Count me as one that believes Utah State will be tough

[ChicosBailBonds]

26 year old center, veteran age group (several mormons on the team).  Stew Morril is an incredible coach that has done it for decades.  Game is in Boise which is about a 4 hour drive from Logan, UT.

I love our seed, but I don't like playing a team that has 30 wins under their belt.  This will be a tough matchup.

They lost 4 games all year, 3 on the road and one on a neutral site.  This will be a pseudo home game for them.  Tough matchup.

[muarmy81]

Chicos,
It's been awhile but this is one that I agree with.  I'm surprised with our 6 Seed as I was thinking we'd get a 7-10 seed but Utah State will be tough (Their Center is tough) and I think Mizzou will be a very difficult game.
That being said, I think we've got a chance...

[NavinRJohnson]

Tough, but still a game we should win. They've gotta play against us too.

[downtown85]

I remember thinking something similar before the Northern Iowa game.  Veteran team with a good big man expected to do damage in the MVC. 

If we play at our pace, I expect this to be double digit win.   

[MUhoops12]

I remember thinking something similar before the Northern Iowa game.  Veteran team with a good big man expected to do damage in the MVC. 

If we play at our pace, I expect this to be double digit win.   

Agreed

[ChicosBailBonds]

I remember thinking something similar before the Northern Iowa game.  Veteran team with a good big man expected to do damage in the MVC. 

If we play at our pace, I expect this to be double digit win.   

Northern Iowa isn't coached by a legend, that's the difference.

[4everwarriors]

Northern Iowa isn't coached by a legend, that's the difference.

What position does Morill play?

[ChicosBailBonds]

They are also more veteran than we are.  Starting age of 23 years old. 

[ChicosBailBonds]

What position does Morill play?

Ringmaster.  Remember, it was folks like you that said Crean prevented MU from being that good, so now you're saying the coach doesn't matter?  Trying to have it both ways again?   

[4everwarriors]

So now you're comparing a self-serving, power crazed idiot to a legend?

[bilsu]

First of all I think we will win this game. What I am most happy about is that we got the type of opponent I wanted. A team that if we lose to I can root for. If we lose to Utah St. they will have 31 wins. It is out of our recruiting area so we are not playing a team we would normally recruit against. I really did not want to pay a team from the midwest.

[ChicosBailBonds]

So now you're comparing a self-serving, power crazed idiot to a legend?

I would never compare Hayward to you....ever.

[Fred Garvin]

Majerus just said that Utah st is the toughest place in basketball to play.The only problem is that they can't bring their court to Boise.

[g0lden3agle]

I think we are totally underplaying the "Our God is better than your god" card here guys, on that note, I'm predicting an easy 20 point win.

[BrewCity83]

Utah State apparently can't win in Boise.  They lost their game at Boise State this year.

[Fred Garvin]

Majerus asked who else made the tourney from there conference?
when he was told no one,he said that is a good measuring device to tell you about the conference.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Utah State apparently can't win in Boise.  They lost their game at Boise State this year.

I think we will win, but these 20 point blowout predictions....I'm not buying

[TVDirector]

Northern Iowa isn't coached by a legend, that's the difference.

Stew Morrill (1-6 NCAA tournament record)

[nyg]

TEN of Utah State's players are either freshman or sophomores, not alot of experience there.

[MUWeb7]

Utah State hasn't played anyone. Not worried at all. They do however have some good 3pt shooters and a stud down low. That makes it tough.

I think we win this. Small lead at half and run away with it in the 2nd. I see this as a game that Rel and Wes will have no trouble getting to the basket and scoring/drawing fouls. No way they have the talent to defend our guys.

[BrewCity83]

TEN of Utah State's players are either freshman or sophomores, not alot of experience there.

No, but aren't they all old mormons who are freshmen at 21 or so?

[ChicosBailBonds]

No, but aren't they all old mormons who are freshmen at 21 or so?

Average age of starters is 23 I believe

[IAmMarquette]

Gonna be a tough game. You don't win 30 games if you're not a pretty good team. That said, I think we win this one. I'll say about a 10-point margin of victory.

[mwbauer7]

They are also more veteran than we are.  Starting age of 23 years old. 

They are older than us, but not "more veteran." According to Pomeroy, their "experience" statistic is 1.46 years, good for 235th in the country. Our "experience" stat is 2.46 years, 7th in the country.

