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Author Topic: [Cracked Sidewalks]1st Losing Season Since 1999 Possible Under Projection  (Read 21821 times)

CrackedSidewalksSays

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1st Losing Season Since 1999 Possible Under Projection

Source: 1st Losing Season Since 1999 Possible Under Projection
« Last Edit: August 23, 2014, 08:48:27 AM by mu_hilltopper »

tower912

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Thanks for the projections.    I don't want you to be correct, but this is about what I thought it would be.   
Luke 6:45   ...A good man produces goodness from the good in his heart; an evil man produces evil out of his store of evil.   Each man speaks from his heart's abundance...

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alexius23

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While prepared for a long season with a losing record...one still has hopes......

MU82

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News Item:

Staggered By Projections, Marquette Cancels Season

Wojo: "We'll spend 2014-15 locking down Henry and Haanif and then get ready for 2015-16."
“It’s not how white men fight.” - Tucker Carlson

mu_hilltopper

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This is just a bad dream.

bamamarquettefan

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Well, I am sorry for two things. First, that my big table kept the piece from posting here. Second, the news above that I so discouraged Wojo that he cancelled the season. Hopefully he will read further down to see that we really can exceed these expectations and I do believe he should play out the season just in case :-)

Res   Date   Ven   Rnk   if    Top5 VA   Conf   Tot VA   Tourney   Seed
15-17   Non-Conf      88   Marquette   12.51   BE   14.46   CIT   4-seed
W   11/14/2014      247   Tennessee Martin   3.05   OVC   3.05   no bid   
L   11/18/2014   at   29   Ohio St.   21.47   B10   28.74   NCAA   8-seed
W   11/22/2014      197   Nebraska Omaha   4.6   Sum   4.6   no bid   
W   11/24/2014      182   NJIT   5.15   ind   5.15   no bid   
   Old Spice         in Orlando   3   1   3   1   
W?   11/27/2014   vs   114   Georgia Tech   9.51   ACC   9.61   no bid   
L   11/28/2014   vs   36   Michigan St.   19.2   B10   22.98   NCAA   9-seed
(W)   11/28/2014   vs   175   Rider   5.34   MAAC   5.34   no bid   
(L)   11/30/2014      1   Kansas   34.44   B12   60.6   NCAA   1-seed
(L?)   11/30/2014      76   Rhode Island   13.45   A10   14.43   CIT   2-seed
(L?)   11/30/2014   vs   67   Santa Clara   14.48   WCC   14.9   NIT   4-seed
L?   11/30/2014      62   Tennessee   15.28   SEC   18.46   NIT   3-seed
   Non-Conf            1   2   2   1   
L   12/6/2014      7   Wisconsin   31.15   B10   34.77   NCAA   2-seed
W?   12/16/2014      72   Arizona St.   13.85   P12   17.27   CIT   1-seed
W   12/19/2014      342   Alabama A&M   0.16   SWAC   0.16   no bid   
W   12/22/2014      345   North Dakota   0.02   BSky   0.02   no bid   
W   12/28/2014      290   Morgan St.   1.71   MEAC   1.71   no bid   
   BE Season 6-12            4   1   4   1   
L   1/1/2015   at   50   Butler   17.46   BE   18.68   NCAA   12-playin
L?   1/1/2015      50   Butler   17.46   BE   18.68   NCAA   12-playin
W?   1/1/2015   at   123   Creighton   8.84   BE   11.17   no bid   
W   1/1/2015      123   Creighton   8.84   BE   11.17   no bid   
W   1/1/2015   at   195   DePaul   4.6   BE   6.07   no bid   
W   1/1/2015      195   DePaul   4.6   BE   6.07   no bid   
L   1/1/2015   at   31   Georgetown   20.84   BE   28.81   NCAA   8-seed
L   1/1/2015      31   Georgetown   20.84   BE   28.81   NCAA   8-seed
L   1/1/2015   at   35   Providence   19.31   BE   22.68   NCAA   9-seed
L?   1/1/2015      35   Providence   19.31   BE   22.68   NCAA   9-seed
L?   1/1/2015   at   84   Seton Hall   12.78   BE   15.44   CIT   4-seed
W?   1/1/2015      84   Seton Hall   12.78   BE   15.44   CIT   4-seed
L   1/1/2015   at   45   St. John's   18.33   BE   19.14   NCAA   12-seed
L?   1/1/2015      45   St. John's   18.33   BE   19.14   NCAA   12-seed
L   1/1/2015   at   13   Villanova   26.56   BE   31.26   NCAA   4-seed
L   1/1/2015      13   Villanova   26.56   BE   31.26   NCAA   4-seed
L   1/1/2015   at   63   Xavier   15.23   BE   21.78   NIT   3-seed
W?   1/1/2015      63   Xavier   15.23   BE   21.78   NIT   3-seed
   BE Tourney            6   12   10   8   
               14   16   19   11   
W   3/11/2015   9   123   Creighton (9-seed)   8.84   BE   11.17   no bid   
L   3/12/2015   1   13   Villanova (1-seed)   26.56   BE   31.26   NCAA   4-seed
   CIT Tourney                        
L   3/17/2015      68   Oklahoma St.   14.41   B12   16.01   CIT   1-seed


The www.valueaddsports.com analysis of basketball, football and baseball players are intended to neither be too hot or too cold - hundreds immerse themselves in studies of stats not of interest to broader fan bases (too hot), while others still insist on pure observation (too cold).

bamamarquettefan

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and here is the body of the story that didn't post, though admittedly my longer pieces with tables are easier to view at www.crackedsidewalks.com.

