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Author Topic: Partially Formed Thoughts on Next Year's Expectations  (Read 16827 times)

Jay Bee

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Re: Partially Formed Thoughts on Next Year's Expectations
« Reply #25 on: July 29, 2014, 07:27:51 PM »
Henry - just two things on first glance:

1) Steve - based on natural progression and team needs, I'd like to see him as a 'contributor' - specifically, somewhere in the area of 21 to 22% usage. Last year was just goofy for him. Fantastic 55% eFG as a frosh, then down to a putrid 34% as a sophomore.. his at the rim shooting: 30/42 FR year for 71.4%; 15/33 45.5%. 71.4% is a bit much to ask if he's our 'big' to start off the year, but something over 50% is reasonable to expect.  Big year and opportunity for him.

2) Overall efficiency... remember with the change in application of foul calls we saw a significant increase in efficiency not seen in years. Two seasons ago (and for a number of years prior) the 100 would make sense.. (100.4 two years ago... bounced around 100-102 for a number of seasons going back before that)... but, avg'd ppp jumped to around 104.3. A 4% increase in efficiency is meaningful... perhaps enough to move your classifications of 'solid' vs. 'inefficient', etc..

Anyway, more of a point that I have had to make to myself repeatedly -- 2013-14 was a 'different game' than 2012-13 when considering advanced statistics between years. 
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GGGG

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Re: Partially Formed Thoughts on Next Year's Expectations
« Reply #26 on: July 29, 2014, 07:30:44 PM »
I think a lot of Taylor's issues last year were lingering affects from his knee surgery.  I expect him to be an improved version of the freshman STJ.

tower912

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Re: Partially Formed Thoughts on Next Year's Expectations
« Reply #27 on: July 29, 2014, 07:33:31 PM »
Partially agree, Sultan.   We will see a healthy STjr, but we will see him playing the 5 for a fair amount of the season and then splitting the rest between the 4 and the 5.   Not sure how he will do playing big. 
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Lennys Tap

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Re: Partially Formed Thoughts on Next Year's Expectations
« Reply #28 on: July 29, 2014, 07:41:28 PM »


LOL.  It really is funny that you truly believe this.

LOL. The numbers say you're wrong, but what are facts against the Ner's offense only eye test.

Dr. Blackheart

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Re: Partially Formed Thoughts on Next Year's Expectations
« Reply #29 on: July 29, 2014, 08:41:30 PM »
Buzz's offensive statistics were the mirror opposite of his defensive stats, and they separated further the longer he was here.  Paint touches, prevent paint touches.  Get fouled, don't foul.  Take a two, make them take threes.  Low turnovers, force turnovers.

But coaches adjusted over time to him and the talent he recruited matched his philosophy for better or worse.  MU's three point shooting (rate and shooting %) declined over time, while the opponents' increased.  MU's two point field goal stats similarly increased while the two defensive stats got better as MU protected the paint.  Free throw rates were high on offense and low on defense. Same with turnovers. 

End of the day, Buzz's <over> obsession with paint touches was his strength and weakness (see Henry's previous CS article).  But his real weakness was his inability/unwillingness to adapt to his talent and game planing over time.  His over reliance on paint touches came at the loss of perspective on spacing.

The Midgets was perhaps the best coaching job I have seen, while last year's job was perhaps the biggest misuse of natural resources (usage), really starting out of the gate, and made worse by transfer and injuries.

These individual stats will be very different under the new coach mainly because of style of play. Duane will be a star, Juan will not be a PF trapped in a 2 guard's body, and Burton will be unleashed. Carlino will be the floor leader missing last year. The end record may be the same or slightly better, but the use of the resources and style of play will match the talent. But, the one thing that has to happen, that didn't last season, is this team really needs to bond together, of which, I am leery.

Silkk the Shaka

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Re: Partially Formed Thoughts on Next Year's Expectations
« Reply #30 on: July 29, 2014, 09:01:47 PM »
And you Sir are merely a low life bomb thrower. And speaking of intelligence/dumbness, exactly what are your qualifications, education level, and major accomplishments?.....Crickets, I suspect.

