2014 MLB Thread & Pissing Match

[NavinRJohnson]

Brewers organization really taking Braun's fake thumb injury rouse to the extreme, by scheduling surgery for this week.

http://m.brewers.mlb.com/news/article/96804688/milwaukee-brewers-ryan-braun-optimistic-procedure-will-fix-thumb-issue

[wadesworld]

Brewers organization really taking Braun's fake thumb injury rouse to the extreme, by scheduling surgery for this week.

http://m.brewers.mlb.com/news/article/96804688/milwaukee-brewers-ryan-braun-optimistic-procedure-will-fix-thumb-issue

Yeah it's just weird that, you know, this thumb injury has been happening for years and he was suspended for the 2nd half of the season last year, plus had the offseason after that, and didn't choose to have surgery.  It's really weird.

[wadesworld]

Brewers organization really taking Braun's fake thumb injury rouse to the extreme, by scheduling surgery for this week.

http://m.brewers.mlb.com/news/article/96804688/milwaukee-brewers-ryan-braun-optimistic-procedure-will-fix-thumb-issue

But hey, I'm glad this is going to fix him.  I can't wait to see him back at .323, 41 homers, 120 RBIs again next year!  You want to put a friendly on this one?  Over, .305, 30+ homers, 105+ RBIs I owe you something (donation to a charity of your choice?), under .290, under 25 homers, under 95 RBIs you owe me something?  I mean, it's the thumb that's causing his numbers to go from .320, 40, 120 down to .270, 20, 100, right?  And that's going to be fixed, so he'll be back!

[NavinRJohnson]

Yeah it's just weird that, you know, this thumb injury has been happening for years and he was suspended for the 2nd half of the season last year, plus had the offseason after that, and didn't choose to have surgery.  It's really weird.

No actually, if you paid any attention to the numerous comments said and written by Doug Melvin, Gord Ash, Ron roenicke, the brewers beat writers, etc., it isn't weird at all. Of course those comments don't don't fit your conspiratorial narrative, so my guess is that you've willingly ignored them.

I mean why bother reading the explanation provided, when its so much more fun to just make up your own...

It has prevented him from properly gripping the bat, but Braun did not schedule a fix until now because of the rare nature of the injury and uncertainty surrounding surgical options.

"It's far less invasive than what the other options were [because] we're not removing the nerve," Braun said. "I'm optimistic. We've obviously tried rest, we've tried to use all types of different technology, we've tried everything we have here to treat it in as many ways as you could possibly imagine, with very little success. So I'm very optimistic and I think the trainers are very optimistic."

BTW, this has been consistently reported from Spring Training, on.

[wadesworld]

No actually, if you paid any attention to the numerous comments said and written by Doug Melvin, Gord Ash, Ron roenicke, the brewers beat writers, etc., it isn't weird at all. Of course those comments don't don't fit your conspiratorial narrative, so my guess is that you've willingly ignored them.

So why not have the surgery when he had more time, being suspended for the 2nd half of last season?  I guess that's not weird to you?  Having his .320, 40, 120 bat in the lineup vs. his .273, 21, 100 bat in the lineup?  I guess our offense was so good down the stretch it really wouldn't have made a difference at all?  Oh wait...

So again, you want to put a wager on this one?  He will be healthy finally, so next year we should all expect .320, 40, 120.  Right?

[NavinRJohnson]

So why not have the surgery when he had more time, being suspended for the 2nd half of last season?  I guess that's not weird to you?  Having his .320, 40, 120 bat in the lineup vs. his .273, 21, 100 bat in the lineup?  I guess our offense was so good down the stretch it really wouldn't have made a difference at all?  Oh wait...

Using that 'logic' why is he having surgery now? Just for fun? Obviously they all know that it's just a fake excuse, but hey, let's go slice your hand open and mess around in there. Hands aren't important for a baseball player anyway. Either it's a fake injury as you have contended all along, and there is no reason for surgery, or it's is a real injury that has affected his hitting, that surgery may or may not help.

So we're clear, for your position to remain consistent, he is having unnecessary surgery to fix a non-existent injury. Is that correct?