Marquette projects to go 15-17 overall, 6-12 in the Big East, and be eliminated in the first round of the CIT (that's the tournament below the NIT, but better than the CBI). This would give MU its first losing season since Mike Deane went 14-15 in 1999 after fMU has six straight 20-win seasons.

If that happens, MU fans should remember the losing season before that - when many fans booed a young MU team that went 11-18 in 1991 in another coach's first season (Kevin O'Neill). That team went onto go to the Sweet 16 once the freshman had become seniors.

This may come as a shock to many of our fans - as we were all thankfully spoiled as one of less than a half dozen teams to go to the Sweet 16 three years in a row. I ran into a number of Marquette fans in the lobby of my hotel the morning after MU was eliminated from the Big East tournament, and was stunned the main discussion was who MU would host in the first round of the NIT. It was very evident to me that MU was NOT good enough to make the 32-team NIT field, and this year could be even worse.

The fact is I expect MU to exceed the projected value with a realistic shot at the NIT and an outside shot at the NCAA.

Going purely be the Value Add of the top five players for MU and all of the opponents and adjusting for home court, MU has five narrow wins and five narrow losses in a 15-17 season - meaning that if Steve Taylor is fully recovered, John Dawson plays anywhere close to how he played in three great performances last year, and Derrick Wilson can just add marginal offense to his great defense, MU's Value Add would improve enough to turn those five close losses into wins to go 20-13 including an NIT bid.

I believe an NCAA bid is really a reach this year even with players stepping up, but I thought 2010 would be even tougher and Lazar Hayward and Jimmy Butler went to new heights to get what of our most stunning bids - so let's hope for more of the same. Hopefully Buzz's mind was just elsewhere last year, and Wojo is taking the kids to new heights on the court. Here is how the season plays out by pure Value Add:

START 3-1
If MU somehow wins in Ohio State or even stays within single digits, then Wojo has this team ready to far exceed the Value Add projections. More likely that is a bad loss, while Tennessee Martin, Nebraska Omaha and the country's only remaining independent (NJIT) are easy wins to make MU 3-1.

OLD SPICE IN ORLANDO 1-2
It looks very likely that Marquette goes 1-2 over the Thanksgiving weekend. MU has a slight edge over Georgia Tech in the opener, so a win there would be important. MU likely is 1-1 after two games, because a win over Georgia Tech would likely lead to getting beaten badly by Michigan State the next night, while a loss to Georgia Tech likely gives MU an easy win over Rider the next night to even it up.

The big game will likely be on Sunday. MU projects a little lower than potential opponents Rhode Island, Santa Clara and Tennessee, and if some combination of Taylor, Dawson and Derrick Wilson are playing above projections, then MU will have it's first realistic chance for a big win away from home to leave the tournament 2-1. If MU wins the first two games, then the likely opponent is Kansas, which projects No. 1 in Value Add and would be very tough ask. So a 2-1 trip from Orlando - however we get it - could be a huge breakthrough pointing to a much better than projected season.

Rest of non-conference 4-1

An upset of Wisconsin would be very unlikely December 6, so a 4-4 mark would be "par" coming out of the rivalry game. The Bradley Center would give MU a slight edge against Arizona State, so that is a huge must-win - and could let MU get to the end of non-conference play with an 8-4 mark, since MU's easiest three opponents (Alabama A&M, North Dakota and Morgan State) close out the calendar year.

Conference regular season 6-12, one win in tourney

If MU is a few points better than projections, then they can flip projected narrow losses at Seton Hall and at home against Butler, Providence and St. John's to go 10-8 in Big East play.

With a 6-12 mark, MU would project to be the 8-seed in the Big East tournament and potentially beat projected 9-seed Creighton before losing to top-seeded Villanova.

Potential bids

If MU comes out of the Big East tournament with a 15-16 record, they would still merit a bid from the CIT tournament as their last selection - under the hypothetical scenario that each team's Value Add is right, the NCAA takes the best players they can after their automatic bids, the NIT does the same, then the CIT picks the next 16 and the CBI takes the final 16. Obviously all of this is unrealistic, but for arguments sake,:

a. that would leave MU facing the overall No. 1 seed in the CIT tournament - Oklahoma State - and MU would be projected to lose that game and finish 15-17

b. ironically if MU finished just lower, they would hypothetically be the best team in the CBI and have a better chance to add at least a couple of wins and have a winning record.

c. if Taylor, Dawson and Derrick Wilson are joining the others in contributing to turn those five close losses into projected wins, then MU could enter the Big East tournament 10-8, 19-11 and be in solid shape for an NIT bid with an outside shot at the NCAA. The only problem with that scenario is that it likely gets MU out of the opening round Big East tournament games, meaning they might have to beat a 3-seed (Providence) to claim a crucial 20th win for the resume to wrap up an NIT bid or even make the case for the NCAA.