I got a 36 on my SAT and have a perfect 100 IQ

Silkk the Shaka

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Re: Partially Formed Thoughts on Next Year's Expectations
« Reply #31 on: July 29, 2014, 09:21:35 PM »
After getting a chance to look at this further, I remember some post (maybe on CS, maybe written by you or bamamarquettefan) where each star ranking out of high school was analyzed by how they improved efficiency or win score by year (ex. frosh to soph, soph to junior, junior to senior). If you can find it, you could apply that same analysis here, then maybe do a base case, best case, worst case scenario based on 1 standard deviation above or below each player's mean expected output this year.

After writing that out it sounds like a lot of work, but would definitely be an interesting read. I'll try to find the article.

Ellenson Guerrero

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Re: Partially Formed Thoughts on Next Year's Expectations
« Reply #32 on: July 29, 2014, 09:38:43 PM »
It'll be really interesting to see how Wojo handles Carlino.  He likely will need to shoot quite a bit to provide us with the scoring we need to win this season, but long term it might be better for the program to put the ball in Duane and Dawson's hands. 
"What we take for-granted, others pray for..." - Brent Williams 3/30/14

real chili 83

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Re: Partially Formed Thoughts on Next Year's Expectations
« Reply #33 on: July 29, 2014, 09:58:39 PM »
Buzz's offensive statistics were the mirror opposite of his defensive stats, and they separated further the longer he was here.  Paint touches, prevent paint touches.  Get fouled, don't foul.  Take a two, make them take threes.  Low turnovers, force turnovers.

But coaches adjusted over time to him and the talent he recruited matched his philosophy for better or worse.  MU's three point shooting (rate and shooting %) declined over time, while the opponents' increased.  MU's two point field goal stats similarly increased while the two defensive stats got better as MU protected the paint.  Free throw rates were high on offense and low on defense. Same with turnovers. 

End of the day, Buzz's <over> obsession with paint touches was his strength and weakness (see Henry's previous CS article).  But his real weakness was his inability/unwillingness to adapt to his talent and game planing over time.  His over reliance on paint touches came at the loss of perspective on spacing.

The Midgets was perhaps the best coaching job I have seen, while last year's job was perhaps the biggest misuse of natural resources (usage), really starting out of the gate, and made worse by transfer and injuries.

These individual stats will be very different under the new coach mainly because of style of play. Duane will be a star, Juan will not be a PF trapped in a 2 guard's body, and Burton will be unleashed. Carlino will be the floor leader missing last year. The end record may be the same or slightly better, but the use of the resources and style of play will match the talent. But, the one thing that has to happen, that didn't last season, is this team really needs to bond together, of which, I am leery.

Doc, welcome back.  Good to hear your opinion.

jesmu84

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Re: Partially Formed Thoughts on Next Year's Expectations
« Reply #34 on: July 29, 2014, 09:59:52 PM »
Well at the end of the day, Buzz played a highly inefficient role player more minutes than any other guy on the team. And he played his one solid major player last season 12 minutes per game.  That's just bizarre to me...and a testament to his poor coaching decision last season.

I won't re-hash any further on this either...but...I can assure you...Derrick was not the best option last year.  When you are a freshman and know Buzz will yank you for virtually anything he may not like...it mindf*cks the way you play..shoot too soon..bench..have a turnover forcing the action...bench...yet the veteran in front of you can basically do nothing and play max minutes.  Playing to not screw up, is not playing to win.  So you are Dawson and you come in the game...and can see that the guy in front of you basically doesn't have to do ANYTHING other than not turn the ball over...and he gets max minutes...perhaps you start to think the same way...maybe I shouldn't try to shoot, force the action, or risk making a mistake..as the quick hook awaits.  The freshman basically had to be perfect for Buzz to play them any kind of extended run...which was sad..and not the way a player should be coached.

As a basic, basic logical construct, if this quote, by you, is true: "one guy didn't have any type of relevant sample size nor statistical relevance" then the above bolded quote cannot be known. You can KNOW Derrick wasn't good. You cannot KNOW anyone was better merely d/t there not being enough relevant sample size or statistical relevance.

jesmu84

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Re: Partially Formed Thoughts on Next Year's Expectations
« Reply #35 on: July 29, 2014, 10:00:07 PM »
I got a 36 on my SAT and have a perfect 100 IQ

Brutal.

Silkk the Shaka

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Re: Partially Formed Thoughts on Next Year's Expectations
« Reply #36 on: July 29, 2014, 10:03:41 PM »
Brutal.

Congrats! You got half the joke.

