[PaintTouches]Tempered expectations reign in Marquette previews

[PaintTouchesSays]

Tempered expectations reign in Marquette previews

Going into last season, Marquette was a consensus top-20 team, coming off three consecutive Sweet-16s and deemed a heavy favorite to repeat as Big East champs.  My how things change. After failing to live up to those lofty predictions, losing 70 percent of the offense, failing to make the NCAA Tournament and seeing Buzz Williams […]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://pixel.wp.com/b.gif?host=painttouches.com&blog=28348875&post=12101&subd=painttouches&ref=&feed=1" width="1" height="1" />

Source: Tempered expectations reign in Marquette previews

[jsglow]

Reeks 'conventional wisdom' to me.  I believe we'll overperform expectations and finish in the top 1/2 of the conference.

[tower912]

If I saw another team from a power conference that graduated 70% of its scoring, had its leading returning scorer booted from the team, was going to start the year with a new coach and a new system, with nobody over 6'7  until mid-December and 9 and 10 scholarship players available due to a highly touted freshman class being reduced to 1 player, I wonder what kind of year I would predict for them.     I hope with every fiber of my being that MU outperforms these expectations.   But the national perspective is based on these facts and not our hopes.   

[mu03eng]

Reeks 'conventional wisdom' to me.  I believe we'll overperform expectations and finish in the top 1/2 of the conference.

Not being flippant, but based on what?  What do you point at to say we will out perform expectations?

I posted this in another thread and it will be part of the podcast this weekend, but take a look at the returning minutes

Total    Ave   Max Duane Wilson   0   0.0   0 John Dawson   245   7.7   31 Sandy Cohen   0   0.0   0 Juan Anderson   417   13.0   26 Derrick Wilson   987   30.8   47 Matt Carlino   954   29.8   44 Jajuan Johnson   283   8.8   27 Steve Taylor Jr   237   7.4   23 Deonte Burton   402   12.6   26 Luke Fischer   130   4.1   19

We have so little returning experience that this season will have to be learning.  Theoretically, there is a lot of talent but will it turn out to be real and come together to finish above .500?

Look at the assumptions you'd have to make:
-Burton can double his minutes average and still be as efficient on both ends of the court
-Teve can expand his minutes significantly while scoring and rebounding while playing out of position some of the time
-Luke Fischer will contribute significant minutes 20+ a game and provide scoring in the post in spite of only 11 games of experience.
-Derrick Wilson will have an improved shot that will increase the offensive efficiency.
-Matt Carlino can come in and play off the ball and score efficiently
-Duane Wilson can play 15-20 minutes a game and be a strong scorer and defender
-JJJ will play 20 minutes a game, a strong perimeter shooter who can create for himself as well.  Can guard the 3.

All of these things could happen, but they HAVE to happen for this team to be above average.  I don't know that we can do that.

[Galway Eagle]

Not being flippant, but based on what?  What do you point at to say we will out perform expectations?

I posted this in another thread and it will be part of the podcast this weekend, but take a look at the returning minutes

Total    Ave   Max Duane Wilson   0   0.0   0 John Dawson   245   7.7   31 Sandy Cohen   0   0.0   0 Juan Anderson   417   13.0   26 Derrick Wilson   987   30.8   47 Matt Carlino   954   29.8   44 Jajuan Johnson   283   8.8   27 Steve Taylor Jr   237   7.4   23 Deonte Burton   402   12.6   26 Luke Fischer   130   4.1   19

We have so little returning experience that this season will have to be learning.  Theoretically, there is a lot of talent but will it turn out to be real and come together to finish above .500?

Look at the assumptions you'd have to make:
-Burton can double his minutes average and still be as efficient on both ends of the court
-Teve can expand his minutes significantly while scoring and rebounding while playing out of position some of the time
-Luke Fischer will contribute significant minutes 20+ a game and provide scoring in the post in spite of only 11 games of experience.
-Derrick Wilson will have an improved shot that will increase the offensive efficiency.
-Matt Carlino can come in and play off the ball and score efficiently
-Duane Wilson can play 15-20 minutes a game and be a strong scorer and defender
-JJJ will play 20 minutes a game, a strong perimeter shooter who can create for himself as well.  Can guard the 3.