The game-by-game schedule below gives MU a "W" for a likely win, a "W?" for a narrow win under the Value Add projections for each player, a (W) for a possible game against Rider that MU would play if they do not get Michigan State in the 2nd round in Orlando.

The same is true of all variations of "L," as these project as losses but the five "L?" are the key narrow loss projections that would be most likely to flip to wins if MU is a little better than projections.

For each team, we indicate the Value Add of their top five players as well as their overall team, their conference, and their likely post season bid if they also match their projections and all their opponents do the same.

We do not want these projections to be correct - but we want to establish "par" early so we can determine if Marquette is exceeding expectations as the games play out.
The www.valueaddsports.com analysis of basketball, football and baseball players are intended to neither be too hot or too cold - hundreds immerse themselves in studies of stats not of interest to broader fan bases (too hot), while others still insist on pure observation (too cold).

Daniel

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Projections and expectations are low for MU.  Rebuilding year.  But no one has seen them play yet.  Expectations could be accurate, but let's see what Wojo has done with the team and how they respond. Hoping for the best.

NersEllenson

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and here is the body of the story that didn't post, though admittedly my longer pieces with tables are easier to view at www.crackedsidewalks.com.

Marquette projects to go 15-17 overall, 6-12 in the Big East, and be eliminated in the first round of the CIT (that's the tournament below the NIT, but better than the CBI). This would give MU its first losing season since Mike Deane went 14-15 in 1999 after fMU has six straight 20-win seasons.

If that happens, MU fans should remember the losing season before that - when many fans booed a young MU team that went 11-18 in 1991 in another coach's first season (Kevin O'Neill). That team went onto go to the Sweet 16 once the freshman had become seniors.

This may come as a shock to many of our fans - as we were all thankfully spoiled as one of less than a half dozen teams to go to the Sweet 16 three years in a row. I ran into a number of Marquette fans in the lobby of my hotel the morning after MU was eliminated from the Big East tournament, and was stunned the main discussion was who MU would host in the first round of the NIT. It was very evident to me that MU was NOT good enough to make the 32-team NIT field, and this year could be even worse.

The fact is I expect MU to exceed the projected value with a realistic shot at the NIT and an outside shot at the NCAA.

Going purely be the Value Add of the top five players for MU and all of the opponents and adjusting for home court, MU has five narrow wins and five narrow losses in a 15-17 season - meaning that if Steve Taylor is fully recovered, John Dawson plays anywhere close to how he played in three great performances last year, and Derrick Wilson can just add marginal offense to his great defense, MU's Value Add would improve enough to turn those five close losses into wins to go 20-13 including an NIT bid.

I believe an NCAA bid is really a reach this year even with players stepping up, but I thought 2010 would be even tougher and Lazar Hayward and Jimmy Butler went to new heights to get what of our most stunning bids - so let's hope for more of the same. Hopefully Buzz's mind was just elsewhere last year, and Wojo is taking the kids to new heights on the court. Here is how the season plays out by pure Value Add:

START 3-1
If MU somehow wins in Ohio State or even stays within single digits, then Wojo has this team ready to far exceed the Value Add projections. More likely that is a bad loss, while Tennessee Martin, Nebraska Omaha and the country's only remaining independent (NJIT) are easy wins to make MU 3-1.

OLD SPICE IN ORLANDO 1-2
It looks very likely that Marquette goes 1-2 over the Thanksgiving weekend. MU has a slight edge over Georgia Tech in the opener, so a win there would be important. MU likely is 1-1 after two games, because a win over Georgia Tech would likely lead to getting beaten badly by Michigan State the next night, while a loss to Georgia Tech likely gives MU an easy win over Rider the next night to even it up.

The big game will likely be on Sunday. MU projects a little lower than potential opponents Rhode Island, Santa Clara and Tennessee, and if some combination of Taylor, Dawson and Derrick Wilson are playing above projections, then MU will have it's first realistic chance for a big win away from home to leave the tournament 2-1. If MU wins the first two games, then the likely opponent is Kansas, which projects No. 1 in Value Add and would be very tough ask. So a 2-1 trip from Orlando - however we get it - could be a huge breakthrough pointing to a much better than projected season.

Rest of non-conference 4-1

An upset of Wisconsin would be very unlikely December 6, so a 4-4 mark would be "par" coming out of the rivalry game. The Bradley Center would give MU a slight edge against Arizona State, so that is a huge must-win - and could let MU get to the end of non-conference play with an 8-4 mark, since MU's easiest three opponents (Alabama A&M, North Dakota and Morgan State) close out the calendar year.

Conference regular season 6-12, one win in tourney

If MU is a few points better than projections, then they can flip projected narrow losses at Seton Hall and at home against Butler, Providence and St. John's to go 10-8 in Big East play.