NersEllenson

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Re: Partially Formed Thoughts on Next Year's Expectations
« Reply #37 on: July 29, 2014, 11:31:40 PM »
As a basic, basic logical construct, if this quote, by you, is true: "one guy didn't have any type of relevant sample size nor statistical relevance" then the above bolded quote cannot be known. You can KNOW Derrick wasn't good. You cannot KNOW anyone was better merely d/t there not being enough relevant sample size or statistical relevance.

Yes...I agree...as a logical construct...your point is correct.  Yet I know that logic dosen't always apply to sports.  

I'm sorry, but I can tell you that John Dawson is a better basketball player, with a much higher ceiling than Derrick Wilson just from watching the two play.  I don't care if Dawson's stats offered in this are contrary to my point, because all stats are not created equally, or given the same environment to be attained.  What I know is a guy who consistently gets 30+ minutes a game and compiles the stats of an inefficient role player..is greatly underproducing what his minute allocation suggests.  I also know a guy who averages 10 minutes a game, and frequently those 10 minutes were comprised of 3 different 3 minute stints of action, of which it was possible the player could play with as many as 10 different guys in those 3 minutes - those stats aren't worth a lick - yet even given all of that disruption, and lack of ability to get into any kind of rhythm...

These stats are reality:

81% FT shooter
28% 3 point shooter
Must be guarded everywhere on the floor
2nd best points per 100 possessions against defensive rating

43% FT shooter
7% 3 point shooter
Only needs to be guarded within 2 feet of the basket, otherwise no threat to sag off of him 5 feet everywhere else on the court.
Best points per 100 possessions against defensive rating.

"I'm not sure Cadougan would fix the problems on this team. I'm not even convinced he would be better for this team than DeWil is."

BrewCity77, December 8, 2013

TAMU, Knower of Ball

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Re: Partially Formed Thoughts on Next Year's Expectations
« Reply #38 on: July 30, 2014, 12:13:08 AM »
I won't re-hash any further on this either

Then....

...but...I can assure you...Derrick was not the best option last year.  When you are a freshman and know Buzz will yank you for virtually anything he may not like...it mindf*cks the way you play..shoot too soon..bench..have a turnover forcing the action...bench...yet the veteran in front of you can basically do nothing and play max minutes.  Playing to not screw up, is not playing to win.  So you are Dawson and you come in the game...and can see that the guy in front of you basically doesn't have to do ANYTHING other than not turn the ball over...and he gets max minutes...perhaps you start to think the same way...maybe I shouldn't try to shoot, force the action, or risk making a mistake..as the quick hook awaits.  The freshman basically had to be perfect for Buzz to play them any kind of extended run...which was sad..and not the way a player should be coached.

And....

 

I'm sorry, but I can tell you that John Dawson is a better basketball player, with a much higher ceiling than Derrick Wilson just from watching the two play.  I don't care if Dawson's stats offered in this are contrary to my point, because all stats are not created equally, or given the same environment to be attained.  What I know is a guy who consistently gets 30+ minutes a game and compiles the stats of an inefficient role player..is greatly underproducing what his minute allocation suggests.  I also know a guy who averages 10 minutes a game, and frequently those 10 minutes were comprised of 3 different 3 minute stints of action, of which it was possible the player could play with as many as 10 different guys in those 3 minutes - those stats aren't worth a lick - yet even given all of that disruption, and lack of ability to get into any kind of rhythm...

These stats are reality:

81% FT shooter
28% 3 point shooter
Must be guarded everywhere on the floor
2nd best points per 100 possessions against defensive rating

43% FT shooter
7% 3 point shooter
Only needs to be guarded within 2 feet of the basket, otherwise no threat to sag off of him 5 feet everywhere else on the court.
Best points per 100 possessions against defensive rating.



Three things in life are certain, death, taxes, and Ners' inability to resist restating his opinion on Derrick v Dawson ad naseum
TAMU

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TAMU, Knower of Ball

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Re: Partially Formed Thoughts on Next Year's Expectations
« Reply #39 on: July 30, 2014, 12:24:53 AM »
Yes...I agree...as a logical construct...your point is correct


Ners! I'm so proud! This all we ever wanted you to see! Proving Derrick was a well below average pg was a matter of fact. Proving Dawson was better was a matter of opinion. We have finally found the middle ground! This is a great day in scoop history.
Yet I know that logic dosen't always apply to sports.  

