MUScoop

MUScoop => Hangin' at the Al => Topic started by: Marcus92 on May 19, 2017, 12:06:41 AM

Title: What will Sam's usage be next season?
Post by: Marcus92 on May 19, 2017, 12:06:41 AM
As a freshman, Sam Hauser played more minutes than anyone else on the Marquette roster last season. More than seniors Luke Fischer, JaJuan Johnson or Katin Reinhardt. More than our leading scorer Markus Howard.

He also led the team in offensive rating (28th best in the country per KenPom), turnover percentage (88th best) and defensive rebounding percentage. And believe it or not, Sam was second on the team in blocked shots.

But he was second-to-last on the team in usage, assist rate and free throw attempts. And third lowest on the team in 2-pointers taken (although he made 51.5% of them).

I don't think getting minutes will be an issue. But how big of a role do you think Sam will play in the offense next season? Can he step up to become more than a perimeter shooter — by developing his mid-range game, driving to the basket or posting up?
Title: Re: What will Sam's usage be next season?
Post by: THRILLHO on May 19, 2017, 09:03:21 AM
Two factors that affect his changing role:

1) New teammates

2) New skill development

For 1), he was mostly playing against bigger guys last year, so we didn't see much of his post up game. When he was matched up with smaller guys, my recollection is he had the IQ to know that he should post them up immediately and scored often. If playing a bigger lineup gives him more minutes at the 3 then his usage could go up with post moves. But that only happens if the freshmen bigs are ready to go, because for the first semester Heldt is our only big with experience.

For 2), I am curious if anyone has any inside info on what he's working on. He's already a great shooter and has a decent mid-range game. Wonder if they'll have him working on driving/slashing? Or on creating his own outside shots (shooting off screens and dribble more, where last year it seemed like he relied on spot up shooting from other people's creating)? I could see the latter getting him more opportunities.

Title: Re: What will Sam's usage be next season?
Post by: JamilJaeJamailJrJuan on May 19, 2017, 10:00:02 AM
Sam is going to be a beast this year.  I don't think we'll see him in the frontcourt much at all once BE season starts.  Wouldn't be too surprised to see him score over 12-13 PPG next season.
Title: Re: What will Sam's usage be next season?
Post by: Hubert Davis on May 19, 2017, 10:08:29 AM
Sam has NBA potential if he keeps developing and working on becoming a quicker, more explosive athlete. His jump shot is already pure but if he can keep adding different dimensions to his game (ball handling, driving ability, post-game, 3 point range, defending quicker players )over the course of his MU career, I wouldn't be surprised to see him become a lottery pick.

Go Marquette
Title: Re: What will Sam's usage be next season?
Post by: Jay Bee on May 19, 2017, 10:14:41 AM
If I had to pick a % today... 19%

I see Rowsey & Markus repeating hefty usage rates, with both potentially growing theirs. Then again, more of their time will be togerher (as compared to last year), so will be interesting

Sam's growth can come from JjJ's departure
Title: Re: What will Sam's usage be next season?
Post by: TAMU, Knower of Ball on May 19, 2017, 10:26:44 AM
The low usage is why Sam is my pick for "most likely to disappoint scoopers" next season. His raw numbers should raise but my guess is he'll be less efficient doing it leading to some good old fashion hand wringing and accusations of demotivating.
Title: Re: What will Sam's usage be next season?
Post by: lohaus on May 19, 2017, 12:53:44 PM
I anticipate seeing him show more of his mid range game.  I'm sure he will get quicker and more explosive. . . but I can't see him becoming a 'quick and explosive' athlete.  He will show more as he starts to play more 3 than undersized 4.
Title: Re: What will Sam's usage be next season?
Post by: brewcity77 on May 19, 2017, 12:56:33 PM
Higher than last year, but not as high as Scoopers might expect. I think 18-19% will be about right. One thing Sam does well is pick his shots, and I think he'd sooner make an extra pass than force a shot.

A lot will probably hinge on Cheatham or whoever ends up on the wing. Howard and Rowsey will almost certainly get their share, will someone like Haani, Anim, Cain, or Elliott step up to take some of that wing scoring load? If so, I'd expect that to cut primarily into Sam's usage.
Title: Re: What will Sam's usage be next season?
Post by: bilsu on May 19, 2017, 01:26:10 PM
In my opinion his low usage last year was due to his personality. He simply passed up shots he could of taken as he was focus on only taking wide open shots. As a sophomore he could very well become more aggressive on the offensive end. His usage will not change much, if he does not become more aggressive.
Title: Re: What will Sam's usage be next season?
Post by: cheebs09 on May 19, 2017, 01:39:32 PM
I'm hoping he can use his 3 pt reputation to break down the defense. He started to use a pump fake and a few quick dribbles. If he could turn that into making some mid range shots or getting the defense out of position and swinging it around the 3 pt line, I think he could take a nice step forward.
Title: Re: What will Sam's usage be next season?
Post by: Marcus92 on May 19, 2017, 02:24:04 PM
I'm hoping he can use his 3 pt reputation to break down the defense. He started to use a pump fake and a few quick dribbles. If he could turn that into making some mid range shots or getting the defense out of position and swinging it around the 3 pt line, I think he could take a nice step forward.

Imagine if Sam becomes half as effective with a pump fake as Andrew is. Scary prospect.
Title: Re: What will Sam's usage be next season?
Post by: TAMU, Knower of Ball on May 19, 2017, 02:26:46 PM
Imagine if Sam becomes half as effective with a pump fake as Andrew is. Scary prospect.

Would be terrifying. I think Rowsey benefits from his height in that situation. I think he's so short that defenders get overly excited and think they can destroy his shot. They are wrong in that assumption.
Title: Re: What will Sam's usage be next season?
Post by: muwarrior69 on May 20, 2017, 05:12:00 AM
I hope he doesn't catch the Haani bug and regresses.
Title: Re: What will Sam's usage be next season?
Post by: Jay Bee on May 20, 2017, 07:23:21 AM
I hope he doesn't catch the Haani bug and regresses.

You mean that regression bug where Haani's ORtg improved from 101.1 to 106.7, his DR% improved from 10.8% to 14.5%, and his turnover rate decreased from 24.4% to 18.5%?

