Projected 2014-15 Big East standings
1. Villanova | 2. Xavier | 3. Georgetown | 4. Providence | 5. St. John's | 6. Marquette | 7. Seton Hall | 8. Creighton | 9. Butler | 10. DePaulStranger things have happened in college basketball than Villanova potentially not winning the Big East in 2014-15. Honestly, stranger things have happened just within the Big East over the past few months than Villanova not winning the league title this upcoming season.
Buzz Williams is now the head coach at Virginia Tech; Seton Hall's Kevin Willard has a higher rated crop of freshmen than Florida's Billy Donovan; and a new DePaul arena that has triggered lawsuits, elicited the open opposition of the school's faculty and earned the resentment of many Chicago taxpayers is somehow still on track to open in 2016.
Villanova not winning the Big East wouldn't hold a candle to any of the above in terms of improbability, but you do have to like the defending Big East champs' chances. The Wildcats' status as heavy favorites stems from two sources.
2014-15 All-Big East team
Pos. Name Team Year
G D'Vauntes Smith-Rivera Georgetown Jr.
G Deonte Burton Marquette Soph.G Darrun Hilliard Villanova Sr.
F JayVaughn Pinkston Villanova Sr.
C Matt Stainbrook Xavier Sr.
First, coach Jay Wright returns Darrun Hilliard, JayVaughn Pinkston, Ryan Arcidiacono and Daniel Ochefu from a starting lineup that went 16-2 in this league last season. Second, Doug McDermott is no longer present in this league, and it's not readily apparent that a conference with several good teams can produce one really good rival to seriously threaten Nova.
If the improbable does happen yet again, however, and some other team has the effrontery to snatch the title away from Villanova, I'll nominate Xavier as the most likely Cinderella. In theory, we should be feeling sorry for Chris Mack, who lost not only Semaj Christon but also Justin Martin and Isaiah Philmore. True enough, but the Musketeers also happen to have the Big East's best two-way big man in Matt Stainbrook, a future star in freshman Trevon Bluiett and enough point guards to play four opponents at once.
Mack is beloved by pluralists everywhere for being one of the few head coaches in Division I who isn't an essentialist when it comes to defensive schemes. The Musketeers keep opponents guessing by mixing man and zone, though lately, the resulting stats have more closely resembled the handiwork of the latter than the former. Teams playing Xavier tend to shoot a very high number of 3s and not worry too much about committing turnovers. If fewer of those opponents' shots from beyond the arc fall this season, the Musketeers can look better on D in a hurry.
Last season, Georgetown fell between two stools, so to speak. The good news was that D'Vauntes Smith-Rivera continued to develop into one of the nation's finest scoring guards, while Markel Starks capped off his career by making first-team All-Big East as a senior. But a solid backcourt alone couldn't make up for Otto Porter's departure, and when UCLA transfer Josh Smith failed to follow up on a very encouraging debut (25 points in 27 minutes against Oregon) and instead earned an academic suspension, John Thompson III's team lost five consecutive games in January and never fully recovered.
With or without contributions from Smith (who has picked up where Renardo Sidney left off and is now the Godot for whom college hoops observers must forever wait), Thompson will entrust his offense to Smith-Rivera and top-40 freshmen Isaac Copeland, L.J. Peak and Paul White. If the Hoyas rebound from last season's uncharacteristically listless showing on D, this team is talented enough to not only return to the NCAA tournament but to do so with a high seed.
For Providence coach Ed Cooley, the wait for Kris Dunn is, apparently, over. Dunn was a top-25 prospect nationally in the recruiting class of 2012, but shoulder injuries have limited him to just 18 starts over two seasons. In those brief appearances, the 6-foot-3 Dunn has been strictly a pass-always point guard, but if full health makes him more assertive he'll be a huge factor, along with LaDontae Henton and Tyler Harris, as the Friars address a rather formidable challenge.
Bryce Cotton has left the Dunkin' Center (Providence's home court), and, to employ terminology well suited to the arena's sponsor, that really does leave a gaping hole. (Ask North Carolina. In Providence's 79-77 loss to the Tar Heels in the round of 64, Cotton lit up UNC for 36 points and eight assists.) Cooley will try to offset that absence with the deepest roster he's had yet at PC.
St. John's had the best defense in the Big East last season, and, if JaKarr Sampson's early departure to play pro ball means more minutes for 6-foot-9 junior Chris Obekpa, there's a very good chance Steve Lavin's men will hold on to this distinction again in 2014-15. Obekpa might be the finest rim protector in all of Division I.
On offense, 6-4 senior D'Angelo Harrison is back for one last round of feast-or-famine hoops. If he's fouled -- he draws six whistles per 40 minutes -- he will almost certainly make you pay, hitting 86 percent of his attempts at the line. But if you don't foul him -- and you shouldn't -- he will almost certainly miss his 2-point attempt.
In 2013-14 there were just three players in the entire country who attempted at least 250 shots inside the arc and connected at a lower rate than Harrison (39 percent). Then again, if the proverbial breakout season arrives on schedule for highly acclaimed sophomore point guard Rysheed Jordan, Harrison may have to carry less of the load as a senior.
