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Author Topic: Canadian Dimes Season Preview  (Read 8775 times)

Dr. Blackheart

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Canadian Dimes Season Preview
« on: September 27, 2011, 08:57:55 PM »
No, not the poster but his namesake, Junior Cadougan. Junior was a RSCI rated #47 PG coming in the Class of 2009.  After a injury shortened freshman year, he dominated the Summer Pro-Am a year ago, but was shaking the rust off last season, with his polish finally coming through at the end of the season. He then again dominated the Pro-Am this summer.

So, what can we expect in 2011-12 and why is he so critical?  Simply put, Junior is the key to the season as he has the balanced inside-out lineup that he will thrive in as he peaks into a uber level PG. Crucial will be his his outside shot development to the point where he can be considered somewhat of a threat. Here is why I think he will star, based on last year's partitioned stat highlights:

  • MU really didn't have a PG who controlled the games last season. Dwight Buycks was a SG playing out of position. He did an admirable job as Junior got his groove back. However, he led the team in turnovers in 7 out of the 10 highest turnover games. DB was just inconsistent and hurt us in key moments of close games more than he helped us.
  • Junior on the other hand, played only 19.8 minutes per game, starting only five.
  • As a result, I looked at assist rate to level set him so we can look out into this season when he will get more minutes.
  • Junior had the six highest assist rate games last season
  • He also owned 10 out of the top 20 assist % games
  • Of these ten, nine were against BE or NCAA teams.  Seven of these games were away from home games..
« Last Edit: September 27, 2011, 08:59:46 PM by Dr. Blackheart »

4everwarriors

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Re: Canadian Dimes Season Preview
« Reply #1 on: September 27, 2011, 09:12:43 PM »
Now, can you give us the F*ckin' season preview?
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Wade for President

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Re: Canadian Dimes Season Preview
« Reply #2 on: September 28, 2011, 04:42:39 AM »
I love Junior, and I think that's why reading something like this upsets me.  Everytime I read that Junior is a junior, I get so upset that he didn't redshirt his entire Freshman year.

I realize you can't change the past, but what did those 5+ games he played, do for the team/his development.  For someone that more than likely doesn't have an NBA career in his future, why would you be so pressed to get through college?

I know he's a warrior and wanted to get back to help his team in anyway possible, but at what cost?

brewcity77

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Re: Canadian Dimes Season Preview
« Reply #3 on: September 28, 2011, 05:42:30 AM »
I love Junior, and I think that's why reading something like this upsets me.  Everytime I read that Junior is a junior, I get so upset that he didn't redshirt his entire Freshman year.

I realize you can't change the past, but what did those 5+ games he played, do for the team/his development.  For someone that more than likely doesn't have an NBA career in his future, why would you be so pressed to get through college?

I know he's a warrior and wanted to get back to help his team in anyway possible, but at what cost?

Honestly, I think at the time it was about depth. Before Junior came back, we didn't have enough guys to run 5-on-5 in practice that year. And I think with March beckoning, Buzz wanted to make sure he had personnel. In retrospect, it may have been a mistake, but it's also really not worrying about anymore. What's done is done.
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downtown85

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Re: Canadian Dimes Season Preview
« Reply #4 on: September 28, 2011, 06:55:55 AM »
No, not the poster but his namesake, Junior Cadougan. Junior was a RSCI rated #47 PG coming in the Class of 2009.  After a injury shortened freshman year, he dominated the Summer Pro-Am a year ago, but was shaking the rust off last season, with his polish finally coming through at the end of the season. He then again dominated the Pro-Am this summer.

So, what can we expect in 2011-12 and why is he so critical?  Simply put, Junior is the key to the season as he has the balanced inside-out lineup that he will thrive in as he peaks into a uber level PG. Crucial will be his his outside shot development to the point where he can be considered somewhat of a threat. Here is why I think he will star, based on last year's partitioned stat highlights:

  • MU really didn't have a PG who controlled the games last season. Dwight Buycks was a SG playing out of position. He did an admirable job as Junior got his groove back. However, he led the team in turnovers in 7 out of the 10 highest turnover games. DB was just inconsistent and hurt us in key moments of close games more than he helped us.
  • Junior on the other hand, played only 19.8 minutes per game, starting only five.
  • As a result, I looked at assist rate to level set him so we can look out into this season when he will get more minutes.
  • Junior had the six highest assist rate games last season
  • He also owned 10 out of the top 20 assist % games
  • Of these ten, nine were against BE or NCAA teams.  Seven of these games were away from home games..