Also, we've been to the tourney the last 3 years. I don't believe they have anyone on their roster who has played in the NCAA Tournament.

Granted- it will still be a tough game.

[lab_warrior]

They have not played a team of our caliber this year.  I think the key will be to force a faster pace, and get to the FT line, like we did against Nova.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Stew Morrill (1-6 NCAA tournament record)

Yup.  But 12 of the last 13 years, 20+ wins per year.   Overall, 17 years of 20+ wins.  He's a legendary coach on this side of the world.

He doesn't have a lot of NCAA wins because of the conference / teams he has coached get very low seeds and aren't supposed to win.

We should be victorious on Friday, I just don't buy this 20 point win prediction nonsense.  It will be a tough game.  Much like I said the Holy Cross, Alabama, Kentucky games would be tough!  They all were

[tower912]

Chicos, I usually defend your basketball opinions, particularly about Crean, but right now you are starting to sound like Murf.   I expect a tough game 4 hours from their home at altitude.   If our guys have figured out how to play without DJ, everyone contributing, no one trying to do too much, we win.   

[ChicosBailBonds]

Chicos, I usually defend your basketball opinions, particularly about Crean, but right now you are starting to sound like Murf.   I expect a tough game 4 hours from their home at altitude.   If our guys have figured out how to play without DJ, everyone contributing, no one trying to do too much, we win.   

I'm pretty sure I said we would win.     But I don't buy the 20 point drubbings that people are predicting.

[MUSF]

Chico's, most teams seeded 12 or better in the tourney are a tough out.  

That said, I think a loss here would be a major disappointment.  

[ChicosBailBonds]

Chico's, most teams seeded 12 or better in the tourney are a tough out.  

That said, I think a loss here would be a major disappointment.  

Agreed.  That's why the folks in this thread predicting an easy win, 20 points plus, double digits no problem....I love their optimism but I guess they don't watch much tournament hoops when all these games are tough outs.

[g0lden3agle]

Agreed.  That's why the folks in this thread predicting an easy win, 20 points plus, double digits no problem....I love their optimism but I guess they don't watch much tournament hoops when all these games are tough outs.

My 20 point prediction was a joke, based purely on the "Our God is better than your god" play.

[ChicosBailBonds]

My 20 point prediction was a joke, based purely on the "Our God is better than your god" play.

I need teal   

[g0lden3agle]

Yeah I was too lazy to edit it... going with my last two posts, has there ever been a "God's on our side" chant during any of our victories?  I went to a Catholic HS and that was a very popular chant to use towards the end of any game that we were going to close out as winners.  Interesting that it hasn't made it to the Collegiate level yet.

[NCMUFan]

What started like a good thread is quickly sounding extremely stupid.

[Muhoops85]

Yes, and their mascot is tough, too.  Just ask Pistol Pete.

Tall Titan, perhaps we can arrange some type of payment if you are willing to try to ride Big Blue.  

Thank goodness, our mascot is sans moustache.

[🏀]

Yes, and their mascot is tough, too.  Just ask Pistol Pete.

Tall Titan, perhaps we can arrange some type of payment if you are willing to try to ride Big Blue.  

Thank goodness, our mascot is sans moustache.

TT34 is very unconfrontational.

[THEbig0]

He's a legendary coach on this side of the world. He doesn't have a lot of NCAA wins because of the conference / teams he has coached get very low seeds and aren't supposed to win.

Actually, I was friends with Stew Morrill's son in  Montana when he was a coach for the Grizzlies back in the late 80s and 90s.  He is a good coach, but I wouldn't say legend - his teams actually could have been better for the talent they had those days (in Montana terms).  He seemed just like a normal guy to me at the time. Very nice though.  

[Muhoops85]

Actually, I was friends with Stew Morrill's son in  Montana when he was a coach for the Grizzlies back in the late 80s and 90s.  He is a good coach, but I wouldn't say legend - his teams actually could have been better for the talent they had those days (in Montana terms).  He seemed just like a normal guy to me at the time. Very nice though.  

I thought he was a Cubs fan!

[Henry Sugar]

Here's why I think Utah State will be tough.

Their strength is offensive eFG%, where they are #4 in the country.

Our weakness is defensive eFG%, where we are #253 in the country. 

Mix an opponent's strength against our weakness and you get bad things.