At Marquette last season the initial surprise came when the Golden Eagles missed the NCAA tournament for the first time in nine years. Then, a second, and much larger, shock arrived: It wasn't so much that Williams left Al McGuire's chair as that he would do so to take the job at Virginia Tech. The Hokies have not exactly been building Marquette-like multiyear NCAA tournament appearance streaks of late.
Now the MU program is in Steve Wojciechowski's hands, and the first-year coach will set to work trying to improve an offense that had much more in common with Butler and DePaul in terms of shooting from the field than it did with Creighton or Villanova. Maybe Deonte Burton can be part of the new regime's solution.
The last time we saw the 6-4 Burton, he was scoring a career-high 23 points on just 14 shots in a losing effort against Xavier in the Big East tournament. Wojo's sophomore should form one half of a solid nucleus alongside BYU transfer Matt Carlino. And if additional contributions should be forthcoming from top-100 freshman Sandy Cohen, redshirt freshman Duane Wilson and/or Indiana transfer Luke Fischer (eligible as of mid-December), Marquette could surprise almost as many people as Buzz did.
Willard has brought in a freshman class at Seton Hall that ESPN rates as superior to the ones signed by Florida, Texas and Syracuse, to name but a few. Landing two highly coveted NYC prospects like Isaiah Whitehead and Angel Delgado should boost the program's stature and position the Pirates for future successes on the recruiting trail. If you saw this paragraph coming a year ago, take one step forward and accept my salute.
About this 2014-15 season in particular, however, I do have a couple concerns, even with Whitehead and Delgado joining Sterling Gibbs (aka The Villanova Slayer). First, Fuquan Edwin is gone. It will be difficult for any two players to combine an outrageously high steal rate and a huge role in the offense with 50 percent shooting or better on 2s the way Edwin did as a senior.
Second, the Pirates are apparently under instructions to refrain from trying to get offensive boards. Willard is certainly not the only member of his profession to cherish this particular preference, but seeing as his was the No. 1 defensive rebounding team in the league last season, it's possible there's an opportunity cost being incurred here.
Ronald Martinez/Getty Images
Austin Chatman will have to step up offensively to fill the void left by Doug McDermott.
Delgado is reputed to be a force of nature on the glass, and in Big East play last season the Hall's shooting from the field was measurably superior to its actual scoring per turnover-less possession. It's almost as if some mysterious, unseen force is pulling against what would otherwise be a pretty good offense. Lift the ban, Coach.
Creighton must replace not only the No. 5 scorer in the history of Division I basketball (that would be McDermott) but three other starters as well (Jahenns Manigat, Ethan Wragge and Grant Gibbs). In circumstances such as these, I can't shake the feeling that the Bluejays offense might not be quite as good as it was last season. This is why I earn the big bucks.
Veterans like Austin Chatman and Will Artino will team with Cal transfer Ricky Kreklow and top-100 freshman wing Ronnie Harrell to see if they can at least minimize the inevitable slippage on offense. And before you suggest oh so cleverly that coach Greg McDermott try playing some defense for a change, keep in mind this D was actually pretty normal last season. Not in the same zip code as St. John's or Villanova obviously, but comfortably within the same defensive neighborhood as the likes of Xavier, Georgetown, Seton Hall and Marquette. Direct your snark at all or none of the above as you see fit, but any alternative in between is analytically verboten.
I can envision the return of Roosevelt Jones from the injured list leading to markedly better offense from Butler this season. The Bulldogs simply couldn't buy a basket -- from either side of the arc -- last season, and Jones' return should be an enormous help to Kellen Dunham both in terms of floor spacing and sheer workload.
That being said, Butler's weak spots weren't confined to just one side of the ball in 2013-14. The tallest player on the roster is 6-9 senior Kameron Woods, and last season, Big East opponents made 54 percent of their 2s against this D. The Bulldogs also came in a hair below the Big East average for defensive rebound percentage. Brandon Miller managed to mask these deficiencies to an extent through equal parts skill (Butler rarely fouled) and luck (opponents missed a ton of 3s). But those structural essentials -- short D, long season -- aren't likely to change appreciably in 2014-15.
With each passing year I become more persuaded that the customary way in which we discuss basketball does DePaul a manifest disservice. Coaches cycle in and out of that job, and every last one of them is lectured until he hears it in his sleep that if he would simply mine the rich vein of local talent, all would be well. And, truth be told, DePaul coaches past and present have indeed had some success in recruiting quality players from greater Chicago, yet it never seems to translate on the court. Why?
In each of the past two seasons, the Blue Demons have had the Big East's worst defense by a statistical mile, and last season, conference opponents made a whopping 56 percent of their 2s. When speaking of any offense that doesn't have the benefit of Doug McDermott's services, 56 percent 2-point accuracy over the course of an entire conference season is a pipe dream. In short, the DePaul defense makes opposing offenses much better than they otherwise would be.
Local product Billy Garrett was a top-100 recruit, and, who knows, maybe he'll have a breakout sophomore season. But no major conference team that allows its league to ring up 1.16 points per possession over the course of an entire season can hope to break even on the scoreboard. Until DePaul registers this conclusion and acts upon it, the Blue Demons will continue on their present path, no matter how talented that path might be.
