[Cracked Sidewalks] Cadougan card played at Syracuse as MU seeks to win 9 of next 12 to go to NCAA

[CrackedSidewalksSays]

Cadougan card played at Syracuse as MU seeks to win 9 of next 12 to go to NCAA

Written by: jpudner@concentricgrasstops.com (bamamarquettefan1)

Both RealtimeRPI and Pomeroy predict MU will be 19-11 heading into the Big East Tournament.  RealtimeRPI predicts that will be enough to make the tournament as a 12-seed. Linardi still has MU as one of the last four teams out, but with Cincy as one of the last four teams in an MU win at Cincy on February 21 would likely flip us with the Bearcats.

With MU finally facing the “easy” part of the schedule and clearly on the bubble, Buzz played the Cadougan card by giving him his first seven minutes of the season in the toughest venue of the year at Syracuse.  While Cadougan left his first jumper a couple of feet short of the rim and was slow on a couple of defensive plays, he grabbed two rebounds, and would have had three assists except that on one of them Butler was fouled and hit free throws instead of a basket.  He got a run going that could have been the differences except for the referees somehow missing the most obivous goaltend you will see all year.

More important, Cadougan gave MU an 8-man rotation that played at the fastest pace of the year (74 trips down the court) just a few days after playing their slowest game in six years (53 trips against DePaul).

With MU on pace to be so squarely on the bubble, here are the three ways that Cadougan’s surprise return could be the difference and get MU’s ticket punched in March:

1) MU is about to start playing games that will count in the “RECORD IN FINAL 12 GAMES” category as early as Rutgers on Tuesday, so if he is the difference in just one game down the stretch he could help ensure at least a 9-3 mark in the last 12 games even if we lose in the Big East tourney opener;

2) the Selection Committee does consider how good the roster is that will play in the NCAA tourney, so if MU plays better with Cadougan than they did without him, it will be a major boost in the process, and

3) his ability to give MU a true 8-man rotation will allow them to step up the tempo like they did against Syracuse to play to their strengths.

With a 7-man rotation Buzz has been forced to play at one of the slower paces in the country to save the team’s legs, and trying to win a half court game in which our height makes it tough to stop 2-point shots (Syracuse shot 67% 2-pointers at 30 for 45) or opposing offensive rebounds (Syracuse grabbed 42% with 10 of 24) gives MU no margin for error.

However, with Cadougan as part of the 8-man rotation, MU ran Syracuse into the ground while forcing 22 turnovers, and putting up another 10 of 25 performance from 3-point land to stay first in the country at 42.9%, as well as go on an 11-0 run in a 97 second interval that left MU within 70-65 with 1:54 to play.  Only losing by 5 points at Syracuse propelled MU even higher in Pomeroy, as he now ranks MU as the 18th best team in the country, well ahead of the 79th in the RPI.

UConn is virtually the same height as Syracuse this year (12th tallest and 13th tallest teams in the US, respectively), so a similar performance next week against UConn or February 21 at Cincy could give MU the one marquee road win to wrap up a bid with a 20-10 mark, or at least be in position to make a case heading into the Big East tourney at 19-11.  The biggest wrap on MU is having lost seven straight road games, but except for the DePaul debacle, those games include two losses to No. 1 seeds in 2009 (Pitt and Louisville) and four losses this year to teams currently in the Top 11 in the RPI (#1 Syracuse, #6 Nova, #8 WVU and #11 Wisconsin).  It also ignores that we destroyed St. John's on their home court in the Big East tourney.

If MU does finish 19-11 including a win at Cincy or UConn, the three “gimme” wins and a 4-2 mark in the games in which we are slight favorites, then it would project to finish 10-8 in the Big East and in the top half of the conference.  That would leave MU projected to face an 8-10 team in Cincinnati, Notre Dame or Seton Hall in the opening round.  So add to the good record in the final 12 games, allowances for most losses coming before Cadougan completed the potential NCAA roster, and a top half finish in the Big East as one of only two teams (along with Pitt) to record a fifth straight 10-win season, and the resume would be strong.

In short, MU needs to win nine of its last 12 – whether that’s 9-2 in the regular season and a first round Big East tourney loss or 8-3 in the regular season and a first round win over Cincy, ND or SH, to make the tourney.  However, they may need the marquee road win at Cincy or UConn among those nine wins.