How about a guess at MPG, PPG, APG, TOPG?  Here is mine:  31, 10.5, 5.5, 2.2. 

MUMac

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Re: Canadian Dimes Season Preview
« Reply #5 on: September 28, 2011, 07:17:09 AM »
I love Junior, and I think that's why reading something like this upsets me.  Everytime I read that Junior is a junior, I get so upset that he didn't redshirt his entire Freshman year.

I realize you can't change the past, but what did those 5+ games he played, do for the team/his development.  For someone that more than likely doesn't have an NBA career in his future, why would you be so pressed to get through college?

I know he's a warrior and wanted to get back to help his team in anyway possible, but at what cost?

Are you sure he wanted to be in school for 5 years?

Hards Alumni

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Re: Canadian Dimes Season Preview
« Reply #6 on: September 28, 2011, 07:22:53 AM »
How about a guess at MPG, PPG, APG, TOPG?  Here is mine:  31, 10.5, 5.5, 2.2. 

I'd agree with everything but his PPG.  I'd mark it somewhere around 7.5.

MUMac

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Re: Canadian Dimes Season Preview
« Reply #7 on: September 28, 2011, 07:40:11 AM »
I'd agree with everything but his PPG.  I'd mark it somewhere around 7.5.

I would be very happy with 7.5 PPG from Junior.  10.5 seems high, based on the scoring that MU will have elsewhere.  He needs to score enough to keep defenses honest, through penetration and the perimeter.  But it is his penetration and passing that will be the difference. 

I agree with the OP comment on the outside shot.  If he could develop an adequate 3 point shot, he could make us even more dangerous.  Doesn't need to take them all the time, but when open, take and hit.  That will cause defenses to respect him more from the outside.

Dr. Blackheart

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Re: Canadian Dimes Season Preview
« Reply #8 on: September 28, 2011, 07:42:16 AM »
How about a guess at MPG, PPG, APG, TOPG?  Here is mine:  31, 10.5, 5.5, 2.2. 

I think 32, 7.5, 6.7, 2.2.  Diener's senior year, he averaged 7 assists per game.  He was at 6 APG his junior year.  TD was a better scorer and I think JC is a better distributor.  

I also think JC has a better scoring supporting cast all around than Travis his junior and senior years (especially). Some of Junior's best games also saw some of the highest scoring games from our bigs, and DJO and Jae became better scorers off the catch and shoot set up by JC.  That said, Crean's offense never took the ball out of TD's hands for most of the shot clock.

As to his freshman year, perhaps the struggle back made him a better player, more determined.  He is in much better shape, improved his quickness, and also his hops.  With a loss in quickness on his initial return, his shot was exposed, and it became clear that he needed extensive work on his J, which he has done--not that he will ever be TD good. Perhaps the struggle will be a blessing?
 
I think the first game we will immediately see the impact of having a true 100% able and ready PG with this talent.  It will be a special year.

tower912

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Re: Canadian Dimes Season Preview
« Reply #9 on: September 28, 2011, 08:13:10 AM »
A healthy, productive Junior is the key to our season.    I never realized how much I took good PG play for granted until last year.    DB did his best playing out of position, but we frequently looked like one of our awkward Crean teams with little movement or ball reversal.   Junior did not always improve things, as it still looked like he was deferring leadership responsibilities.    This is the year he takes ownership.  If he plays 30+ mpg, this will be a very good team.
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bilsu

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Re: Canadian Dimes Season Preview
« Reply #10 on: September 28, 2011, 08:44:23 AM »
TD was a better scorer and I think JC is a better distributor.  


Travis was a much better passer than you are giving him credit for. He was good at passing the ball ahead to get up court and he was good at the alley oop pass. Remember he was good enough to actually play in the NBA, where he was physically overmatched. He did not need to drive inside, because he could shoot from outside.
« Last Edit: September 28, 2011, 10:15:50 AM by bilsu »

APieperFan3

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Re: Canadian Dimes Season Preview
« Reply #11 on: September 28, 2011, 09:02:49 AM »
Travis was a much better passer than you are giving him credit for. He was good at passing the ball ahead to get up court and he was good at the alley oop pass. Remember he was good enough to actually play in the NBA, where he was physically overmatched. He did not need to drivre inside, because he could shoot from outside.

Bilsu- I can remember quite a few of Travis' half-court+ passes after getting a quick outlet pass...definately takes some talent.

If we want to get really in depth, are we really comparing apples to apples?