All of these things could happen, but they HAVE to happen for this team to be above average.  I don't know that we can do that.

How much did we have returning when the big three were thrown into the starting lineup as freshmen? Or after they left?

[jsglow]

Not being flippant, but based on what?  What do you point at to say we will out perform expectations?

I posted this in another thread and it will be part of the podcast this weekend, but take a look at the returning minutes

Total    Ave   Max Duane Wilson   0   0.0   0 John Dawson   245   7.7   31 Sandy Cohen   0   0.0   0 Juan Anderson   417   13.0   26 Derrick Wilson   987   30.8   47 Matt Carlino   954   29.8   44 Jajuan Johnson   283   8.8   27 Steve Taylor Jr   237   7.4   23 Deonte Burton   402   12.6   26 Luke Fischer   130   4.1   19

We have so little returning experience that this season will have to be learning.  Theoretically, there is a lot of talent but will it turn out to be real and come together to finish above .500?

Look at the assumptions you'd have to make:
-Burton can double his minutes average and still be as efficient on both ends of the court
-Teve can expand his minutes significantly while scoring and rebounding while playing out of position some of the time
-Luke Fischer will contribute significant minutes 20+ a game and provide scoring in the post in spite of only 11 games of experience.
-Derrick Wilson will have an improved shot that will increase the offensive efficiency.
-Matt Carlino can come in and play off the ball and score efficiently
-Duane Wilson can play 15-20 minutes a game and be a strong scorer and defender
-JJJ will play 20 minutes a game, a strong perimeter shooter who can create for himself as well.  Can guard the 3.

All of these things could happen, but they HAVE to happen for this team to be above average.  I don't know that we can do that.

My gut tells me that just as last year's expectations were too high, many in the national media have set this year's too low.  Lots of folks point to the loss of our core players.  Idk, seems like our core players from last year got us to the lofty perch of 17-15.

[Henry Sugar]

How much did we have returning when the big three were thrown into the starting lineup as freshmen? Or after they left?

Well, the three amigos got to play with Steve Novak, who is the best shooter in MU history. Plus, some experienced and serviceable bigs in Barro and Grimm. To round it out, there was Joe Chapman and Dan Fitzgerald.

After they left, there was senior Lazar Hayward and junior JFB, plus two seniors in Acker/Cubillan. JFB was the most efficient returning player in the BE. And then DJO.

In other words, the Amigos got to play with more height and more experience. After they left, there was also more experience (but not more height). For both teams, until proven otherwise, there was more talent.

[LAMUfan]

we will finish ahead of butler, that I know for sure

[bilsu]

we will finish ahead of butler, that I know for sure

I agree with that, but I think we finish behind DePaul.

[Galway Eagle]

My gut tells me that just as last year's expectations were too high, many in the national media have set this year's too low.  Lots of folks point to the loss of our core players.  Idk, seems like our core players from last year got us to the lofty perch of 17-15.

That's exactly how I see it. Not sayin we will be better but I find the reasoning we will be worse faulty.  

Well, the three amigos got to play with Steve Novak, who is the best shooter in MU history. Plus, some experienced and serviceable bigs in Barro and Grimm. To round it out, there was Joe Chapman and Dan Fitzgerald.

After they left, there was senior Lazar Hayward and junior JFB, plus two seniors in Acker/Cubillan. JFB was the most efficient returning player in the BE. And then DJO.

In other words, the Amigos got to play with more height and more experience. After they left, there was also more experience (but not more height). For both teams, until proven otherwise, there was more talent.

Forgot they played with Novak.  Senior lazar I'll give you that (never realized how effective he was as a junior to) but nobody foresaw jimmy or DJO becoming what they were that year come on.  And if I remember correctly everybody hates acker till he started lighting it up from 3.  