Expect what some may see as "regression" from several MU players offensively next season. The key is making it up and then some on the defensive end. Sam's shooting and low turnover rate have minimal room for improvement. I think he can get to the line more often, but his 127.8 ORtg rising, especially if we're looking for a hefty jump in his usage, is a bit much to ax, IMO.
Title: Re: What will Sam's usage be next season?
Post by: Dr. Blackheart on May 20, 2017, 07:49:31 AM
You mean that regression bug where Haani's ORtg improved from 101.1 to 106.7, his DR% improved from 10.8% to 14.5%, and his turnover rate decreased from 24.4% to 18.5%?

Expect what some may see as "regression" from several MU players offensively next season. The key is making it up and then some on the defensive end. Sam's shooting and low turnover rate have minimal room for improvement. I think he can get to the line more often, but his 127.8 ORtg rising, especially if we're looking for a hefty jump in his usage, is a bit much to ax, IMO.

We discussed this during the regular season, the regressing in conference play is the issue where the kid has been scouted. A drop of Ortg to 93.8 from 95.0. EFg% dropped to 43.3% from 50.6% with trey shooting dipping to 27.8% and deuces at 43.7%. Turnover rate remained at a poor 25.0. Assist rate fell to 11.8% from 13.1. All symptoms that he needs to dimesionalize his game instead of the heads down drive to the hoop game that conference teams adjusted to (and as indicated by his increase in FTR tp 65.2 from 42.9...but that no matta as the defenses sagged off and just guarded his well known driving tendancies).

Now, does he have potential? Yes. Does he give good effort on defense? Yes. As an upperclassman will he need to carry the load against conference teams? Yes
Title: Re: What will Sam's usage be next season?
Post by: Jay Bee on May 20, 2017, 07:58:29 AM
We discussed this during the regular season, the regressing in conference play is the issue where the kid has been scouted. A drop of Ortg to 93.8 from 95.0. EFg% dropped to 43.3% from 50.6% with trey shooting dipping to 27.8% and deuces at 43.7%. Turnover rate remained at a poor 25.0. Assist rate fell to 11.8% from 13.1. All symptoms that he needs to dimesionalize his game instead of the heads down drive to the hoop game that conference teams adjusted to (and as indicated by his increase in FTR tp 65.2 from 42.9...but that no matta as the defenses sagged off and just guarded his well known driving tendancies).

Now, does he have potential? Yes. Does he give good effort on defense? Yes. As an upperclassman will he need to carry the load against conference teams? Yes

OK, so the scary regression is 95.4 to 93.8 in conference play. Yawn.

His FTR was second best in the conference. (His FT% declined, but that no matta - and at 71% FT in conf, it was still a great offensive possession for him to get to the line, and was a big factor in maintaining his ORtg despite the decline in eFG%).

I see some of Haani's issues as mental as well.. may come back with his mind clear and that stretch of games out of his system.
Title: Re: What will Sam's usage be next season?
Post by: Dr. Blackheart on May 20, 2017, 08:20:19 AM
OK, so the scary regression is 95.4 to 93.8 in conference play. Yawn.

His FTR was second best in the conference. (His FT% declined, but that no matta - and at 71% FT in conf, it was still a great offensive possession for him to get to the line, and was a big factor in maintaining his ORtg despite the decline in eFG%).

I see some of Haani's issues as mental as well.. may come back with his mind clear and that stretch of games out of his system.

Well, if you like well below averages, it is a yawn. Wojo didn't and he gave Haani less and less minutes. Compare the opportunity costs to these conference Ortgs: Matt 149.3, Andrew 132.2, Luke 124.4, Katin 123.3, Sam 119.9, Markus 117.3, and then a drop to Du 99.8, JJJ to 98.5...and then Haani to 93.8. Haani didn't improve...it isn't so much the mental part as the need for him to dimensionalize his game.
Title: Re: What will Sam's usage be next season?
Post by: Daniel on May 20, 2017, 08:48:40 AM
Haani got to the rim last year but did not finish too large a percentage of those.   Hopefully that improves this year. 

And the team will benefit from pump games - Rowsey is the only one who consistently uses this tool.  Everything ne Ned's to put this tool in their offensive arsenal. 

Sam will play a lot.  He started to show more two point ability and penetrating ability second half last year.   He will be a key to success in 17/18
Title: Re: What will Sam's usage be next season?
Post by: Herman Cain on May 20, 2017, 01:17:09 PM
I was bullish on Sam going into last season . He had an outstanding freshman year and added a dimension of basketball IQ that cannot be captured statistically and was well liked by his teammates . In fact, JJJ said Sam was his favorite college basketball player.

Sam will continue to progress . He will be a direct beneficiary of our mother lode of Bigs as this will allow him to play the 2 and 3. Sam will be among those considered for Big East Player of the year when he is a senior.
Title: Re: What will Sam's usage be next season?
Post by: MU82 on May 21, 2017, 07:10:03 PM
Way, way, WAAAY too lazy to look it up. Would one or two of you fine hoops-state aficionados please explain briefly what "usage" is and why it is important?

Thanks in advance!
Title: Re: What will Sam's usage be next season?
Post by: GGGG on May 21, 2017, 07:20:12 PM
Sam has NBA potential if he keeps developing and working on becoming a quicker, more explosive athlete. His jump shot is already pure but if he can keep adding different dimensions to his game (ball handling, driving ability, post-game, 3 point range, defending quicker players )over the course of his MU career, I wouldn't be surprised to see him become a lottery pick.

Go Marquette


The chances of Sam Hauser making the NBA, much less being a lottery pick, are quite remote.  Very skillful, but not terribly athletic.

I mean, do you *watch* the NBA?
Title: Re: What will Sam's usage be next season?
Post by: MuMark on May 21, 2017, 07:34:37 PM
Way, way, WAAAY too lazy to look it up. Would one or two of you fine hoops-state aficionados please explain briefly what "usage" is and why it is important?