With a 6-12 mark, MU would project to be the 8-seed in the Big East tournament and potentially beat projected 9-seed Creighton before losing to top-seeded Villanova.

Potential bids

If MU comes out of the Big East tournament with a 15-16 record, they would still merit a bid from the CIT tournament as their last selection - under the hypothetical scenario that each team's Value Add is right, the NCAA takes the best players they can after their automatic bids, the NIT does the same, then the CIT picks the next 16 and the CBI takes the final 16. Obviously all of this is unrealistic, but for arguments sake,:

a. that would leave MU facing the overall No. 1 seed in the CIT tournament - Oklahoma State - and MU would be projected to lose that game and finish 15-17

b. ironically if MU finished just lower, they would hypothetically be the best team in the CBI and have a better chance to add at least a couple of wins and have a winning record.

c. if Taylor, Dawson and Derrick Wilson are joining the others in contributing to turn those five close losses into projected wins, then MU could enter the Big East tournament 10-8, 19-11 and be in solid shape for an NIT bid with an outside shot at the NCAA. The only problem with that scenario is that it likely gets MU out of the opening round Big East tournament games, meaning they might have to beat a 3-seed (Providence) to claim a crucial 20th win for the resume to wrap up an NIT bid or even make the case for the NCAA.

The game-by-game schedule below gives MU a "W" for a likely win, a "W?" for a narrow win under the Value Add projections for each player, a (W) for a possible game against Rider that MU would play if they do not get Michigan State in the 2nd round in Orlando.

The same is true of all variations of "L," as these project as losses but the five "L?" are the key narrow loss projections that would be most likely to flip to wins if MU is a little better than projections.

For each team, we indicate the Value Add of their top five players as well as their overall team, their conference, and their likely post season bid if they also match their projections and all their opponents do the same.

We do not want these projections to be correct - but we want to establish "par" early so we can determine if Marquette is exceeding expectations as the games play out.

Curious to hear why you expect MU to exceed the model so much this year?  Also, to what do you attribute MU falling so far short of last year's model? 
"I'm not sure Cadougan would fix the problems on this team. I'm not even convinced he would be better for this team than DeWil is."

BrewCity77, December 8, 2013

GGGG

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It's a nice Saturday morning.  The water is like glass.  A slight fog glistens in the rising sunlight on what is going to end up being a glorious sunny day.  Having motored out to his favorite spot and attaching his favorite lure, Ners makes a cast that he hopes will make this morning worthwhile...

bamamarquettefan

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First in response to Daniel, I agree completely. I am particularly sensitive to fans getting down on the kids since I was on campus in the post National Title/Doc Rivers era when everyone was so down on the players who were working really hard to be a solid NIT team. I want us celebrating a great step forward if the guys can play around .500 in conference play - and not feel like that is just a "mediocre" year since we are coming off a dozen years of the unbelievable run of Wade, the Three Amigos, Lazar-Butler and Crowder.

In response to Ners, part of my hope for exceeding expectations, it could be part wishful thinking. However, when I studied the 12 years of player progression, it really is all over the place because we are dealing with 18 year olds. While i put up averages, really 1/3 of players regress, 1/3 improve about what is indicated in the projections, and 1/3 far exceed their projections, so it is just a rough average and I do believe Dawson (flashes of brilliance), Taylor (nagging injury all year) and Derrick Wilson (work ethic in the off season could make him just good enough offensively to make him a good player in light of defense) give a possible good scenario. The problem with that is that I don't know enough about likely breakthroughs on the other Big East teams to know if our upside is really bigger than there's or not.

As for last season, we were clearly going to take a step back even based on projections, but I believe there were two main reasons MU fell so much faster:

1. Duane Wilson injury and resulted point guard play brought everyone down. Gardner was the 55th best player in 2013 and Jamil just missed being in the top 5% (206th) and then in 2014 they did not have a point guard that could get them the ball in position to score AND they faced so many double teams due to defenses pretending Derrick wasn't on the court held their Value Adds way down. Value Add is a measure of the sum of the parts, but last year was more like the "weakest link" of the chain since we not only got a 0.00 from both point guards but in essence they rally held down everyone else.

2. The rules changes were crushing to MU. Our strength coming into the season was a big front line, and in 2014 almost every back-to-the-basket player became marginalized by the new rules. Until then, guards were hand-checked on the way to the basket, and their best option was dumping it to a big man closer to the basket. With the old rules I believe MU was easily an NCAA team this year and Otule and Gardner would have been very important.

Instead last year became completely a year of the guard. I actually had to adjust my guard adjustment for the first time in the 12-years of records in Value Add because guards were getting to the basket so easily off the dribble that they didn't need big men. Delon Wright of Utah was the perfect example of how guards own the game. He was an unknown JUCO who was pretty slight and could have been hand checked the year before, but with the hands off approach on the perimeter as well as near the hoop when contesting a driving guard, Wright hit an insane 62% of his 2-point field goals AS A GUARD! Why ever pass to an Otule or Gardner-type player when you can dribble from the perimeter and hit 62% of your shots? That's the shooting percentage of a great center, not a guard.

