Revised PT Predictions for Next Season

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Mayo's gone, who gets the most boost in PT?

Here's my prediction (based on little to no information in most cases)

1: Carlino (26 minutes) Derrick (14 minutes)
2: Duane (18 minutes) (Dawson 14 minutes) Carlino (6 minutes) JJJ (2 minutes)
3: Johnson (18 minutes) Anderson (14 minutes) Cohen (8 minutes)
4: Burton (30 minutes) Taylor (6 minutes) Anderson (4 minutes)
5: Fischer (22 minutes) Taylor (18 minutes)

Totals:
Carlino 32 minutes
Burton 30 minutes
Taylor 24 minutes
Fischer 22 minutes
Johnson 20 minutes
Anderson 18 minutes
Duane 18 minutes
Derrick 14 minutes
Dawson 14 minutes
Cohen 8 minutes

[HutchwasClutch]

It's so hard to say with a new coach.  

I highly doubt Derrick's going from leading the team in minutes at 30 a game last year to only 14 this year, new coach or not.  His experience, on ball defense, leadership, strong assist/turnover will see him earn way more minutes than 14 per game I think, although I don't think he'll lead the team.  I think you're right on w/ Carlino's projection and leading the team.

I don't think Burton goes to 30 per game either.  I think mid 20's and Taylor Jr. and Fischer earn a few more.  They're are only bigs.  One and sometimes both of them are almost going to have to be on the floor at all times (unless in blowouts).

Should be interesting.  

[brandx]

It's so hard to say with a new coach.  

I highly doubt Derrick's going from leading the team in minutes at 30 a game last year to only 14 this year, new coach or not.  His experience, on ball defense, leadership, strong assist/turnover will see him earn way more minutes than 14 per game I think, although I don't think he'll lead the team.  I think you're right on w/ Carlino's projection and leading the team.

I don't think Burton goes to 30 per game either.  I think mid 20's and Taylor Jr. and Fischer earn a few more.  They're are only bigs.  One and sometimes both of them are almost going to have to be on the floor at all times (unless in blowouts).

Should be interesting.  

I agree on Derrick - think he will be around 20 -24.

On Burton - I think he will get 30 if he is in shape, but with the way he plays and energy he expends, I would guess 25 - 27 a game.

[WarriorFan]

What if Derrick learned how to shoot over the summer?

He's already:
- a good rebounder
- a decent but not fantastic distributor
- got "blow by" speed and can finish high and strong
- the right body size/shape/strength/height
- a decent defender

If Derrick comes back able to shoot FT's and 3's he's gonna get some serious minutes!

[Texas Western]

Mayo's gone, who gets the most boost in PT?

Here's my prediction (based on little to no information in most cases)

1: Carlino (26 minutes) Derrick (14 minutes)
2: Duane (18 minutes) (Dawson 14 minutes) Carlino (6 minutes) JJJ (2 minutes)
3: Johnson (18 minutes) Anderson (14 minutes) Cohen (8 minutes)
4: Burton (30 minutes) Taylor (6 minutes) Anderson (4 minutes)
5: Fischer (22 minutes) Taylor (18 minutes)

Totals:
Carlino 32 minutes
Burton 30 minutes
Taylor 24 minutes
Fischer 22 minutes
Johnson 20 minutes
Anderson 18 minutes
Duane 18 minutes
Derrick 14 minutes
Dawson 14 minutes
Cohen 8 minutes

Looks reasonable.
I would take Carlino to 25  and move Duane to 25. Also Move JJJ to 26 and Cohen to 2

[NersEllenson]

It's so hard to say with a new coach.  

I highly doubt Derrick's going from leading the team in minutes at 30 a game last year to only 14 this year, new coach or not.  His experience, on ball defense, leadership, strong assist/turnover will see him earn way more minutes than 14 per game I think, although I don't think he'll lead the team.  

This is a different roster than last year, so to base thoughts off of last year's playing time allocation isn't really valid in that:  Carlino transferred in at PG position, Duane Wilson healthy, and Dawson one year older/more experienced.  I highly doubt if Wojo thought Derrick Wilson was a game changer, or worthy of 30 minutes a game, he would have brought in a 1-year rental at the same position, to compete with the incumbent senior.

I've never seen Duane play, so hard to make a guess on what he'll get, but others seem REALLY high on him.  Yet, how what they've seen of Duane against high school and AAU competition translates to high major ball in one's first year, is hard to project.