Btw, your wager is stupid, for many reasons, and they flat out say (again) that surgery guarantees nothing. In fact the previous recommendation may have done more harm than good, so you really don't understand why they may have chosen to wait? Of course you do, but that doesn't fit your narrative. Your strawman approach is so much more fun, and requires very little thought.

[wadesworld]

Using that 'logic' why is he having surgery now? Just for fun? Obviously they all know that it's just a fake excuse, but hey, let's go slice your hand open and mess around in there. Hands aren't important for a baseball player anyway. Either it's a fake injury as you have contended all along, and there is no reason for surgery, or it's is a real injury that has affected his hitting, that surgery may or may not help.

So we're clear, for your position to remain consistent, he is having unnecessary surgery to fix a non-existent injury. Is that correct?

Btw, your wager is stupid, for many reasons, and they flat out say (again) that surgery guarantees nothing. In fact the previous recommendation may have done more harm than good, so you really don't understand why they may have chosen to wait? Of course you do, but that doesn't fit your narrative. Your strawman approach is so much more fun, and requires very little thought.

Your first paragraph and your last paragraph are complete contradictions haha.  He wouldn't have a surgery on his hand if it wasn't a real injury because he wouldn't want to mess around with/cut open his hand when it could do more harm than good.  Yet you say again that it won't fix the problem, but they're going to cut open his hand and mess around with it anyways.

You also cite an article that has a title (big, at the top of the page for you) that says, "Braun optimistic procedure will fix thumb issue."  So what, last offseason it wouldn't have but this year, after the thumb injury apparently worsened, it will?  Fair enough, I guess.

Put your money where your mouth is.  Braun is optimistic this surgery will fix his thumb issue.  With that being the case, since the thumb issue is what has taken his career from sure fire HOFer to average MLB RFer in 1 season, he will be back on the path to sure fire HOFer next season, correct?  How is the wager stupid?

[NavinRJohnson]

You really need to learn to read...actually nevermind. It is clear that you intentionally misinterpret, misstate, etc. To help support your ridiculous arguments and conspiracy theories. Interesting to see the exact same thing happening over in the NFL thread about Jay Cutler. No longer worth my time.

Since you can't answer, I'll just go ahead and assume that you do in fact believe that Braun is having unnecessary surgery to fix what you claim is a fake/non-existent thumb issue. Makes all the sense in the world.

[4everwarriors]

Y'all don't think the PED use has directly resulted in the thumb injury, do y'all?

[NavinRJohnson]

Y'all don't think the PED use has directly resulted in the thumb injury, do y'all?

What thumb injury? Wades says its all a charade.

[4everwarriors]

Nah, Braun's thumb is fooked up. But, not to the extent that he butt fooked the Brewers. I wonder if they can recover from the financial beat down he laid on them. Peddle his heine for just about anything a team throws your way, hey?

[wadesworld]

You really need to learn to read...actually nevermind. It is clear that you intentionally misinterpret, misstate, etc. To help support your ridiculous arguments and conspiracy theories. Interesting to see the exact same thing happening over in the NFL thread about Jay Cutler. No longer worth my time.

Since you can't answer, I'll just go ahead and assume that you do in fact believe that Braun is having unnecessary surgery to fix what you claim is a fake/non-existent thumb issue. Makes all the sense in the world.

Sure, unnecessary surgery.

Your turn to answer my questions.

If he stinks again next year then the surgery just didn't work?

Has Braun been battling this injury for the past few years, or is it just this year?  If it was the past few years, why was he still able to produce and this year he couldn't?

Why are they going to go through with this surgery if it's not going to help him?



I'm just going to accept that you won't take my wager and call it "stupid."  Why?  I'm not sure.  Braun says he's confident it will fix the problem.  If it fixes the problem then he'll be back to .320, 40, 120 in no time.  But to you, when next season he isn't back to that (lack of PEDs will do that), it's just that the thumb surgery didn't work and his thumb injury is giving him problems, despite him having problems and still putting up numbers before being suspended for PEDs.  The timing of it all worsening to the point that it finally causes his numbers to dip is just a big coincidence.

