A more optimistic Big East projection

[tower912]

http://basketball.realgm.com/article/234713/College-Basketball-Preview-14-15-Big-East

Has MU as a potential tourney team.   

[Buzz Williams' Spillproof Chiclets Cup]

I'll have what he's having.

[NersEllenson]

I'll have what he's having.

He's a bright man.  As he points out - 7 Top 100 recruits on this roster.  And that doesn't even count my guy John Dawson who will be a very good player at MU before all is said and done.  Not sure if MU has ever had 7 Top 100s on the same roster?  Wojo will be so much better than Buzz was last year.  Buzz was so far off the grid last season, it skewed everyone's perception of where we can be as a program even this season - even with having lost our Top 3 scorers.

Would be shocked if team doesn't win at least 19 games.  Think 22 is a good possibility.

[GoldenWarrior11]

If Marquette finishes top-5, while hopeful I am also realistic, that would be that Seton Hall, Butler, Creighton and Providence would all struggle mightily this year.  That would be pretty harsh on the Big East.  If Villanova and Georgetown are the only schools that make the tournament, you can guarantee the league seriously considers expansion.  

Round robin scheduling only works when you have competitive teams top-to-bottom.

[DFW HOYA]

If Villanova and Georgetown are the only schools that make the tournament, you can guarantee the league seriously considers expansion.  

Unless UConn or Temple want to make a go of it, the Big East does not need to expand. No one at Fox Sports sees Dayton as driving TV ratings.

[tower912]

Unless UConn or Temple want to make a go of it, the Big East does not need to expand. No one at Fox Sports sees Dayton as driving TV ratings.

Why Temple when you already have Villanova in the exact same market?    And why would you want to mess with any football playing schools?

[GoldenWarrior11]

Unless UConn or Temple want to make a go of it, the Big East does not need to expand. No one at Fox Sports sees Dayton as driving TV ratings.

UCONN and/or Temple I don't even think crack the top-5 schools the league would (potentially) look at if the need for expansion is there.  These schools played with the football schools once, and they're not doing that again.  Fox Sports and the Big East want to continue (as well as re-build) a brand of elite basketball at the college level.  You're not going to accomplish that when you are treading water with getting 4 (or less) schools in the tournament.  If the conference lays an egg in March again this year, you can bet the league seriously considers expansion.

[GGGG]

The problem with saying MU had 7 top 100 guys is that only one of them have done anything consistent at the college level yet.  The article calls Juan and STJ "busts," and while I think that is a little harsh in the case of Taylor, it is true that neither has performed up to their ranking.And then you have Duane, Fischer and JJJ who obviously have incredible talent, but not too much experience.  Sandy Cohen is a freshman.

So you really only have one, proven guy - Deonte Burton.  

The non-conference schedule is going to likely going to be 9-3 at best.  (Losses @OSU, one in Orlando, UW).  10-2 would be incredible.  But 8-4 isn't out of the picture.  (Two losses in Orlando or ASU).  Then conference season.  I think at best you are looking at 11-7 there.  Give yourself a win in the BET...maybe two.

I think at best you are looking at 23 wins.  19 is more likely.   15 is the floor.  (8-4 pre conference, 7-11 in conference, no BET wins)

Now obviously this can all change if Duane or JJJ can shoot with consistency.  If Deonte takes that next step.  If Carlino or Juan provides the senior leadership we will need.  You could see something the equivalent of the midgets team.

But really most of all I am looking forward to seeing how this team grows.  Because I think 2015-16 is going to be big.  

[NersEllenson]

UCONN and/or Temple I don't even think crack the top-5 schools the league would (potentially) look at if the need for expansion is there.  These schools played with the football schools once, and they're not doing that again.  Fox Sports and the Big East want to continue (as well as re-build) a brand of elite basketball at the college level.  You're not going to accomplish that when you are treading water with getting 4 (or less) schools in the tournament.  If the conference lays an egg in March again this year, you can bet the league seriously considers expansion.

What historically strong basketball only programs are going to be sure fire locks to consistently make the tournament that are not already in the Big East?  VCU?  They'll likely only be a basketball power so long as they have Shaka.  I just don't see a whole lot of value add schools the Big East could add.  Gonzaga?  Sure - but the geographic issues are so vast, not feasible. 

[Aughnanure]

If Marquette finishes top-5, while hopeful I am also realistic, that would be that Seton Hall, Butler, Creighton and Providence would all struggle mightily this year.  That would be pretty harsh on the Big East.  If Villanova and Georgetown are the only schools that make the tournament, you can guarantee the league seriously considers expansion.  