Cadougan 'creates' (mostly) off of his drive/dish and ability to use his body and finish at the hoop.

Travis 'created' for guys (mostly) because of the way he shot the basketball.
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Henry Sugar

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Re: Canadian Dimes Season Preview
« Reply #12 on: September 28, 2011, 09:18:59 AM »
quality post (of course from the Dr) and a good discussion topic.

Counterpoint - Cadougan had an ORtg of 94 and a turnover rate of almost 30% last year.  Even down the stretch, he had multiple games of three turnovers (in limited minutes).  In addition, I personally feel assists are overvalued as a statistic, primarily because there is a lot of subjectivity around the determination of an assist.

Having said both those things, in some of the bigger games down the stretch, Cadougan played a very strong role.  
15 points on 4-7 and one turnover vs WVU
9 points on 3-6 and one turnover vs Syracuse

I do believe his turnovers will be reduced this year and his shooting percentages will improve.  However, he'll need to make significant improvement in both areas to become an average point guard... let alone a special or elite PG.  It might be a bit early to predict a special season out of him, but I do agree with the Dr's recommendation to "buy low".
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Lennys Tap

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Re: Canadian Dimes Season Preview
« Reply #13 on: September 28, 2011, 09:30:40 AM »
Where Travis most excelled (shooting), Junior is lacking. Cadougan's greatest strength (passing in traffic or finishing) was Diener's achilles heel. Neither are/were perfect, but Travis was great and I think Junior will be.

bilsu

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Re: Canadian Dimes Season Preview
« Reply #14 on: September 28, 2011, 10:24:13 AM »
I love Junior, and I think that's why reading something like this upsets me.  Everytime I read that Junior is a junior, I get so upset that he didn't redshirt his entire Freshman year.

I realize you can't change the past, but what did those 5+ games he played, do for the team/his development.  For someone that more than likely doesn't have an NBA career in his future, why would you be so pressed to get through college?

I know he's a warrior and wanted to get back to help his team in anyway possible, but at what cost?
I felt the same way about Otule and Mbakwe not redshirting. Otule got hurt again and then used his redshirt year. Mbakwe transferred out so it did not matter. No one knows the future. Some players work hard and comeback from an injury. Some work hard and get reinjured. Some just do not put in the effort. I not sure, if Fulce could of redshirted, but if he had, he physically may not have been able to play another year.

bilsu

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Re: Canadian Dimes Season Preview
« Reply #15 on: September 28, 2011, 10:38:39 AM »
I believe a good player improves as the season progresses and that is what Junior did and I feel very good about him continuing to progress. I expect him to be better in March 2012 than he will be in November 2011. The key to the season might be how much better Blue, Jones and J. Wilson are in March 2012 compared to November 2011. I think Junior, Crowder, DJO, Gardner and Otule have shown the ability to improve as the season progresses.

Canadian Dimes

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Re: Canadian Dimes Season Preview
« Reply #16 on: September 28, 2011, 12:27:19 PM »
Based on the title should I be waiting on a royalties check any time soon?

I,too, look forward to a good season from Junior and pretty much agree with everything in the post with one exception...."DB was just inconsistent and hurt us in key moments of close games more than he helped us."

not so sure about that...yes he made some mistakes while playing out of position.  But, one must ask where would we have been last year without DB?  HE was huge at times last year, heck as late as the Xavier game where Junior was very bad, and DB was really really good, and played all the big minutes and made big play after big play.

bilsu

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Re: Canadian Dimes Season Preview
« Reply #17 on: September 28, 2011, 12:52:47 PM »
Based on the title should I be waiting on a royalties check any time soon?

I,too, look forward to a good season from Junior and pretty much agree with everything in the post with one exception...."DB was just inconsistent and hurt us in key moments of close games more than he helped us."

not so sure about that...yes he made some mistakes while playing out of position.  But, one must ask where would we have been last year without DB?  HE was huge at times last year, heck as late as the Xavier game where Junior was very bad, and DB was really really good, and played all the big minutes and made big play after big play.
I do think Buycks overall was a positive last year. People should also realize as they talk up Cadougan that he could not beat Buycks out last year. Heck, even Smith started ahead of him when Buyckes was hurt. I think Cadougan is going to have a good year, but who would start if Buycks had another year of eligiblity?

Canned Goods n Ammo

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Re: Canadian Dimes Season Preview
« Reply #18 on: September 28, 2011, 01:36:55 PM »
Junior has shown some flashes.

He just has to play better in longer stretches.

