[Cracked Sidewalks]1st Losing Season Since 1999 Possible Under Projection

[MU82]

Except Jamil was actually the only guy that played to his projected Value Add rating last season!  Mayo was only player to exceed his.  Gardner's fell markedly - and believe it was the worst of his four year career. 

I don't give a rat's rump about his projected Value Add.

I have eyes. I can see. You have talked many times about your background making you an educated observer that allows you to see things statistics don't always measure accurately. I'm an educated observer, too, as are many others on this board.

If you really think Jamil actually exceeded expectations - ESPN, for example, predicted in preseason that he would be one of the nation's 25 "breakout players" - then I truly wonder about you, Ners.

[jesmu84]

Except Jamil was actually the only guy that played to his projected Value Add rating last season!  Mayo was only player to exceed his.  Gardner's fell markedly - and believe it was the worst of his four year career.  

Unless I'm totally reading things incorrectly, wasn't jamils predicted VA for 2014 4.96 and actual VA 1.47?

[GGGG]

Not surprisingly, you have little you can say or comment on regarding Bama's data, other than "casting" these types of posts, as the data flies in the face of your posts all season long.  

The same data prompted John Pudner to say this on another board:

"I really think Dawson can be great, but from a purely statistical bases the fact is Dawson was one of the worst players in the country. His offensive rating was 84.9, about 10 points worse than Derrick Wilson’s terrible offensive rating of 94.6, in a year that the overall national average was an all-time high 104.3. He had the worst steal percentage on the team of 0.7 per opponent’s 100 trips down the court AND HE IS A GUARD. He hit 37.5% of his two-pointers, much worse than even the poor shooting Wilson. I love the kid and see potential SUBJECTIVELY, but from a purely statistical perspective he would have contended for the worst player in a major conference last year."


This same data prompted you to say this:

"I know you buy into his analysis as THe Bible and foolproof - but I'm happy to go with my eye test analysis."


So which is it Ners?  Are you now going to be a pro-data guy?  Because I think if you are going to now trumpet Pudner's data, you also have to live with the implications that this data might show that your "eye test" might need some spectacles.  

[bamamarquettefan]

Except Jamil was actually the only guy that played to his projected Value Add rating last season!  Mayo was only player to exceed his.  Gardner's fell markedly - and believe it was the worst of his four year career. 

While it is true Davante dropped in Value Add last year, the drop was from being in the top 2% of all players to the top 4% of all players, so still a stud.

As for john dawson and the data vs observation argument, keep in mind that the more data you have the more you should weight it whereas the margin of error on data is much higher if you don't have very few minutes.

I defended dawson's 0 value add because his stats were terrible last year. However we had enough data to see the team would likely not even make the nit if derrick wilson got most of the minutes last year, so I did want to get Dawson out there and take a chance that he would hit some shots and make teams guard him to free up jamil and davante. I didn't think it was goimg to work but it was 4th and 27.  At last year's georgia at auburn I didn't think it would work to heave the ball down the field so it would bounce off the uga defenders hand to our guy for a touchdown, but leaving dawson on the bench was like buzz running a qb sneak on that 4th and 27.

[NersEllenson]

The same data prompted John Pudner to say this on another board:

"I really think Dawson can be great, but from a purely statistical bases the fact is Dawson was one of the worst players in the country. His offensive rating was 84.9, about 10 points worse than Derrick Wilson’s terrible offensive rating of 94.6, in a year that the overall national average was an all-time high 104.3. He had the worst steal percentage on the team of 0.7 per opponent’s 100 trips down the court AND HE IS A GUARD. He hit 37.5% of his two-pointers, much worse than even the poor shooting Wilson. I love the kid and see potential SUBJECTIVELY, but from a purely statistical perspective he would have contended for the worst player in a major conference last year."


This same data prompted you to say this:

"I know you buy into his analysis as THe Bible and foolproof - but I'm happy to go with my eye test analysis."


So which is it Ners?  Are you now going to be a pro-data guy?  Because I think if you are going to now trumpet Pudner's data, you also have to live with the implications that this data might show that your "eye test" might need some spectacles.  