Thanks in advance!

https://rotogrinders.com/lessons/what-is-usage-rate-919038
Title: Re: What will Sam's usage be next season?
Post by: real chili 83 on May 21, 2017, 08:49:05 PM
I analyze with this agreement
Title: Re: What will Sam's usage be next season?
Post by: MU82 on May 21, 2017, 09:06:02 PM
https://rotogrinders.com/lessons/what-is-usage-rate-919038

Thanks. Reading this, it leaves me thinking that usage rate matters to those who run fantasy NBA teams.

Not how or why that should translate to what Sam or any other college player does, and why it would make him more valuable or less valuable than any other college player.
Title: Re: What will Sam's usage be next season?
Post by: GGGG on May 21, 2017, 09:33:34 PM
Thanks. Reading this, it leaves me thinking that usage rate matters to those who run fantasy NBA teams.

Not how or why that should translate to what Sam or any other college player does, and why it would make him more valuable or less valuable than any other college player.


I don't think it indicates value as much as it indicates how a player is utilized.  For instance, Sam lead MU in minutes played last year.  But that doesn't indicate how he was used.  A low usage means that he wasn't a primary offensive weapon while on the floor. 
Title: Re: What will Sam's usage be next season?
Post by: MU82 on May 21, 2017, 09:45:19 PM

I don't think it indicates value as much as it indicates how a player is utilized.  For instance, Sam lead MU in minutes played last year.  But that doesn't indicate how he was used.  A low usage means that he wasn't a primary offensive weapon while on the floor.

All right, thanks Sultan.

I am open-minded with some of the newer stats that weren't part of the picture during my formative years as a fan and observer. "Usage" doesn't seem like one that will matter much to me, but I do like eFG% and some of the others.

Most importantly, of course, FTs no matta!
Title: Re: What will Sam's usage be next season?
Post by: wadesworld on May 21, 2017, 09:52:51 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r0qM5CYCGoU

I think Sam's athleticism is vastly underrated.  Is he a freak athlete?  No.  Is he athletic enough to make it to the next level?  To be determined, but I don't think he'd be the worst athlete in the NBA if he makes it there.
Title: Re: What will Sam's usage be next season?
Post by: Lennys Tap on May 21, 2017, 09:57:12 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r0qM5CYCGoU

I think Sam's athleticism is vastly underrated.  Is he a freak athlete?  No.  Is he athletic enough to make it to the next level?  To be determined, but I don't think he'd be the worst athlete in the NBA if he makes it there.

But would he be the worst athlete 6'7" or smaller? If not, pretty damn close.
Title: Re: What will Sam's usage be next season?
Post by: murara1994 on May 21, 2017, 10:16:14 PM
69
Title: Re: What will Sam's usage be next season?
Post by: wadesworld on May 21, 2017, 10:18:51 PM
But would he be the worst athlete 6'7" or smaller? If not, pretty damn close.

Probably not, but there would be worse than him.  I've never seen guys like Steph Curry or JJ Redick or heck even Jae Crowder dunk the ball like that.
Title: Re: What will Sam's usage be next season?
Post by: murara1994 on May 21, 2017, 10:23:59 PM
69
%
Title: Re: What will Sam's usage be next season?
Post by: MUDPT on May 21, 2017, 10:43:56 PM
All right, thanks Sultan.

I am open-minded with some of the newer stats that weren't part of the picture during my formative years as a fan and observer. "Usage" doesn't seem like one that will matter much to me, but I do like eFG% and some of the others.

Most importantly, of course, FTs no matta!

Usage rate also helps to understand eFG% and other stats too.  You could look at Ortg and see Heldt was our best offensive player last year! He had the highest Ortg!  But then you look at his usage rate- 9.1%.  He was very efficient but at a really small number of possessions. 

I'll also go on record for Hauser at an 18% next year.
Title: Re: What will Sam's usage be next season?
Post by: brewcity77 on May 22, 2017, 01:42:31 AM
All right, thanks Sultan.

I am open-minded with some of the newer stats that weren't part of the picture during my formative years as a fan and observer. "Usage" doesn't seem like one that will matter much to me, but I do like eFG% and some of the others.

Most importantly, of course, FTs no matta!

It shows a number of things. Typically, as usage goes up, offensive efficiency goes down. Sam was tremendously effective last year, but the expectation is as he becomes more a focal point of the offense, his efficiency will decline.

Usage can also identify non factors on offense. Someone like Derrick was incredibly low usage. It tells the defense they can sag off because possessions rarely end in that player's hands.

It can also identify guys that are overrated. Take Russell Westbrook. Sure, his numbers were monstrous, but how many shots did he put up to get there? There was a postseason game where Westbrook said "40 points, man no one can stop me", and his defender quipped back "yeah but it took you 40 shots, so who cares?" I believe it was Patrick Beverley. Usage can show why PPG is a meaningless stat. With enough shots, any schmuck can score 20 a night, but the better the player, the fewer shots it takes to get there, thus the lower usage.

That doesn't mean usage is bad. You need someone who wants the ball in big situations and isn't afraid of the situation. But balancing a high efficiency with that rising usage will separate the ballhogs from the truly elite players.
Title: Re: What will Sam's usage be next season?
Post by: MU82 on May 22, 2017, 09:41:39 AM
I appreciate the discussion, folks. I like getting edumacated.

Still not sure if "usage" will be something that I think about very often when talkin' up hoops stats, but at least now I understand why some do.

Title: Re: What will Sam's usage be next season?
Post by: Nukem2 on May 22, 2017, 10:13:05 AM
I appreciate the discussion, folks. I like getting edumacated.

Still not sure if "usage" will be something that I think about very often when talkin' up hoops stats, but at least now I understand why some do.
Yeah, I'm getting edijicated as well.  Though the usage thing is rather obvious to the eye.  Most players simply can't be as productive having more playing time in a game as one gets tired or the ball is not going in or whatever.  Ball hogs are rather obvious (see Katin Reinhardt in early season this past year).  And, if a guy is hot, just let him go at it.  Don't need advanced stats to see that.
Title: Re: What will Sam's usage be next season?
Post by: brewcity77 on May 22, 2017, 10:47:25 AM
And, if a guy is hot, just let him go at it.  Don't need advanced stats to see that.

