Zone Diet

[Dr. Blackheart]

Match-ups are a key element of college basketball success.  Many others justifiably argue that college hoops is a guard’s game, and MU’s success this year has shown that, especially in the strength of MU’s transition game.  Others, like myself, argue that you need effective bigs to move on to the next level, as they can change the dimension of match-ups or cover up weaknesses as ultimately close or road games come down to half court match-ups. 

With injuries, MU is a considerably smaller team.  In fact, MU is now smaller in Pomeroy’s “Average Height” measure than every team they have played this season except Rutgers and Jacksonville.  In particular, MU has struggled or lost to some of the tallest teams in the nation.  Norfolk State at #22, Washington at #7, Villanova at #10, Vanderbilt at #9, Georgetown at #5, Syracuse at #3 and Notre Dame at #27.  LSU, while and average height team overall because of smaller guards, has the #16 “Effective Height “ team in the land with their tall frontline.  Cincinnati is an average height team, but Gates and Jackson were very tough in the paint last night. Ole Miss at #8 was the only tall team MU did not struggle against as that game became a track meet to MU’s advantage.

Delving a little deeper into MU’s losses, there were a few things in common beyond height disadvantages.  One, all but the Vanderbilt game were away from the Bradley Center.  And, two, for all or considerable key stretches, the opposing teams went to a zone against Marquette to utilize their height and athleticism vs. MU’s quickness via dribble penetration and ball movement.

This second point is seen in the statistics when I dug a bit deeper.  In MU wins, the team’s Assist to Turnover ratio is 1.46:1.  In losses, the A:TO ratio is 0.96:1 against the zones.  MU’s guards have had their worst games in these losses.  Further, in the first Norfolk State game, the ratio was 2:1 when they played man. In game two, after NSU switched to a zone in the 2nd half, and the ratio was 1:07 to 1. 

Does MU miss Otule on the defensive end and Gardner on the offensive?  Yes, as both give Marquette options to win close games when MU’s motion offense is restricted by unfavorable match ups.  More so, they give the offense more spacing options to free up dribble and passing lanes against the zone.  On thing you may have notices last night was how Cronin had his team overplay key entry and receiving points into the paint with his zone design last night.  Also, he was intent on slow MU down in the back court via the inbounds pass (either having a player knock the ball away after a made bucket or leaving a guard lingering on the in-bounds where our guards like to receive it to start their runs up). 

Yes, Marquette will see a lot of zone upcoming.  MU needs to be prepared to eat it up.

[Windyplayer]

Appreciate the post. Very thorough. It's going to come down to Cadougan's drive-and-kick. He seemed a little shaky taking it in the lane last night, but he's gone through stretches where he's as cool as a cucumber among the trees. Also, it would help if DJO could get to the tin a little more often than he has been lately.

[GGGG]

We have generally been carving up zones most of the year.  (Louisville for example.)  But I didn't recall that Georgetown played zone.  Am I just forgetting that?

[MarquetteDano]

I know it wasn't the point of the original post but the "guard's game" term was bandied about again.

The reason why "guard's game" is said about college basketball is because a team can get to the NCAA's with a G-G-G-G-C lineup.  It happens every single year.  It is extremely rare to see a G-F-F-C-C lineup win in college basketball.

To win it all you need guards, fowards, and centers.  However you can get to the Sweet Sixteen with four guards and one big man.  You cannot win with four big men and one guard.

[Dawson Rental]

Your post brings up an important point.  Todd R. when he covered the team always used to say how rare "bigs" are and how only the very biggest programs could land them.  And Buzz has said that its difficult to find bigs who can play. Then why is almost every team that MU plays a bigger team?  Obviously there are bigs out there to be had.  Failure to recruit enough height is in my opinion the only flaw in Buzz's tenure at MU to this point.  Yes, he had Otule and Gardner on the team this year and they are out now which is not his fault, but the lack of sufficient big man depth is. Hopefully, next year's recruiting class with Steve Taylor and Durley will finally get us that.

[MarsupialMadness]

Appreciate the post. Very thorough. It's going to come down to Cadougan's drive-and-kick. He seemed a little shaky taking it in the lane last night, but he's gone through stretches where he's as cool as a cucumber among the trees. Also, it would help if DJO could get to the tin a little more often than he has been lately.

Cadougan is the key to our offense.  We need him to push the ball and do his magician routine everytime down the court or else we will be settling for a closely guarded 3-pointer and hope it falls.  The most success comes when a pick is set for one of the higher defenders in the zone, Cadougan takes that guy off the dribble and has everyone collapse around the free throw line, then find Jae, DJO, Todd, Vander and get a high percentage shot.

I agree, we'll be seeing a lot of zone defense to come.

[Norm]

We have generally been carving up zones most of the year.  (Louisville for example.)  But I didn't recall that Georgetown played zone.  Am I just forgetting that?

If I remember correctly Georgetown went almost all zone after we got the big lead. MU couldn't make a shot in the 2nd part of the 2nd half.

