake...yet I certainly would have liked to see more of them to see what they could do if/when given 30 minutes a game like Derrick and Jake got game after game after game.

At minimum if not that, Buzz never should have paired Derrick and Jake together for 30 a game..

I see it this way, Ners.  Buzz was well aware that the chips were stacked against him playing Derrick and Jake as much as he did.  But when he put the freshmen guards out there they made a lot of defensive mistakes.  So, when Buzz continued with heavy minutes for Derrick and Jake it was because he preferred to lose a close game (with a possibility of lucking into a win) to being blown out.

[MU82]

Buzz coached the same way in 2013-2014 that he did in all the previous seasons of his tenure.

Only difference is that it didn't work this time, so we got sick of it.

He had to choose between doubling down on what he knew or risk trying something new. In hindsight, he made the wrong choice. But if we had won, we would have called him a genius.

I won't argue with this. All I'll say is that a good coach is capable of altering his strategy as situations dictate.

Don Shula lived to run the football. He was all about Csonka up the middle, Morris right and Kiick left. He'd run on third-and-8. Griese threw 11 passes in SB7 and 7 in SB8. Can you imagine any quarterback throwing only 7 passes in any game, let alone a Super Bowl? Yes, those were different times, but no other SB QB threw 18 passes in two games!

Then Shula drafted Marino. Shula surrounded him with great receivers and the Dolphins started throwing the ball 30, 40, 50 times a game.

Oh, and Shula benched the NFL player of the year during a playoff game that was tied at halftime. And he repeatedly benched his starting quarterback during the 1982 season, which ended with the Super Bowl.

Great coaches do what they have to do to win. Buzz did what he wanted to do, or maybe it was the only thing he knew how to do. It was a flaw of his. And remember, I was an ardent Buzz supporter until well into last January; I think I was the first guy willie ever accused of being a "slurper." But I can change when necessary, too!

[NersEllenson]

I see it this way, Ners.  Buzz was well aware that the chips were stacked against him playing Derrick and Jake as much as he did.  But when he put the freshmen guards out there they made a lot of defensive mistakes.  So, when Buzz continued with heavy minutes for Derrick and Jake it was because he preferred to lose a close game (with a possibility of lucking into a win) to being blown out.

I'd be fine with this theory and if that was Buzz's approach - yet my beef was that he basically REFUSED to deviate from it, and even give the freshman a legitimate game or two of real experience, and a real ability to play through mistakes.  Nothing erodes your confidence faster than a coach who yanks you out after 1 mistake...and if you begin to realize "I'll be yanked if I screw up once," you play tight, and that alone leads to poor play.

I felt Buzz had enough data to show that we weren't going to win many games, or beat anyone of consequence if he continued down the max minute Derrick and Jake path.

What's crazy about last year's substitution patterns compared to Elite 8 year....is that he subbed just as much as he did during the great season, yet basically refused to sub for the two guys who were the weakest links on last year's team!!  So he's making all these lineup tinkers last season...without addressing the two that were plain as day to everyone that were the source of the problem. 

Maybe Dawson wasn't the answer...and perhaps the team could have been a winner if Buzz at least surrounded Derrick with guys that could all score...Mayo, Burton, Jamil, Gardner....yet he limited Burton and Mayo's minutes on a team that was starved for offense...and Mayo at least is a good defender, and Burton was a very disruptive defender..yet perhaps not the best on ball..

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

I won't argue with this. All I'll say is that a good coach is capable of altering his strategy as situations dictate.

Don Shula lived to run the football. He was all about Csonka up the middle, Morris right and Kiick left. He'd run on third-and-8. Griese threw 11 passes in SB7 and 7 in SB8. Can you imagine any quarterback throwing only 7 passes in any game, let alone a Super Bowl? Yes, those were different times, but no other SB QB threw 18 passes in two games!

Then Shula drafted Marino. Shula surrounded him with great receivers and the Dolphins started throwing the ball 30, 40, 50 times a game.

Oh, and Shula benched the NFL player of the year during a playoff game that was tied at halftime. And he repeatedly benched his starting quarterback during the 1982 season, which ended with the Super Bowl.

Great coaches do what they have to do to win. Buzz did what he wanted to do, or maybe it was the only thing he knew how to do. It was a flaw of his. And remember, I was an ardent Buzz supporter until well into last January; I think I was the first guy willie ever accused of being a "slurper." But I can change when necessary, too!

I don't disagree that a coach has to be able to adapt. Clearly, Buzz needed to do a better job last season mixing and matching to get better performance out of his guards. We can agree on that.

But, at the time, Buzz was employing the same technique that had worked for him in the past. We all cheered when his loyalty to trent was rewarded. What if Vander's shot(s) in March had rolled off of the rim? Would we have been ripping Buzz back then? Such a fine line, especially that season.

I'm just rambling on because some people wanted to crown Buzz the king of MU hoops when he was winning, but then when he lost, they want him run out of town. I think that's unfair. He coached the same way last season.

He should've adapted, and that's a fair critique... but I don't think he went from an amazing coach to a terrible coach. His moves worked out in previous years. Last year, they didn't. It happens.