I'm not going to re-hash everything all over again regarding these two.  What I know is the ORating figure which everyone is using is from Pomroy.  Pomroy doesn't even assign an ORating for a player who plays less than 10 minutes in a game - as he views it statistically irrelevant.  To quote Bama: As for john dawson and the data vs observation argument, keep in mind that the more data you have the more you should weight it whereas the margin of error on data is much higher if you don't have very few many (believe this was the point) minutes.

So to answer your question...essentially the statistical rating you are trying to use - ORating - is basically statistically irrelevant as viewed through the lens of a stat guy, in that Dawson averaged 10 minutes per game for the season..the absolute MINIMUM threshold Pomroy would use to assign an ORating (in games he got to play in.)  I've already done the analysis of games Dawson played more than 13 minutes - the O Rating went to something like 97.6.  For those games he played between 10 and 13 minutes, his O Rating was ~78.5.

I believe in the eye test above stats, yet it is the intersection of the two that give the most relevant assessment of a player in any sport. 

Let's not forget that Derrick had THE BIGGEST SAMPLE SIZE of any MU player (minutes played) he scored a 0.00 Value Add for last season - which is almost beyond comprehension.  As I said all year...it certainly wasn't going to get any worse playing Dawson...as it was clear as day from the eye test alone...we weren't going to be able to win at any level of necessity with Derrick playing 32+ minutes per game at the point.  I mean when your own eyes see a high major PG that isn't defended within 5 feet on the perimeter, that's all you need to see to know that is going to cause major problems for the other 4 guys on the floor.  Even more of a hinderance when that ineptitude was paired with another guard that was perhaps the most limited shooting guard in recent memory, with regard to ability to make a 2 point FG.

[NersEllenson]

but leaving dawson on the bench was like buzz running a qb sneak on that 4th and 27.

Post of the year.  #donedeal

[MUDPT]

Quick alternative analysis:

MU's eFG% was crap last year. On offense it was monumentally poor vs. the past decade+. Easily the worst we've seen in more than a decade. Puke. The Warriors lose Davante and Chris, but the comps of others give them a great opportunity for improvement. Jamil's heavy 2FGA (2nd most on team) kept eFG% down. 3FGA/FGA can rise this season and the conversion rate has plenty of room for improvement.

I like MU's eFG% to improve in 2014-15.

MU's defensive eFG% wasn't good either, but mostly due to getting scorched from beyond the arc. BEast opp's shot 39.4% 3FG against MU (and it wasn't all Creighton's doing - many teams got in on the fun). Some love to talk about last year's starting guards from an offensive perspective, but consider their size and athletic abilities as well.

MU's def 2FG% will be challenged, but they can more than make up for it defending the perimeter (3FG% could decrease just because of unusually high numbers / chance and also because of MU's actual defense).

I like MU's defensive eFG% to improve in 2014-15.

eFG% matters most. Let's collect those wins.

NCAA tourney, baby.

There is no such thing as 3 point defense.  You can only control whether teams take 3 pointers.  It's been proven by Pomeroy that teams cannot control the opposing teams 3P FG%.  Hanner did an awesome study on how 3P% and FT% affected teams.  Marquette was very, very slightly lucky last year.  http://basketball.realgm.com/article/233373  Buzz hasn't been great on 3PA/FGA.
2014: 309
2013: 276
2012: 162
2011: 214
2010: 55 (another reason they succeeded that year)
2009: 234

[NersEllenson]

There is no such thing as 3 point defense.  You can only control whether teams take 3 pointers.  It's been proven by Pomeroy that teams cannot control the opposing teams 3P FG%.  Hanner did an awesome study on how 3P% and FT% affected teams.  Marquette was very, very slightly lucky last year.  http://basketball.realgm.com/article/233373  Buzz hasn't been great on 3PA/FGA.
2014: 309
2013: 276
2012: 162
2011: 214
2010: 55 (another reason they succeeded that year)
2009: 234

Pretty remarkable that we had our most experienced team under Buzz in the way of returning guys/years in the program, and Buzz was playing the guards who were "playing to the scouting report," and yet we finished 309 out of 351 D1 teams in 3PA/FGA.  For what its worth (not much) McNeese State was the 309 ranked team by Pomroy...that's the neighborhood of how bad we were defensively last season in this key metric.