In fact, I hate to say it, but my prediction model right now says 8 point Utah State win.  Having said that, the model was a lot better during conference play because of consistency on opponents.  I'm sure that strength of opponents factors in here, but it doesn't change the fundamental idea that Utah State is strong in exactly an area where we are weak.

On the plus side, we were pretty solid on eFG% against SJU and Villanova.

[Pakuni]

Average age of starters is 23 I believe

In my world, at least, game experience against Big East competition trumps the life experience of getting doors slammed in your face while on a mission.
Utah St. players may be older, but they're not more experienced.

Utah St. seems a solid team, but their 30-4 record looks a lot less impressive when you get a look at their 134th ranked schedule schedule. They're 3-3 against teams in the Pomeroy top 100, with the wins coming by two points at home against Utah and twice over #97 Nevada (once at home, once on a neutral court). They haven't exactly gone against the kind of competition they'll see Friday.

The game is by no means a gimme for MU. Nothing is these days. But Utah St. may very well be the least fearsome #11 seed in the tourney.
Raise your hand if you'd prefer a rematch with Dayton.

[79Warrior]

I think we will win, but these 20 point blowout predictions....I'm not buying

Agreed. we are not blowing anybody out.

[NavinRJohnson]

but it doesn't change the fundamental idea that Utah State is strong in exactly an area where we are weak.

This is your specialty not mine, but isn't the opposite true as well?

[Henry Sugar]

This is your specialty not mine, but isn't the opposite true as well?

No, not really.

Their two major weaknesses are not forcing turnovers and 3 point defense.  One of our major strengths is protecting the ball, but we'd need to get to the point of only committing 6 turnovers to make a big difference.  That's a pitifully small number of turnovers.  And we're only average at three point shots.

I think that there's something to the "quality of opponents" argument too. 

[TVDirector]

Fri, Nov 14   Montana St.-Northern   W 71-50   --   --   
    Mon, Nov 17   at UCSB   W 61-59   --   --   
    Tue, Nov 25   Weber St.   W 75-49   --   --   
    Sat, Nov 29   Cal Poly   W 97-57   --   --   
    Tue, Dec 2   UC Irvine   W 74-62   --   --   
    Sat, Dec 6   BYU   L 63-68   --   --   
    Sat, Dec 13   at Utah Valley   W 69-50   --   --   
    Wed, Dec 17   at Southern Utah   W 72-65   --   --   
    Sat, Dec 20   at Idaho St.   W 67-57   --   --   
    Mon, Dec 22   Utah   W 66-64   --   --   
    Mon, Dec 29   Howard   W 85-45   --   --   
    Tue, Dec 30   Houston Baptist   W 94-77   --   --   
    Wed, Dec 31   Wyoming   W 90-85   --   --   
    Mon, Jan 5   Idaho   W 70-61   --   --   
    Thu, Jan 8   at Louisiana Tech   W 50-37   --   --   
    Sat, Jan 10   at New Mexico St.   W 77-67   --   --   
    Thu, Jan 15   Fresno St.   W 65-61   --   --   
    Sat, Jan 17   Boise St.   W 79-65   --   --   
    Thu, Jan 22   at San Jose St.   W 62-58   --   --   
    Sat, Jan 24   at Hawaii   W 67-51   --   --   
    Thu, Jan 29   Nevada   W 72-61   --   --   
    Sat, Jan 31   at Fresno St.   W 83-77   --   --   
    Thu, Feb 5   New Mexico St.   W 78-59   --   --   
    Sat, Feb 7   Louisiana Tech   W 60-52   --   --   
    Thu, Feb 12   at Idaho   W 62-53   --   --   
    Sat, Feb 14   at Boise St.   L 56-66   --   --   
    Wed, Feb 18   CSU Bakersfield   W 78-57   --   --   
    Sat, Feb 21   at St. Mary's   L 64-75   --   --   
    Thu, Feb 26   Hawaii   W 82-62   --   --   
    Sat, Feb 28   at Nevada   L 71-84   --   --   
    Sat, Mar 7   San Jose St.   W 89-77   --   --   
    Thu, Mar 12   Fresno St.   W 85-68   --   --   
    Fri, Mar 13   New Mexico St.   W 71-70   --   --   
    Sat, Mar 14   at Nevada   W 72-62

Western Athletic   Conf   All
 Utah St.   14-2   30-4
 Nevada   11-5   21-12
 Boise St.   9-7   19-12
 New Mexico St.   9-7   17-15
 Idaho   9-7   16-15
 Louisiana Tech   6-10   15-18
 San Jose St.   6-10   13-17
 Hawaii   5-11   13-17
 Fresno St.   3-13   13-21
 

[ChicosBailBonds]

In my world, at least, game experience against Big East competition trumps the life experience of getting doors slammed in your face while on a mission.
Utah St. players may be older, but they're not more experienced.