PG - Carlino 27, Derrick 10, Dawson 3
2G - Duane 20/Dawson 20
3G - JJJ 27/Anderson 13
4 - Burton 30/Steve Taylor 10
5 - Fischer 25/Steve Taylor 15

Don't see Cohen getting any time come conference play.  Wojo will have ideal 9 man rotation.  Rhythm/efficiency will improve for all returning players.

Think it will be a lot of fun to watch in non-conference play who steps up out of the guards - as it sounds like Wojo isn't seeing things in the traditional sense of having a formal PG - Carlino said it will just be 3 guards...with the possibility that different people will bring the ball up/initiate the offense.  The way I see it there are 5 guys competing for 120 minutes as I feel we'll go 3 guards all season long:  Derrick, Duane, JJJ, John, Carlino.

[GGGG]

I wouldn't doubt that at least to start the year, Derrick starts at PG and Carlino at SG.  


So to start the season, I am going with this...

1. Derrick (20), Carlino (10), Dawson (10)
2. Carlino (20), Duane (20)
3. Johnson (25), Anderson (5), Cohen (10)
4. Burton (25), Anderson (15)
5. Taylor (30), Burton (5), Anderson (5)


When Fischer gets eligible and the conference season starts, I am thinking more like this...

1. Derrick (18), Carlino (10), Dawson (12)
2. Carlino (20), Duane (20)
3. Johnson (25), Anderson (10), Duane (5 - SMALL BALL!!)
4. Burton (25), Taylor (10), Anderson (5)
5. Fischer (25), Taylor (15)


The wildcards to me is Duane Wilson and his role.  If the guy can shoot like he did in high school, I might be underestimating his minutes.  Also Johnson and Dawson could be much better than I am giving them credit for.  They could take up more minutes.

I see Anderson being the super-sub type and playing a little bit of everywhere.  Doing nothing spectacular but a lot of little things. 

I think most of the guards are interchangeable.  You have four guards that could conceivably play point guard. 

[The Equalizer]

One of our PGs is going to emerge as better than the other(s). I'm not going to wade into the debate on which one that is--but going to make the observation that the better of the two or three will get more minutes than people are guessing here--unless we wind up in a lot of blowouts one way or the other.

Think for a moment about coaching strategy in a close game--you want your best players in for the maximum number of minutes.  If we're in a neck-and-neck game with Villanova, and lets say Carlino emerges a better PG than Dawson or Wilson.  Wojo is going to want Carlino in the game for as many minutes as possible--perhaps even approaching 35 to 40, assuming Carlino has the endurance, the pace of the game permits, etc.  Go back through the years and we've seen this time and time again.

The only way that the backup PG will see minutes rise is if we're either blowing teams out (in which case coaches give reserves more playing time) or being blown out (in which case the reserves will play as the coach tries to find a winning mix of players on the court).

I doubt we'll see any type of 26/14 split for average miniutes at the PG assuming a normal mix of competitive games--I would think 30-10 is more likely, with 32-8 to 35-5 possible in the close games.

[GGGG]

One of our PGs is going to emerge as better than the other(s). I'm not going to wade into the debate on which one that is--but going to make the observation that the better of the two or three will get more minutes than people are guessing here--unless we wind up in a lot of blowouts one way or the other.

Think for a moment about coaching strategy in a close game--you want your best players in for the maximum number of minutes.  If we're in a neck-and-neck game with Villanova, and lets say Carlino emerges a better PG than Dawson or Wilson.  Wojo is going to want Carlino in the game for as many minutes as possible--perhaps even approaching 35 to 40, assuming Carlino has the endurance, the pace of the game permits, etc.  Go back through the years and we've seen this time and time again.

The only way that the backup PG will see minutes rise is if we're either blowing teams out (in which case coaches give reserves more playing time) or being blown out (in which case the reserves will play as the coach tries to find a winning mix of players on the court).

I doubt we'll see any type of 26/14 split for average miniutes at the PG assuming a normal mix of competitive games--I would think 30-10 is more likely, with 32-8 to 35-5 possible in the close games.

Yeah I think you are right.  I gave a bunch of players about 25 minutes of game time, but you know one or two guys will emerge that will be around 32-35 mpg.  I think we just want to hedge our bets a little.

[jsglow]

Looks reasonable.
I would take Carlino to 25  and move Duane to 25. Also Move JJJ to 26 and Cohen to 2

JJJ is simply not going to average more minutes than Carlino.

[Warrior Code]

What if Derrick learned how to shoot over the summer?

He's already:
- a good rebounder
- a decent but not fantastic distributor
- got "blow by" speed and can finish high and strong
- the right body size/shape/strength/height
- a decent defender

If Derrick comes back able to shoot FT's and 3's he's gonna get some serious minutes!

