[Cracked Sidewalks]1st Losing Season Since 1999 Possible Under Projection

[NersEllenson]

Ners ain't afraid of no ban. 

 
Guess this is what you resort to Tower, when you can't counterpoint, the point made. As illustrated, it didn't take hardly anything to make last year's team a winner - other than common sense coaching.  But instead Buzz gave us a big F You as a going away present.  Just as he did in his comments about the Big East, the TV deal, etc., as being reasons why he "chose" to go to a bottom feeder in the ACC.

Back on point -  as Bama said:  Leaving Dawson on the bench was the equivalent of Buzz running a QB sneak on Fourth and 27.

Nearly impossible to win, when you roll with a guy who gives you as little production as we got from Derrick those last 3 games.  And this doesn't even quantify how hard it became for everyone else on the court to perform due to playing 4 on 5.

[MU82]

As mind warping as last season was, MU lost its NCAA bid with losses in its last three games by a total of five points (along with two other BE OT losses). A 20-12 record sure would have sounded nice at season's end, I'm really a badger fan?

I am never much swayed by this kind of argument.

Could we have won those games? Sure.

We also had OT wins over Georgetown and DePaul, a two-point win over Georgetown, a one-point win over Seton Hall, and even ridiculously close wins over Southern and New Hampshire. Could have lost all of those, or at least some of 'em.

In the end, 17-15 was about right for the way that team played all season. Just good enough to be not quite good enough.

[tower912]

Guess this is what you resort to Tower, when you can't counterpoint, the point made. As illustrated, it didn't take hardly anything to make last year's team a winner - other than common sense coaching.  But instead Buzz gave us a big F You as a going away present.  Just as he did in his comments about the Big East, the TV deal, etc., as being reasons why he "chose" to go to a bottom feeder in the ACC.

Back on point -  as Bama said:  Leaving Dawson on the bench was the equivalent of Buzz running a QB sneak on Fourth and 27.

Nearly impossible to win, when you roll with a guy who gives you as little production as we got from Derrick those last 3 games.  And this doesn't even quantify how hard it became for everyone else on the court to perform due to playing 4 on 5.

Fair enough.   I said weeks ago I was done with the topic and had a moment of weakness. 

[real chili 83]

Fair enough.   I said weeks ago I was done with the topic and had a moment of weakness. 

Tower, no need to retract.  I had a similar reaction.

[Dr. Blackheart]

I am never much swayed by this kind of argument.

Could we have won those games? Sure.

We also had OT wins over Georgetown and DePaul, a two-point win over Georgetown, a one-point win over Seton Hall, and even ridiculously close wins over Southern and New Hampshire. Could have lost all of those, or at least some of 'em.

In the end, 17-15 was about right for the way that team played all season. Just good enough to be not quite good enough.

I agree, "the woulda, shoulda, coulda" game looking backwards on a flawed team really doesn't fly.  However, my point was the defensive philosophy will change to guard the perimeter and limit threes. For example, Duke was fourth best in limiting three point rate, and #1 in percent of points on threes. Yes, much different talent on the two teams, but the philosophy will be very different as well.  Namely, stressing treys on offense of defense, as KPom points out.  So why the talent reflected in last year's VA numbers are lower, the coach philosophies will be 180 degrees different so I expect individual improvement looking forward over last year's stinker.

As to last year, MU set a Big East (old or new) record on the number of OT games. The unusually large number of OT games in most Buzz seasons seemed to be the norm.  Why?  Always a fine line between W's and L's under him. Even Southern and New Hampshire were launching on MU.

[MU82]

I agree, "the woulda, shoulda, coulda" game looking backwards on a flawed team really doesn't fly.  However, my point was the defensive philosophy will change to guard the perimeter and limit threes. For example, Duke was fourth best in limiting three point rate, and #1 in percent of points on threes. Yes, much different talent on the two teams, but the philosophy will be very different as well.  Namely, stressing treys on offense of defense, as KPom points out.  So why the talent reflected in last year's VA numbers are lower, the coach philosophies will be 180 degrees different so I expect individual improvement looking forward over last year's stinker.

As to last year, MU set a Big East (old or new) record on the number of OT games. The unusually large number of OT games in most Buzz seasons seemed to be the norm.  Why?  Always a fine line between W's and L's under him. Even Southern and New Hampshire were launching on MU.