It wasn't that post players were really worse, it was that guards could score so much easier last year that big men were RELATIVELY weaker - college basketball had always averaged around 100.0 points per 100 trips, and suddenly it was 104.3 last year as guards dominated and our big men became less relevant. If we could have had these rules while we had the three Amigos the Dominic, Wesley and Jerel would have had an Elite 8 banner to hang.
The www.valueaddsports.com analysis of basketball, football and baseball players are intended to neither be too hot or too cold - hundreds immerse themselves in studies of stats not of interest to broader fan bases (too hot), while others still insist on pure observation (too cold).

Jay Bee

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Quick alternative analysis:

MU's eFG% was crap last year. On offense it was monumentally poor vs. the past decade+. Easily the worst we've seen in more than a decade. Puke. The Warriors lose Davante and Chris, but the comps of others give them a great opportunity for improvement. Jamil's heavy 2FGA (2nd most on team) kept eFG% down. 3FGA/FGA can rise this season and the conversion rate has plenty of room for improvement.

I like MU's eFG% to improve in 2014-15.

MU's defensive eFG% wasn't good either, but mostly due to getting scorched from beyond the arc. BEast opp's shot 39.4% 3FG against MU (and it wasn't all Creighton's doing - many teams got in on the fun). Some love to talk about last year's starting guards from an offensive perspective, but consider their size and athletic abilities as well.

MU's def 2FG% will be challenged, but they can more than make up for it defending the perimeter (3FG% could decrease just because of unusually high numbers / chance and also because of MU's actual defense).

I like MU's defensive eFG% to improve in 2014-15.

eFG% matters most. Let's collect those wins.

NCAA tourney, baby.
Thanks for ruining summer, Canada.

dgies9156

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Quick alternative analysis:

MU's eFG% was crap last year. On offense it was monumentally poor vs. the past decade+. Easily the worst we've seen in more than a decade. Puke. The Warriors lose Davante and Chris, but the comps of others give them a great opportunity for improvement. Jamil's heavy 2FGA (2nd most on team) kept eFG% down. 3FGA/FGA can rise this season and the conversion rate has plenty of room for improvement.

I like MU's eFG% to improve in 2014-15.

MU's defensive eFG% wasn't good either, but mostly due to getting scorched from beyond the arc. BEast opp's shot 39.4% 3FG against MU (and it wasn't all Creighton's doing - many teams got in on the fun). Some love to talk about last year's starting guards from an offensive perspective, but consider their size and athletic abilities as well.

MU's def 2FG% will be challenged, but they can more than make up for it defending the perimeter (3FG% could decrease just because of unusually high numbers / chance and also because of MU's actual defense).

I like MU's defensive eFG% to improve in 2014-15.

eFG% matters most. Let's collect those wins.

NCAA tourney, baby.

Somebody with some sense!

A combination of stubborn coaching, inability to teach and delusional visions about an NCAA invitation led to a severe lack of growth among last year's freshmen. With six to eight games left in the season, half this board still thought Marquette was playing for an NCAA invite. With the way the guys were playing, that was clearly out of reach.

Going into the season, I still think there is more talent on our team than most people are acknowledging. If they're coached well, eager to please and committed to excellence, we're going to be everyone else's nightmare. We won't win 'em all, but by mid-season, we'll be scary.


TAMU, Knower of Ball

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Thank you for all your work on this bama. Fantastic analysis from both you and Jay bee. I especially liked the bit about the rule changes. I knew it improved guard play but didn't think about how it would automatically bring down post play. Seems we picked the worst year to be forward heavy.
TAMU

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Somebody with some sense!

A combination of stubborn coaching, inability to teach and delusional visions about an NCAA invitation led to a severe lack of growth among last year's freshmen. With six to eight games left in the season, half this board still thought Marquette was playing for an NCAA invite. With the way the guys were playing, that was clearly out of reach.

Going into the season, I still think there is more talent on our team than most people are acknowledging. If they're coached well, eager to please and committed to excellence, we're going to be everyone else's nightmare. We won't win 'em all, but by mid-season, we'll be scary.



I think most coaches, especially ones that like to demand raises and test the coaching carousel every year, try to win the season, no matter how lost the season might be. Not saying it's right, just saying it is
TAMU

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MU82

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Well, I am sorry for two things. First, that my big table kept the piece from posting here. Second, the news above that I so discouraged Wojo that he cancelled the season. Hopefully he will read further down to see that we really can exceed these expectations


Phew!
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bamamarquettefan

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Could Deonte shatter Novak's eFG% and offensive rating record?
« Reply #16 on: August 23, 2014, 10:38:31 AM »
Jay Bee is right on eFG% being the single most important factor, and as much as I loved both our centers last year, not having to watch them try to run from the rim to the three-point line on defense will be wonderful.

Steve Novak had the 7th highest Offensive efficiency rating in the history of Pomeroy with a 135.4 points per 100 possessions mainly due to his 64.3 percent eFG% his senior year - but i believe we have a player who can top him in both this year.

I believe Wojo should keep things simple for Deonte and let him go with his instincts.