I'm sorry, but I can tell you that John Dawson is a better basketball player, with a much higher ceiling than Derrick Wilson just from watching the two play.  I don't care if Dawson's stats offered in this are contrary to my point, because all stats are not created equally, or given the same environment to be attained.  What I know is a guy who consistently gets 30+ minutes a game and compiles the stats of an inefficient role player..is greatly underproducing what his minute allocation suggests.  I also know a guy who averages 10 minutes a game, and frequently those 10 minutes were comprised of 3 different 3 minute stints of action, of which it was possible the player could play with as many as 10 different guys in those 3 minutes - those stats aren't worth a lick - yet even given all of that disruption, and lack of ability to get into any kind of rhythm...

These stats are reality:

81% FT shooter
28% 3 point shooter
Must be guarded everywhere on the floor
2nd best points per 100 possessions against defensive rating

43% FT shooter
7% 3 point shooter
Only needs to be guarded within 2 feet of the basket, otherwise no threat to sag off of him 5 feet everywhere else on the court.
Best points per 100 possessions against defensive rating.



Oh gawddammit. I feel for the old bait and switch
« Last Edit: July 30, 2014, 12:26:24 AM by TAMU Eagle »
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rocky_warrior

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Re: Partially Formed Thoughts on Next Year's Expectations
« Reply #40 on: July 30, 2014, 12:44:02 AM »
Ners...don't do it man.  Just don't do it.  If I see this same argument go on again for a few pages, I'm gonna' click the ban button.  If you'd care to comment on Sugar's original post, feel free.

p.s. - same goes for anyone responding to Ners about Derrick.  In this thread or any future ones.

UticaBusBarn

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Re: Partially Formed Thoughts on Next Year's Expectations
« Reply #41 on: July 30, 2014, 02:41:17 AM »

But coaches adjusted over time to him and the talent he recruited matched his philosophy for better or worse.  MU's three point shooting (rate and shooting %) declined over time, while the opponents' increased.  MU's two point field goal stats similarly increased while the two defensive stats got better as MU protected the paint.  Free throw rates were high on offense and low on defense. Same with turnovers. 

But his real weakness was his inability/unwillingness to adapt to his talent and game planing over time.  His over reliance on paint touches came at the loss of perspective on spacing.

The Midgets was perhaps the best coaching job I have seen, while last year's job was perhaps the biggest misuse of natural resources (usage), really starting out of the gate, and made worse by transfer and injuries.

But, the one thing that has to happen, that didn't last season, is this team really needs to bond together, of which, I am leery.



I could not agree more on Beauregard's best coaching year and his worst.

While Beauregard was clearly a good recruiter and an equally good motivator, at times he was also a good X's and O's guy ... but, only at times. The Syracuse game where he had Junior run the point from the wing, and the Butler game during the NCAA final 8 come to mind. Overall, Beauregard did show himself to be be a good technical coach. And, these past two years, indeed, reflect poor usage of talent with last year seeming to show a certain "cluelessness."

Regarding bonding, that factor depends in great part on the "head-guy", and this is true in all organization situations. Certainly Coach Wojo seems to being doing all the right things in building his team/family ... but, time will tell.

Finally, regarding advanced statistics/individual performance, and, in particular, the 2014-15 season, it strikes me that this coming year will be all about speed. As in, and here I am quoting the late, great Beauregard, "Fast beats big, if fast is fast." Should the Warriors be really fast, and if the play fast and smart, a number of the optimistic projections made by Henry will be proven true.

Regardless, the coming season ought to be interesting and a good indication of the future direction of the program.

Henry Sugar

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Re: Partially Formed Thoughts on Next Year's Expectations
« Reply #42 on: July 30, 2014, 07:26:12 AM »
2) Overall efficiency... remember with the change in application of foul calls we saw a significant increase in efficiency not seen in years. Two seasons ago (and for a number of years prior) the 100 would make sense.. (100.4 two years ago... bounced around 100-102 for a number of seasons going back before that)... but, avg'd ppp jumped to around 104.3. A 4% increase in efficiency is meaningful... perhaps enough to move your classifications of 'solid' vs. 'inefficient', etc..

Anyway, more of a point that I have had to make to myself repeatedly -- 2013-14 was a 'different game' than 2012-13 when considering advanced statistics between years.  

Excellent point (this was my caveat #2, but you've actually done some of the work). By the way, that drastically changes the perception of Burton (going from solid to inefficient) and Carlino (just barely above inefficient).