If Junior and Blue can shoot close to 30% from 3pt, this team will have no problems scoring the ball.






Canadian Dimes

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Re: Canadian Dimes Season Preview
« Reply #19 on: September 28, 2011, 01:37:03 PM »
I do think Buycks overall was a positive last year. People should also realize as they talk up Cadougan that he could not beat Buycks out last year. Heck, even Smith started ahead of him when Buyckes was hurt. I think Cadougan is going to have a good year, but who would start if Buycks had another year of eligiblity?

I think Junior would, despite what I said earlier.  Last year, at least for the most part and assuredly in the beginning, DB was the best PG on the team.  As the season wore on Junior had good games and DB had good games, Buzz would play the hot hand.  

However, at the end of the day DB was a 2G, with limited upside at the PG.  i think Juniors celing at the PG is higher, and i hope and believe he will continue to elevate his game over the next two years.  Just my opinion

Benny B

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Re: Canadian Dimes Season Preview
« Reply #20 on: September 28, 2011, 02:11:23 PM »
Where Travis most excelled (shooting), Junior is lacking. Cadougan's greatest strength (passing in traffic or finishing) was Diener's achilles heel. Neither are/were perfect, but Travis was great and I think Junior will be.

So I take it the over/under on "medium-sized fella" assists this year is one?
Wow, I'm very concerned for Benny.  Being able to mimic Myron Medcalf's writing so closely implies an oncoming case of dementia.

Dr. Blackheart

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Re: Canadian Dimes Season Preview
« Reply #21 on: September 28, 2011, 04:06:19 PM »
Based on the title should I be waiting on a royalties check any time soon?

I,too, look forward to a good season from Junior and pretty much agree with everything in the post with one exception...."DB was just inconsistent and hurt us in key moments of close games more than he helped us."

not so sure about that...yes he made some mistakes while playing out of position.  But, one must ask where would we have been last year without DB?  HE was huge at times last year, heck as late as the Xavier game where Junior was very bad, and DB was really really good, and played all the big minutes and made big play after big play.

Topper is sending your check right on over. So, here are the losses that DB led the team in turnovers (three or more):  Nova, SJU, UL (the road collapse not the BET blow-out), UCONN (home), Gonzaga, UND (road), Gtown. Yes, he also did great things and pulled out some big wins in a miscast role.  And yes, Junior had many craptacular games. Not having a true PG performance last year did not help us in close games...and projecting, I think if Junior establishes himself as a difference maker.

In terms of O-rate (Henry's comment), Junior showed promise with games of 136.7 (UNC), 146.1 (Cuse NCAA) and 159.2 (WVU in BET) to end the year.  That is the promise as he was getting starts and his role (and confidence) was expanding. 

karavotsos

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Re: Canadian Dimes Season Preview
« Reply #22 on: September 28, 2011, 11:40:21 PM »
Excited to see Jr. offensively this year.  I agree 3-pt % has to be up above 30% on not a great number of attempts.  I would say its on defense he's got to show.  If MU wants to extend, Jr. has to either be on the point or be focused enough off the ball not to get beat.  One of MU's strengths could be its length, athleticism and ability to bother teams defensively.  Jr. has to help rather than be a weak link.  Of course I think he can.  Especially with 2's like DJO and Blue who can switch and pressure point if need be.

77ncaachamps

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Re: Canadian Dimes Season Preview
« Reply #23 on: September 29, 2011, 12:28:00 AM »
I too am excited to see Junior's potential offensive output this season. But if his remarks are any indication, we may also witness the growth of another baby Warrior: Jamail Jones.
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bilsu

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Re: Canadian Dimes Season Preview
« Reply #24 on: September 29, 2011, 08:55:22 AM »
Excited to see Jr. offensively this year.  I agree 3-pt % has to be up above 30% on not a great number of attempts.  I would say its on defense he's got to show.  If MU wants to extend, Jr. has to either be on the point or be focused enough off the ball not to get beat.  One of MU's strengths could be its length, athleticism and ability to bother teams defensively.  Jr. has to help rather than be a weak link.  Of course I think he can.  Especially with 2's like DJO and Blue who can switch and pressure point if need be.
I was happy with Cadougan's defense last year. He really made an effort on defense and I felt he was effective. Cadougan does not appear to be the quickest player, but he really did a great job of staying in front of his player. He also does not look like the best ballhandler, but rarely had the ball stolen. More than once, I thought how did he get away with not turning the ball over. What Cadougan has is mental toughness.