Round robin scheduling only works when you have competitive teams top-to-bottom.

So if we're good, everyone else sucks? Oooookay.

[GGGG]

Unless Fox is pushing the BE to add more content, I don't think the conference will be expanding anytime soon.

[hoyasincebirth]

The problem with saying MU had 7 top 100 guys is that only one of them have done anything consistent at the college level yet.  The article calls Juan and STJ "busts," and while I think that is a little harsh in the case of Taylor, it is true that neither has performed up to their ranking.And then you have Duane, Fischer and JJJ who obviously have incredible talent, but not too much experience.  Sandy Cohen is a freshman.

So you really only have one, proven guy - Deonte Burton.  

The non-conference schedule is going to likely going to be 9-3 at best.  (Losses @OSU, one in Orlando, UW).  10-2 would be incredible.  But 8-4 isn't out of the picture.  (Two losses in Orlando or ASU).  Then conference season.  I think at best you are looking at 9-5 there.  Give yourself a win in the BET...maybe two.

I think at best you are looking at 21 wins.  18 is more likely.   15 is the floor.  (8-4 pre conference, 7-7 in conference, no BET wins)

Now obviously this can all change if Duane or JJJ can shoot with consistency.  If Deonte takes that next step.  If Carlino or Juan provides the senior leadership we will need.  You could see something the equivalent of the midgets team.

But really most of all I am looking forward to seeing how this team grows.  Because I think 2015-16 is going to be big.  

You play 18 conference games not 14. you play the 9 other schools 2x so 18. So presumably you're saying the floor is 17 games and at best presumably your 9-5 prediction would be 11-7 so 23 wins would presumably be your best case scenario.

[GGGG]

You play 18 conference games not 14. you play the 9 other schools 2x so 18. So presumably you're saying the floor is 17 games and at best presumably your 9-5 prediction would be 11-7 so 23 wins would presumably be your best case scenario.

Good lord.  Thanks.  I edited my post.

[Galway Eagle]

If Marquette finishes top-5, while hopeful I am also realistic, that would be that Seton Hall, Butler, Creighton and Providence would all struggle mightily this year.  That would be pretty harsh on the Big East.  If Villanova and Georgetown are the only schools that make the tournament, you can guarantee the league seriously considers expansion.  

Round robin scheduling only works when you have competitive teams top-to-bottom.

I maintain the best thing for this conference (as far as national perception and branding) is MU Nova and GTown setting themselves apart from the rest as the "kings" with a 4th and sometimes 5th spot up for grabs for the rest of the teams.  

[MU82]

I maintain the best thing for this conference (as far as national perception and branding) is MU Nova and GTown setting themselves apart from the rest as the "kings" with a 4th and sometimes 5th spot up for grabs for the rest of the teams.  

Just going out on a limb ... I'm guessing fans of the other 7 schools would not consider that the best thing for the conference!

[Aughnanure]

I maintain the best thing for this conference (as far as national perception and branding) is MU Nova and GTown setting themselves apart from the rest as the "kings" with a 4th and sometimes 5th spot up for grabs for the rest of the teams.  

Umm, add in St. John's. SJU being top again would be huge for this league.

[Galway Eagle]

Just going out on a limb ... I'm guessing fans of the other 7 schools would not consider that the best thing for the conference!

Haha I agree but this conference needs clear blue bloods and those three schools are the closest thing we have. Three with national titles, the three with the most NCAA appearances, the three out of four with recent final fours, the three with the most recent success.

[Galway Eagle]

Umm, add in St. John's. SJU being top again would be huge for this league.

I agree it'd be big but I think we could get by fine with them as a one of those 4th or 5th teams often.

[Johnny B]

What historically strong basketball only programs are going to be sure fire locks to consistently make the tournament that are not already in the Big East?  VCU?  They'll likely only be a basketball power so long as they have Shaka.  I just don't see a whole lot of value add schools the Big East could add.  Gonzaga?  Sure - but the geographic issues are so vast, not feasible. 

You make a very good point, there's really no basketball only
Schools that will consistently be good for a long nd consitient period. Once Shaka goes so does
VCu bball honestly. Maybe if you snag uconn Memphis somehow
If they were independent idk.

[GoldenWarrior11]

What historically strong basketball only programs are going to be sure fire locks to consistently make the tournament that are not already in the Big East?  VCU?  They'll likely only be a basketball power so long as they have Shaka.  I just don't see a whole lot of value add schools the Big East could add.  Gonzaga?  Sure - but the geographic issues are so vast, not feasible. 