Also agree 100% about FST being more likely to improve upon his freshman year more than last year.

The Midgets was perhaps the best coaching job I have seen, while last year's job was perhaps the biggest misuse of natural resources (usage), really starting out of the gate, and made worse by transfer and injuries.

These individual stats will be very different under the new coach mainly because of style of play. Duane will be a star, Juan will not be a PF trapped in a 2 guard's body, and Burton will be unleashed. Carlino will be the floor leader missing last year. The end record may be the same or slightly better, but the use of the resources and style of play will match the talent. But, the one thing that has to happen, that didn't last season, is this team really needs to bond together, of which, I am leery.

Agree with everything you posted, but am quoting this for emphasis. Also, it's always a good day when Doc B chimes in.

After getting a chance to look at this further, I remember some post (maybe on CS, maybe written by you or bamamarquettefan) where each star ranking out of high school was analyzed by how they improved efficiency or win score by year (ex. frosh to soph, soph to junior, junior to senior). If you can find it, you could apply that same analysis here, then maybe do a base case, best case, worst case scenario based on 1 standard deviation above or below each player's mean expected output this year.

After writing that out it sounds like a lot of work, but would definitely be an interesting read. I'll try to find the article.

Bama did a version where he looked at improvement by recruit rankings. There's a similar analysis done by Hoya Prospectus based on where a player starts at the usage/efficiency range and how much they improved. That was my caveat #1

Ners...don't do it man.  Just don't do it.  If I see this same argument go on again for a few pages, I'm gonna' click the ban button.  If you'd care to comment on Sugar's original post, feel free.

p.s. - same goes for anyone responding to Ners about Derrick.  In this thread or any future ones.

thank you

and thanks to everyone that added some feedback.
« Last Edit: July 30, 2014, 09:39:01 AM by Henry Sugar »
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tower912

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Re: Partially Formed Thoughts on Next Year's Expectations
« Reply #43 on: July 30, 2014, 07:28:30 AM »
Ners...don't do it man.  Just don't do it.  If I see this same argument go on again for a few pages, I'm gonna' click the ban button.  If you'd care to comment on Sugar's original post, feel free.

p.s. - same goes for anyone responding to Ners about Derrick.  In this thread or any future ones.

I swear I hear "Ode to Joy" playing in the background. 
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It is better to be fearless and cheerful than cheerless and fearful.

NersEllenson

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Re: Partially Formed Thoughts on Next Year's Expectations
« Reply #44 on: July 30, 2014, 08:35:45 AM »
Ners...don't do it man.  Just don't do it.  If I see this same argument go on again for a few pages, I'm gonna' click the ban button.  If you'd care to comment on Sugar's original post, feel free.

p.s. - same goes for anyone responding to provoking Ners about Derrick.  In this thread or any future ones.


Actually Henry's number prove exactly what I was saying about last year all along...

That Derrick was a substandard point guard, but he was the best of bad options.  As you can see, Dawson wasn't very good either.

No worries Rocky - just want to point out that once again I didn't start the "debate" again in this thread ...wasn't going to comment on Sugar's offering...but yet again others feel compelled to re-hash and provoke with their opinion on John/Derrick.  I do appreciate you realizing it takes two sides to debate/argue, and certainly Sultan, Tower, TAMU and Lenny have been the perpetuators of the debate and are just as much to blame for the discussion continuing as am I.  I appreciate you recognizing this, and placing them under the same ban warning.

"I'm not sure Cadougan would fix the problems on this team. I'm not even convinced he would be better for this team than DeWil is."

BrewCity77, December 8, 2013

Silkk the Shaka

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Re: Partially Formed Thoughts on Next Year's Expectations
« Reply #45 on: July 30, 2014, 09:10:05 AM »

Bama did a version where he looked at improvement by recruit rankings. There's a similar analysis done by Hoya Prospectus based on where a player starts at the usage/efficiency range and how much they improved. That was my caveat #1


Cool, yeah that's the one I remember. I thought you were looking for ways to flesh it out more and turn it from a partially formed thought into a full CS post, but looking back yet again I don't think that was the case, just a way to get people thinking about expectations for next year's squad (it definitely worked in my case, thanks for putting it together)

Henry Sugar

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Re: Partially Formed Thoughts on Next Year's Expectations
« Reply #46 on: July 30, 2014, 09:22:12 AM »
I'm digging through some work on various websites and will start posting pieces as I sort through them.