[wadesworld]

Nah, Braun's thumb is fooked up. But, not to the extent that he butt fooked the Brewers. I wonder if they can recover from the financial beat down he laid on them. Peddle his heine for just about anything a team throws your way, hey?

Nobody's going to take a $20 million .270 right fielder.

Thankfully there's a surgery Braun willingly chose to not have with an extra half of a season to sit out because he was suspended for PED use (which didn't affect his play at all), so he willingly just let his numbers slip up, but now Braun is confident that this surgery will fix the issue so he'll do the surgery with less time to recover.  So we'll be seeing him hitting .320 with 40 homers and 120 RBIs.  Not sure why Navin won't accept my bet.  It's easy money.  The thumb will be fixed and that's the only issue Braun has and the only reason we have seen his numbers dip from can't miss Hall of Famer, one of the best all time, to .270 hitter.  Fix the thumb and we have a hall of famer back on our hands.

[NavinRJohnson]

Nah, Braun's thumb is fooked up. But, not to the extent that he butt fooked the Brewers. I wonder if they can recover from the financial beat down he laid on them. Peddle his heine for just about anything a team throws your way, hey?

Eh... I think he's untradeable at this point. Injured and expensive with baggage. I personally think that surgery or no surgery,  there is a good chance the thumb thing may seriously impact/shorten his career, based on what I've seen (unlike some who want to over simplifying and try to pretend that sports come with guarantees), further worsening the financial impact on the Brewers. They need to seriously hope that surgery works.

[Benny B]

Brewers will win 94 games if Garza stays healthy all year.  For every three days he's on the DL, subtract one win.

Help me out here, guys.... I'm looking for someone whose preseason prediction was better than 83-2/3 wins for the Brewers.

[wadesworld]

Eh... I think he's untradeable at this point. Injured and expensive with baggage. I personally think that surgery or no surgery,  there is a good chance the thumb thing may seriously impact/shorten his career, based on what I've seen (unlike some who want to over simplifying and try to pretend that sports come with guarantees), further worsening the financial impact on the Brewers. They need to seriously hope that surgery works.

I guess I'd maybe believe this if you could find me just one example of a good MLB player whose career was ruined by a thumb injury.

[MUDPT]

I guess I'd maybe believe this if you could find me just one example of a good MLB player whose career was ruined by a thumb injury.

I'm not sure what you mean by this.  It's important to note that every injury is different.  Who knows, Braun could have had a hammer slip last offseason and injured his thumb then. 

[Aughnanure]

LOL.

Of *course* that is what a New York newspaper would do.  Make up some sort of metric that makes Jeter look good and rank them accordingly...but make sure that Honus Wagner is ranked first in order to not look like complete homers.

There are two major problems with this.  The first, and the most significant, is that the only portion of the metric that touches on defense at all is WAR.  The rest are all offensive categories.  Second, is that there is an overlap between these categories.  Why use batting average AND on-base percentage?  Why use home runs but not slugging percentage?  And stolen bases?  Cmon...

Jeter ranks about 7th all time in WAR for the shortstop position.  (That is if you classify Yount as a SS and use his career stats.)  That's about right.  A sure fire Hall of Famer.  BTW, he will be the only SS in the HOF with a negative defensive WAR.

Couldn't believe how low Ernie Banks and Ripken were ranked.

[Aughnanure]

Can't argue with this

http://www.clickhole.com/blogpost/derek-jeter-will-go-down-one-best-500-players-all--1072

[MU82]

I'm not sure what you mean by this.  It's important to note that every injury is different.  Who knows, Braun could have had a hammer slip last offseason and injured his thumb then. 

I'm not a conspiracy theorist and I wouldn't be surprised if Braun had a thumb injury that affected his performance this season. However ...

When you are a pathological liar who has proven you will say or do anything to protect your image and your agenda, you shouldn't expect to be believed about anything ever again.

Three years ago, if you asked me to describe what Ryan Braun is, I'd have said: "One of the elite ballplayers in the world."