The problem is, those guys that just go at it are the ones that will try to shoot out of slumps. It doesn't take long for a guy to go from "feeling it" when he hits two in a row to taking three more heat check shots that miss. That's why the advanced stats matter. Because the players that make the most of the usage are the ones that are consistently good, not those that happen to hit two or three in a row and think they're Lebron James.
Title: Re: What will Sam's usage be next season?
Post by: GGGG on May 22, 2017, 11:17:47 AM
Yeah, I'm getting edijicated as well.  Though the usage thing is rather obvious to the eye.  Most players simply can't be as productive having more playing time in a game as one gets tired or the ball is not going in or whatever.  Ball hogs are rather obvious (see Katin Reinhardt in early season this past year).  And, if a guy is hot, just let him go at it.  Don't need advanced stats to see that.


I trust the stats more than I do your "eye." 
Title: Re: What will Sam's usage be next season?
Post by: MU82 on May 22, 2017, 12:04:12 PM

I trust the stats more than I do your "eye."

Sometimes.

You don't sometimes watch a game and then see the stats later and say, "I don't care what the stats say, Player XYZ stunk (or was great)"?
Title: Re: What will Sam's usage be next season?
Post by: GGGG on May 22, 2017, 12:08:48 PM
Sometimes.

You don't sometimes watch a game and then see the stats later and say, "I don't care what the stats say, Player XYZ stunk (or was great)"?


Rarely.
Title: Re: What will Sam's usage be next season?
Post by: Nukem2 on May 22, 2017, 12:18:38 PM
The problem is, those guys that just go at it are the ones that will try to shoot out of slumps. It doesn't take long for a guy to go from "feeling it" when he hits two in a row to taking three more heat check shots that miss. That's why the advanced stats matter. Because the players that make the most of the usage are the ones that are consistently good, not those that happen to hit two or three in a row and think they're Lebron James.
I guess you are describing taking good shots.  that's how coaches teach it, not via advanced usage stats.  Advanced stats are nice, but they just tell us what we already saw.
Title: Re: What will Sam's usage be next season?
Post by: GGGG on May 22, 2017, 12:25:56 PM
Advanced stats are nice, but they just tell us what we already saw.

Every stat tells you what already happened.

Your "eye" tells you what already happened too - but is not as reliable.
Title: Re: What will Sam's usage be next season?
Post by: brewcity77 on May 22, 2017, 12:42:44 PM
Every stat tells you what already happened.

Your "eye" tells you what already happened too - but is not as reliable.

Exactly right. And anyone that thinks coaches aren't using advanced stats is a freaking moron.
Title: Re: What will Sam's usage be next season?
Post by: Nukem2 on May 22, 2017, 12:46:33 PM
Every stat tells you what already happened.

Your "eye" tells you what already happened too - but is not as reliable.
Sure stats are facts, advanced or basic.  I watch games and players.  Coaches teach players what to do to win games so those stats look good.  If you and others want to delve into those stats, be my guest(s).  Interesting to review, but not very helpful during a basketball game as opposed to MLB where there are so many games that tendencies can be identified and used against the opponent.  In basketball, those tendencies need to be identified by watching opponents games.
Title: Re: What will Sam's usage be next season?
Post by: GGGG on May 22, 2017, 12:49:16 PM
Sure stats are facts, advanced or basic.  I watch games and players.  Coaches teach players what to do to win games so those stats look good.  If you and others want to delve into those stats, be my guest(s).  Interesting to review, but not very helpful during a basketball game as opposed to MLB where there are so many games that tendencies can be identified and used against the opponent.  In basketball, those tendencies need to be identified by watching opponents games.


You don't think stats tell you something about an opponent in basketball??

And of course you have to supplement stats by watching opponents games.  No one has claimed otherwise.
Title: Re: What will Sam's usage be next season?
Post by: Nukem2 on May 22, 2017, 12:57:27 PM
Exactly right. And anyone that thinks coaches aren't using advanced stats is a freaking moron.
Oh, I'm sure they look at them.  But, watching opponent's games will tell them as much.  Sure Markus Howard has a high eFG%.  But that's because he makes a lot of 3s as they already know.  Opponents will try to move him off the line to make him less effective which would result in a lower eFG%.  Give me some significant examples of how advanced stats help coaches in actual games beyond what they already get from scouring those videos of past games and talking to other coaches, etc?

PS, free throws do matta in the grand scheme of things, if not in a general statistical sense.  Off hand given the recent Gaviitt Games news,, had Ric Cobb hit that FT against Purdue 1969, MU would have won that game and moved on in the NCAAs. Yah, yah..one can point to many things earlier in that game; but the game was lost on that shot.  It mattad!  Many, many example of that since then. 
Title: Re: What will Sam's usage be next season?
Post by: Nukem2 on May 22, 2017, 12:58:13 PM

You don't think stats tell you something about an opponent in basketball??

And of course you have to supplement stats by watching opponents games.  No one has claimed otherwise.
Hmmm....think you have that backward?  ;)  PS, we are talking advanced stats here not basic traditional stats.
Title: Re: What will Sam's usage be next season?
Post by: GGGG on May 22, 2017, 01:03:55 PM
Oh, I'm sure they look at them.  But, watching opponent's games will tell them as much.  Sure Markus Howard has a high eFG%.  But that's because he makes a lot of 3s as they already know.  Opponents will try to move him off the line to make him less effective which would result in a lower eFG%.  Give me some significant examples of how advanced stats help coaches in actual games beyond what they already get from scouring those videos of past games and talking to other coaches, etc?

PS, free throws do matta in the grand scheme of things, if not in a general statistical sense.  Off hand given the recent Gaviitt Games news,, had Ric Cobb hit that FT against Purdue 1969, MU would have won that game and moved on in the NCAAs. Yah, yah..one can point to many things earlier in that game; but the game was lost on that shot.  It mattad!  Many, many example of that since then. 


No.  FT% rarely matters.  Statistically proven.

You can continue to act as Scoop's resident luddite though.  You're like the new Murff.  Congrats.
Title: Re: What will Sam's usage be next season?
Post by: Marcus92 on May 22, 2017, 01:16:30 PM
In this case, the stats tell us — or reinforce — a few things about Sam's freshman season:

1) Sam was one of the team's last offensive options (just 13.6% usage).
2) His offense was largely limited to 3-point shooting (67.8% of attempts from behind the arc).
3) He rarely got to the line (just 29 FTA in 32 games, last on the team even behind Matt Heldt).
4) He made the absolute most of those limited offensive opportunities (45.3% 3PT%, 127.8 offensive rating).