First, here is one of the original articles about effective usage, from none other than Ken Pomeroy in 2007

http://www.basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=9



Focus on the heavy blue lines, which represent the 25th percentile and 75th percentile. To clarify, a player with a usage of 20 in Year 1 has a 50% chance of finishing with a usage between 18 and 22.

There is a key passage in the article (emphasis mine)

Quote
Once a player demonstrates himself to be a role player, it's unlikely he'll ever be a go-to guy and, therefore, a superstar. It's not quite a law in college basketball, but players who are not very involved in the offense tend to stay that way. Any major changes in a player's usage are usually the result of filling the hole left by a departing possession eater.

There are three key points here. First, for MU, there are two possession eaters to replace. They are Gardner (26%) and Jamil (23%). Second, a new coach changes everything. Third, I would argue that it is more likely for a dramatic change for the freshmen (JJJ/Dawson) instead of the juniors (Juan/Wilson).

Using Pomeroy's table, what does that give us for #mubb?



Here are the min, 25th percentile, 75th percentile, and max predictions on usage for each returning player. The most likely view is somewhere between the 25th and 75th percentage. Burton projects as a usage range somewhere between 26% and 30%, so a dramatic increase in usage is unlikely. JJJ projects as a usage range between 15 and 18% (which are both role player levels), but he is a candidate for greater usage increase based on the new coach.

Here is the same approach but I've used words instead of numbers.



Of course, none of this gets to potential changes in efficiency, which we will look at later.
« Last Edit: July 30, 2014, 09:25:57 AM by Henry Sugar »
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TAMU, Knower of Ball

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Re: Partially Formed Thoughts on Next Year's Expectations
« Reply #47 on: July 30, 2014, 09:47:55 AM »
No worries Rocky - just want to point out that once again I didn't start the "debate" again in this thread ...wasn't going to comment on Sugar's offering...but yet again others feel compelled to re-hash and provoke with their opinion on John/Derrick.  I do appreciate you realizing it takes two sides to debate/argue, and certainly Sultan, Tower, TAMU and Lenny have been the perpetuators of the debate and are just as much to blame for the discussion continuing as am I.  I appreciate you recognizing this, and placing them under the same ban warning.



Agreed. Both sides are at fault. Thank you Rocky
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Silkk the Shaka

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Re: Partially Formed Thoughts on Next Year's Expectations
« Reply #48 on: July 30, 2014, 10:03:21 AM »
Sugar, this is amazing off-season stuff

Canned Goods n Ammo

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Re: Partially Formed Thoughts on Next Year's Expectations
« Reply #49 on: July 30, 2014, 10:13:55 AM »
I'm digging through some work on various websites and will start posting pieces as I sort through them.

First, here is one of the original articles about effective usage, from none other than Ken Pomeroy in 2007

http://www.basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=9



Focus on the heavy blue lines, which represent the 25th percentile and 75th percentile. To clarify, a player with a usage of 20 in Year 1 has a 50% chance of finishing with a usage between 18 and 22.

There is a key passage in the article (emphasis mine)

There are three key points here. First, for MU, there are two possession eaters to replace. They are Gardner (26%) and Jamil (23%). Second, a new coach changes everything. Third, I would argue that it is more likely for a dramatic change for the freshmen (JJJ/Dawson) instead of the juniors (Juan/Wilson).

Using Pomeroy's table, what does that give us for #mubb?



Here are the min, 25th percentile, 75th percentile, and max predictions on usage for each returning player. The most likely view is somewhere between the 25th and 75th percentage. Burton projects as a usage range somewhere between 26% and 30%, so a dramatic increase in usage is unlikely. JJJ projects as a usage range between 15 and 18% (which are both role player levels), but he is a candidate for greater usage increase based on the new coach.

Here is the same approach but I've used words instead of numbers.



Of course, none of this gets to potential changes in efficiency, which we will look at later.

Question for the group:

How much does a player's role effect his efficiency (or potential efficiency)?

Example:
Jake Thomas was never born to be a world beater, but in theory, he could have been more efficient in a limited role. Same for Derrick. In theory, if Derrick's minutes decreased and his role is more limited, wouldn't his efficiency go up (but I suppose his usage would go down, right?)

Or, what about a PG who is surrounded by great players/shooters. Wouldn't his efficiency look pretty good because he would rarely have to shoot unless wide open, and he could rack up a lot of assists?