Now: "A lying douchebag."

[GGGG]

Except its not just Braun that is talking about his thumb injury.  Its the Brewers organization too.

I mean either he is having surgery to correct a problem that impacts his ability to perform...OR he is having unnecessary surgery. 

Now if his thumb is fine next year, and he still puts up numbers similar to this year, then people like Wade's can beat their chest.  Otherwise they simply sound a little looney.

[wadesworld]

I'm not a conspiracy theorist and I wouldn't be surprised if Braun had a thumb injury that affected his performance this season. However ...

When you are a pathological liar who has proven you will say or do anything to protect your image and your agenda, you shouldn't expect to be believed about anything ever again.

Three years ago, if you asked me to describe what Ryan Braun is, I'd have said: "One of the elite ballplayers in the world."

Now: "A lying douchebag."

Well put.

Except its not just Braun that is talking about his thumb injury.  Its the Brewers organization too.

I mean either he is having surgery to correct a problem that impacts his ability to perform...OR he is having unnecessary surgery. 

Now if his thumb is fine next year, and he still puts up numbers similar to this year, then people like Wade's can beat their chest.  Otherwise they simply sound a little looney.

That's my point and that's why I'm offering the wager to Navin.  He's having this surgery to fix what apparently has been his problem since being forced to no longer use PEDs for the first time in his career/since early in his days at Miami.  If it's the thumb that is the problem and not the lack of PED use, then he will be back to a .320, 40 homer, 120 RBI hitter in no time (aka, to start next season).  I'm not sure why anybody wouldn't take that bet if there is no chance that PED use inflated his numbers (like I suggest) and now that he is off them his numbers have dropped.  It's just a conveniently timed thumb injury that will take him from one of the best players ever (the path he was on) to a below average RF, at the age of 30 years old.  Because thumb injuries typically do that to baseball players.

And yes, no professional sports organization would lie to save the face of a "star" player.  The Baltimore Ravens certainly wouldn't.  The Brewers have no reason to make excuses for the guy whose $20 million/year contract extension is set to kick in after 1 more season following his .270, 20 homer season.  What professional sports organization would have a star say, as he struggles throughout the season, "It's my thumb injury, it's really bothering me," and respond with, "Braun has no thumb injury."

If people really think that Braun's thumb is the reason he dropped from .320/40/120 to .270/20/95, then I will put the wager out there for any Scooper (since Navin, for whatever reason, won't take the wager).  Braun is now having this surgery (not sure why he wouldn't have had it last year if this thumb injury has been going on for years and he had a half of a season extra to recover since he was suspended, but whatever) that is going to fix the issue he had that caused him to be below average in RF this year.  If that's the case, then he should be back on his Hall of Fame path.  So I offer the wager.  If Braun hits .310+, 30 homers+, and 110 RBI+ (he was easily doing this up until he got caught doing PEDs, but apparently that isn't his problem, it's the thumb issue, which he is apparently having fixed), then I will pay $X to a charity of the Scooper's choice.  If he hits below .285/25/110 then the Scooper will pay $X to a charity of my choice.  Pick the charity and the price and let's make this wager.

[CTWarrior]

I have no horse in this race, but a few comments:

1 - Exhaustive studies indicate that players generally peak around age 27.  The better the player, the slower the decline, but you can generally expect deterioration of numbers around that point.  Braun will be 31 next year, so naturally his numbers would be decreasing anyway.  Also, injuries tend to increase the speed of the decline. 

2 - Since QuesTec's implementation, the strike zone, particularly the lower region of the strike zone, has undoubtedly gotten bigger.  I believe that to be the biggest cause (along with increased use of bullpens and increased velocity of bullpen pitchers) of declining offensive numbers all over baseball.

3- Braun hit 40 homers only once in his career, and averaged 34 HRs during his first 6 seasons.  Also, RBI are also a function of men on base in front of him, which is largely out of his control.

4 - Braun could still cheat and not get caught.  I think cheating is certainly down, but I also think that most of the cheaters don't get caught.