When he touches the ball, he should continue to rotate between two actions:

1. Every other touch, immediately put up a three-pointer with half of them going in.

2. On the alternate trips, immediately drive to the hoop and tomahawk dunk on top of the biggest opposing player, drawing the foul during each dunk and often injuring the opposing player who tried to block the shot because he did not paid attention to the scouting report film on Deonte: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8kuIm86iAv0

Obviously, Burton will only hit 50% of his free throws instead of the 97% Novak hit, but under this scenario, he will be averaging 2.5 points per possession in which he drives/dunks (dunk plus free throw half of the time) and averaging 1.5 points per possession with three pointer hoisted to shatter the all-time record with an average 2.0 points per possession or a rating of 200.0 per 100 trips on Pomeroy. Novak would then drop to 8th on the all-time list with his meager 135.4 points per 100 trips.
The www.valueaddsports.com analysis of basketball, football and baseball players are intended to neither be too hot or too cold - hundreds immerse themselves in studies of stats not of interest to broader fan bases (too hot), while others still insist on pure observation (too cold).

bamamarquettefan

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Thank you for all your work on this bama. Fantastic analysis from both you and Jay bee. I especially liked the bit about the rule changes. I knew it improved guard play but didn't think about how it would automatically bring down post play. Seems we picked the worst year to be forward heavy.

Thanks, and unfortunately agree completely on your last sentence.
The www.valueaddsports.com analysis of basketball, football and baseball players are intended to neither be too hot or too cold - hundreds immerse themselves in studies of stats not of interest to broader fan bases (too hot), while others still insist on pure observation (too cold).

NersEllenson

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First in response to Daniel, I agree completely. I am particularly sensitive to fans getting down on the kids since I was on campus in the post National Title/Doc Rivers era when everyone was so down on the players who were working really hard to be a solid NIT team. I want us celebrating a great step forward if the guys can play around .500 in conference play - and not feel like that is just a "mediocre" year since we are coming off a dozen years of the unbelievable run of Wade, the Three Amigos, Lazar-Butler and Crowder.

In response to Ners, part of my hope for exceeding expectations, it could be part wishful thinking. However, when I studied the 12 years of player progression, it really is all over the place because we are dealing with 18 year olds. While i put up averages, really 1/3 of players regress, 1/3 improve about what is indicated in the projections, and 1/3 far exceed their projections, so it is just a rough average and I do believe Dawson (flashes of brilliance), Taylor (nagging injury all year) and Derrick Wilson (work ethic in the off season could make him just good enough offensively to make him a good player in light of defense) give a possible good scenario. The problem with that is that I don't know enough about likely breakthroughs on the other Big East teams to know if our upside is really bigger than there's or not.

As for last season, we were clearly going to take a step back even based on projections, but I believe there were two main reasons MU fell so much faster:

1. Duane Wilson injury and resulted point guard play brought everyone down. Gardner was the 55th best player in 2013 and Jamil just missed being in the top 5% (206th) and then in 2014 they did not have a point guard that could get them the ball in position to score AND they faced so many double teams due to defenses pretending Derrick wasn't on the court held their Value Adds way down. Value Add is a measure of the sum of the parts, but last year was more like the "weakest link" of the chain since we not only got a 0.00 from both point guards but in essence they rally held down everyone else.

2. The rules changes were crushing to MU. Our strength coming into the season was a big front line, and in 2014 almost every back-to-the-basket player became marginalized by the new rules. Until then, guards were hand-checked on the way to the basket, and their best option was dumping it to a big man closer to the basket. With the old rules I believe MU was easily an NCAA team this year and Otule and Gardner would have been very important.

Instead last year became completely a year of the guard. I actually had to adjust my guard adjustment for the first time in the 12-years of records in Value Add because guards were getting to the basket so easily off the dribble that they didn't need big men. Delon Wright of Utah was the perfect example of how guards own the game. He was an unknown JUCO who was pretty slight and could have been hand checked the year before, but with the hands off approach on the perimeter as well as near the hoop when contesting a driving guard, Wright hit an insane 62% of his 2-point field goals AS A GUARD! Why ever pass to an Otule or Gardner-type player when you can dribble from the perimeter and hit 62% of your shots? That's the shooting percentage of a great center, not a guard.

It wasn't that post players were really worse, it was that guards could score so much easier last year that big men were RELATIVELY weaker - college basketball had always averaged around 100.0 points per 100 trips, and suddenly it was 104.3 last year as guards dominated and our big men became less relevant. If we could have had these rules while we had the three Amigos the Dominic, Wesley and Jerel would have had an Elite 8 banner to hang.

Agree with your take.  Got tired of reading here all year how much last season was the fault of Jamil and Davante not being better leaders.  What is ironic, is in the YEAR OF THE GUARD - where to your point - the rules were bent in favor of the guard - our two max minute players (and guards) hand selected by Buzz due to "playing to the scouting report" were unable to generate any value add - all the while making it even more difficult for Davante and Jamil to operate.