So what will change for 2017-18?

1) Four of the players that used more possessions than Sam (JaJuan, Luke, Katin and Duane) have graduated or transferred.
2) One or likely several players will have to make up the difference.
3) Sam has shown that he's capable inside the arc (51.5% from 2-point range).
4) His low turnover rate (10.8%) suggests he can be trusted with the ball and given more responsibility within the offense.
5) Because of Sam's shooting ability, opponents have to respect him everywhere he goes on the court, with or without the ball. If they're close-guarding him on the perimeter, that could mean more opportunities to drive, pick and roll, etc.

If Sam ups his usage to 18-19%, that suggests an offensive contribution at the Haanif Cheatham/Duane Wilson level — only much more efficient (with an ORtg still hopefully above 120). Without having seen Froling, Cain, John, Elliott or Eke, that's my baseline expectation for Sam going into the season.

I hope he can contribute even more than that. Like in the range of 20-23% usage, with an ORtg somewhere around 115-120 — a similar offensive contribution to Katin or Luke a year ago. In other words, I hope Sam can become one of our top 3-5 offensive contributors, after Markus and Andrew.

Logic tells me that's overly optimistic. But Sam exceeded every expectation I had for his freshman season. Plus, he's much more of a proven commodity than Cain, Elliott and company. Sam knows the offense. He's played a year alongside Markus, Andrew, Haanif and Matt. And he understands that sometimes, being a team player means stepping up and demanding the ball.

If not Sam, who else?
Title: Re: What will Sam's usage be next season?
Post by: brewcity77 on May 22, 2017, 01:16:37 PM
Oh, I'm sure they look at them.  But, watching opponent's games will tell them as much.  Sure Markus Howard has a high eFG%.  But that's because he makes a lot of 3s as they already know.  Opponents will try to move him off the line to make him less effective which would result in a lower eFG%.  Give me some significant examples of how advanced stats help coaches in actual games beyond what they already get from scouring those videos of past games and talking to other coaches, etc?

PS, free throws do matta in the grand scheme of things, if not in a general statistical sense.  Off hand given the recent Gaviitt Games news,, had Ric Cobb hit that FT against Purdue 1969, MU would have won that game and moved on in the NCAAs. Yah, yah..one can point to many things earlier in that game; but the game was lost on that shot.  It mattad!  Many, many example of that since then.

Dumb take, but congrats, you've earned this!

(http://www.theflatearthsociety.org/images/merchandise/flat_earth_membership_certificate.jpg)
Title: Re: What will Sam's usage be next season?
Post by: Jay Bee on May 22, 2017, 01:24:09 PM
Nukem, are you an MU alum?
Title: Re: What will Sam's usage be next season?
Post by: cheebs09 on May 22, 2017, 01:26:37 PM
Oh, I'm sure they look at them.  But, watching opponent's games will tell them as much.  Sure Markus Howard has a high eFG%.  But that's because he makes a lot of 3s as they already know.  Opponents will try to move him off the line to make him less effective which would result in a lower eFG%.  Give me some significant examples of how advanced stats help coaches in actual games beyond what they already get from scouring those videos of past games and talking to other coaches, etc?

PS, free throws do matta in the grand scheme of things, if not in a general statistical sense.  Off hand given the recent Gaviitt Games news,, had Ric Cobb hit that FT against Purdue 1969, MU would have won that game and moved on in the NCAAs. Yah, yah..one can point to many things earlier in that game; but the game was lost on that shot.  It mattad!  Many, many example of that since then.

Or they could quickly look at some advanced stats to learn a team's tendencies and then watch the film to see how they achieve those tendencies. That seems to be more efficient.

Plus, based on Paint Touches' work with Synergy, there are a ton of stats out there that we don't even look at that coaches are using to build game plans.
Title: Re: What will Sam's usage be next season?
Post by: TAMU, Knower of Ball on May 22, 2017, 02:18:33 PM
Oh, I'm sure they look at them.  But, watching opponent's games will tell them as much.

See,  I just have to look at scoops takes on who our best defenders are to know that the eye is not reliable.  Scoop listed Haanie, Duane,  and Luke as our best defenders. HC was average, Duane and Luke were two of our worst three. Our best defenders were actually Sammy and Katin. Maybe a coaches eye would be better but the average fan?  No way.
Title: Re: What will Sam's usage be next season?
Post by: Nukem2 on May 22, 2017, 02:19:11 PM
Or they could quickly look at some advanced stats to learn a team's tendencies and then watch the film to see how they achieve those tendencies. That seems to be more efficient.

Plus, based on Paint Touches' work with Synergy, there are a ton of stats out there that we don't even look at that coaches are using to build game plans.
Yeah, like the other team is known to play at a slow pace and we want to speed the game up.  Did I hear that over 50 years ago? 
Title: Re: What will Sam's usage be next season?
Post by: Nukem2 on May 22, 2017, 02:26:37 PM
See,  I just have to look at scoops takes on who our best defenders are to know that the eye is not reliable.  Scoop listed Haanie, Duane,  and Luke as our best defenders. HC was average, Duane and Luke were two of our worst three. Our best defenders were actually Sammy and Katin. Maybe a coaches eye would be better but the average fan?  No way.
Whatever the stats say, Katin was not a good defender.  He may have been better thane others on the team, but he sure had a lot of matador attempts and bigger guys could shoot over him.  Have you heard of the statistician who drowned in a river that averages 6inches in depth? 