I for one don't know what to make of this, but I'll dream the dream right along with you - and will be ecstatic if it comes true.

Can we also make Juan four inches taller?

[bilsu]

One of our PGs is going to emerge as better than the other(s). I'm not going to wade into the debate on which one that is--but going to make the observation that the better of the two or three will get more minutes than people are guessing here--unless we wind up in a lot of blowouts one way or the other.

Think for a moment about coaching strategy in a close game--you want your best players in for the maximum number of minutes.  If we're in a neck-and-neck game with Villanova, and lets say Carlino emerges a better PG than Dawson or Wilson.  Wojo is going to want Carlino in the game for as many minutes as possible--perhaps even approaching 35 to 40, assuming Carlino has the endurance, the pace of the game permits, etc.  Go back through the years and we've seen this time and time again.

The only way that the backup PG will see minutes rise is if we're either blowing teams out (in which case coaches give reserves more playing time) or being blown out (in which case the reserves will play as the coach tries to find a winning mix of players on the court).

I doubt we'll see any type of 26/14 split for average miniutes at the PG assuming a normal mix of competitive games--I would think 30-10 is more likely, with 32-8 to 35-5 possible in the close games.

I think you are not remembering that Wojo said we are not going to have a designated point guard. MU has had two extremes in coaching. Tom Crean with his 100-200 plays he would run. That offense needs a designated point guard to call and run the plays. Buzz's offense was a motion/decision making offene that generally did not run set plays. We also had McGuire who ran one basic offense with a few variations to it. McGuire said he rather be really good at one than somewhat good at several. Now that Mayo is out of the picture we have only guards who can play point. Derrick, Duane, Dawson and Carlino can all bring the ball up and intiate an offense. Maybe not a Tom Crean type offense, but certainly a Buzz type offense. I suspect Wojo is somewhere in between the two extremes. I picture more of the offense that Buzz ran when he had Aker, Culliban and DJO. The offense will concentrate on a on moving the ball around the perimeter looking for three point shots, which makes Taylor and Fischer's primarily offense job to rebound. Now in a close game coming out of a timeout there probably will be a designated play and a designated point guard. However, that will not determine who plays the most otherwise.

[HutchwasClutch]

JJJ is simply not going to average more minutes than Carlino.

+10

And neither is Duane Wilson, who's never played one second at this level going to equal Carlino's average minutes; Carlino who has had double digit scoring averages every season on NCAA teams.  

Let's take a deep breath and find out if and how much JJJ and Duane Wilson can play.  Like everyone, I'm going to be rooting like crazy for both of them, like all our guys, but the way they're being anointed on this board by some before they've accomplished anything yet is just irrational.

[WarriorFan]

I for one don't know what to make of this, but I'll dream the dream right along with you - and will be ecstatic if it comes true.

Can we also make Juan four inches taller?

Well please don't read any Ners style ambitions into it.  I just hope the guy learns to shoot because he has a lot of other tools, then Carlino can play the 2, JJJ @ 3, Burton at 4 and taylor at 5.  We could run a few teams out of the gym.  When the big guy is ready, we've got two guys at 5, Taylor and Juan and Burton at 4, Burton and JJJ at 3, Carlino, Dawson and Duane at 2 and Duane/Derrick/Dawson at 1. 

Not deep, but athletic.

[NersEllenson]

What if Derrick learned how to shoot over the summer?

He's already:
- a good rebounder
- a decent but not fantastic distributor
- got "blow by" speed and can finish high and strong
- the right body size/shape/strength/height (for an NFL Running Back)
- a decent very good defender

If Derrick comes back able to shoot FT's and 3's he's gonna get some serious minutes!

Fixed it for you..

Will be shocked if Derrick can improve by the 20-30% he needs to at FTs and 3's to be a High Major D-1 major minute player at PG.  My view, he's too muscle bound to develop into a good shooter.  There's a reason you rarely see guys built like him playing PG at this level.  He's a perfect 10 minute a game back up at this level.  Nothing more.

[bilsu]

Fixed it for you..

Will be shocked if Derrick can improve by the 20-30% he needs to at FTs and 3's to be a High Major D-1 major minute player at PG.  My view, he's too muscle bound to develop into a good shooter.  There's a reason you rarely see guys built like him playing PG at this level.  He's a perfect 10 minute a game back up at this level.  Nothing more.