So rather than focus on batting average, home runs and RBI, your bet should be based on OPS+ (Braun's performance vs. the rest of the league adjusted for environment).  Braun, throughout his career has varied OPS+ from 130 (2008) to 166 (his age 27 season).  He's at 143 for his career.  You should agree on an OPS+ number (I'd suggest around 130) and base your bet on that.

Besides, based on your original proposition, who wins if Braun hit .265/35/115?

[wadesworld]

I have no horse in this race, but a few comments:

1 - Exhaustive studies indicate that players generally peak around age 27.  The better the player, the slower the decline, but you can generally expect deterioration of numbers around that point.  Braun will be 31 next year, so naturally his numbers would be decreasing anyway.  Also, injuries tend to increase the speed of the decline.  

2 - Since QuesTec's implementation, the strike zone, particularly the lower region of the strike zone, has undoubtedly gotten bigger.  I believe that to be the biggest cause (along with increased use of bullpens and increased velocity of bullpen pitchers) of declining offensive numbers all over baseball.

3- Braun hit 40 homers only once in his career, and averaged 34 HRs during his first 6 seasons.  Also, RBI are also a function of men on base in front of him, which is largely out of his control.

4 - Braun could still cheat and not get caught.  I think cheating is certainly down, but I also think that most of the cheaters don't get caught.

So rather than focus on batting average, home runs and RBI, your bet should be based on OPS+ (Braun's performance vs. the rest of the league adjusted for environment).  Braun, throughout his career has varied OPS+ from 130 (2008) to 166 (his age 27 season).  He's at 143 for his career.  You should agree on an OPS+ number (I'd suggest around 130) and base your bet on that.

Besides, based on your original proposition, who wins if Braun hit .265/35/115?

1) Fair enough.  I cannot argue with that.  If a guy of Braun's caliber can go from the numbers he had in 2011 and 2012 to the numbers he had in 2014 because of age and a thumb injury then so be it.

2) Braun has been playing with the strike zone his whole career.  When you are talking about overall offensive numbers in baseball this argument might make some sense.  When you are talking about an individual player who has proven he can put up big numbers with this strike zone it doesn't have anything to do with the argument.  There hasn't been some drastic change to how baseball is played during Braun's career.  The strike zone may have been smaller for Babe Ruth than it is for Ryan Braun and given Ruth an advantage, but Braun has proven he can put up big numbers with the strike zone Braun sees.  It didn't go from a small strike zone to a giant strike zone or shift from high to low within Braun's career.

3) That's why I set it at 30 homers.  Well below what he averaged through the 2012 season.  Braun averaged 34 in his first 6 seasons, but that includes his first season in which he wasn't even in the MLB to start the year.  He hit 34 that year in 113 games.  If he were in the majors the entire season and hit at that pace (no reason to think he wouldn't have) all year, that's another 40 homer season and increases his average to over 35 up through the 2012 season.  He only hit below 30 in 1 of his first 6 seasons.  Considering that, I think 30 is fairly generous.  He hit 19 this year.

4) Braun cannot cheat again because he is facing a lifetime ban if he is caught again.  I know the guy is incredibly unintelligent (anybody who comes out and gives the press conference he did after getting caught originally cannot be smart), but even he is smart enough to understand that risking $20 million/year just to increase his numbers again isn't worth it.  He's getting paid whether he hits .320 and 40 or .270 and 20.

Fair enough on the wager.  BA/HR/RBI, OPS, Slugging, OPS+.  I don't care.  Braun is not nearly as good of a baseball player when he is not on PEDs as he was when he was on PEDs.  Some here seem to think it's this thumb injury that conveniently popped up when he stopped using PEDs.  Well, the thumb is being fixed, so we should see similar production from him again (and I took into account a decline for age, hence the 30 homers instead of 35, etc.).

[CTWarrior]

Ellenson's World, I don't think you're wrong, because I don't know.  I have no idea the extent of help PEDs gave Braun.  PEDs certainly help or people wouldn't risk bans to take them.  Just offering my two cents to make the bet fair.