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Author Topic: Is this the beginning of the end for the working class?  (Read 31112 times)

muwarrior69

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rocket surgeon

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Re: Is this the beginning of the end for the working class?
« Reply #1 on: September 18, 2014, 07:30:54 PM »
well at least robots don't argue, go on strike, etc, but they might call in sick on occasion
don't...don't don't don't don't

Tugg Speedman

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Re: Is this the beginning of the end for the working class?
« Reply #2 on: September 18, 2014, 08:42:55 PM »
Wait until the self-driving car hits the road. 

Nearly 5 million people have a job called "driver" ... none of them might exist in 20 years.

jesmu84

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brandx

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Re: Is this the beginning of the end for the working class?
« Reply #4 on: September 18, 2014, 11:11:49 PM »
well at least robots don't argue, go on strike, etc, but they might call in sick on occasion

Some here will blame the workers. First for being fired, and then for being "takers".

rocket surgeon

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Re: Is this the beginning of the end for the working class?
« Reply #5 on: September 18, 2014, 11:43:29 PM »
Some here will blame the workers. First for being fired, and then for being "takers".

first off-some will say, the workers brought this on to themselves, secondly, remember the advent of the refrigerator?  well i don't, but many who made their living delivering ice didn't become takers, they retrained themselves and found other trades.  the "takers" shouldn't become a lifestyle, but merely an aid to help them get back onto their feet
don't...don't don't don't don't

forgetful

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Re: Is this the beginning of the end for the working class?
« Reply #6 on: September 19, 2014, 12:04:11 AM »
first off-some will say, the workers brought this on to themselves, secondly, remember the advent of the refrigerator?  well i don't, but many who made their living delivering ice didn't become takers, they retrained themselves and found other trades.  the "takers" shouldn't become a lifestyle, but merely an aid to help them get back onto their feet

Watch the Human's need not apply video.  Whereas in the past, new jobs were created when some were removed, this is an entirely different scenario.

In these cases, there will likely be no jobs created when these are removed.  There will be no new jobs or new trades.

mu03eng

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Re: Is this the beginning of the end for the working class?
« Reply #7 on: September 19, 2014, 07:44:53 AM »
Watch the Human's need not apply video.  Whereas in the past, new jobs were created when some were removed, this is an entirely different scenario.

In these cases, there will likely be no jobs created when these are removed.  There will be no new jobs or new trades.

This is patently false.  I work in the industrial automation industry, and some would say what we do eliminates jobs, but it actually creates new ones.  Critical to the success of robots or any other automation process is networking and decision making authority.  Find someone with industrial networking skills and you'll find someone with a job for life.  Just because people can't understand the jobs that are being created doesn't mean they aren't being created.
"A Plan? Oh man, I hate plans. That means were gonna have to do stuff. Can't we just have a strategy......or a mission statement."

brandx

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Re: Is this the beginning of the end for the working class?
« Reply #8 on: September 19, 2014, 07:48:15 AM »
first off-some will say, the workers brought this on to themselves, secondly, remember the advent of the refrigerator?  well i don't, but many who made their living delivering ice didn't become takers, they retrained themselves and found other trades.  the "takers" shouldn't become a lifestyle, but merely an aid to help them get back onto their feet

C'mon Surgeon - you were there for the wheel.

mu03eng

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Re: Is this the beginning of the end for the working class?
« Reply #9 on: September 19, 2014, 07:52:36 AM »
C'mon Surgeon - you were there for the wheel.

Yeah, and that invention put all the sled people out of a job.....dogs and cats living together, MASS HYSTERIA!
"A Plan? Oh man, I hate plans. That means were gonna have to do stuff. Can't we just have a strategy......or a mission statement."

MU Fan in Connecticut

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Re: Is this the beginning of the end for the working class?
« Reply #10 on: September 19, 2014, 07:58:11 AM »
Speaking as an engineer, this is just the use of automation to replace a tedious task.  It's the never ending struggle to improve efficiency (or in kaizen lingo - muda) on the factory floor.  There are new jobs created here.  Someone has to program that CNC cutting machine and the pick & place commands on the robot.  Also, someone needs to do continual maintenance on the machine & robot to keep them running in top form.  
I know of a plastic molding factoring here in Connecticut that "runs by itself" 24/7.  They run high volume parts so after someone sets up the multi-cavity molds and loads plastic resin in the injection molding machine they just need to press the button and the automation makes parts, removes it from the machine & trims off the runner and drops it in giant box.  Someone just needs to move the pallet when the box is full.