Sure the advanced stats may help supplementally in organization for game planning, but they do nothing in-game for basketball.  As I asked someone earlier, give me a significant example of how advanced stats help a coach in-game?  They are nice for aficionados who want to analyze what happened in depth after a game or over a season.
Title: Re: What will Sam's usage be next season?
Post by: Marcus92 on May 22, 2017, 02:41:00 PM
As food for thought, consider Steve Novak's progression between his freshman and sophomore seasons:

2002-03
33 G
512 MIN (15.5 MPG)
12-24 2PT (50.0%)
55-109 3PT (50.5%)
31-33 FT (93.9%)
14.6% Usage
71.1% eFG%
143.5 ORtg
17 AST (0.5 APG, 6.1% ARate)
14.3% TORate
220 PTS (6.7 PPG)

2003-04
31 G
916 MPG (29.5 MPG)
29-83 2PT (34.9%)
89-207 3PT (43.0%)
62-68 FT (91.2%)
18.4% Usage
56.0% eFG%
120.6 ORtg
39 AST (1.3 APG, 9.2% ARate)
15.5% TORate
387 PTS (12.5 PPG)

Doubling his minutes had more to do with Steve's increased production than higher usage (14.6% to 18.4%). But he did take more than 3 times as many 2-pointers and upped his assist rate, suggesting a significantly larger role in the offense.

I was surprised to learn that Steve never exceeded 18.6% usage in his Marquette career. My view is that Sam has a more diverse, well-rounded game and can carry more of the offensive load. We'll see if that holds true.
Title: Re: What will Sam's usage be next season?
Post by: TAMU, Knower of Ball on May 22, 2017, 05:36:17 PM
Whatever the stats say, Katin was not a good defender.  He may have been better thane others on the team, but he sure had a lot of matador attempts and bigger guys could shoot over him.  Have you heard of the statistician who drowned in a river that averages 6inches in depth? 

Sure the advanced stats may help supplementally in organization for game planning, but they do nothing in-game for basketball.  As I asked someone earlier, give me a significant example of how advanced stats help a coach in-game?  They are nice for aficionados who want to analyze what happened in depth after a game or over a season.

I didn't say Katin was a good defender. I said he was second best on our team.  He was only average to above average when compared with the rest of division 1. Despite that,  most people here ranked Duane, HC, and a Luke above him despite HC being meh and the other two being abysmal. The eye test isn't reliable. Stats are always reliable... Provided they are calculated and interpreted correctly.... Which they often aren't.

I've never been a coach so I can't tell you a specific example.  I've been in pregame meetings before and I can tell you that they are absolutely used there. I'd imagine that they can be used in play calling. If I know a specific player has a terrible ppp against pick and roll plays,  I know what player to call the pick against. That theoretically could be picked up by the eye test but it can be observed instantly via advanced stats.

Add others have said,  both advanced stats and the eye test are best used together.
Title: Re: What will Sam's usage be next season?
Post by: Nukem2 on May 22, 2017, 06:18:46 PM
I didn't say Katin was a good defender. I said he was second best on our team.  He was only average to above average when compared with the rest of division 1. Despite that,  most people here ranked Duane, HC, and a Luke above him despite HC being meh and the other two being abysmal. The eye test isn't reliable. Stats are always reliable... Provided they are calculated and interpreted correctly.... Which they often aren't.

I've never been a coach so I can't tell you a specific example.  I've been in pregame meetings before and I can tell you that they are absolutely used there. I'd imagine that they can be used in play calling. If I know a specific player has a terrible ppp against pick and roll plays,  I know what player to call the pick against. That theoretically could be picked up by the eye test but it can be observed instantly via advanced stats.

Add others have said,  both advanced stats and the eye test are best used together.
Advanced stats identify pick and roll plays?   That's not a stat.  That's an observation.
Title: Re: What will Sam's usage be next season?
Post by: Jay Bee on May 22, 2017, 06:28:00 PM
Advanced stats identify pick and roll plays?   That's not a stat.  That's an observation.

Oh, it's a stat, bud.
Title: Re: What will Sam's usage be next season?
Post by: brewcity77 on May 22, 2017, 06:39:11 PM
Advanced stats identify pick and roll plays?   That's not a stat.  That's an observation.

No, it's not. When analyzed dozens of times, that's a stat. Just like eFG% or rebounding numbers.
Title: Re: What will Sam's usage be next season?
Post by: TAMU, Knower of Ball on May 22, 2017, 07:18:35 PM
Advanced stats identify pick and roll plays?   That's not a stat.  That's an observation.

No, they identify how many points per possession a defender allows when a pick and roll is run against them.  Will help a coach identify who to call the pick on and who to set up the roll for.
Title: Re: What will Sam's usage be next season?
Post by: wildbillsb on May 22, 2017, 07:43:42 PM
omg.....This message replies to almost all the posts at this time.  WTF are you people tallking about?
I don't care the ROI is, i only care that that my beloved alma mater is gaining in making this world better to those whose who follow, and closer to what  achieving the future that what is next to come.

Thanks

bu
Title: Re: What will Sam's usage be next season?
Post by: Slim on May 22, 2017, 07:55:05 PM
So, like FT% no Matta usage by itself no matta. It is a useless stat unless efficiency is examined. Also I find it interesting that turnovers increase your usage %. Therefore usage is useless without evaluating turnover rate as well.

I appreciate these discussions on advanced stats.
Title: Re: What will Sam's usage be next season?
Post by: Stretchdeltsig on May 22, 2017, 09:14:46 PM

The chances of Sam Hauser making the NBA, much less being a lottery pick, are quite remote.  Very skillful, but not terribly athletic.

I mean, do you *watch* the NBA?
Disagree.  Sam is very smooth.  Remember that he was a freshman last year.  Sam can shoot, rebound and at effortless ball.  He is the kind of 6'8" player that you can win with.  Thank God he is a Warrior.  Love his game.
Title: Re: What will Sam's usage be next season?
Post by: MUDPT on May 22, 2017, 10:21:49 PM
I actually think his Ortg will take a step back and will be around 112.  Katin range.
Title: Re: What will Sam's usage be next season?
Post by: Marcus92 on May 22, 2017, 11:06:32 PM
I actually think his Ortg will take a step back and will be around 112.  Katin range.

Could be. But I think Sam is a truly elite shooter on another level from Katin — whose career 3-point percentage is 37%, with a career high of 38.6% at USC.

