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Author Topic: 2014 MLB Thread & Pissing Match  (Read 242712 times)

wadesworld

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Re: 2014 MLB Thread & Pissing Match
« Reply #725 on: September 30, 2014, 12:09:10 PM »
Ellenson's World, I don't think you're wrong, because I don't know.  I have no idea the extent of help PEDs gave Braun.  PEDs certainly help or people wouldn't risk bans to take them.  Just offering my two cents to make the bet fair.

That is fair.  I'm up for whatever statistic that somebody finds to prove whether or not Braun's production returns to what it was or not.  Just waiting for someone who defends Braun to put their money down on this.
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Benny B

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Re: 2014 MLB Thread & Pissing Match
« Reply #726 on: September 30, 2014, 12:19:46 PM »
2) Braun has been playing with the strike zone his whole career.  When you are talking about overall offensive numbers in baseball this argument might make some sense.  When you are talking about an individual player who has proven he can put up big numbers with this strike zone it doesn't have anything to do with the argument.  There hasn't been some drastic change to how baseball is played during Braun's career.  The strike zone may have been smaller for Babe Ruth than it is for Ryan Braun and given Ruth an advantage, but Braun has proven he can put up big numbers with the strike zone Braun sees.  It didn't go from a small strike zone to a giant strike zone or shift from high to low within Braun's career.

http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/just-a-bit-outside/story/the-impact-of-the-evolving-strike-zone-090914

The definition of the strike zone itself has not changed, but there is plenty of data out there to support that umpires' "interpretation" of the strike zone has changed, with one study indicating that overall, the strike zone has increased around the knees by 30 sq-in since 2010.  

Incidentally, if you look at his hitting zones, his numbers on pitches at the knees have deteriorated more than any other zone over the past few seasons... in 2012, Braun he hit over .370 on strikes at the knees, this year, he hit .294 on strikes at the knees.  So the argument that a decline in Braun's numbers have been impacted by an evolving strike zone has some plausibility; however, by no means is it conclusive.
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wadesworld

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Re: 2014 MLB Thread & Pissing Match
« Reply #727 on: September 30, 2014, 12:20:57 PM »
http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/just-a-bit-outside/story/the-impact-of-the-evolving-strike-zone-090914

The definition of the strike zone itself has not changed, but there is plenty of data out there to support that umpires' "interpretation" of the strike zone has changed, with one study indicating that overall, the strike zone has increased around the knees by 30 sq-in since 2010.  

Incidentally, if you look at his hitting zones, his numbers on pitches at the knees have deteriorated more than any other zone over the past few seasons... in 2012, Braun he hit over .370 on strikes at the knees, this year, he hit .294 on strikes at the knees.  So the argument that a decline in Braun's numbers have been impacted by an evolving strike zone has some plausibility; however, by no means is it conclusive.

Interesting.  I stand corrected.
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CTWarrior

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Re: 2014 MLB Thread & Pissing Match
« Reply #728 on: September 30, 2014, 02:52:55 PM »
http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/just-a-bit-outside/story/the-impact-of-the-evolving-strike-zone-090914

The definition of the strike zone itself has not changed, but there is plenty of data out there to support that umpires' "interpretation" of the strike zone has changed, with one study indicating that overall, the strike zone has increased around the knees by 30 sq-in since 2010.  

Incidentally, if you look at his hitting zones, his numbers on pitches at the knees have deteriorated more than any other zone over the past few seasons... in 2012, Braun he hit over .370 on strikes at the knees, this year, he hit .294 on strikes at the knees.  So the argument that a decline in Braun's numbers have been impacted by an evolving strike zone has some plausibility; however, by no means is it conclusive.

Thanks, this is what I was referring to.
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CTWarrior

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Re: 2014 MLB Thread & Pissing Match
« Reply #729 on: October 01, 2014, 03:50:34 PM »
That was a great game last night.  I'm a big Lester fan and was hoping the A's would win, but when it mattered they couldn't keep the Royals off base or stop the running game once they got there.  Don't see the Royals challenging the Angels much, but you never know.