MU Fan in Connecticut

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Re: Is this the beginning of the end for the working class?
« Reply #11 on: September 19, 2014, 07:59:15 AM »
mu03eng - I think I just backed up what you said.

jesmu84

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Re: Is this the beginning of the end for the working class?
« Reply #12 on: September 19, 2014, 08:55:38 AM »
This is patently false.  I work in the industrial automation industry, and some would say what we do eliminates jobs, but it actually creates new ones.  Critical to the success of robots or any other automation process is networking and decision making authority.  Find someone with industrial networking skills and you'll find someone with a job for life.  Just because people can't understand the jobs that are being created doesn't mean they aren't being created.

Do those created jobs require intelligence beyond the capacity of those whose jobs are being eliminated? That's part of the equation. Not everyone can be educated past a certain point.

I don't think it's "patently false" but there may be some disagreement as to the results of alll of it

Canned Goods n Ammo

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Re: Is this the beginning of the end for the working class?
« Reply #13 on: September 19, 2014, 09:14:49 AM »
Do those created jobs require intelligence beyond the capacity of those whose jobs are being eliminated? That's part of the equation. Not everyone can be educated past a certain point.

I don't think it's "patently false" but there may be some disagreement as to the results of alll of it

I don't disagree with you, but given the advancements in software and automation, it might not require a ton of advanced training for somebody to operate or even troubleshoot some of this stuff.

If the user interface is designed correctly, theoretically you could have somebody trained, and up and function very quickly.

mu_hilltopper

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Re: Is this the beginning of the end for the working class?
« Reply #14 on: September 19, 2014, 09:31:52 AM »
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Pq-S557XQU

I'll put in a third recommendation to watch this video.   Your grandchildren are doomed.

As for the disagreement .. sure you need humans to do certain tasks .. I don't think the supposition was "all humans will be fired" .. it was that when you take a task that takes, say, 10 laborers today, and replace that with a robot .. sure there's +1 new job for "robot repair guy" .. but there's a net loss of 9 human jobs.

Meanwhile, 75% of the US population doesn't educate themselves past high school .. and those jobs are prime candidates for automation.

Tugg Speedman

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Re: Is this the beginning of the end for the working class?
« Reply #15 on: September 19, 2014, 10:32:15 AM »
I'll put in a third recommendation to watch this video.   Your grandchildren are doomed.


Your grandchildren will be fine ... this epic change will be over by then.

That said, your children are at risk.  If they don't get at least an undergraduate degree, can divide fractions, write, and think critically, they are hosed.  If they don't get at least an undergraduate degree ... then steal a shopping cart and start living under the overpass as the economy will soon have little to no use for you.


mu-rara

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Re: Is this the beginning of the end for the working class?
« Reply #16 on: September 19, 2014, 10:57:51 AM »

Your grandchildren will be fine ... this epic change will be over by then.

That said, your children are at risk.  If they don't get at least an undergraduate degree, can divide fractions, write, and think critically, they are hosed.  If they don't get at least an undergraduate degree ... then steal a shopping cart and start living under the overpass as the economy will soon have little to no use for you.


It is well documented that there a many quality jobs for 2 year technical degrees going unfilled, while many college grads are bartending.

Benny B

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Re: Is this the beginning of the end for the working class?
« Reply #17 on: September 19, 2014, 11:06:55 AM »
It is well documented that there a many quality jobs for 2 year technical degrees going unfilled, while many college grads are bartending.

Companies aren't turning to automation in order to replace workers.  Companies are turning to automation because they can't replace workers.
Wow, I'm very concerned for Benny.  Being able to mimic Myron Medcalf's writing so closely implies an oncoming case of dementia.

reinko

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Re: Is this the beginning of the end for the working class?
« Reply #18 on: September 19, 2014, 11:37:54 AM »
Reinko Jr is going into HVAC.  People will always want to be warm in the winter, and cool in the summer.  Plus our countries infrastructure is so bad, machines ain't fixing the pipes in your house for a long time.


mu03eng

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Re: Is this the beginning of the end for the working class?
« Reply #19 on: September 19, 2014, 12:34:34 PM »
Do those created jobs require intelligence beyond the capacity of those whose jobs are being eliminated? That's part of the equation. Not everyone can be educated past a certain point.