[ChitownSpaceForRent]

My gut tells me that just as last year's expectations were too high, many in the national media have set this year's too low.  Lots of folks point to the loss of our core players.  Idk, seems like our core players from last year got us to the lofty perch of 17-15.

Yup, not sure im quite as optimistic as you with coming in first or 2nd in the conference but all of that scoring that left missed the NIT tourney as well. To be honest I think losing Jamil is going to be the biggest addition by subtraction for this years team, and Buzz.

[Henry Sugar]

That's exactly how I see it. Not sayin we will be better but I find the reasoning we will be worse faulty.  

Forgot they played with Novak.  Senior lazar I'll give you that (never realized how effective he was as a junior to) but nobody foresaw jimmy or DJO becoming what they were that year come on.  And if I remember correctly everybody hates acker till he started lighting it up from 3.  

We foresaw Jimmy being good. As a sophomore, he was the #4 most efficient player in the nation and going into his junior year he was the most efficient returning player in the BE.

You're right there there may be a "DJO" or even an "Acker" on this year's roster.

My big concern is that there is basically nobody efficient returning on MU's roster. JJJ was above 100 in limited minutes. FST was somewhat efficient as a freshman. Everyone else was, well, not great. Where's the offense going to come from?

[Nevada233]

Hey the #1 Team in College Football the Mississippi State Bulldogs were picked to finish last in the SEC.

Its not about the size of the dog in the fight... But the size of the fight in the dog....

I believe in WOJO.................

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

we will finish ahead of butler, that I know for sure

With Butler returning three starters and getting Jones back from injury? I wouldn't be so sure. On paper they should be better than us. I do think we will because games are not played on paper and the whole coach health situation is troubling.

[mu03eng]

That's exactly how I see it. Not sayin we will be better but I find the reasoning we will be worse faulty.  

Forgot they played with Novak.  Senior lazar I'll give you that (never realized how effective he was as a junior to) but nobody foresaw jimmy or DJO becoming what they were that year come on.  And if I remember correctly everybody hates acker till he started lighting it up from 3.  

I am absolutely praying you did this on purpose, if so I will concede all arguments to you, hence forward.

[mu03eng]

How much did we have returning when the big three were thrown into the starting lineup as freshmen? Or after they left?

Last year before the Amigos
Travis Diener
Steve Novak
Dameon Mason
Joe Chapman
Ryan Amoroso
Todd Townsend
Marcus Jackson
Ousmane Barro
Mike Kinsella
Chris Grimm
Niv Berkowitz
Rob Hanley
Shane Grube


First Amigos year
Steve Novak
Dominic James
Jerel McNeal
Wesley Matthews
Joe Chapman
Dan Fitzgerald
Ryan Amoroso
Ousmane Barro
Jamil Lott
Chris Grimm
Mike Kinsella
Dwight Burke
Tommy Brice

[ChitownSpaceForRent]

With Butler returning three starters and getting Jones back from injury? I wouldn't be so sure. On paper they should be better than us. I do think we will because games are not played on paper and the whole coach health situation is troubling.

I am. Dont think Butler is nearly as good as you are giving them credit for. Everybody praises Dunham but I just havnt seen that progress everybody keeps mentioning. Kinda like Dekker. Jones, yea hes back but hes coming off a major injury, you dont know how that effects a guys confidence.

[swoopem]

With Butler returning three starters and getting Jones back from injury? I wouldn't be so sure. On paper they should be better than us. I do think we will because games are not played on paper and the whole coach health situation is troubling.

If you want, I'll make a bet with you that we finish ahead of Butler this year? Maybe I'm nuts, but I actually think we're gonna be really good (already have a $100 on us making the dance).

[4everwarriors]

Hey the #1 Team in College Football the Mississippi State Bulldogs were picked to finish last in the SEC.

Its not about the size of the dog in the fight... But the size of the fight in the dog....

