Hey Sugar...

ATWizJr

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Posts: 1161

Hey Sugar...

« on: January 11, 2009, 10:44:09 AM »

how does yesterday's result relate to the stats you posted prior to the game? What was the difference?

Thanks.


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marqptm

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Posts: 1691

I feel the master, I feel him.

Re: Hey Sugar...

« Reply #1 on: January 11, 2009, 10:54:45 AM »

I got a feeling his full depth analysis is coming... per usual Angry


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77ncaachamps

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Re: Hey Sugar...

« Reply #2 on: January 11, 2009, 11:08:46 AM »

Quote from: marqptm on January 11, 2009, 10:54:45 AM

I got a feeling his full depth analysis is coming... per usual Angry

Why the face?


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A recruit remains a prospect after he has signed an NLI or accepts an offer of financial aid to attend MU, until he reports for the first day of classes for a regular term (fall or spring) or begins official practice immediately prior to the start of classes. Treat ALL students as prospects!

marqptm

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Posts: 1691

I feel the master, I feel him.

Re: Hey Sugar...

« Reply #3 on: January 11, 2009, 11:20:09 AM »

Quote from: 77ncaachamps on January 11, 2009, 11:08:46 AM

Why the face?

Because he had to ask.


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Henry Sugar

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Liam is tougher than Chuck Norris

Re: Hey Sugar...

« Reply #4 on: January 11, 2009, 09:21:12 PM »

Thanks for asking. I probably wasn't going to throw it on the CS post, but I will put it here now. The original prediction was a four point victory and 69% chance of a win, so all of the recommendations baseline from that. Each recommendation is cumulative. Yes, I know that the prediction is plus 13 when we won by 22. The recommendations are the "top five", and not all aspects of the model, and it's only a model so there are limitations.

Recommendations vs. Results

Specific Statistics Recommendations (In order of importance) with results

1.   Achieve an eFG% of 55% or higher, which translates to 27 made field goals (including 7 threes), which is right at season average and gives 70% chance of Marquette win

Result – eFG% was 45.5%. Advantage West Virginia. Changed margin of victory prediction from plus four to minus four

2.   Limit WVU to an eFG% of 47.5% or less, which translates to 26 made field goals (including 7 threes), which is right at their season average

Result – WVU eFG% was 39.2%. Advantage Marquette. Changed margin of victory from minus four back to plus four

3.   Limit WVU to an offensive rebounding percentage of 40% or less (16 offensive rebounds, which is one less than their average)

Result – WVU had an OR% of 35.9%. Advantage Marquette. Changed margin of victory prediction from plus four to plus six

4.   Commit turnovers at a rate of 21% or less (~14 turnovers)

Result – Turnover Rate was 12.3%. Advantage Marquette. Changed margin of victory prediction from plus six to plus 13

5.   Force WVU into a turnover rate higher than 20.5% (also about 14 turnovers)

Result – WVU Turnover Rate was 20.4% - Push.