I'm not advocating for anyone, but VCU has made the NCAA tournament 7 times since 2004.  Saint Louis has made it three consecutive years.  Dayton appears to be on the up and up as well.  There are certainly additions out there that would help balance out the bottom-feeders of the conference (DePaul, Seton Hall).

[frozena pizza]

Why would the BE start adding football schools again?  I think the best school to add (who realistically would join) is Saint Louis.  Strong program recently, good school, attractive market, solid fan base.  I doubt they would drive ratings or create a ton of excitement going forward, but I wouldn't mind having them in our league.

[Johnny B]

Why would the BE start adding football schools again?  I think the best school to add (who realistically would join) is Saint Louis.  Strong program recently, good school, attractive market, solid fan base.  I doubt they would drive ratings or create a ton of excitement going forward, but I wouldn't mind having them in our league.

Larger markets, more exposure more
Money, stronger conference etc

[tower912]

I would be absolutely stunned if the Big East added a school that had D1 football.   The whole purpose of the schism was to create a conference free of football with schools that played basketball at the highest level.   Adding UConn or Memphis, while good for basketball, completely craps on the original intent by bringing instability into the conference with two colleges who are looking to jump as soon as one of the big 5 football conferences comes asking.   

[hoyasincebirth]

I think there could be a time where we add football playing schools back in. But it wouldn't be till after another round of expansion by the power 5. If they snap up a team or two from the AAC and basically create a seperate football league from the Rest of D1A I think essentially the best remaining teams in the AAC would be no different from Villanova with respect for Football for all intents and purposes. At that point it would be find to add a Uconn or a Memphis if they aren't in the real football anymore.

[GGGG]

The Big East doesn't want football schools, and no good football schools are interested in the BE.  That's a good thing.

VCU is better than just Shaka.  Make a good hire after he leaves and they'll be fine.

St. Louis and Dayton I think lack the value added to interest current members.  I just don't see any of it happening anytime soon.

[Johnny B]

I would be absolutely stunned if the Big East added a school that had D1 football.   The whole purpose of the schism was to create a conference free of football with schools that played basketball at the highest level.   Adding UConn or Memphis, while good for basketball, completely craps on the original intent by bringing instability into the conference with two colleges who are looking to jump as soon as one of the big 5 football conferences comes asking.   

Do you really think that matters. If the p5 break away they may look to brings with and if the big east is the best available they'll take more than just uconn Memphis. As of now though uconn and Memphis are not heading to a p5 while the p5 is still with the ncca

[Johnny B]

I think there could be a time where we add football playing schools back in. But it wouldn't be till after another round of expansion by the power 5. If they snap up a team or two from the AAC and basically create a seperate football league from the Rest of D1A I think essentially the best remaining teams in the AAC would be no different from Villanova with respect for Football for all intents and purposes. At that point it would be find to add a Uconn or a Memphis if they aren't in the real football anymore.

Fair assessment

[GGGG]

Do you really think that matters.

Yes, I think it matters because BE schools have said that it matters.

If the p5 break away they may look to brings with and if the big east is the best available they'll take more than just uconn Memphis. As of now though uconn and Memphis are not heading to a p5 while the p5 is still with the ncca

Honestly I am not quite sure what you are trying to say here.  But I think the AAC is going to match whatever the Power 5 do.  And if they leave, I think the AAC and the BE will be two of the conferences that will follow if invited. 

I think there could be a time where we add football playing schools back in. But it wouldn't be till after another round of expansion by the power 5. If they snap up a team or two from the AAC and basically create a seperate football league from the Rest of D1A I think essentially the best remaining teams in the AAC would be no different from Villanova with respect for Football for all intents and purposes. At that point it would be find to add a Uconn or a Memphis if they aren't in the real football anymore.

So what you are saying is, "we will invite football schools if they really aren't football schools any longer."  Perhaps.  I just don't see it happening anytime soon.

[Johnny B]

Yes, I think it matters because BE schools have said that it matters.


Honestly I am not quite sure what you are trying to say here.  But I think the AAC is going to match whatever the Power 5 do.  And if they leave, I think the AAC and the BE will be two of the conferences that will follow if invited. 


So what you are saying is, "we will invite football schools if they really aren't football schools any longer."  Perhaps.  I just don't see it happening anytime soon.