One of the things I said often (probably too often, but not "Ners often") was that the disparity from the 3-point line was killing us last season. An outstanding team - like the 2012-13 version - can overcome some of that. But for an OK team like last year's to go into every game pretty much knowing it would lose the 3-point battle by 9 or 12 or 21 points, that's rough.

So I hope you are right, because we need to make a lot more 3s and need to stop them, too. Like it or not, college basketball has become a guard's game and a perimeter game in which spreading the floor is the pretty much the most important thing an offense can do (aside from scoring, of course).

[Mr. Nielsen]

CIT is for mid-majors and the CBI is a pay for play tourney.

[Jay Bee]

One of the things I said often (probably too often, but not "Ners often") was that the disparity from the 3-point line was killing us last season. An outstanding team - like the 2012-13 version - can overcome some of that. But for an OK team like last year's to go into every game pretty much knowing it would lose the 3-point battle by 9 or 12 or 21 points, that's rough.

So I hope you are right, because we need to make a lot more 3s and need to stop them, too. Like it or not, college basketball has become a guard's game and a perimeter game in which spreading the floor is the pretty much the most important thing an offense can do (aside from scoring, of course).

Saying this even once is too often.

MU 2013-14 games in which the opp made more treys: 22
Record in those 22 games: 10-12
Average deficit in 3FGM in 10 wins: 4.9
Average deficit in 3FGM in 12 losses: 5.0 (3.9 excluding 2 Creighton losses)
Syracuse record in games where opp made more treys: 16-5; avg deficit of 4.2.
Colorado record in games where opp made more treys? 13-9; avg 3-points (total pts) deficit in wins = 11.1

Opp 3FGM > Your Team isn't by itself an obstacle or something that needs to be "overcome." Depends on various other factors. By itself? Just a different way of scoring and not necessarily better or worse.

Conf opp's shooting almost 40% from deep? THAT's an obstacle.

[Henry Sugar]

Paint Touches are bullcrap

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

Paint Touches are bullcrap

That's a good topic:

I recall Buzz telling an antidote about how he came up with the philosophy, and I believe it was the first summer he was HC at MU. He was trying to convince the 3 amigos to not jack up the first available shot in the possession, (even if they made the shot).

The 3 of them were good enough to get their shot whenever they wanted (in summer ball), so Buzz had to find a way to dial them back. He told them the ball had to touch the paint first, then they could shoot whatever shot they wanted.

I think Buzz started charting it in practice, and eventually they charted it in games.

Now, with how much Buzz loves stats, I figured he must know the validity of the stat.

However, as Henry pointed out previously, the stat might be fools gold and a poor indicator, especially if you are using it to form your entire philosophy on offense.

It's a stat/theory that might work well for SOME teams, but it might not be the magic bullet that Buzz thought/thinks.

It will be interesting to watch if he sticks with the philosophy at WVU.

[leever]

It will be interesting to watch if he sticks with the philosophy at WVU.

That would truly be hilarious if Buzz was coaching at WVU!

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

That would truly be hilarious if Buzz was coaching at WVU!

Crap.

VTech.

[Newsdreams]

That would truly be hilarious if Buzz was coaching at WVU!

He would be dancing!

[Dr. Blackheart]

Paint Touches are bullcrap

<like>. I would take a paint touch over paint touches.  See Ryan, Bo.

[MU82]

Saying this even once is too often.

MU 2013-14 games in which the opp made more treys: 22
Record in those 22 games: 10-12
Average deficit in 3FGM in 10 wins: 4.9
Average deficit in 3FGM in 12 losses: 5.0 (3.9 excluding 2 Creighton losses)
Syracuse record in games where opp made more treys: 16-5; avg deficit of 4.2.
Colorado record in games where opp made more treys? 13-9; avg 3-points (total pts) deficit in wins = 11.1

Opp 3FGM > Your Team isn't by itself an obstacle or something that needs to be "overcome." Depends on various other factors. By itself? Just a different way of scoring and not necessarily better or worse.

Conf opp's shooting almost 40% from deep? THAT's an obstacle.

Oh sure ... come back at me with stats and facts, you bastard you!!

My eye test says we went into far too many games knowing we were going to lose 21-6 on 3-pointers and that our opponents would be able to spread the court far better than we would, but you have the stats.

So maybe we don't need no stinkin' shooting after all!