I am not sure how much point Derrick will play. Assuming he is on the floor with Duane and Carlino, I would expect him to be the three and not the 1. He has more strength than the other two and is a good rebounder for his size. He actually is our leading returning rebounder. Although Derrick played point last year he was not a point guard. He showed very little ability to actually distribute the ball. Remember he played the two in high school. Maybe Buzz's greatest failure was the inability to recruit true point guards. He only signed one point guard that stayed in Cadougan. I do not remember if Reggie Smith was a true point or a combo. Buycks was a two asked to play the point. Duane is similar to Buycks. They are quick with the ball and offensive threats, but are not true distributors.

[alexius23]

For the first time since the early Mike Deane era I am entering a season thinking reaching the NIT would be an achievement.

[NersEllenson]

For the first time since the early Mike Deane era I am entering a season thinking reaching the NIT would be an achievement.

The Deane year's post O'Neill's talent were a tragedy.  However, this team has WAY MORE TALENT on it than any of Deane's recruited teams.  We have 4 Top 50 players! 

We may be a little small up front, but there is a lot of talent.  I'll personally be surprised if we don't win 20 games...would have thought 23 with Mayo.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

The Deane year's post O'Neill's talent were a tragedy.  However, this team has WAY MORE TALENT on it than any of Deane's recruited teams.  We have 4 Top 50 players! 

We may be a little small up front, but there is a lot of talent.  I'll personally be surprised if we don't win 20 games...would have thought 23 with Mayo.

This is what gives me hope. If you remove last year's performance from your mind, and just look at our roster, it looks pretty good. Usually, if you have a roster that contains:

1 3 year starter that has a double digit career ppg for one of the top mid-majors
1 top 100 player in his fourth year (even if he's under performed to this point)
1 former starter who averaged 30+ minutes last season
1 top 100 player in his third year
4 top 100 players in their second years
1 3 star PG who showed promise in his freshman campaign
1 top 100 freshman

This seems like a roster of at least a tournament team. The height is definitely a concern. Wojo definitely gets a challenge in his first season.

[hoops12]

Burton is an incredible athlete and may very well accomplish a great deal in his career at Marquette. Many on the message boards have considered him an early entry into the NBA. Some think that he is our savior for next season. In my opinion, too many have already put him in the "elite" college basketball player category. I think he has a long way to go!

I love his freakish athleticism, and the strength he possesses is incredible. With that being said, he is an average shooter, and up to this point he hasn't displayed "basic" basketball fundamentals nor does he play in a way that he makes his teammates better. At times last year he scored in bunches, mainly because he shot just about every time he touched the ball. At other times he looks like a bull in a China shop. He has a high ceiling, and his potential is definitely something to be excited about. However, at this point in his career he has an awful lot to prove to be in an "elite" category. I would still consider him more of an athlete than a basketball player. Can he get there? Absolutely! However, it's going to take time, patience, and a lot of hard work on his part.

GO MU!

[keefe]

We may be a little small up front

Speak for yourself

[NersEllenson]

Speak for yourself

Well played Keefe.   

[NersEllenson]

This is what gives me hope. If you remove last year's performance from your mind, and just look at our roster, it looks pretty good. Usually, if you have a roster that contains:

1 3 year starter that has a double digit career ppg for one of the top mid-majors
1 top 100 player in his fourth year (even if he's under performed to this point)
1 former starter who averaged 30+ minutes last season
1 top 100 player in his third year
4 top 100 players in their second years
1 3 star PG who showed promise in his freshman campaign
1 top 100 freshman

This seems like a roster of at least a tournament team. The height is definitely a concern. Wojo definitely gets a challenge in his first season.

The exact analysis you give is the reason why I am so bullish on next year's team.  Still was more bullish with Mayo on the team, as I have no doubt he would have been a 17+ppg scorer.  But, the talent is there between JJJ, Duane, Dawson, Burton, Steve, Luke, Carlino.  Think Juan could play a nice little role as well - about 10-15 minutes a game in a Fulce-like role.  Think we'll see consistent rotations come conference play and Wojo roll with 8.5 man rotation.

May start out a little slow but really think the team will find its rhythm be mid January, and be really good in conference play there on out.

[Galway Eagle]

The Deane year's post O'Neill's talent were a tragedy.  However, this team has WAY MORE TALENT on it than any of Deane's recruited teams.  We have 4 Top 50 players! 

We may be a little small up front, but there is a lot of talent.  I'll personally be surprised if we don't win 20 games...would have thought 23 with Mayo.

I'm confused I know they weren't great but the guy got us two NCAA appearances and a NIT finals appearance it can't have been a huge tragedy.