Yes basically that's wat I mean, i agree with you about the last part

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

The Big East will expand again. Maybe not this year, or next, or even in four years, but it will expand again. I think right now they are waiting to see how all this power 5 stuff shakes out. The outcomes have the potential to shake up the landscape of college basketball. I don't think they will, but there is potential.

As for who would we add, I think you have several options that you could pursue. Some more likely than others.

VCU (they were decent before Shaka and I've heard Shaka is staying until the Florida job opens up)
Gonzaga (if they can negotiate the geography)
Saint Louis (little history, gonna suck next season, but great TV market)
Dayton (groan)
Wichita State (solid program, terrible TV market)
Rhode Island (Long shot, but they should be decent this season. If Hurley turns that program around, they fit our geographic profile nicely)
Saint Joe's (If nova doesn't mind sharing Philly)
Richmond (would rather have VCU but Richmond does match the private school model)
BYU (if they can negotiate the geography and they stay independent in football)
Saint Mary's (if they can negotiate the geography)
Notre Dame (very unlikely, next to impossible, but I know trying to get them back in the fold has been discussed by the BEast)
San Francisco (Long shot, geography is an issue)
Denver (Long shot, but they are already in the BEast for LAX)

Looking at this list, it makes me wonder if a west coast division of the Big East conference would be possible. Or some sort of partnership with the WCC. I think the WCC play a lot better basketball than people realize, they just don't get the publicity. Maybe adding the Big East brand would be enough to elevate some of those teams. This of course is unrealistic and a pipe dream, just thinking out loud.

[Aughnanure]

Honestly I am not quite sure what you are trying to say here.  But I think the AAC is going to match whatever the Power 5 do.  And if they leave, I think the AAC and the BE will be two of the conferences that will follow if invited. 

They'll need more than that. What would that be, 75 teams? I think you've got add the MWC, Missouri Valley, WCC, A-10, and Conference USA at the very least. Add in the academies and ivies for some fun and that should be good.

That gets you to 145. Do they all play in the football format though? I don't know.

[WarriorInNYC]

The Big East will expand again. Maybe not this year, or next, or even in four years, but it will expand again. I think right now they are waiting to see how all this power 5 stuff shakes out. The outcomes have the potential to shake up the landscape of college basketball. I don't think they will, but there is potential.

As for who would we add, I think you have several options that you could pursue. Some more likely than others.

VCU (they were decent before Shaka and I've heard Shaka is staying until the Florida job opens up)
Gonzaga (if they can negotiate the geography)
Saint Louis (little history, gonna suck next season, but great TV market)
Dayton (groan)
Wichita State (solid program, terrible TV market)
Rhode Island (Long shot, but they should be decent this season. If Hurley turns that program around, they fit our geographic profile nicely)
Saint Joe's (If nova doesn't mind sharing Philly)
Richmond (would rather have VCU but Richmond does match the private school model)
BYU (if they can negotiate the geography and they stay independent in football)
Saint Mary's (if they can negotiate the geography)
Notre Dame (very unlikely, next to impossible, but I know trying to get them back in the fold has been discussed by the BEast)
San Francisco (Long shot, geography is an issue)
Denver (Long shot, but they are already in the BEast for LAX)

Looking at this list, it makes me wonder if a west coast division of the Big East conference would be possible. Or some sort of partnership with the WCC. I think the WCC play a lot better basketball than people realize, they just don't get the publicity. Maybe adding the Big East brand would be enough to elevate some of those teams. This of course is unrealistic and a pipe dream, just thinking out loud.

Agreed on the thought about SLU not being good this year.  But I'm pretty sure we said the exact same thing last year.

I agree that the BE should not consider any football schools, but does anyone think that UCONN, Memphis, UMASS, or Cincy would consider dropping football completely or down to a D-1AA as things continue to shake out with the P5?

[GGGG]

I agree that the BE should not consider any football schools, but does anyone think that UCONN, Memphis, UMASS, or Cincy would consider dropping football completely or down to a D-1AA as things continue to shake out with the P5?

No.  I mean, eventually things might change to the point that they will, but I honestly can't see that on the horizon anytime soon.

[GoldenWarrior11]

I agree that the BE should not consider any football schools, but does anyone think that UCONN, Memphis, UMASS, or Cincy would consider dropping football completely or down to a D-1AA as things continue to shake out with the P5?

Cincinnati definitely is not dropping down football anytime soon, as they are in the process of upgrading Nippert Stadium.

The other three, I COULD (very unlikely) possibly see them dropping football a level (or altogether) in the distant future, but certainly not within 10 years. 