I believe in WOJO.................

Size does matter, hey?

[tower912]

We have so little returning experience that this season will have to be learning.  Theoretically, there is a lot of talent but will it turn out to be real and come together to finish above .500?

Look at the assumptions you'd have to make:
-Burton can double his minutes average and still be as efficient on both ends of the court
-Teve can expand his minutes significantly while scoring and rebounding while playing out of position some of the time
-Luke Fischer will contribute significant minutes 20+ a game and provide scoring in the post in spite of only 11 games of experience.
-Derrick Wilson will have an improved shot that will increase the offensive efficiency.
-Matt Carlino can come in and play off the ball and score efficiently
-Duane Wilson can play 15-20 minutes a game and be a strong scorer and defender
-JJJ will play 20 minutes a game, a strong perimeter shooter who can create for himself as well.  Can guard the 3.

All of these things could happen, but they HAVE to happen for this team to be above average.  I don't know that we can do that.

Don't forget that for all of these things to happen, a first year, first time coach is going to have to be really good.    Juan is going to have to make a quantum leap and regain trust in his shot.    I want all of these things to happen.    To actually bank on them is foolhardy. 

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

If you want, I'll make a bet with you that we finish ahead of Butler this year? Maybe I'm nuts, but I actually think we're gonna be really good (already have a $100 on us making the dance).

Not gonna take that bet because I too think we will be better. I was just saying that on paper Butler is going to be the better team, so it makes sense that we would be ranked below them preseason.

[NersEllenson]

There is absolutely zero one can base MU having a good season on other than believing:

Last year's freshman who were wrongly relegated to the bench take big steps up.

You believe Buzz turned in an awful coaching job last season.


I believe both of the above are true, and in spite of losing our top 4 scorers from last season, being undersized and having a rookie head coach - we will finish at least 17-15 - and likely slightly better.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I am. Dont think Butler is nearly as good as you are giving them credit for. Everybody praises Dunham but I just havnt seen that progress everybody keeps mentioning. Kinda like Dekker. Jones, yea hes back but hes coming off a major injury, you dont know how that effects a guys confidence.

Butler was top 100 last season and we were top 80. On paper, we lose a lot more than they do and gain about the same.

Not sure about your comments on Dunham. You are aware he went from scoring 9.5 ppg as a freshman to 16.4 ppg as sophomore? I would call that progress. He had a better year last season than anyone on our team did.

All that being said, I do think we finish ahead of them. We have a case of addition by subtraction and they are dealing with an indefinite coaching absence

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

There is absolutely zero one can base MU having a good season on other than believing:

Last year's freshman who were wrongly relegated to the bench take big steps up.

You believe Buzz turned in an awful coaching job last season.


I believe both of the above are true, and in spite of losing our top 4 scorers from last season, being undersized and having a rookie head coach - we will finish at least 17-15 - and likely slightly better.

I don't think that's true. I think you can believe that last year's freshman will take big steps up without believing that they were wrongly relegated to the bench. I think you can also believe that by bringing in Carlino and getting Duane Wilson back from injury (and JJJ/Dawson getting more experience), that this team will get better just because they cured what ailed them the most, scoring from the perimeter.

[NersEllenson]

I don't think that's true. I think you can believe that last year's freshman will take big steps up without believing that they were wrongly relegated to the bench. I think you can also believe that by bringing in Carlino and getting Duane Wilson back from injury (and JJJ/Dawson getting more experience), that this team will get better just because they cured what ailed them the most, scoring from the perimeter.

Considering who they were playing behind and their "production," yes, they were wrongly relegated to the bench last season - all of them:  Burton, JJJ and Dawson.

Certainly adding Carlino is an upgrade to the backcourt given his experience and ability to score at the high major level up to this point.  HIghly doubt Duane would have made any kind of impact as Buzz proved last season he had a major thorn in his ass toward playing freshman - but he should definitely add value this season as he'll get a fair chance at PT along with JJJ and Dawson.