I'll never understand what these guys are thinking.  How could Yost bring in a guy with 1 career relief appearance who had thrown 73 pitches on Sunday to protect a one run lead with two on and no out with the best trio of relievers in baseball available?
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CreightonWarrior

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Re: 2014 MLB Thread & Pissing Match
« Reply #730 on: October 01, 2014, 04:12:59 PM »

I'll never understand what these guys are thinking.  How could Yost bring in a guy with 1 career relief appearance who had thrown 73 pitches on Sunday to protect a one run lead with two on and no out with the best trio of relievers in baseball available?

Because Yost is horrible.


brandx

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Re: 2014 MLB Thread & Pissing Match
« Reply #731 on: October 01, 2014, 04:15:28 PM »
http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/just-a-bit-outside/story/the-impact-of-the-evolving-strike-zone-090914

The definition of the strike zone itself has not changed, but there is plenty of data out there to support that umpires' "interpretation" of the strike zone has changed, with one study indicating that overall, the strike zone has increased around the knees by 30 sq-in since 2010.  

Incidentally, if you look at his hitting zones, his numbers on pitches at the knees have deteriorated more than any other zone over the past few seasons... in 2012, Braun he hit over .370 on strikes at the knees, this year, he hit .294 on strikes at the knees.  So the argument that a decline in Braun's numbers have been impacted by an evolving strike zone has some plausibility; however, by no means is it conclusive.

Saw an interesting stat on the distance traveled on balls that Braun hit in the air to all fields.

On fly balls to left field, the average decreased around 23 feet from the average two years ago. PEDs or thumb? Maybe we will find out next year.

brandx

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Re: 2014 MLB Thread & Pissing Match
« Reply #732 on: October 01, 2014, 04:17:34 PM »
That was a great game last night.  I'm a big Lester fan and was hoping the A's would win, but when it mattered they couldn't keep the Royals off base or stop the running game once they got there.  Don't see the Royals challenging the Angels much, but you never know.

I'll never understand what these guys are thinking.  How could Yost bring in a guy with 1 career relief appearance who had thrown 73 pitches on Sunday to protect a one run lead with two on and no out with the best trio of relievers in baseball available?

Host is horrible. Why change how you coached the rest of the year for one game?

wadesworld

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Re: 2014 MLB Thread & Pissing Match
« Reply #733 on: October 01, 2014, 06:02:05 PM »
Host is horrible. Why change how you coached the rest of the year for one game?

This specific move wasn't the right move, but just about every manager in baseball would change how they've coached a team in the Wild Card game.  A standard regular season game, 1 of 162 games in a season, is much, much difference than a 1 game, do-or-die situation.  You're willing to risk a loss in any old game.  You're not willing to risk a loss in the Wild Card game.  You pull out all the stops in a Wild Card  game vs. a July game even if it's against your biggest Divisional rival.
« Last Edit: October 01, 2014, 06:03:51 PM by Ellenson's World »
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ChicosBailBonds

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Re: 2014 MLB Thread & Pissing Match
« Reply #734 on: October 01, 2014, 07:19:01 PM »
That was a great game last night.  I'm a big Lester fan and was hoping the A's would win, but when it mattered they couldn't keep the Royals off base or stop the running game once they got there.  Don't see the Royals challenging the Angels much, but you never know.

I'll never understand what these guys are thinking.  How could Yost bring in a guy with 1 career relief appearance who had thrown 73 pitches on Sunday to protect a one run lead with two on and no out with the best trio of relievers in baseball available?

I wanted the A's to win since my Halos got the winner.  Very worried about the Royals.  I'll be there tomorrow and Friday cheering on the red.

brandx

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Re: 2014 MLB Thread & Pissing Match
« Reply #735 on: October 01, 2014, 07:19:34 PM »
This specific move wasn't the right move, but just about every manager in baseball would change how they've coached a team in the Wild Card game.  A standard regular season game, 1 of 162 games in a season, is much, much difference than a 1 game, do-or-die situation.  You're willing to risk a loss in any old game.  You're not willing to risk a loss in the Wild Card game.  You pull out all the stops in a Wild Card  game vs. a July game even if it's against your biggest Divisional rival.