Memphis, in over 100 years of collegiate football, have been to SIX bowl games - they are a basketball school that sponsors football. 

UCONN is still trying to make a name for itself in football, and it's still a relatively young program (just under 15 years old) - they are a basketball school that sponsors football. 

UMASS just completed a transition to the FBS.  They are currently without a conference for football - they are a basketball school that sponsors football.

The order of likelihood of the respective teams dropping football:
1. UMASS (Until they get a conference for football, it's a distinct possibility in the next few years).
2a. UCONN (Likely will never happen)
2b. Memphis (Likely will never happen)
3. Cincinnati (Will never happen)

[MU82]

VCU (they were decent before Shaka and I've heard Shaka is staying until the Florida job opens up)

Florida? Billy Donovan is 49 years old, he has a lucrative lifetime contract and he obviously loves it there because he has turned down multiple suitors.

And why wouldn't he love it there? Like coaches at Kentucky, UCLA, Indiana, etc., he has the resources to build a national championship contender every year. Unlike them, however, he doesn't face anywhere near the amount of scrutiny because Florida is a football factory. Throw in the good weather, both as a place to live and as an environment to attract recruits, and you've got the whole package.

In many ways, Florida is the ideal college basketball job, so I can see why Shaka would want it. Unfortunately for Shaka, I also can see why Donovan would want it for, oh, another 25 or 30 years.

[Coleman]

The Big East doesn't want football schools, and no good football schools are interested in the BE.  That's a good thing.

VCU is better than just Shaka.  Make a good hire after he leaves and they'll be fine.

St. Louis and Dayton I think lack the value added to interest current members.  I just don't see any of it happening anytime soon.

I think SLU is all but in. Dayton I agree with you.

[Galway Eagle]

Cincinnati definitely is not dropping down football anytime soon, as they are in the process of upgrading Nippert Stadium.

The other three, I COULD (very unlikely) possibly see them dropping football a level (or altogether) in the distant future, but certainly not within 10 years. 

Memphis, in over 100 years of collegiate football, have been to SIX bowl games - they are a basketball school that sponsors football. 

UCONN is still trying to make a name for itself in football, and it's still a relatively young program (just under 15 years old) - they are a basketball school that sponsors football. 

UMASS just completed a transition to the FBS.  They are currently without a conference for football - they are a basketball school that sponsors football.

The order of likelihood of the respective teams dropping football:
1. UMASS (Until they get a conference for football, it's a distinct possibility in the next few years).
2a. UCONN (Likely will never happen)
2b. Memphis (Likely will never happen)
3. Cincinnati (Will never happen)

I'm surprised Donovan didn't go after the providence job I mean the guys obviously an amazing coach and he could've turned his alma mater back into a huge power house

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Florida? Billy Donovan is 49 years old, he has a lucrative lifetime contract and he obviously loves it there because he has turned down multiple suitors.

And why wouldn't he love it there? Like coaches at Kentucky, UCLA, Indiana, etc., he has the resources to build a national championship contender every year. Unlike them, however, he doesn't face anywhere near the amount of scrutiny because Florida is a football factory. Throw in the good weather, both as a place to live and as an environment to attract recruits, and you've got the whole package.

In many ways, Florida is the ideal college basketball job, so I can see why Shaka would want it. Unfortunately for Shaka, I also can see why Donovan would want it for, oh, another 25 or 30 years.

I agree, which is why I could see Shaka staying for awhile. But I could see Donovan leaving one day for the NBA. Also, I don't see Donovan coaching until he is 75-80

[Texas Western]

If Marquette finishes top-5, while hopeful I am also realistic, that would be that Seton Hall, Butler, Creighton and Providence would all struggle mightily this year.  That would be pretty harsh on the Big East.  If Villanova and Georgetown are the only schools that make the tournament, you can guarantee the league seriously considers expansion.  

Round robin scheduling only works when you have competitive teams top-to-bottom.

I think the round robin schedule is the best feature of the Big East. It has already helped the historically weaker schools. Over the next few years it will really start to take off.   One of the keys is for St. Johns to to become a strong program again. 

[MU82]

I agree, which is why I could see Shaka staying for awhile. But I could see Donovan leaving one day for the NBA. Also, I don't see Donovan coaching until he is 75-80

I can see Shaka staying for awhile, too.

Duke would seem a very nice opportunity. Folks assume they'll hire a former player, and maybe they will, but it sure would be hard to resist a guy like Shaka if he's available and interested and still winning when K hangs 'em up.