But, yea, as about 5 numbskulls here argued all last season it could have gotten worse...a lot worse with playing Dawson and JJJ more.  LOL.

As for Duane Wilson injury hurting the team - think that is a cop out - he was struggling in practice as it was prior to the injury.  Additionally, if Burton, a guy with a 36% chance of making the NBA per value add, and an All Big East freshman team performer could only get 12 minutes per game - I highly doubt Buzz would have given Duane Wilson 25+ minutes per game.  Furthermore, after Dawson practically won us the Georgetown game - it didn't result in anymore playing time.  A whopping 8 minutes the next game.  Nice Buzz.
"I'm not sure Cadougan would fix the problems on this team. I'm not even convinced he would be better for this team than DeWil is."

BrewCity77, December 8, 2013

PuertoRicanNightmare

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Honestly, below .500 or not, I am looking forward to this season after the almost unwatchable debacle last year. I just think this team is going to be a lot of fun to watch.

MU82

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Got tired of reading here all year how much last season was the fault of Jamil and Davante not being better leaders. 

I also am not the biggest fan of the leadership excuse.

However, Jamil did not play well that season. It's easy to blame some of it on the players surrounding him, but he was supposed to be our stud. He regressed, he played timidly, he played inefficiently.

Davante had the same teammates around him, and as a low-post center he was more dependent upon others getting him the ball. And he had to play with an ineffective Jamil, while Jamil got to play with an effective Davante. Yet Davante put up more than acceptable numbers.

Jamil's play last season was one of the main things - not THE main thing, but one of them - that condemned us to failure. To suggest otherwise would be revisionist history.
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Texas Western

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and here is the body of the story that didn't post, though admittedly my longer pieces with tables are easier to view at www.crackedsidewalks.com.

Marquette projects to go 15-17 overall, 6-12 in the Big East, and be eliminated in the first round of the CIT (that's the tournament below the NIT, but better than the CBI). This would give MU its first losing season since Mike Deane went 14-15 in 1999 after fMU has six straight 20-win seasons.

If that happens, MU fans should remember the losing season before that - when many fans booed a young MU team that went 11-18 in 1991 in another coach's first season (Kevin O'Neill). That team went onto go to the Sweet 16 once the freshman had become seniors.

This may come as a shock to many of our fans - as we were all thankfully spoiled as one of less than a half dozen teams to go to the Sweet 16 three years in a row. I ran into a number of Marquette fans in the lobby of my hotel the morning after MU was eliminated from the Big East tournament, and was stunned the main discussion was who MU would host in the first round of the NIT. It was very evident to me that MU was NOT good enough to make the 32-team NIT field, and this year could be even worse.

The fact is I expect MU to exceed the projected value with a realistic shot at the NIT and an outside shot at the NCAA.

Going purely be the Value Add of the top five players for MU and all of the opponents and adjusting for home court, MU has five narrow wins and five narrow losses in a 15-17 season - meaning that if Steve Taylor is fully recovered, John Dawson plays anywhere close to how he played in three great performances last year, and Derrick Wilson can just add marginal offense to his great defense, MU's Value Add would improve enough to turn those five close losses into wins to go 20-13 including an NIT bid.

I believe an NCAA bid is really a reach this year even with players stepping up, but I thought 2010 would be even tougher and Lazar Hayward and Jimmy Butler went to new heights to get what of our most stunning bids - so let's hope for more of the same. Hopefully Buzz's mind was just elsewhere last year, and Wojo is taking the kids to new heights on the court. Here is how the season plays out by pure Value Add:

START 3-1
If MU somehow wins in Ohio State or even stays within single digits, then Wojo has this team ready to far exceed the Value Add projections. More likely that is a bad loss, while Tennessee Martin, Nebraska Omaha and the country's only remaining independent (NJIT) are easy wins to make MU 3-1.

OLD SPICE IN ORLANDO 1-2
It looks very likely that Marquette goes 1-2 over the Thanksgiving weekend. MU has a slight edge over Georgia Tech in the opener, so a win there would be important. MU likely is 1-1 after two games, because a win over Georgia Tech would likely lead to getting beaten badly by Michigan State the next night, while a loss to Georgia Tech likely gives MU an easy win over Rider the next night to even it up.

The big game will likely be on Sunday. MU projects a little lower than potential opponents Rhode Island, Santa Clara and Tennessee, and if some combination of Taylor, Dawson and Derrick Wilson are playing above projections, then MU will have it's first realistic chance for a big win away from home to leave the tournament 2-1. If MU wins the first two games, then the likely opponent is Kansas, which projects No. 1 in Value Add and would be very tough ask. So a 2-1 trip from Orlando - however we get it - could be a huge breakthrough pointing to a much better than projected season.

Rest of non-conference 4-1

An upset of Wisconsin would be very unlikely December 6, so a 4-4 mark would be "par" coming out of the rivalry game. The Bradley Center would give MU a slight edge against Arizona State, so that is a huge must-win - and could let MU get to the end of non-conference play with an 8-4 mark, since MU's easiest three opponents (Alabama A&M, North Dakota and Morgan State) close out the calendar year.