Think Buzz may need to revisit his whole protect the paint at all costs defensive philosophy.  Ironic that in the year the LEAST was expected from Buzz's teams - 2010 - that was the BEST any of his teams defended the three....and then last year when perhaps MORE was expected of that team than any of Buzz's others - it was the WORST at yielding 3 point FG attempts, and subsequently became Buzz's worst team at MU.

[muwarrior69]

Let's face it. Buzz screwed with the team last year and we all now know why. Yes, the projected stats for the team don't look good, but the stats don't measure what is in a kid's mind and attitude. Wesley Mathews really blossomed in his last season after a coaching change. I hope the same can be said for this group as I think they all played well below what they are capable of playing. We will know soon enough if these guys can show their true talent or not.

[Dawson Rental]

Agree with your take.  Got tired of reading here all year how much last season was the fault of Jamil and Davante not being better leaders.  What is ironic, is in the YEAR OF THE GUARD - where to your point - the rules were bent in favor of the guard - our two max minute players (and guards) hand selected by Buzz due to "playing to the scouting report" were unable to generate any value add - all the while making it even more difficult for Davante and Jamil to operate.

But, yea, as about 5 numbskulls here argued all last season it could have gotten worse...a lot worse with playing Dawson and JJJ more.  LOL.

As for Duane Wilson injury hurting the team - think that is a cop out - he was struggling in practice as it was prior to the injury.  Additionally, if Burton, a guy with a 36% chance of making the NBA per value add, and an All Big East freshman team performer could only get 12 minutes per game - I highly doubt Buzz would have given Duane Wilson 25+ minutes per game.  Furthermore, after Dawson practically won us the Georgetown game - it didn't result in anymore playing time.  A whopping 8 minutes the next game.  Nice Buzz.

Playing well against Georgetown was no way to get increased minutes as Steve Taylor discovered, as well.

[Dawson Rental]

I am seeing us at 9-3 in non conference. In conference I think we can go 7-2 at home. 3-6 on the road. Win one game in conference tournament. 20-12.

Wojo will have more sensible playing rotations and that will make a huge difference. We have the talent to compete well.

Please return my avatar.  You have over-imbibed.

[tower912]

This year, MU is two injuries/transfers/academic issues away from being DePaul. For example:  JJJ transfers and STjr reinjures his knee.    Deonte hurts his knee and Dawson gets homesick.   Carlino breaks his foot and Luke is adademically ineligible.   I shudder just to think of any of those things.   It will get better, but this year everything has to go absolutely perfect for this team to be competitive.  

[Wojo'sMojo]

This year, MU is two injuries/transfers/academic issues away from being DePaul. For example:  JJJ transfers and STjr reinjures his knee.    Deonte hurts his knee and Dawson gets homesick.   Carlino breaks his foot and Luke is adademically ineligible.   I shudder just to think of any of those things.   It will get better, but this year everything has to go absolutely perfect for this team to be competitive.  

Wow, quite the optimist you are. This team will be competitive night in and night out, there is too much talent not to be. Just because all the scholarships aren't filled doesn't mean doom and gloom.

[tower912]

I will be thrilled to be wrong.   

[GurneeHitchkr]

Back to topic...

[GurneeHitchkr]

Sorry.  Back to topic...
I just hope they go at least 17-15 to keep the above .500 streak alive.
I at least look forward to seeing the young guys play and see how the others do with Wojo's coaching.  Then in 2 years when we're kicking a$s, I can say "I remember when"...

[Jay Bee]

There is no such thing as 3 point defense.  You can only control whether teams take 3 pointers.  It's been proven by Pomeroy that teams cannot control the opposing teams 3P FG%.  

Your claims are patently false and Ken will tell you that is not something he proves and is not something he believes.

You are confused.

[MU82]

This year, MU is two injuries/transfers/academic issues away from being DePaul. For example:  JJJ transfers and STjr reinjures his knee.    Deonte hurts his knee and Dawson gets homesick.   Carlino breaks his foot and Luke is adademically ineligible.   I shudder just to think of any of those things.   It will get better, but this year everything has to go absolutely perfect for this team to be competitive.  

If they all catch ebola, it will make for a definite downer of a season.