Utah St. seems a solid team, but their 30-4 record looks a lot less impressive when you get a look at their 134th ranked schedule schedule. They're 3-3 against teams in the Pomeroy top 100, with the wins coming by two points at home against Utah and twice over #97 Nevada (once at home, once on a neutral court). They haven't exactly gone against the kind of competition they'll see Friday.

The game is by no means a gimme for MU. Nothing is these days. But Utah St. may very well be the least fearsome #11 seed in the tourney.
Raise your hand if you'd prefer a rematch with Dayton.

Again, that's why I'm picking MU to win.

By the way, I don't slam doors in their face....I'm religiously tolerant and let them have their say.

[gjreda]

Here's why I think Utah State will be tough.

Their strength is offensive eFG%, where they are #4 in the country.

Our weakness is defensive eFG%, where we are #253 in the country. 

Mix an opponent's strength against our weakness and you get bad things.

In fact, I hate to say it, but my prediction model right now says 8 point Utah State win.  Having said that, the model was a lot better during conference play because of consistency on opponents.  I'm sure that strength of opponents factors in here, but it doesn't change the fundamental idea that Utah State is strong in exactly an area where we are weak.

On the plus side, we were pretty solid on eFG% against SJU and Villanova.

Henry, not sure what type of model you are doing, but if it's a regression, couldn't you throw in a SOS variable?  I'd be happy to compile them for you if that's the case.

[Pakuni]

No, not really.

Their two major weaknesses are not forcing turnovers and 3 point defense.  One of our major strengths is protecting the ball, but we'd need to get to the point of only committing 6 turnovers to make a big difference.  That's a pitifully small number of turnovers.  And we're only average at three point shots.

According to Pomeroy, the Aggies played the 174th most difficult schedule in the nation this year and the 211th most difficult non-conference schedule.
They played a whopping two games against tournament teams, a loss to BYU on a neutral court, and a two-point win at home over Utah.
I suspect the level of competition, in this case, has a huge impact on their numbers and why Pomeroy considers them the 56th best team in the country, well behind the likes of Notre Dame, Georgetown and Wisconsin.

[Henry Sugar]

According to Pomeroy, the Aggies played the 174th most difficult schedule in the nation this year and the 211th most difficult non-conference schedule.
They played a whopping two games against tournament teams, a loss to BYU on a neutral court, and a two-point win at home over Utah.
I suspect the level of competition, in this case, has a huge impact on their numbers and why Pomeroy considers them the 56th best team in the country, well behind the likes of Notre Dame, Georgetown and Wisconsin.

Then hopefully Marquette will have few problems shutting down their offense by forcing them into bad shots and committing turnovers.

[ChicosBailBonds]

According to Pomeroy, the Aggies played the 174th most difficult schedule in the nation this year and the 211th most difficult non-conference schedule.
They played a whopping two games against tournament teams, a loss to BYU on a neutral court, and a two-point win at home over Utah.
I suspect the level of competition, in this case, has a huge impact on their numbers and why Pomeroy considers them the 56th best team in the country, well behind the likes of Notre Dame, Georgetown and Wisconsin.

They played a more difficult out of conference schedule then we did, but that's nothing to be surprised about (we were 226th)

[Fred Garvin]

I understand the rankings an such,but it's hard to figure that they would have had a tougher non conference then us considering we played Dayton,Wisky,Northern Iowa and Tenn. that's 4 tourney teams.And they played 2.

[Wareagle]

I understand the rankings an such,but it's hard to figure that they would have had a tougher non conference then us considering we played Dayton,Wisky,Northern Iowa and Tenn. that's 4 tourney teams.And they played 2.

It's because the bad teams we played were some of the worst in D-I and they severely dragged down our SOS

[DaCoach]

Their strength is offensive eFG%, where they are #4 in the country.