This really makes for a lot more exciting regular season than a year when we are just determining whether MU will be a 3-seed or a 7-seed.  These next 12 games are life or death for Lazar, Mo and Cube, and I’m glad Cadougan is there just in case he makes the difference on going 9-3 or better and extending the season.

http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2010/01/cadougan-card-played-at-syracuse-as-mu.html

[Tulsa Warrior]

From Tulsa Warrior:  Best analysis I've seen of the decision to play JC. A couple of assists, getting into the lane and taking a hit and still keeping the offense going -- not bad, for a first time out.  Playing in front of 29,000 fans on the road is about as close to an NCAA Tournament environment as you can get.

JC is driven.  You have seen it with how he has trimmed down and muscled up his body.  I also got the indication that his work as a student hasn't been limited to the classroom.  He has been a student of this team -- how it works and how he can make it work better.  He has the mind set of a coach.  You got an indication of his thought process when he did the color commentary for one of the Marquette games.

[willie warrior]

I doubt that qw will go 9-3 the rest of the way. That is a tall order, and we are not tall. An 8 man rotation is nice, but 5 or 6 of that are Guard types.

We do not have the needed presence down low, and playing Acker and Cubi together for 25 plus minutes a game is a huge liability to us.

[ATWizJr]

gimme wins?  see depaul.

[ecompt]

right, wiz. We could very easily go into St. John's and Seton Hall and get beat. I don''t see us beating UConn or Pitt, so 9-3 is going to be very tough. The DePaul loss may be the one that eliminates us.

[PuertoRicanNightmare]

Both St. John's and Seton Hall have looked great in spurts...St. John's looked great for the first 15 minutes of their game vs. Villanova yesterday.

[ecompt]

Seton Hall looked very good against Pitt today too. The more I see this league I think we really are the 12th-best team.

[NavinRJohnson]

Point 2 is the key...if we get better with him, it creates a little margin for error (presumably errors that have already taken place).

[groove]

12th place teams don't make the tourney.

[bamamarquettefan]

all great comments.  willie warrior agree that 9-3 would be tough and I'm not predicting it, just saying that's what I think we need for NCAA.  Agree with ecompt that we could easily lose at SJU and SH, and that UConn is very tough. I am actually more worred about Lville at home and Cincy on road than Pitt, but certaily it's possible that with all those and an opening round loss in Big East we could even close 5-7 so 12th place is possible and groove is obviously right that 12th place doesn't make the tourney, and maybe not even the NIT.  However, 9-3 is possible and it's what we need, so I think we are playing with all the pressure of the playoffs right now - another unexpected loss kills us and we will need to pull out a couple of close ones.  ATWizJR you are right no game is truly a gimme, but if we don't go 3-0 in these we have no business even talking about NCAA.  As I noted, DePaul was the worst team we've lost to since Houston in 2000, and I believe Pomeroy gave us an 83% chance of winning that game and it took a combination of playing terrible and some bad bounces to lose by one.  He gives us a 97% chance against Rutgers and DePaul at the Bradley Center, so it really would be an embarrassment if we lose either of those, then an 88% chance against USF at home, so we would have to be ever worse/more unlucky to lose that game than the loss AT DePaul.  Thanks all for feedback - good comments.  Sometimes after I research these I have to focus back on work to make up time for a few days, so just wanted to response to all at once.

[damuts222]

2) the Selection Committee does consider how good the roster is that will play in the NCAA tourney, so if MU plays better with Cadougan than they did without him, it will be a major boost in the process, and

 Entirely agree with this. It helps if we play well down the stretch to show the Committee that we are worthy of a bid, it will be tough.

[RawdogDX]

1) MU is about to start playing games that will count in the “RECORD IN FINAL 12 GAMES” category as early as Rutgers on Tuesday, so if he is the difference in just one game down the stretch he could help ensure at least a 9-3 mark in the last 12 games even if we lose in the Big East tourney opener;

The record in the final 12 is no longer a consideration.  They don't weight the wins based on date anymore.

[ErickJD08]

Well, if we get into the top half of the Big East AND we get two wins against UConn, Pitt, or Louisville, we will have enough quality wins to move on.