Sam, meanwhile, shot 45.3% from 3-point range in his freshman year, among the Top 10 single-season performances in Marquette history. Sam and Markus could even challenge Steve Novak's all-time school records.
Title: Re: What will Sam's usage be next season?
Post by: bilsu on May 23, 2017, 07:43:19 AM
https://rotogrinders.com/lessons/what-is-usage-rate-919038
This is a very flawed statistic. Haanif cutting down his turnovers reduced his usage rate.
Title: Re: What will Sam's usage be next season?
Post by: TAMU, Knower of Ball on May 23, 2017, 07:53:42 AM
This is a very flawed statistic. Haanif cutting down his turnovers reduced his usage rate.

Why does that make it flawed?
Title: Re: What will Sam's usage be next season?
Post by: Jay Bee on May 23, 2017, 09:55:51 AM
This is a very flawed statistic. Haanif cutting down his turnovers reduced his usage rate.

Flawed? No, it means the stat is working appropriately - it measures possessions used by an individual. If you turn it over, you used a possession

BTW, Haanif's %shots went from 19.5% to 17.0%
Title: Re: What will Sam's usage be next season?
Post by: Juan Anderson's Mixtape on May 23, 2017, 10:05:32 AM
Why does that make it flawed?

I wouldn't say flawed. I'd say impractical.

I would change usage to get assists and turnovers out of there.  Make it shots and trips to FT line only.  Make assists and turnovers stand alone. Usage would be renamed; I'll call it "shots up percentage".

Example: A player with 27% usage, 18% assist rate, and 14% turnover rate would become 18.3% shots up, 4.9% assist rate, 3.8% turnover rate.

Now you know exactly what happened. Per 100 possessions, the player had 18.3 shots+shooting fouls, 4.9 assists, and 3.8 turnovers. I think that is clearer than saying 27 times resulted in one of 3 things, and 18% of those 27 times there was an assist, and 14% of those 27 times was a turnover, leaving you to still figure out that 68% of 27 times a player shot/went to FT line.
Title: Re: What will Sam's usage be next season?
Post by: Jay Bee on May 23, 2017, 10:08:16 AM
I wouldn't say flawed. I'd say impractical.

I would change usage to get assists and turnovers out of there.  Make it shots and trips to FT line only.  Make assists and turnovers stand alone. Usage would be renamed; I'll call it "shots up percentage".

Example: A player with 27% usage, 18% assist rate, and 14% turnover rate would become 18.3% shots up, 4.9% assist rate, 3.8% turnover rate.

Now you know exactly what happened. Per 100 possessions, the player had 18.3 shots+shooting fouls, 4.9 assists, and 3.8 turnovers. I think that is clearer than saying 27 times resulted in one of 3 things, and 18% of those 27 times there was an assist, and 14% of those 27 times was a turnover, leaving you to still figure out that 62% of 27 times a player shot/went to FT line.

%shots is a separate stat... as are assist rate, turnover rate, or%, etc. usage brings it together, similar to ORtg. ORtg / usage combo view is especially helpful. From there, you drill down into the components to better understand
Title: Re: What will Sam's usage be next season?
Post by: Juan Anderson's Mixtape on May 23, 2017, 11:50:48 AM
%shots is a separate stat... as are assist rate, turnover rate, or%, etc. usage brings it together, similar to ORtg. ORtg / usage combo view is especially helpful. From there, you drill down into the components to better understand

Thanks JB. Very helpful to know and I appreciate the info. I'll have to look at more stats to grow my understanding of the big picture of the stat picture.
Title: Re: What will Sam's usage be next season?
Post by: MU82 on May 23, 2017, 02:09:34 PM
I wouldn't say flawed. I'd say impractical.

I would change usage to get assists and turnovers out of there.  Make it shots and trips to FT line only.  Make assists and turnovers stand alone. Usage would be renamed; I'll call it "shots up percentage".

Example: A player with 27% usage, 18% assist rate, and 14% turnover rate would become 18.3% shots up, 4.9% assist rate, 3.8% turnover rate.

Now you know exactly what happened. Per 100 possessions, the player had 18.3 shots+shooting fouls, 4.9 assists, and 3.8 turnovers. I think that is clearer than saying 27 times resulted in one of 3 things, and 18% of those 27 times there was an assist, and 14% of those 27 times was a turnover, leaving you to still figure out that 62% of 27 times a player shot/went to FT line.

My head just exploded.

Going back to PPG, RPG and APG. If I really wanna get bold, A/TO ratio and eFG%!

But don't worry. I'll never mention FTs again!!!
Title: Re: What will Sam's usage be next season?
Post by: bilsu on May 23, 2017, 05:28:52 PM
I wouldn't say flawed. I'd say impractical.

I would change usage to get assists and turnovers out of there.  Make it shots and trips to FT line only.  Make assists and turnovers stand alone. Usage would be renamed; I'll call it "shots up percentage".

Example: A player with 27% usage, 18% assist rate, and 14% turnover rate would become 18.3% shots up, 4.9% assist rate, 3.8% turnover rate.

Now you know exactly what happened. Per 100 possessions, the player had 18.3 shots+shooting fouls, 4.9 assists, and 3.8 turnovers. I think that is clearer than saying 27 times resulted in one of 3 things, and 18% of those 27 times there was an assist, and 14% of those 27 times was a turnover, leaving you to still figure out that 68% of 27 times a player shot/went to FT line.
However, it still does not count the plays where Sam draws a defender out opening up the middle for someone else. Sam may not even touch the ball, but in reality he is being used within a designed play. The statistic ignors players like Sam who help the team in other ways and rewards players like JJJ and Reinhardt, who were going to shoot no matter what. I am gald Sam is back and JJJ and Reinhardt are gone.
Title: Re: What will Sam's usage be next season?
Post by: brewcity77 on May 23, 2017, 05:36:30 PM
However, it still does not count the plays where Sam draws a defender out opening up the middle for someone else. Sam may not even touch the ball, but in reality he is being used within a designed play. The statistic ignors players like Sam who help the team in other ways and rewards players like JJJ and Reinhardt, who were going to shoot no matter what. I am gald Sam is back and JJJ and Reinhardt are gone.

Hmm...except during conference play, both Reinhardt (19th) and JJ (25th) were top-25 in the league in assist percentage. Only Howard and Rowsey were better on our team. Sam wasn't ranked.