Our weakness is defensive eFG%, where we are #253 in the country. 

Mix an opponent's strength against our weakness and you get bad things.

Almost all Wilkinson's buckets are within 2-3 feet. He was bigger and stronger than his opposing big men in the WAC. Look at their team blocks...very low. Their PG is new and our defense will create nightmares for them getting up the court. They can't stay with our penetration. They're an excellent low level team from a lousy conference. Add to that our anger after the last game and it looks like a blowout to me.

[ChicosBailBonds]

I understand the rankings an such,but it's hard to figure that they would have had a tougher non conference then us considering we played Dayton,Wisky,Northern Iowa and Tenn. that's 4 tourney teams.And they played 2.

Texas Southern
IUPUI Ft. Wayne
Houston Baptist
Western Carolina
Central Michigan
Presbyterian
Chicago State

We played an absolutely dreadful non conference schedule when you get past the teams you mentioned above.  6 schools at 240 or worse, a 7th at 225.

[T.V. Diener 34]

Guys, let's also remember that Wisconsin is playing in Boise too.  While I realize that a lot of MU fans cheer against UW and vice versa, I feel that we will have a stronger home following than usual in Boise because Wisconsin also plays there.  For this reason, I feel that we can somewhat balance the home court advantage.

[muwarrior87]

Guys, let's also remember that Wisconsin is playing in Boise too.  While I realize that a lot of MU fans cheer against UW and vice versa, I feel that we will have a stronger home following than usual in Boise because Wisconsin also plays there.  For this reason, I feel that we can somewhat balance the home court advantage.

I believe we play on different days though. Unless someone wants to buy two sessions of tickets, which I guess if you're going to Boise there probably isn't much else to do...will have to find out when i get there, we probably won't have any Wisky fans cheering for us

EDIT:  same day, we have earliest game, they have latest game

[NotAnAlum]

I would expect a very hostile crowd.  Boise is a WAC town and the WAC has a big chip on its shoulder that they don't get respect from the big conferences.  I would expect the hometown crowd to be very pro Utah St and of course Utah St fans will drive up in droves.

[bamamarquettefan]

They scare me in that they are a team that could just start lighting it up from behind the arc and get the crowd fired up to surge to a lead.  I also get paranoid about how refs who haven't seen MU play before will call a game because we are so quick at picking the ball that it sometimes looks like we must have fouled, and we can't get in foul trouble.

A quick glance back at the preseason books said they had a lot of jucos coming in, so that may explain the "old but inexperienced."  I loved how Acker stayed in McInerney's grill at South Bend - I think this is a much better matchup for him than an AJ Price type overpowering guard who can also drive.

[Robyrd5]

Yeah I was too lazy to edit it... going with my last two posts, has there ever been a "God's on our side" chant during any of our victories?  I went to a Catholic HS and that was a very popular chant to use towards the end of any game that we were going to close out as winners.  Interesting that it hasn't made it to the Collegiate level yet.

I've heard us chant that once or twice at the BC, just not this year. It usually happens when we play ND at home.

[ATWizJr]

I think they will be twice as good as St. John's so we will only beat them by half as much.

[LON]

We just need to steal their magic underwear!

[SaintPaulWarrior]

Warriors are a 4.5 point favorite on sportsbook.com.

[downtown85]

kenpom predicts a win by 6.  (72% chance of a win)

http://kenpom.com/team.php?team=Marquette

[Buzz Williams' Spillproof Chiclets Cup]

We SHOULD win, but I have a hard time believing that this one won't still be in doubt with 5 minutes to go.

[Wareagle]

kenpom predicts a win by 6.  (72% chance of a win)

http://kenpom.com/team.php?team=Marquette

I am one of the  biggest KenPom fans on the board, but I will be the first to say do not take that prediction for much of anything. 

His 6 point win is based on MU's total body of work thus far, which is based on 28 games with DJ, and 5 without him, therefore the averages are tilted towards reflecting a team with DJ, not than the situation we face now.  Essentially, his model still assumes DJ is on the team.

[BuzzSucksSucks]

I think we have to concede a big home court advantage to Utah State, and from the 2003 regional final we know what an advantage that can mean in the tourney.  I think we'll still win, though.  I wouldn't put it past NDSU to beat Kansas for the same reason.