I don't think it's "patently false" but there may be some disagreement as to the results of alll of it

Intelligence and education are two different things
"A Plan? Oh man, I hate plans. That means were gonna have to do stuff. Can't we just have a strategy......or a mission statement."

mu03eng

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Re: Is this the beginning of the end for the working class?
« Reply #20 on: September 19, 2014, 12:40:16 PM »
I'll put in a third recommendation to watch this video.   Your grandchildren are doomed.

As for the disagreement .. sure you need humans to do certain tasks .. I don't think the supposition was "all humans will be fired" .. it was that when you take a task that takes, say, 10 laborers today, and replace that with a robot .. sure there's +1 new job for "robot repair guy" .. but there's a net loss of 9 human jobs.

Meanwhile, 75% of the US population doesn't educate themselves past high school .. and those jobs are prime candidates for automation.

The new jobs could be easily filled by employees with a high school degree.....if we start emphasizing some of the technologies in high school.  Another tier of jobs would be filled with a 2 year technical degree.

Also, it's not a one to one jobs scenario in terms of lost vs gained but its a lot closer than you think.  Someone have to make the robot, install it, maintain it, control it, network it, etc.

This is absolutely a disruptive technology change we are going through but it is no more disruptive than humans have gone through in the past.....we just think it is because we are experiencing it.

On a personal note, I also think the impact is more deeply felt because of a lose of personal responsibility.  There seems to be less drive to find a job and more expectation to have a job find you.
"A Plan? Oh man, I hate plans. That means were gonna have to do stuff. Can't we just have a strategy......or a mission statement."

Benny B

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Re: Is this the beginning of the end for the working class?
« Reply #21 on: September 19, 2014, 03:34:59 PM »
Reinko Jr is going into HVAC.  People will always want to be warm in the winter, and cool in the summer.  Plus our countries infrastructure is so bad, machines ain't fixing the pipes in your house for a long time.

There's a little thing called "EPA Certification" that is going to keep Jr. in demand and employable for a very long time.

Even DIYers have trouble with HVAC, not because of difficulty, but because of accessibility.  For example, even though I've got all the gauges and know how to properly vacate & refill refrigerant, I can't do a damn thing with my broken humidifier because I can't get my hands on any R-22.
Wow, I'm very concerned for Benny.  Being able to mimic Myron Medcalf's writing so closely implies an oncoming case of dementia.

mu-rara

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Re: Is this the beginning of the end for the working class?
« Reply #22 on: September 19, 2014, 04:11:12 PM »
Companies aren't turning to automation in order to replace workers.  Companies are turning to automation because they can't replace workers.
In some cases.  In others, not so much.  I'll leave it there to avoid the ban hammer.

Tugg Speedman

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Re: Is this the beginning of the end for the working class?
« Reply #23 on: September 19, 2014, 05:20:53 PM »
Reinko Jr is going into HVAC.  People will always want to be warm in the winter, and cool in the summer.  Plus our countries infrastructure is so bad, machines ain't fixing the pipes in your house for a long time.

The commerce department has a new category they measure ... it is called "factory-less manufacturing."  Think about that for a moment.  It's about 3D printing and its game changing potential.

Let me say this bluntly, their will be a TON of former factory workers looking for other things to do (as more and more things are made in a factory-less manufacturing method) .  They will gravitate toward stuff like HVAC.  Yes, we will forever need to get HVAC fixed by Humans, but eventually the supply of those willing, and the increased quality of the new products will make prevent wages in these jobs from ever rising.

Canned Goods n Ammo

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Re: Is this the beginning of the end for the working class?
« Reply #24 on: September 19, 2014, 05:37:41 PM »
They will gravitate toward stuff like HVAC.  Yes, we will forever need to get HVAC fixed by Humans, but eventually the supply of those willing, and the increased quality of the new products will make prevent wages in these jobs from ever rising.


Yes, and no.

As technology in HVAC gets better, it doesn't really eliminate or even limit jobs because more and more places will need to be retrofitted with updated tech. Lots of old infrastructure still out there.

Think about Solar. Eventually it's going to be cost efficient, and everybody's going to have it. That's a whole new industry not far off from HVAC that's going to explode. Installation, maintenance, home automation, etc.

The pool of trained workers could become deeper, but I don't think these jobs are going to limited by technology, there will just be increased competition to get these jobs.