[pbiflyer]

Strange that we were all so worried about who we would hire as a coach or that we talk about in game coaching abilities, since according to the article, it doesn't matter squat.
I prefer the Bum Phillips (former coach of the Houston Oilers, for you youngsters) evaluation of a Don Shula lead team. He said about Shula that he could take his and beat yours, then take yours and beat his.
We will have a whole new system and trying to apply a formula and make a prediction based on it is stupid at best.

[LloydMooresLegs]

Strange that we were all so worried about who we would hire as a coach or that we talk about in game coaching abilities, since according to the article, it doesn't matter squat.
I prefer the Bum Phillips (former coach of the Houston Oilers, for you youngsters) evaluation of a Don Shula lead team. He said about Shula that he could take his and beat yours, then take yours and beat his.
We will have a whole new system and trying to apply a formula and make a prediction based on it is stupid at best.

he would take your'n and beat his'n or his'n and beat your'n

[MUDPT]

Your claims are patently false and Ken will tell you that is not something he proves and is not something he believes.

You are confused.

So 15 teams in Division 1 are outside of 2 standard deviations, in terms of 3P defense.  If it was completely random, he said they would have 7 teams.  I was wrong that teams cannot completely control 3P%, but it is still really random.  Hanner proved though that we were still a little lucky. Yes, teams shot better behind the arc, but they shot worse from the free throw line.  Anything else I'm confused about?  

[THRILLHO]

Rather than asserting that people are confused without offering any specifics let's just look at what he actually says:
http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/3_point_defense_should_not_be_defined_by_opponents_3p

It’s because the defense has little control over its opponents’ 3P%.

(looks at numbers...)

We’re talking about a difference of one make every two or three games between the best and worst groups. Without more analysis, one can’t say precisely how much skill a team has at influencing its opponents’ three-point percentage, but there’s a fair amount of evidence it’s not much

With few exceptions, the best measure of three-point defense is a team’s ability to keep the opponents from taking 3’s.

Nobody with any knowledge of the game would talk about free throw defense using opponents’ FT% as if it was a real thing, yet we’ll hear plenty of references to three-point defense in that way from famous and respected people. Of course, both free-throw defense and three-point defense exist, but it’s much better measured in the amount of shots taken and not in the noisy world of the percentage of shots an opponent makes.

So MUDPT is essentially right about what KenPom says -- you shouldn't measure a defense by the 3 point make percentage. But MUDPT is technically wrong in saying the following as a description of kenpom:

There is no such thing as 3 point defense.

Since in that link KP essentially redefines 3 point defense as limiting the number of 3 point shots taken.

[Dr. Blackheart]

MU's defensive philosophy was the opposite of its offensive under Buzz: Limit paint touches and fouls, chase the three point shooters on ball rotations. According to Pomeroy: Fail--20.0% of MU's points came on treys while 32.9% of its opponents' points came off trios.  Defensively, that was a #14 in bad in the nation, for those keeping score at home.

As mind warping as last season was, MU lost its NCAA bid with losses in its last three games by a total of five points (along with two other BE OT losses). A 20-12 record sure would have sounded nice at season's end, I'm really a badger fan?

[NersEllenson]

MU's defensive philosophy was the opposite of its offensive under Buzz: Limit paint touches and fouls, chase the three point shooters on ball rotations. According to Pomeroy: Fail--20.0% of MU's points came on treys while 32.9% of its opponents' points came off trios.  Defensively, that was a #14 in bad in the nation, for those keeping score at home.

As mind warping as last season was, MU lost its NCAA bid with losses in its last three games by a total of five points (along with two other BE OT losses). A 20-12 record sure would have sounded nice at season's end, I'm really a badger fan?

More mind warping is that as close to victory as we were in those games, we did it while we had a guy who played 37.6 minutes per game, while averaging 1.6ppg, on 2 of 9 FG shooting, and 1 of 6 from the FT Line.  Pretty amazing we could be that close to victory with our leading minute getter in those 3 games making the above contributions.  Point being, the team wasn't very far away from being able to win a lot more games, if it got just minimal/marginal production from that position.  Oh well.  What could have been if only Buzz wasn't being a total and complete douche.

[tower912]

Ners ain't afraid of no ban.