I'm not saying Sam doesn't do a lot of little things, but both JJ and Katin were also doing things to make their teammates better. I'd love another year of Reinhardt, especially.
Title: Re: What will Sam's usage be next season?
Post by: TAMU, Knower of Ball on May 23, 2017, 08:08:01 PM
However, it still does not count the plays where Sam draws a defender out opening up the middle for someone else. Sam may not even touch the ball, but in reality he is being used within a designed play. The statistic ignors players like Sam who help the team in other ways and rewards players like JJJ and Reinhardt, who were going to shoot no matter what. I am gald Sam is back and JJJ and Reinhardt are gone.

I could be reading it wrong, but it seems like you think high usage is good and low usage is bad. That's not the case. Usage tells you about a player's role not how good they are. If usage reflected everything you are suggesting than every player would have a usage of 100%. Every player has a role on every play even if they weren't apparently involved.

And as Brew pointed out, you have selective memory on JJJ and Katin. They were some of the best assistmen on the team.
Title: Re: What will Sam's usage be next season?
Post by: Silkk the Shaka on June 01, 2017, 05:17:54 PM
Sam was used as a floor spacer. So considering he took about two 2-point shots per game, I'd say his usage rate was sky high.
Title: Re: What will Sam's usage be next season?
Post by: Autoengineer on June 02, 2017, 07:34:42 PM
His play time will decrease as I see an emphasis moving forward on defence.... Meaning more athletic players. 
Title: Re: What will Sam's usage be next season?
Post by: wadesworld on June 02, 2017, 07:37:43 PM
His play time will decrease as I see an emphasis moving forward on defence.... Meaning more athletic players.

Agree to disagree. Think he leads the team in minutes next year. Also think he's plenty athletic.
Title: Re: What will Sam's usage be next season?
Post by: Autoengineer on June 02, 2017, 07:40:43 PM
Agree to disagree. Think he leads the team in minutes next year. Also think he's plenty athletic.

I think you only need to look at the players coming in and who he's looking at in 2018 to see that Wojo knows what this team's weakness is and how he intends to address it. 
Title: Re: What will Sam's usage be next season?
Post by: Jay Bee on June 02, 2017, 07:49:09 PM
His play time will decrease as I see an emphasis moving forward on defence.... Meaning more athletic players.

Not sure what defence means, but disagree
Title: Re: What will Sam's usage be next season?
Post by: Newsdreams on June 02, 2017, 07:55:52 PM
Not sure what defence means, but disagree
It is a fence in Delaware
Title: Re: What will Sam's usage be next season?
Post by: wadesworld on June 02, 2017, 07:59:27 PM
I think you only need to look at the players coming in and who he's looking at in 2018 to see that Wojo knows what this team's weakness is and how he intends to address it.

Yeah he's adding some muscle and athleticism. That doesn't mean that one of his three best returning players is going to see less time because he brought in some 18 year old athletes. That'd be like saying Giannis's minutes are going to go down if the Bucks draft a shooter and add a shooter in free agency and then saying "We see what the Bucks are addresssing this offseason and it's not a skillset Giannis has."
Title: Re: What will Sam's usage be next season?
Post by: Autoengineer on June 03, 2017, 12:18:44 AM
Not sure what defence means, but disagree

HA.  This site's own spellchecker changed my correct spelling to that!  That's pretty funny actually...  A MU basketball forum website doesn't recognize the word "defense"!

Title: Re: What will Sam's usage be next season?
Post by: Autoengineer on June 03, 2017, 12:24:55 AM
Yeah he's adding some muscle and athleticism. That doesn't mean that one of his three best returning players is going to see less time because he brought in some 18 year old athletes. That'd be like saying Giannis's minutes are going to go down if the Bucks draft a shooter and add a shooter in free agency and then saying "We see what the Bucks are addresssing this offseason and it's not a skillset Giannis has."

So you're comparing Sam to Giannis in terms of benefit to their respective teams?
Title: Re: What will Sam's usage be next season?
Post by: Juan Anderson's Mixtape on June 03, 2017, 06:48:47 AM
HA.  This site's own spellchecker changed my correct spelling to that!  That's pretty funny actually...  A MU basketball forum website doesn't recognize the word "defense"!

I just thought you were using the queen's English.
Title: Re: What will Sam's usage be next season?
Post by: GGGG on June 03, 2017, 08:52:03 AM
I think you only need to look at the players coming in and who he's looking at in 2018 to see that Wojo knows what this team's weakness is and how he intends to address it. 


Sam is more than just a shooter.  He is a very smart and instinctive player.  I have no idea if those adjectives will apply to Cain at the college level, but if he can come in and steal significant minutes from Sam, I will be surprised - and happy because that means we are that much stronger.
Title: Re: What will Sam's usage be next season?
Post by: HoopsterBC on June 03, 2017, 09:18:07 AM
Before anybody gets to excited about Cain, he looks like a skinnier JJJ.  Sam who is not the biggest guy physically will still play power forward next year, the
following year with Morrow on the team, then Sam will play the 3.  I see Cain getting minutes at the 2 and 3.  I can see starters as Rowsey, Howard, Cheatham,
Hauser and Heldt.  Cheatham may play his way in or out of the line-up.  In that case,  Cain or Anim will get a chance, Elliott or Cain at the 2.  I have no idea where
Froling plays.  He looked slow initially but after losing 30 to 40 pounds, he might be a different player.  He will for sure back up Held, hopefully he can play some 4
as well.  Eke is the wild card.
Title: Re: What will Sam's usage be next season?
Post by: fjm on June 03, 2017, 10:08:46 AM
Before anybody gets to excited about Cain, he looks like a skinnier JJJ.  Sam who is not the biggest guy physically will still play power forward next year, the
following year with Morrow on the team, then Sam will play the 3.  I see Cain getting minutes at the 2 and 3.  I can see starters as Rowsey, Howard, Cheatham,
Hauser and Heldt.  Cheatham may play his way in or out of the line-up.  In that case,  Cain or Anim will get a chance, Elliott or Cain at the 2.  I have no idea where
Froling plays.  He looked slow initially but after losing 30 to 40 pounds, he might be a different player.  He will for sure back up Held, hopefully he can play some 4
as well.  Eke is the wild card.

It will be good to get Theo some early season minutes while Harry is still waiting out the transfer.