[Dr. Blackheart]

We have generally been carving up zones most of the year.  (Louisville for example.)  But I didn't recall that Georgetown played zone.  Am I just forgetting that?

Marquette stopped getting into the heart of the Georgetown zone off the bounce and the ball movement that created so many open shots earlier fizzled. Everything became individualist, which led to a series of difficult shots taken under pressure or by players out of their comfort zone.

Read more: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/writers/andy_glockner/01/04/five.thoughts.hoyas.golden.eagles/index.html#ixzz1ntmwQcNl

In terms of UL, remember the horrible start in the half court until MU got the transition game going? Live by the sword, die by the sword. In all of MU's losses, the only A:TO ratio game over one was UND (killed by the treys). In all of MU's wins, the only two games less than 1:1 were Ole Miss (track meet) and WVU (1st half suspensions). Junior and DJO have had their worst TO games against zones.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

On thing you may have notices last night was how Cronin had his team overplay key entry and receiving points into the paint with his zone design last night.  Also, he was intent on slow MU down in the back court via the inbounds pass (either having a player knock the ball away after a made bucket or leaving a guard lingering on the in-bounds where our guards like to receive it to start their runs up). 

Yes, Marquette will see a lot of zone upcoming.  MU needs to be prepared to eat it up.

I noticed this too. Can a team continuously do this throughout a game without penalty?

[MarsupialMadness]

I noticed this too. Can a team continuously do this throughout a game without penalty?

This also happened in the UConn game.  UConn received a delay of game, but there was no penalty.  I'm thinking another delay of game would have resulted in a technical foul.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

It should have been a T last night then. There were a few times Cinci knocked the ball out of play all the way up by the scorers table.

[BrewCity83]

Junior did have too many turnovers last night, but a lot of our problems came when Junior penetrated the lane, the D collapsed on him and he dumped it off to an open man on the right baseline.  Normally, this results in an easy layup or draws a foul, but last night these almost all ended with their big guys blocking the shot.

[CTWarrior]

I noticed this too. Can a team continuously do this throughout a game without penalty?

I remember in our game at Tennessee a few years back Tennessee grabbed the ball out of the cylinder and flipped it to the ref after every single basket and nothing happened.  It infuriated me at the time which is why I still remember it.  I'm pretty sure there is supposed to be a warning then a technical but it depends on the refs.

[MarsupialMadness]

It should have been a T last night then. There were a few times Cinci knocked the ball out of play all the way up by the scorers table.

They were definitely doing it on purpose.  BS.

[seakm4]

I said this a while back that we struggle against a zone and was served a huge facial by a scooper saying we didn't struggle against Syracuse in the tourney last year, and I'm glad a numbers guy was able to back me up even if it is 2 months too late to rub it in that person's face.  Appreciate the post

[Dr. Blackheart]

Thought MU had a great gameplan against the zone vs. Gtown with some great adjustments.  First, flashing Jamil in the wide post, then swinging him up top for spacing as his big man followed him.  This allowed Jae to establish space at the free throw line to receive the ball and then dribble down the box line to break down the zone.  DJO was very patient with the dribble penetration on the bounce, with a slight feign and go to the hoop vs.head down to the hole.  Gardner then came in to add spacing and focus which created more options.  In all 45 free throws off of 29 fouls called. 

More so, the press was fantastic.  Jamil's wingspan was causing all sorts of trouble allowing Vander, Jae and Todd room to play free safety with steals at the half court.  11 steals fed the transition game and really set the tone.  MU has to have one of the top transition games in the nation. 

[Dr. Blackheart]

Some don't want to hear it...some don't want to say it.  But, this is, for better or worsre, the make-up of this team, and match-ups determine outcomes of post-season games.   UL starts and plays zone most of the 1st half and MU guards turn it over like a popcorm machine.  Tall athletic teams who play 2-3 ZONE BEAT MU, not because of coaching or bad play but because of MATCH-UPS.  

Some claim MU has improved their defense and the way Buzz plays it is without flaws.  MU's defense is 305 in defensive Offensive Rebounding rate per KPom.  Fact is, at the end of the day, MU is a great team in transition....but an average team in the half court:  On days like today, MU dies by the sword.

Been through this wringing machine before, but if you cannot play half court, you don't advance.  Crucify me, depants me, ban me....but until a Buzz team can play a half court game, they will not go deep.  And, guys and gals, Buzz knows very well, until you all jump on me.  It is all about match-ups...and I said it before tonight's debacle.

On the other hand, MU is a  near impossible of a match-up for 95% of the NCAA teams.  UL was the only team in the BET who scared me going into our bracket.  MU could have won the BE otherwise.

[Norm]

Yep, of the top 4 seeds, Marquette definitely had the toughest opponent to play today. Heck, most NCAA projections only have a one seed difference between MU and UL. Tough loss, especially they way MU turned the ball over. I feared that Louisville would come to play and that their athleticism, size and speed would beat MU. Unfortunately, those fears came true. Now I just pray we don't have a similar match-up problem in the first weekend of the NCAA tournament.