Conference regular season 6-12, one win in tourney

If MU is a few points better than projections, then they can flip projected narrow losses at Seton Hall and at home against Butler, Providence and St. John's to go 10-8 in Big East play.

With a 6-12 mark, MU would project to be the 8-seed in the Big East tournament and potentially beat projected 9-seed Creighton before losing to top-seeded Villanova.

Potential bids

If MU comes out of the Big East tournament with a 15-16 record, they would still merit a bid from the CIT tournament as their last selection - under the hypothetical scenario that each team's Value Add is right, the NCAA takes the best players they can after their automatic bids, the NIT does the same, then the CIT picks the next 16 and the CBI takes the final 16. Obviously all of this is unrealistic, but for arguments sake,:

a. that would leave MU facing the overall No. 1 seed in the CIT tournament - Oklahoma State - and MU would be projected to lose that game and finish 15-17

b. ironically if MU finished just lower, they would hypothetically be the best team in the CBI and have a better chance to add at least a couple of wins and have a winning record.

c. if Taylor, Dawson and Derrick Wilson are joining the others in contributing to turn those five close losses into projected wins, then MU could enter the Big East tournament 10-8, 19-11 and be in solid shape for an NIT bid with an outside shot at the NCAA. The only problem with that scenario is that it likely gets MU out of the opening round Big East tournament games, meaning they might have to beat a 3-seed (Providence) to claim a crucial 20th win for the resume to wrap up an NIT bid or even make the case for the NCAA.

The game-by-game schedule below gives MU a "W" for a likely win, a "W?" for a narrow win under the Value Add projections for each player, a (W) for a possible game against Rider that MU would play if they do not get Michigan State in the 2nd round in Orlando.

The same is true of all variations of "L," as these project as losses but the five "L?" are the key narrow loss projections that would be most likely to flip to wins if MU is a little better than projections.

For each team, we indicate the Value Add of their top five players as well as their overall team, their conference, and their likely post season bid if they also match their projections and all their opponents do the same.

We do not want these projections to be correct - but we want to establish "par" early so we can determine if Marquette is exceeding expectations as the games play out.
I am seeing us at 9-3 in non conference. In conference I think we can go 7-2 at home. 3-6 on the road. Win one game in conference tournament. 20-12.

Wojo will have more sensible playing rotations and that will make a huge difference. We have the talent to compete well.

GGGG

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Agree with your take.  Got tired of reading here all year how much last season was the fault of Jamil and Davante not being better leaders.  What is ironic, is in the YEAR OF THE GUARD - where to your point - the rules were bent in favor of the guard - our two max minute players (and guards) hand selected by Buzz due to "playing to the scouting report" were unable to generate any value add - all the while making it even more difficult for Davante and Jamil to operate.

But, yea, as about 5 numbskulls here argued all last season it could have gotten worse...a lot worse with playing Dawson and JJJ more.  LOL.

As for Duane Wilson injury hurting the team - think that is a cop out - he was struggling in practice as it was prior to the injury.  Additionally, if Burton, a guy with a 36% chance of making the NBA per value add, and an All Big East freshman team performer could only get 12 minutes per game - I highly doubt Buzz would have given Duane Wilson 25+ minutes per game.  Furthermore, after Dawson practically won us the Georgetown game - it didn't result in anymore playing time.  A whopping 8 minutes the next game.  Nice Buzz.


Our fearless fisherman, unable to reel in his desired cache, instead lights a stick of dynamite and throws into the lake.

NersEllenson

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Our fearless fisherman, unable to reel in his desired cache, instead lights a stick of dynamite and throws into the lake.

LOL - I am enjoying the fishing analogies Sultan.  Well conceived.  Nonetheless, I'm very comfortable with Bama's takes on what went wrong last season.  I agree with him.  Not surprisingly, you have little you can say or comment on regarding Bama's data, other than "casting" these types of posts, as the data flies in the face of your posts all season long.  May need to try a new fishing hole - such as focusing on the upcoming season - as you were a disaster all last season.  May your posts/casts this upcoming year be more on target.
"I'm not sure Cadougan would fix the problems on this team. I'm not even convinced he would be better for this team than DeWil is."

BrewCity77, December 8, 2013

NersEllenson

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I also am not the biggest fan of the leadership excuse.

However, Jamil did not play well that season. It's easy to blame some of it on the players surrounding him, but he was supposed to be our stud. He regressed, he played timidly, he played inefficiently.

Davante had the same teammates around him, and as a low-post center he was more dependent upon others getting him the ball. And he had to play with an ineffective Jamil, while Jamil got to play with an effective Davante. Yet Davante put up more than acceptable numbers.

Jamil's play last season was one of the main things - not THE main thing, but one of them - that condemned us to failure. To suggest otherwise would be revisionist history.

Except Jamil was actually the only guy that played to his projected Value Add rating last season!  Mayo was only player to exceed his.  Gardner's fell markedly - and believe it was the worst of his four year career. 
"I'm not sure Cadougan would fix the problems on this team. I'm not even convinced he would be better for this team than DeWil is."

BrewCity77, December 8, 2013