My mistake. I made a general statement and should have been more specific. Maybe I just assumed everyone knew how horrible Yost was with pitching moves from his time in Milwaukee.

My reference was strictly about the pitching moves he made.

Jay Bee

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Re: 2014 MLB Thread & Pissing Match
« Reply #736 on: October 01, 2014, 10:29:26 PM »
Hey, anyone know who KC's first base coach is?
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LloydMooresLegs

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Re: 2014 MLB Thread & Pissing Match
« Reply #737 on: October 02, 2014, 07:01:21 AM »
That was a great game last night.  I'm a big Lester fan and was hoping the A's would win, but when it mattered they couldn't keep the Royals off base or stop the running game once they got there.  Don't see the Royals challenging the Angels much, but you never know.

I'll never understand what these guys are thinking.  How could Yost bring in a guy with 1 career relief appearance who had thrown 73 pitches on Sunday to protect a one run lead with two on and no out with the best trio of relievers in baseball available?

Ironic that Billy B's team lost in large part as a result of steals (7!) and sacrifice bunts (at least 2 that I saw in the late innings) he so eschews.

CTWarrior

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Re: 2014 MLB Thread & Pissing Match
« Reply #738 on: October 02, 2014, 07:25:25 AM »
Ironic that Billy B's team lost in large part as a result of steals (7!) and sacrifice bunts (at least 2 that I saw in the late innings) he so eschews.

Hard to argue with what worked, but I think the way the Royals were stealing bases at will, the sacrifice bunts were probably not a good idea.  The Royals successfully sacrifice bunted 4 times, but only 1 led to a run.  That was when Dyson was sacrificed to second.  He then stole thrird and scored on a sac fly.  You could make the argument he should have stole second and saved the out.

You're odds of scoring a run with a runner on first and no outs is greater than your odds of scoring a run with a runner on second and one out.  That's why Beane eschews the sac bunt.  A successful sac bunt slightly decreases the likelihood you'll score one run and greatly decreases the likelihood you'll score more than one run. so it is not the percentage play.  It still has it's place, basically when the hitter is very double-play prone or is just plain dreadful (like a pitcher).

I think the metrics-driven thought process on SBs will change if the general offensive decline in baseball continues.  Risking the out on SBs is a bad idea when you've got extra bases hitters up and down the lineup, but with recent slide in hitting getting a base without giving up an out will be a more attractive option.
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Benny B

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Re: 2014 MLB Thread & Pissing Match
« Reply #739 on: October 02, 2014, 08:49:32 AM »
I'll never understand what these guys are thinking.  How could Yost bring in a guy with 1 career relief appearance who had thrown 73 pitches on Sunday to protect a one run lead with two on and no out with the best trio of relievers in baseball available?

Uhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh..... maybe because he wanted to save his relievers for an extra inning game?  Duh.
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GGGG

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Re: 2014 MLB Thread & Pissing Match
« Reply #740 on: October 02, 2014, 08:53:59 AM »
Uhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh..... maybe because he wanted to save his relievers for an extra inning game?  Duh.


So you would pitch the worn out guy in the sixth inning instead of pitching your bullpen guys an inning early in case of hypothetical extra innings? 

Lennys Tap

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Re: 2014 MLB Thread & Pissing Match
« Reply #741 on: October 02, 2014, 09:09:04 AM »
Hard to argue with what worked, but I think the way the Royals were stealing bases at will, the sacrifice bunts were probably not a good idea.  The Royals successfully sacrifice bunted 4 times, but only 1 led to a run.  That was when Dyson was sacrificed to second.  He then stole thrird and scored on a sac fly.  You could make the argument he should have stole second and saved the out.

You're odds of scoring a run with a runner on first and no outs is greater than your odds of scoring a run with a runner on second and one out.  That's why Beane eschews the sac bunt.  A successful sac bunt slightly decreases the likelihood you'll score one run and greatly decreases the likelihood you'll score more than one run. so it is not the percentage play.  It still has it's place, basically when the hitter is very double-play prone or is just plain dreadful (like a pitcher).

I think the metrics-driven thought process on SBs will change if the general offensive decline in baseball continues.  Risking the out on SBs is a bad idea when you've got extra bases hitters up and down the lineup, but with recent slide in hitting getting a base without giving up an out will be a more attractive option.

Totally agree with this. KC giving up outs for a base made little sense. When you add the fact that the base could have been pretty much stolen at will anyway it made no sense.

CTWarrior

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Re: 2014 MLB Thread & Pissing Match
« Reply #742 on: October 02, 2014, 09:57:31 AM »

So you would pitch the worn out guy in the sixth inning instead of pitching your bullpen guys an inning early in case of hypothetical extra innings? 

At least use one of your ace relievers to escape the jam and save the tired starter for a fresh inning or extra innings.
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brandx

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Re: 2014 MLB Thread & Pissing Match
« Reply #743 on: October 02, 2014, 10:13:13 AM »
Totally agree with this. KC giving up outs for a base made little sense. When you add the fact that the base could have been pretty much stolen at will anyway it made no sense.

It's like "Yeah, well it's Ned Yost" is the answer to half of the posts here

Benny B

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Re: 2014 MLB Thread & Pissing Match
« Reply #744 on: October 02, 2014, 10:38:24 AM »

So you would pitch the worn out guy in the sixth inning instead of pitching your bullpen guys an inning early in case of hypothetical extra innings? 

What hypothetical?  Look at the box score.... the game didn't hypothetically go into extra innings, it did go into extra innings.
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CreightonWarrior

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Re: 2014 MLB Thread & Pissing Match
« Reply #745 on: October 02, 2014, 10:39:21 AM »
It's like "Yeah, well it's Ned Yost" is the answer to half of the posts here
I think it works every time too!

Glad the Pirates lost, got pretty sick of them througout the season.

CTWarrior

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Re: 2014 MLB Thread & Pissing Match
« Reply #746 on: October 02, 2014, 10:59:07 AM »
What hypothetical?  Look at the box score.... the game didn't hypothetically go into extra innings, it did go into extra innings.

The reason it went to extra innings is because he brought in the wrong guy.  And he didn't use any of his three bullpen aces in extra innings, so your point still doesn't make any sense.  Forget that if he used his good relievers right away they would almost definitely have won without extras, what about other better options (how about a friggin lefty?) to pitch to Moss.  Not to mention he could not possibly know what Ventura would have because he put him in a situation he had never been in before.  The guy had just thrown 73 pitches on Sunday!  He's not a reliever!  It really was an indefensible decision.
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GGGG

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Re: 2014 MLB Thread & Pissing Match
« Reply #747 on: October 02, 2014, 11:03:00 AM »
What hypothetical?  Look at the box score.... the game didn't hypothetically go into extra innings, it did go into extra innings.


But he didn't know that when he made the pitching change. 

GGGG

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Re: 2014 MLB Thread & Pissing Match
« Reply #748 on: October 02, 2014, 11:03:58 AM »
At least use one of your ace relievers to escape the jam and save the tired starter for a fresh inning or extra innings.


Or here's a whacky thought.  Actually try to use one of these relievers for more than just an inning! 

GGGG

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Re: 2014 MLB Thread & Pissing Match
« Reply #749 on: October 02, 2014, 01:51:59 PM »
BTW, I was reading up on Ryan Braun's thumb and didn't understand the timeline completely.  He tested positive in October 2011.  He put up real good numbers the next season under increased testing.  From a Haurdricort article...

"But, while undergoing increased drug testing in 2012 without a positive result, he arguably had a better season than the year before, batting .319 with 41 home runs, 112 RBI, 108 runs scored, 30 stolen bases and .987 OPS."